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The dog that didn't bark

March 22nd, 2003

The war is only two days old, but it’s already clear that its central rationale is fatally flawed. If Saddam’s weapons of mass destruction represented a threat to the US under any circumstances, they would already have been used, against US forces or against Israel.

The absence of an attack on Israel is particularly striking. US forces are already seizing possible bases for Scud attacks in Western Iraq (finding no Scuds apparently) so the opportunity for such an attack will be over very shortly. There is no reason why Saddam should refrain from such an attack except that he lacks any capacity. Similarly, the Iraqi forces in Southern Iraq are throwing everything they have at Kuwait. This clearly doesn’t include WMDs and, despite early reports, apparently doesn’t include Scuds either.

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