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Experts and interests

June 13th, 2005

A question that’s often raised in relation to public policy issues involving science is whether conflicts of interest matter. For example, does it matter if scientists who publish reports suggesting that the dangers of smoking are overstated turn out to be funded by tobacco companies? Common sense suggests that it matters, but a lot of commentators, often with a vague recollection of classes in elementary logic, suggest that this is an ad hominem criticism and that the only thing that is relevant is the argument, not who makes it. You can see a defence of this position from Elizabeth Whelan at Spiked here[1] (hat tip, Jennifer Marohasy in the comments to this interesitng Catallaxy post on values and science.

I’ll argue that common sense is right here.

As an illustration, suppose you are considering buying a new car, and you come across an “independent non-profit” site called “Car Buyers Guide”, which gives advice on models A and B. Here are some possible reasons the site might advance for buying A rather than B. Assume that you can confirm that all factual claims made are correct, but you don’t know anything about cars yourself.

1. The fuel required for model B is not available in Australia, so it cannot be driven here, unlike A. Therefore you should choose A

2. We consulted ten leading experts. All recommended A

3. We looked at ten different criteria and A was superior on each of them

If you rely exclusively on syllogistic logic you ought to find argument 1 convincing (with the auxiliary premise that a car that can be driven is always better than one that cannot). On the other had, reason 2 is a standard fallacy: an argument from authority. Reason three is also logically invalid; the fact that A is superior on some grounds does not mean that it is superior on most or all grounds.

In practice, though, syllogistic logic is not very helpful. Very few decisions can be supported by watertight logical arguments like 1. In practice, we ought to find reasons like 2 and 3 pretty convincing. Assuming that the 10 experts are selected at random from a suitable population, the probability that most experts actually favour B is less than 1 in 1000. And if the 10 criteria are selected sensibly, it’s highly unlikely that consideration of omitted criteria will change the balance.

You can either accept this kind of reasoning or become an expert on the subject yourself. Since the latter course is feasible in only a few cases, inevitably you have to rely on the former most of the time.

Now suppose you find that the “Car Buyers Guide” is actually funded by the makers of Model A. Reason 1 is still logically valid and compelling. But reasons 2 and 3 now have very little force. Unless experts unanimously favour B, it shouldn’t be hard to line up 10 who favor A (or even to induce some who are neutral to endorse A). And similarly, it’s nearly always possible to find some criteria on which one option is better.

Exactly the same issues arise in relation to the dangers (or safety) of smoking. The evidence here is statistical, so if you’re looking for logical certainty you won’t find it. And it’s always possible to find some benefits from smoking and some qualified people willing to give a low estimate of risks. But if you rely on the general judgement of independent experts, you’ll reach the conclusion that smoking (direct or passive) is likely to shorten your life and damage your health.

The counterargument, from Whelan and others is that “All scientists have personal ideologies”, and therefore that scientific work should be evaluated on its merits, without regard to source. This sounds appealing until we ask the question “evaluated by whom?” The only people who can usefully do the evaluation are qualified scientists and the only way we can rely on their evaluation is if we believe them to be free of conflicts of interests.

If you accept Whelan’s argument, you end up in a position of complete agnosticism about anything you can’t know from direct experience. She denies this, saying that “If the Tobacco Institute had been funded by the Easter Bunny, its pronouncements would still have been scientifically outrageous, because the controversy had long since ended over whether cigarettes are the primary cause of premature, preventable death ” but, by definition, controversy only ends when one side gives up. (The exposure of the fact that most of the defenders of the safety of smoking were recipients of tobacco money was one of the things that helped induce them to give up.)

As far as the relevant scientific communities are concerned the controversy over evolution has ended and the controversy about climate change has resolved most of the key issues (for example, that warming is taking place and that human activity is a contributor), as has the controversy about the safety of consuming GM foods, but that doesn’t stop people claiming otherwise. And the tobacco lobby only retreated from the glaringly false claim that smoking is harmless to the claim (absurd if you accept that direct smoking causes cancer, but harder to disprove) that passive smoking is harmless. Unless you want to become an expert in biology, geology, climate science, clinical medicine and statisics, among other disciplines, you’ll never be able to resolve these disputes without relying, at some point, on expert judgement.

Obviously, there’s an element of circularity here. We not only have to trust scientists to give us the best advice, but we also have to trust them to tell us who the relevant scientists are. The big argument for accepting this is the undeniable success of the scientific enterprise as a whole, and its demonstrated capacity for correcting error. This can be contrasted with the demonstrated capacity of interest groups to maintain propositions that suit their interests in the face of strong, indeed overwhelming, evidence to the contrary.

fn1. For the fascinating history of Spiked see this Jason Soon post. For Whelan’s own background see Sourcewatch.

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  1. S Brid
    June 19th, 2005 at 17:14 | #1

    Tim

    This is what you offered above:

    “But I’ll give you 5-4 on 2006″

    I offered you 5:5. There are better odds that you offered me! And you teach kids?
    The 5K donation is contingent on our bet. It’s not exclusive. However I will not let you slip away from this.
    Let’s go 5:4 or 5:3 which ever you think is fair (judging from the exchange above I won’t be surprised with your choice), seeing you keep moving the odds against yourself and for yourself (Confused is more like it).

    I part with $5,000 if I lose.
    You part with either $3,000 or $4,000 if I win (let me guess which one you pick or is this the wild card?. So we measure the same month in 2006 as in 1996.
    Proceeds for both parties go to the ALS.

    Edited to remove lengthy and irrelevant side disputes. These can be taken up at Tim Lambert’s blog if desired (JQ)

  2. Simonjm
    June 19th, 2005 at 23:17 | #2

    Have a look Morgo K’s blog for on Creation or evolution debate at http://webdiary.smh.com.au/index.html

    Just shows Ph D’s and Hon’s in science and intelligence are any guard against extreme confirmation bias and denial.

  3. abb1
    June 20th, 2005 at 01:07 | #3

    test

  4. June 20th, 2005 at 01:32 | #4

    Brid, here is how “betting” works: If you win, I pay you money. You can do whatever you like with that money, including donating it to the charity of your choice. If I win, you pay me money. I can do whatever I want with that money, including donating it to the charity of my choice.

    If you’re up for a genuine bet, fine. But it seems to me that you just wasting my time.

  5. June 20th, 2005 at 03:59 | #5

    The bet would appear to be “if I win, you donate to charity, if you win I will donate to charity”… with the added point by Brid of “actually, even if I win, I’ll still donate to charity”.

    The bet might not be your cup of tea… but it seems like a genuine bet.

    And donations to the Australian Libertarian Society (ALS) can be sent to… :)

  6. S Brid
    June 20th, 2005 at 10:38 | #6

    John :
    ALS is a disease. A pretty bad.

    Tim
    That’s the deal. Neither you or I get the money. It wasn’t your deal in the first place. What’s wrong, you would rather get the money than the charity.
    And please don’t try to explain betting when it seems you are confused with odds.

  7. S Brid
    June 20th, 2005 at 16:11 | #7

    Tim;

    Let’s do this despite your confusion

    1. So far you offered 5:4 but wouldn’t accept accept 5:5! Ok let’s let this go.
    2. I offered to donate 5k along my winnings or loss but you felt that gave me unlimited odds??? I therefore accepted your your point that that if I gave away my money it would affect your odds. That’s a new one on me so ok let’s let this go as well.
    3. lastly you want to be able to donate the money to whichever charity you want. Ok then I will agree with that providing that it is for a needy cause. Ok let’s let this go as well as you obviously don’t think ALS is a needy cause (John H, it’s Lou Gerhig disease)

    So I have finally narrowed everything down to getting this bet going, right?
    Assuming you no longer have any issues. The bet is 2006 vs 1996 sat temp. We clear the bet on Dec 31 2006 , or there abouts.
    I will send you a copy of my charity chit. You do the same as I will send you a copy of my solicitors dets. for where you send your charity chit.

    Agreed? Finally, or am I still not serious?

    shall do 5:4 my favour as you orginally suggested, 5:5, 5:4 your favor or 5:3 to cheapen it up for you?

    Let me know any of those odds are ok with me. Hoping its all ok with you finally.

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