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Let’s hear it for the lawyers

September 8th, 2004

It’s going to be a long campaign, and many people will be glad of the diversion provided by the football finals. And, for me at least, the news has all been good on this front. Alastair Lynch is making a good recovery from his hamstring injury, and Brisbane’s crack lawyers got Jonathan Brown off on a technicality last night. Nothing is certain in sport or politics, but, with a full-strength team, Brisbane are odds-on to win a fourth straight premiership (Centrebet is paying $1.63, and this time I think the markets have it right).

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  1. Don Wigan
    September 8th, 2004 at 08:02 | #1

    Yes, a wizard result. Actually I thought he was a bit stiff to be sent up anyway to what wasn’t really more than a meelee wrestle (which normally warrants just a fine).

    With his record, however, the commission would’ve had no option but to rub him out if found guilty – so for once, the loophole lawyers accomplished something positive.

    Brisbane should do it, if Lynch and Brown are fit. Observa will be cheering for Port, and they’ll give you a good run, but the two big guys will make the difference.

  2. d
    September 8th, 2004 at 10:39 | #2

    I have a confession to make. I’m very nationalist about footy- I’ll support any VICTORIAN team against Lions or Weagles or whatever, EVEN COLLINGWOOD.

    But it doesnt look to good for me this year so I’m in a quandary – Port Adelaide maybe!
    But it’s much better than talking about Jonnie and Lacker

  3. derrida derider
    September 8th, 2004 at 12:40 | #3

    I knew a bloke once who’d lived for a while as a professional hustler. One of his specialities was private bets on big football matches – he’d find a rabid supporter of the home team and bet against him. The reason is that people, even very clever ones, always unconsciously let their hopes influence their expectations (rather than the sensible approach of doing it the other way round). He generally got a generous points spread out of them.

    That John, a rabid BL supporter, thinks $1.63 is fair value is to me prima facie evidence that it’s not. Similarly, assuming most punters with Centrebet are working class and tend to be Labor supporters, if I was betting with Centrebet on the election I think you’d get better value betting on the coalition.

  4. September 8th, 2004 at 14:29 | #4

    I’m a rabid Adelaide Crows supporter and I think $1.63 is pretty close to the mark.

    You might assume that most punters at Centrebet are working class, but there’s plenty of big fish round the minnows, and some of them are betting in $100k licks. I will make a Scientific Wild-Ass Guess and suggest they are not boilermakers.

  5. RoD
    September 8th, 2004 at 15:09 | #5

    AFL is now considering appealing against its own tribunal to have the Brown charges relaid in a different guise! A-holes.

    Luke Power got an elbow in the back of the head from Murray and Guerra tried to send Hadley’s head into the Valley – neither of them have been charged with anything!

    Just typical. A suspicious person may suggest Demetriou has a bucket-load of cash on the other five Premiership contenders.

  6. matt byrne
    September 8th, 2004 at 16:25 | #6

    Hey quiggin,

    NSW won the state of origin in league and if Sydney win this week we’ll probably play the BEARS in the Final.

    I’m an optimist, I can see a NSW double!

    See ya at the final!!

  7. September 8th, 2004 at 20:48 | #7

    If I was the AFL I would be praying for something dreadful to happen to enough Bears players – measles or shingles perhaps – to make the game interesting.

    Otherwise.. procession ladies and gents, procession.. but I too feel my South Australian heritage stirring in the least scarred ventricle of my heart.

  8. September 8th, 2004 at 22:55 | #8

    What odds on the lions winning next year as well?
    Can’t see who is going to stop them.

  9. observa
    September 9th, 2004 at 01:39 | #9

    Oh ye of little faith! First of all if I were Chocko, I’d come out and offer to play Port’s prelim final at the MCG, in answer to Lethal’s whinging. Nothing like getting off on the right foot with the mind games. My reasoning would be that if you’re not good enough to win a prelim at the G, then you weren’t good enough to win the big one there. Presents an extra challenge to the lads, if Brissy or the AFL decide to take up the offer. The general AFL public would immediately warm to such a noble gesture. Hearts and minds Chocko m’boy.

    As to a match up with Brisbane in a GF, I’d start with Tredrea on Brown and throw Chad Cornes into the forward lines to run Leppitsch about. If Tredders stops the flow to Lynch, he won’t be much use. Kane Cornes to tag Akker and every other man for himself. Port could have the advantage of ruck strength to nullify Brisbane’s on ballers. They’re not so lethal when the ball is 50/50 in the middle and they can’t run forward of the ball with confidence.

    Don’t be so sure Brisbane are a shoo-in for their 4th GF. Sport’s a funny thing when you’re a winner. One day you go out there assuming it’s going to happen as per usual and it doesn’t. Brisbane haven’t struck that feeling in finals yet. Port could get off to a blinder start and keep going with the ferocity of belief that Brisbane are always going to come back at them. It might surprise everyone if they don’t. Most GFs are blowouts as one side gets their pecker up and the other side chases guernseys and gets that sinking feeling. OTOH, Brisbane know that Port has had the wood on them in the cliffhhangers. If the lads win, you can rule us out of even making the start of the season, let alone the final 8 next year.

  10. September 9th, 2004 at 02:35 | #10

    First of all if I were Chocko, I’d come out and offer to play Port’s prelim final at the MCG, in answer to Lethal’s whinging. Nothing like getting off on the right foot with the mind games. My reasoning would be that if you’re not good enough to win a prelim at the G, then you weren’t good enough to win the big one there.

    What if they’re not, though? Williams would lose his job. It’s a MASSIVE advantage for an interstate side to play at their home ground.

  11. Don Wigan
    September 9th, 2004 at 07:39 | #11

    Observa, best of luck with the rest of the finals now that you’ve finally jumped the first hurdle.

    For somebody who brings some welcome scepticism to economic and political thought, you’re very buoyant and it’s good to see. I suppose it’s natural for Port fans, who can be almost as unbearable as Collingwood. As a Crow man, I don’t begrudge Port any success this time around.

    Re the rest of the year and next season, remember the wisdom of John Button ( a Geelong man),
    “I don’t know if we can yet cope with success.”

    The only good thing about being out of it is that I can enjoy the outcome with some detachment. I don’t begrudge any of them left any success. Enjoy!

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