No Deal Boris

Last time I looked at the Brexit trainwreck, I predicted that May would seek an extension from the EU (which she did) but assumed they would want a concrete commitment to finality, through a referendum (which they didn’t). I ended with the observation

To be clear, “No Deal” doesn’t really mean that. A literal no deal would see Britain reduced to food rationing in a matter of weeks, air travel cancelled immediately and so on. In reality, “No Deal” means a series of emergency deals, cobbled together in circumstances where the EU faces significant but manageable economic costs, while the UK faces catastrophe.

Now May is on the way out, and it appears she will replaced by Boris Johnson, the British politician most hated by the EU. There’s no prospect that he will be able to negotiate a deal, even if he wants to. So, unless he is overridden as May was, a No Deal Brexit is on the cards.

But, contrary to what I wrote above, I think there’s now every prospect of something approaching a literal no deal. Johnson will certainly not be keen to make the kinds of accommodations needed for a manageable No Deal Brexit.

From the EU’s point of view, a few weeks of total chaos, followed by an abject surrender from Johnson, looks a lot more appealing than the same scenario applied to the earnest, if incompetent, Theresa May.

As the not so old English curse (attributed, as is normal in such cases, to ancient Chinese wisdom) has it, “may you live in interesting times”. Johnson is certainly interesting, and is a curse the English have brought on themselves.

33 thoughts on “No Deal Boris

  1. Rog (and DuncanE)

    To substantiate what I said earlier regarding the EU election outcome in the UK:

    “Most significantly, the share of the two unambiguously pro-Brexit parties – the Brexit party and Ukip – was 34.9%, markedly lower than the aggregate total of the pro-second referendum parties (the Lib Dems, Greens, Change UK, the Scottish National party and Plaid) at 40.3%.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/27/five-things-we-have-learned-from-uk-european-elections

  2. The EU parliaments’ powers are fairly weak however the Brexit party are in, elected by the the U.K.

    I’m sure Farage will claim whatever he can claim plus a bit more and use it against the govt.

    Farage took a significant qty of votes away from both Labour and Conservative.

  3. The EUP 2019 election result may well be interpreted totally different within the UK than from far away – like my perspective:

    The voter participation rate in the UK, 37%, is low in comparison to the EU overall, 50.82%
    The EU web-site national results UK:
    Percentage of votes Seats
    BREXIT 31.7 29
    LibDem 18.55 16
    Labour 14.05 10
    Greens 11.09 7
    Con (Tory I assume) 8.71 4

    Without wishing to rain on Farage’s parade, the Tory supporters seem to be reasonably consistent regarding the 2016 Brexit referendum (we are going to leave the EU so why bother). Farage’s Brexit Party voters seem to me to be hypocrites or confused or they don’t know in which parade they are participating (we are going to leave but we want strong representation from the UK in the EUP – even though they can be outvoted in the EUP by other UK MEPs, which in fairness they couldn’t know last Thursday).

    The LibDem and the other Remain party supporters are consistent (we want to stay and therefore we vote to get MEPs). Labour contains a mixed bag on Brexit allegedly.

    Farage’s Brexit Party ‘success’ will have no effect on the EU. The EUP (Parliament) has plenty of experience with Nigel.

    (I’d like to watch a future EUP debate involving Nigel Farage and a MEP of DIE PARTEI, an overtly satirical party. )

  4. After submitting I noticed some data is difficult to read. Apologies. I try again.

    The EU web-site national results UK:
    Percentage of votes; Seats
    BREXIT 31.71; 29
    LibDem 18.55; 16
    Labour 14.05; 10
    Greens 11.09; 7
    Con (Tory I assume) 8.71; 4

  5. Farage took a significant qty of votes away from both Labour and Conservative.

    I’m not sure what you’re basing that on. To me, it seems at least equally likely that the bulk of the people who voted for Farage’s party in this election were people who voted for Farage’s party at the last EU Parliament elections.

  6. I’m comparing with 2014, Brexit/UKIP are up by ~870K votes and have gone from 16% to 30.5% of the vote.

    It’s basically a second vote on Brexit.

  7. I’m comparing with 2014, Brexit/UKIP are up by ~870K votes and have gone from 16% to 30.5% of the vote.

    The figure I’m seeing for 2014 is 26.6%. Where are you getting yours?

  8. Boris Johnson UK (not Johnson & Johnson USA)

    “The prosecution claimed Johnson had broken both his mayoral oath and parliamentary code of conduct by lying and misusing statistics, and that “there will be seldom a more serious misconduct allegation against a Member of Parliament or Mayor than to lie repeatedly to the voting public on a national and international platform, in order to win your desired outcome”.” [source: smh 30/5/2019]

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