Home > Oz Politics > Who wants Abbott PM?

Who wants Abbott PM?

February 18th, 2013

We’ve had quite a few debates here about the Labor leadership. While there are plenty of issues, there is one that, at this point in the cycle, trumps all the others. Of the two serious contenders, who is more likely to save Australia from the disaster of an Abbott-led coalition government? The answer to this question is so clear-cut that I find it impossible to believe anyone would dispute it: Julia Gillard has almost no chance of victory at this point, while Kevin Rudd has a chance. There’s certainly room for debate about how good Rudd’s chances are, but none, I think, as regards Gillard’s. And, whatever the stylistic differences, in substantive terms Gillard’s agenda is the one she inherited from Rudd.

The question now is whether we will have another three years to implement that agenda, or whether we have a Newman-style slash and burn assault on the public sector, the environment, science, women’s rights and, of course, the working class. The only thing likely to stop that is an immediate change of leadership.

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  1. TerjeP
    February 18th, 2013 at 14:15 | #1

    You really think a change of leadership would impress the public?

  2. alister
    February 18th, 2013 at 14:16 | #2

    Well, yes, except that apparently no small number of his caucus colleagues hate him with a passion. The only thing that makes sense to me is that (just) over half of the Parliamentary Labor Party hate Rudd so much that they’d rather lose their seats, and lose government in a wipe-out that’ll make 1996 pale in comparison.

    This thought doesn’t fill me with confidence in the political sense of the ALP. An Abbott government will make the Howard government look moderate and sensible.

  3. aj
    February 18th, 2013 at 14:18 | #3

    not Rudd. Surely some other person would get a honeymoon that Rudd enjoys. Labor only has a chance if Gillard abdicates to someone already approved by caucus and has no communication problems.

  4. February 18th, 2013 at 14:19 | #4

    Slash and burn when the public sector is already detracting from growth and nominal GDP growing is below trend and still falling.

    Only Steve Kates is that barking mad!

  5. John Quiggin
    February 18th, 2013 at 14:22 | #5

    @TerjeP

    Given that the remaining alternative would be Abbott, yes. In fact, I think there’s a chance the Libs would also switch in response

  6. kevin1
    February 18th, 2013 at 14:24 | #6

    The question for those who reject Rudd with a passion is: do they accept that the price of their indulgence is an Abbott govt and all the reactionary policies that means? From what direction can the resurrection of Gillard come?

    The Australian people apparently have bought a simplistic narrative of failure and chaos, and there are many good policies which they take for granted, driven by false economic facts and insecurity. How do you respond to the “irrational” element amongst voters which seems to be high?

    There’s no “principle” involved in dumping Rudd for Gillard, as there ain’t much difference policy-wise. As leaders, I think we have found that he is less beholden to special interests (eg. mining, factional influence), arguably more visionary and intellectual, and doesn’t carry the baggage of distrust she created for herself.

    If Rudd can be dragged into a more colleagiate style, which shouldn’t be impossible the second time around, it’s the only chance to win.

  7. Mr Denmore
    February 18th, 2013 at 14:27 | #7

    I agree with Professor Quiggin. They can’t do any worse. They’re heading for a thumping. Rudd at least commands a fair degree of popularity in the community and some residual legitimacy as en elected PM that Gillard never had. Yes, the Libs have all the videos ready to go of current Labor ministers giving Kevin a frank character assessment. But Rudd still possesses the ability to cut through and as far as the wider public goes, he is far preferred to Abbott. The hard heads int he party would be well advised to get on with it ASAP. The sooner they do it, the faster the focus turns to Abbott. And I agree that if Rudd returns, the media speculation will turn to how to get rid of Tony.

  8. February 18th, 2013 at 14:38 | #8

    Hanging on to JG shows most Members don’t genuinely care about the welfare of the public. They’re driven by tribal loyalty or pay-back. The March of Folly.

    Even the 3rd option where JG steps down voluntarily in favour of a third party would be superior to the status quo.

  9. PeterH
    February 18th, 2013 at 15:04 | #9

    Alan Davies above puts it well: The March of Folly. Tuchman talked about the astounding boneheadedness of certain people in power in the face of ineluctable events, and the parliamentary ALP seem to be caught up in the same.

    Although of course if Rudd does return, wouldn’t there have to be a massive clear out of current ministers? As far as I can recall there were very few of them that missed the chance to tell us all how dreadful he was as PM.

  10. Swing Required
    February 18th, 2013 at 15:06 | #10

    ‘Gillard has almost no chance’. Hello, certainty (almost) in politics at last.

    Well, she has some things in her favour, even if economic facts no longer count. She’s had every poll bar one putting her between 49 and 52% at some stage recently. So, people have thought of voting for her. She has Tony Abbott as Ol, a person over 60% of women have problems with. There’s been no publicity at all about the damage to our pockets to be wreaked by the Opposition. 2 kids at high school, one at primary> That’s the best part of $2,000 gone.

    Tax-free threshold reduced? Hundreds of dollars more. Get rid of the carbon tax? An in your dreams reduction of a few hundred dollars at most, but a real reduction of family allowance and pensions.

    She can look forward to the Opposition hiding their policies and then not being able to authentically cost them.

    Against this, she has a media magnate out to get her, so she has a tough job, but politics is changeable quickly and 7 months is a long, long time.

    Is Mtr Abbott likely to be elected? yes, of course, but saying the PM has (almost) no chance is just a bit of a stretch at this time.

  11. Swing Required
    February 18th, 2013 at 15:08 | #11

    Sorry, that should read 48% to 50%.

  12. February 18th, 2013 at 15:09 | #12

    Good grief: PrQ once again can’t resist joining in on the self fulfilling prophecy.

    This is not helping your cause. (And I want to avoid an Abbott government too.)

  13. Savvas Tzionis
    February 18th, 2013 at 15:34 | #13

    Only if Gillard resigns.

  14. Michael S.
    February 18th, 2013 at 15:37 | #14

    John Quiggin :
    @TerjeP
    Given that the remaining alternative would be Abbott, yes. In fact, I think there’s a chance the Libs would also switch in response

    Even if we only get spared PM Abbot by way of PM Turnbull it’s a big argument for the Ruddster. The difference between a Baillieu and a Newman is pretty significant.

  15. Katz
    February 18th, 2013 at 15:41 | #15

    The Libs have a dirt file full of denunciations of Rudd uttered by just about every surviving ALP heavy. And the all said it. That’s a lot of baggage for the ALP to carry into the election.

    On the other hand, maybe Rudd could still do better than Gillard despite that baggage. If so, then God help us all.

    At this point the best that the ALP can hope for is that whoever leads them come September, the best that can be expected is that Abbott will be prevented from achieving a working majority in the Senate.

    I think that Rudd is more likely to achieve that Phyrric victory than Gillard.

  16. February 18th, 2013 at 15:41 | #16

    Like John Quiggin, I prefer Rudd to Gillard. However, the public reaction to the dumping of a sitting Prime Minister showed how appalled they were. I would not recommend it again.

    I’m not going to provide evidence on Abbott’s lunacy but it should be pretty clear by now. So despite the press gallery and polling saying Abbott’s victory is all but assured, I would dispute that. I see no indication of it outside the polls and self-indulgent media. It is important to remember the larger masses have not paid any attention to electioneering yet.

    Except for the fact it would fuel leadership challenge bias again by the self-indulgent media groups and partisan pundits I would recommend reinstalling Rudd to the leadership group say as Deputy PM – Swan can keep Treasury. It is the only option I can see for Gillard to save face. Her poor personal polling is for removing Rudd and then substantially watering down all the policies underway quite significantly and we can see how that turned out with the MRRT. You can’t do that after saying the “government had lost its way” and then continue on the exact same path except with much weaker policy and legislation. This a clear cut indication Gillard government has lost its way but as I said above, it would be inappropriate to remove a sitting Prime Minister.

    The only other possibility to improve Gillard’s personal polling is to implement a policy from the ground up that will be in place within 2-3 years, not the NDIS & Education reforms that will take generations to find out the positive effects. She needs to pull that one out of her pocket and fast but unfortunately I don’t believe she has one or is capable of such an act.

    Fortunately that is still more than the other side has.

  17. February 18th, 2013 at 16:01 | #17

    @Senexx

    “The only other possibility to improve Gillard’s personal polling is to implement a policy from the ground up that will be in place within 2-3 years”

    Re-design the mining tax, implement a middle-term focused infrasture building stimulus program (e.g. improving the train system) and successfully roll out the NBN.

    At least what they do can now and have an effect before the election is to stop the stupid pursuit for budget surplus.

  18. February 18th, 2013 at 16:12 | #18

    The drop in polling is obviously driven by a variety of factors all arriving in quick succession, but much of which is beyond Gillard’s control: the Obeid inquiry, Thompson arrested, a backlash from some sporting clubs and journalists about how that inquiry was handled, the small amount from the mining tax, the figures being bandied around about the deficit, the ongoing backgrounding of journalists from Rudd supporters about their dissatisfaction and despair, and the renewed media profile of Kevin Rudd. The latter two matters, of course, indicate a still internally divided party more than 2 years after the last election.

    If the polls were indicating Labor within striking distance (at least on national voting patters) only 2 to 3 months ago, I cannot see the value in panicking about leadership when circumstances such as those I have listed have combined to cause the present drop.

    There is little perspective on the state of the economy being put out in the media by economists sympathetic to the job this government has done.

    Getting that out there is of much more value than talking about inevitable leadership changes.

  19. Chris Warren
    February 18th, 2013 at 16:18 | #19

    All this is just mischief. The claim

    Julia Gillard has almost no chance of victory at this point, while Kevin Rudd has a chance.

    has been deliberately constructed by Ruddites feeding to the media.

    Rudd could easily call all his ‘supporters’ together and read them the riot act. They can then go off and feed to the media a new message: all united under Gillard.

    Then Kevin Rudd will have no chance of victory while Julia Gillard will have a much enhanced chance.

  20. Chris Warren
    February 18th, 2013 at 16:22 | #20

    @Senexx

    I would recommend reinstalling Rudd to the leadership group say as Deputy PM

    A good idea. After an election caucus can do what ever it likes with these two.

  21. Disenfranchised
    February 18th, 2013 at 16:23 | #21

    Disagree. There is no choice but to stick with Gillard, she is if nothing else, a tough proven fighter. Putting Rudd in charge will not remove Craig Thompson or the NSW ICAC Inquiry. During the term of this government Rudd has been part of the problem. During the 2010 election campaign his treachery possibly cost Labor a majority. This is why the Labor caucus will never unite behind him. In the next six months there will be plenty of opportunities for Gillard to go after Abbott and his magic pudding. If Rudd pulls his head in she may just have some success.

  22. derrida derider
    February 18th, 2013 at 16:34 | #22

    @alister , you’ve never had to work for the SOB; they have. Haven’t you ever had a boss so bad that you’d rather lose your job than stand him (it always seems to be a “him”, BTW) much longer?

  23. Jim Rose
    February 18th, 2013 at 16:48 | #23

    I do not think that a liberal party would dispose a leader who has seen off two Prime Ministers and is leading in the polls.

    I doubt that the working class will suffer under Abbott. It is not the 1960s. The Liberals win a fair share of what is left of the working class vote and need it to get over the line.

    If Rudd was to mount a challenge, someone would have to show him how to do it. His last attempt was dreadful. At least be in the same country and time zone for the evening news.

  24. Hermit
    February 18th, 2013 at 16:49 | #24

    I’m looking forward to Prime Minister Abbott getting climate scientists to retrain as nannies. Therein likes the problem with Rudd; his two big 2007 election promises were Work Choices and the ETS. He reneged on 50% of those promises therefore cannot hold his nerve and is not PM material. If the other nervous nellies in the ALP bring about a leadership change they deserve to lose.

  25. Katz
    February 18th, 2013 at 16:51 | #25

    I’ve lived around swinging voters long enough to know that overwhelmingly they have stopped listening to Gillard. They have a very punitive attitude and are counting the hours to give her an electoral thrashing.

    Much of the mud flung by Abbott has stuck. This success can be attributed to some combination of actual policy failures, the unconvincing and wooden performance of Gillard, prejudice against her and what these voters imagine she represents.

    All of these problems are reversible. But it would take some masterful politicking to achieve reversal. And there is no Paul Keating who can win the in winnable, sweetest victory of them all.

  26. derrida derider
    February 18th, 2013 at 16:52 | #26

    @PeterH – “there were very few of [the current ministry] that missed the chance to tell us all how dreadful [Rudd] was as PM.”

    Yes, and did you not stop to think that is because he was, in fact, dreadful? Apart from the other problems with switching back to him there would be the risk that he would continue to be impossible to build a team around for the election (think of the effect of a spate of high-level resignations to “spend time with their families” just before the election as people got fed up).

    Nope, there’s no way out here – we are going to have an Abbott government and we should concentrate on denying it a Senate majority (as much for its own good as ours – wiinning the Senate was John Howard’s downfall).

    Life will go on. I wouldn’t vote for the man in a pink fit, but on form he’s definitely going to be more interested in pursuing re-election than in pursuing culture wars and so will chase the median voter rather than the median RWDB. He’s stuck with some real old crazies on his current frontbench, though – I hope he has the sense to bring in a spate of new faces when he becomes PM.

  27. MartinK
    February 18th, 2013 at 17:00 | #27

    The problem as I can see it is that the power brokers would have little to gain from a Rudd government, especially compared to a Gillard opposition holding the balance in the senate.
    (I would hardly consider myself well informed but had taken this as a broadly accepted implication, would seem not though).
    That would also mean that there will be no clean out of the ALP before they have lost all chance of holding any real influence in the political scene. It is not a given that will happen at all and it is certainly a while away.

  28. TerjeP
    February 18th, 2013 at 17:12 | #28

    JQ – I’ve never understood the appeal of Rudd in the eyes of the public so my judgement may be off, however I can’t see another change of leadership by the ALP doing anything for their prospects. Quite the opposite in fact.

    Personally I want to see tax cuts, spending cuts and an increase in civil liberties. Basically I want less of the government in our lives. The ALP won’t do drug reform, has shown itself a threat to free speech and the Internet and is no more decent to asylum seekers. It is pretty impossible for somebody like me to support them on the basis of civil liberties. The conservatives certainly won’t liberalise drugs or allow euthanasia but they might cut taxes a little and they might cut spending a bit. They have a super sized baby bonus on the cards and a ridiculous approach to carbon emissions but there fiscal credentials tip them over the line for me on this occasion. I’d actually really like the ALP to put something meaningful on the table in policy terms not waste time on who the leader is. If radical action is called for why not do something radical on the civil liberties policy front. They might just surprise themselves.

  29. alister
    February 18th, 2013 at 17:24 | #29

    @derrida derider, I have had that displeasure. I quit. But the only thing at stake was my career. At the time, I didn’t even have children to take care of. I’d work for a bad boss who I hated if it meant a chance to derail the apparently inevitable Abbott government.

  30. February 18th, 2013 at 17:28 | #30

    on the other hand Cameron and Ozzy did it in Britain

  31. Tim Macknay
    February 18th, 2013 at 18:20 | #31

    @Jim Rose

    I do not think that a liberal party would dispose [sic: of] a leader who has seen off two Prime Ministers…

    ???
    Are you talking about Tony Abbott? Who was the second one?

  32. Phil
    February 18th, 2013 at 18:32 | #32

    I think that Australia will get the government that they deserve. If that is Abbott then they will suffer the consquences (as will Australia). The less well off and the middleclass with school kids, who appear to be supporting Abbott, will be hit hard and for that they can blame themself. I wonder how long after the election they will be crying that we didn’t vote for that (Shades of cando)!

  33. John Quiggin
    February 18th, 2013 at 19:35 | #33

    So, is anyone actually willing to assert that they believe Gillard can win?

  34. John Quiggin
    February 18th, 2013 at 19:36 | #34

    So, is anyone actually willing to assert that they believe Gillard can win? Or, has the best chance of denying Abbott control of the Senate?

  35. alfred venison
    February 18th, 2013 at 19:40 | #35

    as for him being a slave driver: he says he’s learned from that. apparently he has supporters as well as detractors.

    icac is a problem for the alp factions especially the nsw right faction. rudd is non-aligned & has leftover business from his partial first (only) term as p.m. re. the alp factions. supposedly with the support of his (ostensibly left faction) deputy. we saw where that took him. he needs to be drafted; there needs to be a build up of momentum; they have to appeal to him. it needs to be about stopping abbott. its not time now; things must get worse for gillard first; then the momentum will build until someone calls for him to “step up to the plate” or cop abbott. the deal must come with demonstrable cross-factional support for reform of the faction system. he provides the credible reform counter-narrative he needs to break with the prevailing narrative of alp corruption a la icac.

    rudd’s opponents brought on the last spill while he was overseas on official business serving his country. nevertheless he made a fist of it & a number of labor members were prepared to stick their necks out & be known to have voted for him. before that, of course, gillard deposed him in the middle of the mining crisis in ’10, attributing a necessity for this action to rudd’s good gov’t having lost its way. now the reality of her mining tax sellout – yes, she sold out her country for power – is clear to see for anyone. how base. my feeling is that the mining tax fiasco will haemorrhage gillard’s credibility until rudd is drafted. and a good thing that’ll be, too. closure. -a.v.

  36. February 18th, 2013 at 19:57 | #36

    I think the best way forward is for JG to graciously stand down forthwith and for the Caucus to spurn Rudd and elect a new person as leader. It could be a poisoned chalice, but if it were (say) Shorten, he’d have a fighting chance against the unpopular Abbott. I don’t think any potential candidates would pass up the opportunity to be PM even if briefly – it can’t be assumed it would come again.

  37. Ikonoclast
    February 18th, 2013 at 20:29 | #37

    In the immortal words of the Starcraft 2 Marine (to Julia Gillard);

    “Oh, that’s your plan is it? We’re screwed!”

  38. Edumak8
    February 18th, 2013 at 20:30 | #38

    It saddens and frustrates me that the depth of political conversation and debate continues to hinge on Party Leaders. I accept that this is apparently of utmost importance to Joe & Josephine Public, but is it because the idea of selecting a ‘person’ as opposed to ‘policy’ is more concrete and less abstract? If this is so, the voting public has truly become the clay of the media and about as shallow as low tide on the mudflats. Including Civics and History in the Australian Curriculum is far too little and far too late. The utopia of a vast body of politically aware voters has sunk into the depths of reality TV, and so to, if TAbott is elected, is a progressive and socially just Australia in the future.

  39. Chris Warren
    February 18th, 2013 at 20:32 | #39

    @John Quiggin

    Gillard with a united party behind her can do better than a damaged, reincarnated, Rudd.

    Whether this is winnable is another matter. A Rudd, at this stage and using the skulduggery he would need to ascend, could make a loss worse.

    The Senate is a different matter.

    The current representation is:

    Greens 9
    ALP 31
    DLP 1
    Libs 28
    Nat/CLP 6
    Ind 1

    When the Ind and greens vote with ALP, the majority is 41 to 35.

    Only senators with terms expiring 30 June 2014 are up for election. Xenophon looks safe as he was 3rd elected.

    A possible bad scenario is that 6 go to the Libs, with no ALP or Green gains.

    Another bad possibility is a loss of 3 with a hung Senate. But I would not assume that the Liberals can keep the ACT second seat away from the Greens.

    If the Libs lose ACT, they need to get another 5 to gain control of the senate.

    So if I was concerned about the Senate – I would send money to the Greens in Canberra. The ALP knows it will never get it.

    The variability in State senate votes due to national ALP leaders is not of overpowering concern. The Senate vote tends to contradict the HoR vote.

  40. Jim Rose
    February 18th, 2013 at 20:42 | #40

    John, with your indulgence, Antony Green’s blog is the best place to look for who might control the senate after 2013 see http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2011/09/can-the-coalition-win-control-of-the-senate-through-a-half-senate-election.html for a long state by state post

    Not possible even if the Libs win three senators in each state.

    The trick is for the Coalition winning a third seat in South Australia and Tasmania and to win a fourth seat in both Queensland and Western Australia in 2013!!!

    The WA Nationals could win a 4th seat in WA on a separate ticket??

    LNP won 4 in Qld by running separate tickets. not possible now

    Only way in 2016 is for Katter’s mob to peal off enough labor votes to his economic nationalism brand to split Qld senators 3 LNP and 1 Katter.

    as Chris noted, the greens are a wild card in canberra for the senate. the Libs must fail to get the quota of 33%, but the Libs got 40% on the recent assembly election.

    a drover’s dog could stop abbott winning a majority in the senate.

  41. m0nty
    February 18th, 2013 at 21:02 | #41

    John Quiggin :
    So, is anyone actually willing to assert that they believe Gillard can win? Or, has the best chance of denying Abbott control of the Senate?

    Yes Prof Q, I think she can win. Perhaps you missed the raft of psephological analysis over the Christmas period analysing the poll-of-polls margin that Gillard had back then, comparing it to other pre-election situations, and finding that Gillard was still very much within reach according to historical precedent.

    It’s still a long, long way to go until the election. 2013 is about waiting as long as possible for the positive elements of the Rudd agenda, as implemented by Gillard, to come to the fore. The NBN is primary among these. The more homes that the NBN passes before the election, the more the polls will lean Gillard. This is supposed to be a better year for the economy, too, so the budget deficit will turn around.

    Those who run around like headless chooks after a bad poll or two choose to ignore the long term trends, which are all that ultimately matters this far out. You’re over-reacting to some rogue polls. When Morgan put out that poll with Gillard in front just before Christmas, I didn’t see you claiming that Abbott should panic and step down for Turnbull. You’re letting your feelings about Rudd cloud your judgement. You’re better than that

  42. February 18th, 2013 at 21:09 | #42

    It is a bit hard to get enthusiastic about a prime minister who tries to solve the budget problem by taking money off single mothers backed up by a treasurer who has promised already not to increase the taxes on the rich.
    If Labor is to have any credibility as a Labor government it needs to finance all the good things it has developed by having the guts to raise taxes. It would also help if it reversed the single mother decision or, better still solve this problem by a significant boost to the Newstart allowance.

  43. Russell
    February 18th, 2013 at 22:02 | #43

    Can Gillard win? She has as much chance as Rudd who is despised by too many to be a credible candidate. No point changing to him, they would all look too ridiculous.

    Here’s a fantasy to enjoy: Gillard calls a press conference and announces she will step down from the leadership (without any sign of being pushed). Caucus meets the next day and unanimously elects senator Faulkner as leader. A safe lower house seat is found for him to contest at the coming election, and he gets rid of those spectacles that hide his eyes.

  44. Fran Barlow
    February 18th, 2013 at 22:11 | #44

    Speaking as someone unsympathetic to much of what I associate with both Rudd and Gillard …

    The best chance the ALP has of staving off a defeat and/or “saving the furniture” entails leaving Gillard in charge. A change on the eve of the election for the second time running would appear, and be, ludicrous. It would show that the ALP had lost all self-respect and was now merely a creature of the MBCM. It would hand Abbott yet another victory.

    If the ALP is defeated, then a new leader, untainted by defeat, can be chosen and that is still the lesser harm.

    Abbott surely cannot hide forever. When he emerges — or better yet — the ALP force him out, his fragile claims to credibility will come apart.

  45. Chris Warren
    February 18th, 2013 at 22:13 | #45

    @Russell

    As I recall, Faulkner is retiring and a senator can be PM and needs no lower house seat.

  46. Russell
    February 18th, 2013 at 22:33 | #46

    Chris – it was a fantasy. I had developed it further: with Faulkner (now not retiring, a bit like Colin Barnett) the ALP stocks rise (people know he has been against ALP sleaze and has always been impressive in Committee hearings etc) which cause the Libs to depose Abbott and replace him with …. not Turnbull, who we like, but a lot of Libs don’t, but with Hockey. Affable, genial Joe soon looks like a fool compared with the adult Faulkner. ALP wins.

    If they don’t win, they at least don’t do as badly as with Gillard/Rudd, Faulkner get desired retirement, and new leader, Combet, Shorten or whoever, hasn’t been tainted with defeat at an election.

  47. SJ
    February 18th, 2013 at 22:33 | #47

    Gillard can’t win. Maybe she deserves to, but she can’t.

    It’s time for her to suck it up, and step down.

    Who in God’s name gives a rats ass what political staffers think of Rudd?

    The public prefers Rudd to Gillard to Abbott. That’s democracy.

  48. Russell
    February 18th, 2013 at 22:34 | #48

    Sorry, I see your point – PM can’t be in Senate??. OK, someone in Reps has to resign now!

  49. kevin1
    February 18th, 2013 at 22:57 | #49

    @Fran Barlow
    Fran, MCBM? Free Dictionary says could be “Magnetostatically Controlled Bianisotropic Material but I think not.

  50. Jill Rush
    February 18th, 2013 at 23:03 | #50

    I think Julia Gillard can win but it is very difficult with the way that the press report issues. I heard the wails of industry about the proposed changes to the way that minerals are mined before I knew what was proposed. There is no doubt that the media love to have a leadership battle as it helps to sell. I watched the same breathless reporting in the last days of Rudd when his ego really got in the way of government.
    Rudd is not the choice – if the Rudd people have their way and do destabilise Julia Gillard enough for her to resign be quite sure that it won’t be Rudd they turn to. Arguing that he is the only choice is to join the media baying for change. Greg Combet and Bill Shorten are far more likely candidates – and Stephen Smith must be in the mix.

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