Monday Message Board

Back again with another Monday Message Board.

Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. If you would like to receive my (hopefully) regular email news, please sign up using the following link


http://eepurl.com/dAv6sX You can also follow me on Twitter @JohnQuiggin, at my Facebook public page   and at my Economics in Two Lessons page

13 thoughts on “Monday Message Board

  1. The Worshipful Company of World Traders Tacitus Lecture 2021, titled “‘Too Hot to Trade’: world trade and climate action”, was presented by Dr. Kirsten Dunlop, CEO of EIT Climate-KIC, on 25 Feb 2021.
    https://www.world-traders.org/2021/01/04/tacitus-2021/

    The Lecture included:

    “In 2015 the Paris Climate Agreement was to: “hold the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial, and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C.”

    Unfortunately, it looks now as if 1.5°C will occur around about 2030, irrespective of the actions we take in the interim. The upper 2°C limit is now likely prior to 2050, even with actions better than the current Paris commitments. 3°C is likely early-to-midway through the 2nd half of this century.

    In short, the current global warming, of 1.3°C in 2020, is already dangerous, as we know because we are experiencing it. 2°C would be extremely dangerous. 3°C is catastrophic.

    SO… we now live in a time of climate emergency. Emergency means: to quote David Attenborough, “we face irreversible damage to the natural world and the collapse of our societies”. But our collective action still amounts to denial. We are not yet acting as if we are facing an urgent, life threatening emergency.

    We need to transform – not incrementally improve a few things, and invest in renewables now that they are profitable – but dramatically and radically change things.

    Our current global commitments are to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. That is estimated by the IPCC to give us a two/thirds chance of survival. Would you hop on a plane if you were told that you had a two/thirds of getting to your destination alive? You would probably ask for something to be done to give a higher probability of safety, and that indeed is the point. Net zero globally must be achieved as soon as possible, ideally by 2030, if we are to avoid breaching the 2°C limit. That is a massive undertaking, far greater than anything currently being contemplated officially. Roughly a decade in which to implement the greatest transformation in human history. That is what the science is telling us.”

    The final paragraph:

    “My message to you is: this is coming – the risk and the opportunity; the regulation and the pricing and a gathering geopolitical will – regrettably late, but coming nonetheless. You still have capital available and in significant amounts. Use it. At very least invest in the innovations that will allow us to trade in a world of storms and heat, higher seas and uncharted change in our environment. But at best, use it to bring to life a world of trade that regenerates and cools the planet and in doing so expresses the best of human solidarity and community.”

  2. An online discussion about the high cost of housing prompted me to suggest that negative gearing of investment in rental housing is a factor.

    A response – “negative gearing does not decrease the stock of rental housing, but probably increases it.
    Without negative gearing, there would be less landlords.
    Also, you should realise that when capital gains tax is calculated on the sale of a negatively geared house, tax is paid at about 37% on that portion of the sale price which represents interest paid over the years on the loan.
    Negative gearing is just a delayed income tax. Negative gearing is a worthless investment strategy, and I speak from past experience. There is no way that I would now purchase a negatively geared property. The only winner is the tenant.”

    I would be grateful to hear the opinions of posters here. Does negative gearing push up housing costs?

  3. Does deprivation make it in to TECOTP?

    “Christina Pagel
    Director @UCL_CORU, Prof of Operational Research, passionate about health care, women in STEM, politics. 2016/17 Harkness Fellow. Member of @independentsage
    @chrischirp
    Feb 27

    “THREAD on COVID and DEPRIVATION:
    As cases recede nationally, some areas remain stubbornly high. Many have been persistently high for months. Deprivation is an important aspect of this. This is a tour of deprivation & covid & what it means (21 tweets but pls read).

    “16. Surprise Surprise, the regions in England with the highest resideual rates of Covid are also those with more deprived areas.

  4. Seems clear how the LNP will try to slither out from under the sexual assaults issue – a ramping up of “Labor too” and a shift gear into “Labor worse”; with strong partisan media org support it is a tactic that clearly works or we’d have a Shorten government right now. Not that Labor is without sin but the slitheriness of Morrison’s LNP does seem especially notable.

    And does Morrison owe Dutton big time for NOT informing him and diverting some of the flak by saying he didn’t? Doesn’t seem credible that Higgins case at least was not made known to Morrison but he may still manage plausible deniability – with others taking responsibility so he does not have to.

    The Saturday Paper’s Koudelka cartoon sums it up, with the PMO “contact tracing unit” declaring that with luck there’ll be no proof Morrison was ever in contact with any information on any topic whatsoever. https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/cartoon/2021/02/27/161434440011171

  5. Apparently there have been 20 inquires into aged care in as many years. All ignore the obvious that turning care into a profit making commodity is the biggest source of the mess. Throwing more money at the sector will result in minimal changes and higher profits, even for the so called “Non Profits”. It is a national disgrace.

  6. Yes Poselequestion is right on the money! From past actions, .it seems obvious that if the LNP government throw more taxpayers money at a privatized aged cared sector, then a lot of this money will merely increase the profits of aged care providers. The LNP government are unlikely to do any better given that they have failed to do so after eight years in government. Giving taxpayers money to wealthy private business owners seems to be the theme of all LNP governments.

  7. Poselequestion,

    That is correct. Even the ABC has made no mention, that I have heard, that the “for profit” principle in aged care is the prime source of the problem. This should be a lesson to governments. Palming off social services to private enterprise not only does not work, it also does not save governments from criticism. In this situation, government and the principle of government still gets criticized even though it is private enterprise in most cases who have created and profited from the disgraceful mess.

    That’s why it’s called free enterprise. It gets a free pass to make money and then shovel all the problems created on the government, meaning on the taxpayers, to pay to clean up the mess. It’s like free enterprise is coated in teflon. Nothing sticks to them. They are perfect. They do no wrong. They can never be criticized. They are never criticized.

    It is an astonishing feat of capitalist propaganda, the way free enterprise is held to be perfect, is held to never create any problems. Actually, I am noticing now the way that our society has become sclerotic (using an ageing metaphor) and incapable of changing anything that needs to be changed, from carbon emissions to fixing up aged care. Our society is incapable for changing anything because the private property / private profit principle is sacrosanct. The prescribed rules of private property / private profit must be obeyed in all cases even if the real system (aged care system, climate system) is telling us that things are not working. The workings of the profit algorithms are given priority over the workings of the real systems of the world.

    This is why we can’t change things. The neurotic man who cannot step on cracks in the pavement cannot perform the necessary tasks of his life. He cannot get to work on time. He can’t even get to therapy on time. The neurotic society which cannot break its own self-imposed rules (everything must operate first and foremost for profit motives) cannot perform necessary real tasks in response to real system requirements. We will fail to change until we change out of the valuation system of capitalism.

  8. A Transport & Environment study, published Feb 28, finds electric car batteries need far less raw materials than fossil-fuel cars.

    “An electric vehicle (EV) battery uses up just 30kg of raw materials with recycling compared to the 17,000 litres of petrol burned by the average car. That’s according to a new study that shows Europe’s current crude oil dependency far outweighs its need for battery raw materials. The gap is set to increase further as technological advancements drive down the amount of lithium required to make an EV battery by half over the next decade. The amount of cobalt required will drop by more than three-quarters and nickel by around a fifth.”
    https://www.transportenvironment.org/press/electric-car-batteries-need-far-less-raw-materials-fossil-fuel-cars-study

    Another myth busted.

  9. Aged care, Howard + Joel shmooze, creating myths and msn.

    Ikon said “Even the ABC has made no mention, that I have heard, that the “for profit” principle in aged care is the prime source of the problem.”

    Luckily it is Howard’s 25th anniversary so he and Libs all over msn.

    Insiders sunday morning made mention that Howard in 1998 made the aged care policy all about the business. Not humans.

    And have you noticed today -abc, smh, inside story – all have articles about Howard.  No mentioning, the day after aged care report released, of Howard’s part in the start. And Bronwyn Bishop not conducting checks after 4,000 complaints. At the time the family court was grappling with putting children – humans – front and centre. But Howard et al didn’t make the human connection?

    And the msn, of all days has historiography about Howard. And Joel.

    Just Lucky? Or Fate? Or just too much msn news? …
    ****

    1.
    “How John Howard contributed to the aged care crisis 

    ..” Prime Minister John Howard adamantly defended his minister, Bishop, and denied the existence of any nursing homes crisis. “I don’t accept it’s a crisis,” he said on the ABC Lateline TV program. “I mean that is just a ridiculous exaggeration. It is a very sad and regrettable incident concerning one nursing home.”

    “Yet a litany of reports surfaced in the media about conditions in other nursing homes, indicating that the problem was systemic. Bishop acknowledged that her department had received over 4,000 complaints in the previous two-and-a-half years but had not withdrawn any licences.

    “So how did this situation come about?

    “In the 1996-97 budget, the Howard government slashed $1 billion from aged care funding and introduced its Aged Care Act, claiming that higher fees and bonds would provide the incentive for investors to expand and improve the industry. Instead, conditions in nursing homes deteriorated and average waiting time lengthened significantly.

    “Under the Act, nursing home operators no longer had to allocate a set proportion of government subsidies to patient care. Links between the level of funding received and the number of qualified staff employed were removed. In 1998 the previous requirement for a registered nurse to be on duty was scrapped.

    “Homes and hostels were to be licensed for three years, with standards monitored through spot checks. Yet no such checks were ever conducted, “…
    https://theaimn.com/how-john-howard-contributed-to-the-aged-care-crisis/

    2.
    “As the royal commission prepares findings that will likely recommend a return to an earlier system of aged care, the crisis in the sector can be linked to Howard-era reforms that stoked greed and lowered care standards, and have been worsened by successive governments. By Rick Morton.

    “The collapse of aged care (part one)”
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2020/09/12/the-collapse-aged-care-part-one/159983280010409

    3.
    “Less Tax or More Social Spending: Twenty Years of Opinion Polling

    January 2004
    Richard Grant
    Victoria University Melbourne

    …” With complex funding and health delivery models, health policy is frequently part of the national debate. …

    … [27]. Sceptical consumers may be ignoring the repeated claims of politicians and other spokespeople with vested interests, and tuning out from negative media reports, believing that governments will find the money required given the importance of health and the recurring demands for higher government spending and better services [11,28]]. Others have argued that Government claims of unsustainability are unfounded and reflect an underlying belief that user-pay health systems are better [29].” …
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/255661253_Less_Tax_or_More_Social_Spending_Twenty_Years_of_Opinion_Polling

    4.
    “Face the facts: competition and profit don’t work in health, education or prisons
    John Quiggin

    …” The issue is not, in the end, one of public versus private. Rather it is the fact that market competition and the profit motive inevitably associated with it is antithetical to the professional and service orientation that is central to human services of all kinds.

    “No matter how cleverly market reformers design incentive schemes, competition for profits will always find a way to subvert them. It is time we as a society recognised this, and returned to what actually works.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/12/face-the-facts-competition-and-profit-dont-work-in-health-education-or-prisons
    ****

    Joel. What to do about Joel who…
    . ..” will join Mr Howard, former prime minister Tony Abbott and former deputy prime minister John Anderson at a University of NSW function marking the milestone.

    “He will say while Mr Howard’s “stubbornness” over an apology to the Stolen Generation still taints his political legacy, the former PM’s efforts to wedge Labor on refugee and national security policies still weigh on the opposition to this day.

    “Mr Fitzgibbon will say the lesson to learn from the Howard government is that to be a successful party of government in a two-party system, you must build a broad coalition of community support.

    “Critical to achieving that broad support base is accommodating the diverse range of thoughts and attitudes held by the representatives of many very diverse electorates,” he will say.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fitzgibbon-to-offer-labor-free-advice-at-howard-celebration-20210301-p576u0.html

  10. Aged care, Joel, and msn.

    Ikon said “Even the ABC has made no mention, that I have heard, that the “for profit” principle in aged care is the prime source of the problem.”

    Luckily it is Howard’s 25th anniversary so he and Libs all over msn. And Joel accepted the invite to JWH’s birthday election bash.

    Insiders sunday morning made mention that Howard in 1998 made the aged care policy all about the business. Not humans.

    And have you noticed today -abc, smh, inside story – all have articles about Howard.  No mentioning, the day after aged care report released, of Howard’s part in the start. And Bronwyn Bishop not conducting checks after 4,000 complaints. At the time the family court was grappling with putting children – humans – front and centre. But Howard et al didn’t make the human connection?

    And the msn, of all days has historiography about Howard. And Joel.

    Just Lucky? Or Fate? Or just too much msn news? …
    ****

    1.
    “How John Howard contributed to the aged care crisis 

    ..” Prime Minister John Howard adamantly defended his minister, Bishop, and denied the existence of any nursing homes crisis. “I don’t accept it’s a crisis,” he said on the ABC Lateline TV program. “I mean that is just a ridiculous exaggeration. It is a very sad and regrettable incident concerning one nursing home.”

    “Yet a litany of reports surfaced in the media about conditions in other nursing homes, indicating that the problem was systemic. Bishop acknowledged that her department had received over 4,000 complaints in the previous two-and-a-half years but had not withdrawn any licences.

    “So how did this situation come about?

    “In the 1996-97 budget, the Howard government slashed $1 billion from aged care funding and introduced its Aged Care Act, claiming that higher fees and bonds would provide the incentive for investors to expand and improve the industry. Instead, conditions in nursing homes deteriorated and average waiting time lengthened significantly.

    “Under the Act, nursing home operators no longer had to allocate a set proportion of government subsidies to patient care. Links between the level of funding received and the number of qualified staff employed were removed. In 1998 the previous requirement for a registered nurse to be on duty was scrapped.

    “Homes and hostels were to be licensed for three years, with standards monitored through spot checks. Yet no such checks were ever conducted, “…
    https://theaimn.com/how-john-howard-contributed-to-the-aged-care-crisis/

    2.
    “As the royal commission prepares findings that will likely recommend a return to an earlier system of aged care, the crisis in the sector can be linked to Howard-era reforms that stoked greed and lowered care standards, and have been worsened by successive governments. By Rick Morton.

    “The collapse of aged care (part one)”
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2020/09/12/the-collapse-aged-care-part-one/159983280010409

    3.
    “Less Tax or More Social Spending: Twenty Years of Opinion Polling

    January 2004
    Richard Grant
    Victoria University Melbourne

    …” With complex funding and health delivery models, health policy is frequently part of the national debate. …

    … [27]. Sceptical consumers may be ignoring the repeated claims of politicians and other spokespeople with vested interests, and tuning out from negative media reports, believing that governments will find the money required given the importance of health and the recurring demands for higher government spending and better services [11,28]]. Others have argued that Government claims of unsustainability are unfounded and reflect an underlying belief that user-pay health systems are better [29].” …
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/255661253_Less_Tax_or_More_Social_Spending_Twenty_Years_of_Opinion_Polling

    4.
    “Face the facts: competition and profit don’t work in health, education or prisons
    By John Quiggin

    …” The issue is not, in the end, one of public versus private. Rather it is the fact that market competition and the profit motive inevitably associated with it is antithetical to the professional and service orientation that is central to human services of all kinds.

    “No matter how cleverly market reformers design incentive schemes, competition for profits will always find a way to subvert them. It is time we as a society recognised this, and returned to what actually works.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/12/face-the-facts-competition-and-profit-dont-work-in-health-education-or-prisons
    ****

    Joel. What to do about Joel who…
    . ..” will join Mr Howard, former prime minister Tony Abbott and former deputy prime minister John Anderson at a University of NSW function marking the milestone.

    “He will say while Mr Howard’s “stubbornness” over an apology to the Stolen Generation still taints his political legacy, the former PM’s efforts to wedge Labor on refugee and national security policies still weigh on the opposition to this day.

    “Mr Fitzgibbon will say the lesson to learn from the Howard government is that to be a successful party of government in a two-party system, you must build a broad coalition of community support.

    “Critical to achieving that broad support base is accommodating the diverse range of thoughts and attitudes held by the representatives of many very diverse electorates,” he will say.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fitzgibbon-to-offer-labor-free-advice-at-howard-celebration-20210301-p576u0.html

  11. EU logic: Since the UK grabbed too many Astra Zenneca Vaccines, including some produced in the EU (and the US has long declared to just keep all they got), we now punish Australia, by denying Astra Zenneca exports there. Makes perfect sense doesn´t it.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s