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The 100 Years War

June 28th, 2014

It’s 100 years since a political assassination in the Balkans set in motion the Great War which, in one form or another, has continued ever since. In destroying themselves, and millions of their subjects, the German, Austrian and Russian empires brought forth Nazism and Bolshevism, which killed in the tens of millions. After 1945, the killing mostly stopped in the developed world, replaced by the threat of instant nuclear annihilation, which remained ever-present for decades and has by no means disappeared. Instead, the War moved to the Third World, and a multitude of proxy conflicts. The fall of the Soviet Union saw the renewed outbreak of the War in Europe, most bloodily in Yugoslavia and more recently in Georgia and Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the British and French imperial War plans, embodied in the (secret) Sykes-Picot treaty and the contradictory assurances offered to Jews and Arabs in the Balfour declaration and the McMahon-Hussein correspondence[^1], continue to work their evil consequences long after all the original participants have gone to their graves. Syria, Iraq and Israel-Palestine are all products of the Great War, as is modern Iran (the product of a revolution against British and later American suzerainty imposed after 1918).

And, after 100 years, nothing has been learned. The architects of the most recent catastrophe in Iraq are still respected commentators, as are the many historians and others who defend the conduct of the British-French-Russian imperial alliance in the 1914-18 phase of the Great War (most British and French apologists ignore or explain away the alliance with the most oppressive European empire of the day, but I imagine there are now Putinist historians hard at work producing defences of Tsarist war policy).

More fundamentally, despite 100 years of brutal and bloody evidence to the contrary, the idea that war and revolution are effective ways to obtain political ends, rather than catastrophic last resorts, remains dominant on both the right and the left.

Perhaps in another 100 years, if we survive that long, the world will have learned better.

[^1]: In addition to these, there was the secret Constantinople agreement with the Tsarist empire, and the Treaty of London and Agreement of Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne with Italy, none of which came into effect. These secret deals (and similar agreements made by the Central Powers) make it clear that all the major participants in the Great War were committed to the pursuit of imperial expansion, even as they all pretended to be defending themselves against aggression and pointed to the crimes of their enemies as justification for their own.

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  1. alfred venison
    June 28th, 2014 at 19:39 | #1

    coincidentally, its 95 years today since the treaty of versailles was signed. -a.v.

  2. Ivor
    June 28th, 2014 at 19:47 | #2

    This is crazy. You cannot combine Nazism and Bolshevism in the same sentence as causing millions of deaths.

    What a hopeless muddle. Nazism worshiped deaths based on race. Bolshevism was not Stalinism.

    Have you counted the deaths caused by European empire building?

    What is your count of the deaths due to American involvement in Middle East, Afghanistan, South America, Indochina, and Indonesia?

    What is your count of the number of deaths due to religious sectarianism?

    What of the future – what is your understanding of the likely death toll from capitalism’s demand to continue sending fossil-carbon into the atmosphere?

  3. Robert (not from UK)
    June 28th, 2014 at 20:20 | #3

    Two years ago, discussing the horrors unleashed by 1914, Professor Quiggin paid tribute to my co-religionist Benedict XV for his attempts to stop Europe’s auto-genocide. May I, for my part, offer homage to a world leader of the time (and yet another co-religionist) whom, to my knowledge, Professor Quiggin has never cited?

    I refer to Spain’s Alfonso XIII. During the Great War King Alfonso maintained at his own expense a kind of monarchical Red Cross, which did all kinds of good work in conveying letters and parcels to and from the families of military prisoners, as well as frantically attempting to intervene – not least through the agency of the Marques de Villalobar, Spain’s ambassador to Belgium – in getting Edith Cavell’s death sentence commuted. (Other campaigns by Alfonso and Villalobar at the time to spare civilians from the firing squad had greater success.)

    After World War I, the Allies made Madrid pay dearly for its 1914-18 insistence on neutral status. A contributing factor – although hardly the contributing factor – in the subsequent ineptitude of the League of Nations sprang directly from the Allies’ frequent attempts to treat Spain as if it were a conquered vassal state. Combine this with the overpowering influence of la leyenda negra, “the black legend”, on what has traditionally passed for “thinking” on Spanish issues among American leaders since the 1890s and among British leaders since 1588, and you have a brew of predictable toxicity.

    There was always more to Alfonso himself than that capacity for dreadful blunders which so often overwhelmed him from the late 1920s until and after his 1931 downfall. Many of these blunders derived explicitly from the loss in 1912 of his best Prime Minister, Jose Canalejas, who had a Stolypin-like talent for making the system work despite itself (and who, like Stolypin, constituted so severe a danger to the Moron Right and the Psycho Left alike that he had to be murdered).

    Alfonso, notwithstanding his mistaken judgements – many of them surely connected with a sex drive which almost made JFK look like a Trappist, and which had results comparable with Mussolini’s latter-day mental exhaustion – came out of the 1914-18 conflagration with enhanced foreign-policy stature. This is a phenomenon rare enough to be worth noting, today of all days.

  4. J-D
    June 28th, 2014 at 21:00 | #4

    There is something appealing about the idea that people don’t get what they want through war, but in fact history provides a number of examples of people who got what they wanted through war. I might begin by listing, just for example, Alexander the Great, Qin Shi Huang, Liu Bang, Trajan, Charlemagne, William the Conqueror, Genghis Khan, Peter the Great, Frederick the Great, Bismarck, and Mao Zedong. Their wars had heavy costs in human life and human suffering, but those I named got what they wanted.

    I could with similar ease produce a list of historical figures who have launched wars that brought disaster on themselves as well as those around them. I don’t mean to say that war is often, or ever, a good idea. But it strikes me as giving less than the full picture to leave out the fact that sometimes, at least for some people, if they don’t care what price others pay, war works.

  5. Debbieanne
    June 28th, 2014 at 21:37 | #5

    Funny isn’t it, how we like to see ourselves as ‘enlightened’. But we still want to solve things with violence. As a society we don’t appear to want to grow into our better nature, just crawl back to our most base. It fits with the libertarian ideal, FYIGM.

  6. alfred venison
    June 28th, 2014 at 21:50 | #6

    @Robert (not from UK)
    sorry, edith cavell was executed. possibly alfonso was among those who pleaded, unsuccessfully as it turned out, for clemency. -a.v.

  7. alfred venison
    June 28th, 2014 at 22:10 | #7

    has anyone seen “ 37 days” on sbs? it a docudrama depicting the actions & reactions of state ministers & their monarchs in the period between the assassination & the start of war. part one of 3 one hour episodes, was screened last week & is at the sbs on demand site until july 4. part 2 screened last night. its worth a look, imho, though everyone’s a critic. it may be a while before it screens again & you certainly won’t have another chance to see it so close to the centenary of days it portrays. -a.v.

  8. Robert (not from UK)
    June 28th, 2014 at 22:11 | #8

    Oh yes, I know Nurse Cavell was put to death. I never suggested that she had been reprieved. But other defendants were reprieved, and in at least 20 cases (including eight other females) Alfonso’s intervention – with or without Villalobar – made the difference.

  9. June 29th, 2014 at 00:01 | #9

    Unlike the case with the First World War, humankind had a vital stake in the outcome of the Second World War. The consequences if the Nazis had won would have been unthinkably horrific.

    Even if the Second World War could not have been avoided — and some political participants believe it could have been, notably UK Labor politician Konni Zilliacus (1894-1967) — the death toll should not have been anywhere near as great for the Western Allies. (As terrible as these losses were, they were still only a fraction of the death toll suffered by countries like the Soviet Union, Poland and China.) The Second World War, in the West could easily have ended by 1943. The overthrow of Italian dictator Benito Mussolini in July 1943 and the all-too-brief liberation of the entire Italian Peninsula from the yoke of fascism is only one of a number of examples where the opportunity for a quick victory over Nazi Germany was thrown away. Evidently because the manufacturers of the Western Allies’ war materials stood to gain far more by prolonging the war than by ending it, the war was needlessly prolonged.

  10. zoot
    June 29th, 2014 at 00:05 | #10

    @Robert (not from UK)
    Well, I’ve never heard that before. Thank you Robert for enlightening me.

  11. June 29th, 2014 at 00:56 | #11

    Given Hillary Clinton’s role in launching the current war against Syria, her stated intention to start a war against Iran and her former husband’s role in starting the war against Yugoslavia as United States’ President in 1999, it seems to me that the review of Hillary Clinton’s just released autobiography, published on our web-site, will be of interest to site visitors. If the overall poor response of book reviewers to Hillary Clinton’s autobiography sinks her bid to be the Democratic Party candidate for President of the United States in 1916, then we should all be able to sleep a little more soundly for the next year or two.

    Review: Hillary Clinton’s Hard Choices – the Syria chapter

    Candobetter.net recently received a review copy of Hillary Clinton’s “Hard Choices,” Simon and Schuster, 2014. Curious, I opened it at the chapter on “Syria: A wicked problem.” It was interesting to have a document from the horse’s mouth, or the US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton. Her style as a US Secretary of State dealing with foreign affairs reminded me of an old-fashioned psychiatrist’s unimaginative confirmation of problems in any patient they are sent, where, even if the patient is quite sane, she’s going to find them insane.

  12. Ikonoclast
    June 29th, 2014 at 07:51 | #12

    Meanwhile, China avoids expeditionary wars and continues wars of the periphery. China seeks to incrementally increase its territory around its periphery. Tibet is an older example now. The South China Sea, its islands, its fishing grounds and its possible potential for oil now lure China into conflict with Japan, Phillippines and Viernam. One would expect that Mongolia and the eastern part of Russia are in China’s 100 year plan as territorial acquisitions.

    Will China achieve this kind of expansion? I don’t believe so. The USA’s and Russia’s containment of China should hold long enough for the Limits to Growth to strangle China. But the USA itself needs to retrench from attempting to remain a global power and return to being a “mere” hemispheric power. If it does not it will cripple itself with strategic over-reach. China understands this well and waits patiently for the USA to destroy itself.

    “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.” – Napoleon.

  13. J-D
    June 29th, 2014 at 08:12 | #13


    I note that the suggestion that the Second World War could have been ended in 1943 is unsupported by evidence.

  14. Julie Thomas
    June 29th, 2014 at 08:21 | #14

    There is a series of programs on RN on the first World War that could be worth listening to if one doesn’t – quite irrationally – respond negatively to Geraldine Doogue’s style of interviewing.

    Unfortunately there is no transcript available.


  15. June 29th, 2014 at 09:30 | #15

    J-D (@ #13) writes that I have provided no evidence that the Second World War could have ended in 1943.

    Have you looked at the article, which I linked to, J-D?

    At (@ #9) I pointed out that the Italians liberated the whole of Italy themselves when they overthrew Mussolini in July 1943. Surely you must ask yourself why the subsequent invasion of the whole Italian peninsula by Italy’s former ally, Nazi Germany, was not prevented, with the British and American armies in Sicily and with total (as I believe I recall) air superiority over Italy all the way up to the Brenner Pass at the Austrian border through which all of Germany’s ground forces had to move by rail?

    Can’t you see that if Italy had remained liberated after July 1943, as surely must have been possible, that the war could have finished that year?

    As I showed in my linked article, the Western allies threw away other opportunities to quickly liberate large areas of occupied territory and capture or eliminate large numbers of German soldiers on the ground. Surely if they hadn’t thrown these opportunities away, the war could have ended much sooner than may 1945. ‘Lost’ opportunities to more quickly end the war also include:

    1. During the British invasion of Greece in 1944, the British, with total air superiority over the skies of Greece allowed nearly all of the occupying German armies to escape as the British turned their guns on ELAS resistance fighters and re-armed Greeks who had collaborated with the Nazis. ELAS fighters, who controlled the mountains above the roads through which the German Armies had to retreat, were prevented from attacking the retreating Germans.

    2. After the Second Battle of El Alemain from October to November 1942, Rommel’s forces were allowed to retreat, when their retreat could easily have been cut off on the ground and with aerial bombardment? (I have momentarily mislaid a book with a title somewhat like “Great Battles of the Second World War” in which this was shown. I will cite from this book when I find it.)

  16. Doug
    June 29th, 2014 at 09:55 | #16

    Christopher Clark”s The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914 is detailed account of what happened. I largely agree with John Quiggin’s comments.

    what needs to be noted in the current ‘celebrations’ of World War I by the current govt is that no consideration is given to why Australia got involved and why the horrific consequences were for the Australian community and family life. Not to mention two referendums on conscription which revealed a deeply divided nation. they seem to be operating on the basis that if we don’t mention these issues then they didn’t happen

  17. Collin Street
    June 29th, 2014 at 11:02 | #17

    > Surely you must ask yourself why the subsequent invasion of the whole Italian peninsula by Italy’s former ally, Nazi Germany, was not prevented, with the British and American armies in Sicily and with total (as I believe I recall) air superiority over Italy all the way up to the Brenner Pass at the Austrian border through which all of Germany’s ground forces had to move by rail?

    That it’s possible to do any one of a set of things does not mean that it’s possible to to all of those things. “Opportunity cost”.

  18. Robert (not from UK)
    June 29th, 2014 at 11:07 | #18


    I wish I could say I was surprised at how obscure the history of Alfonso XIII’s global charity now is. Alas, from my own memories of certain “historians” at a sandstone Australian campus during the Cold War, I am not surprised at all.

    One such “historian” took us through the history of Soviet Russia from Lenin to Brezhnev, in a series of lectures during which he politely refrained from mentioning the Holodomor even once. Had I not possessed myself a family background which acquainted me with Truman Democrats, Solidarnosc, Laurie-Short-type union leaders, etc., etc., I would have been left ignorant.

    For anyone who might wish to learn more about Alfonso, Wikipedia can (as so frequently) be helpful if used with caution. I cite three bibliographical entries from the relevant Wikipedia article:


    * Churchill, Sir Winston. Great Contemporaries. London: T. Butterworth, 1937. Contains the most famous single account of Alfonso in the English language. The author, writing shortly after the Spanish Civil War began, retained considerable fondness for the ex-sovereign.

    * Noel, Gerard. Ena: Spain’s English Queen. London: Constable, 1985. Considerably more candid than Petrie (see below) about Alfonso the private man, and about the miseries the royal family experienced because of its hemophiliac children.

    * Petrie, Sir Charles. King Alfonso XIII and His Age. London: Chapman & Hall, 1963. Written as it was during Queen Ena’s lifetime, this book necessarily omits the King’s extramarital affairs; but it remains a useful biography, not least because the author knew Alfonso quite well, interviewed him at considerable length, and relates him to the wider Spanish intellectual culture of his time.


    I hope that this assists.

  19. Ikonoclast
    June 29th, 2014 at 11:41 | #19

    @Robert (not from UK)

    Sounds like revisionist history to me.

    “Following World War I, Spain entered the lengthy yet successful Rif War (1920–1926) to preserve its colonial rule over northern Morocco. Critics of the monarchy thought the war was an unforgivable loss of money and lives, and nicknamed Alfonso el Africano (“the African”).[7] In 1923, General Miguel Primo de Rivera seized power in a military coup. He ruled as a dictator with Alfonso’s support until 1930. ” – Wikpedia.

    Alfonso was a rich aristocrat in league with imperialists, oligarchs and the military dictatorship. How does some token charity work make one iota of difference to these damning facts?

  20. Ikonoclast
    June 29th, 2014 at 11:45 | #20

    Go to the link on the Rif War and see the photo of “Spanish Legionaires holding the heads of Riffian fighters, 1922.” That’s a “nice” thing that attests to the real level of morality and honour of Alfonso el Africano.

  21. June 29th, 2014 at 11:45 | #21

    Australian losses on the Western Front in the 18 months from March 1916 until November 1918 were far higher than at Gallipoli in the 8 months from April until December 1914. Over 50,000, or an average of 1,562 per month, died on the Western front compared to 8,141 or 1,017 per month at Gallipoli. If we put aside the fact that no side’s cause had merit in the First World War, the plan to attack Gallipoli, even if it failed, showed vision and initiative compared to the unimaginative and bloody war of attrition subsequently fought on the Western Front.

    Almost none of the ostensibly objective and critical histories of the Gallipoli campaign discuss the campaign in its wider context – the nearby Balkans campaign, which was a resumption a the Balkan Wars of 1912-13, or the Ottoman military campaign against Armenians, which ended in attempted genocide of Armenians and the eventual rescue of some in 1920 in the newly formed Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic established by Lenin and Trotsky.

    An exception is Bruce Page, in the “The Murdoch Archipelago” (2003). He shows how Rupert Murdoch’s father, Keith Murdoch, who has been lionised for his denunciation of the Gallipoli campaign and the supposedly incompetent British generals in command, had little to say about the subsequent even more terrible carnage of Australians on the Western Front.

  22. Chris O’Neill
    June 29th, 2014 at 13:28 | #22


    Italian peninsula by Italy’s former ally, Nazi Germany

    Of course, if Nazi Germany hadn’t been sending vast amounts of resources to Italy then they could have very well used them elsewhere. Thank heaven Hitler was a strategic failure.

  23. alfred venison
    June 29th, 2014 at 13:40 | #23

    @Robert (not from UK) sorry, Robert (not from UK) my mistake. -a.v.

  24. Robert (not from UK)
    June 29th, 2014 at 13:47 | #24

    That’s OK, Alfred Venison, I can now understand – which previously I couldn’t – how my original sentence could have led to your interpretation of it.

    So perhaps, if Professor Quiggin is able to edit already existing comments (such editing might or might not be technically possible, I have no idea), my initial words “Other campaigns by Alfonso and Villalobar at the time to spare civilians from the firing squad had greater success” could be changed to “Nurse Cavell paid the supreme price, but other campaigns by Alfonso and Villalobar at the time to spare civilians from the firing squad had greater success.”

  25. Tapen Sinha
    June 29th, 2014 at 14:28 | #25

    I am surprised that nobody has talked about the biggest war that mankind personkind has declared: War against nature.

    We have decided to raise the temperature across the world by 2 to 10 degrees C (there is a great deal of uncertainty) in the next hundred years. This will lead to death and destruction on a scale not since the dinosaurs disappeared from the face of the earth with not an insignificant probability.

    The Great War killed no more than 20 million (military and civilian casualty). What happened immediately afterwards – the flu pandemic – killed 60 to 100 million. Climate change, makes another mass killing through bird flu or other lurking diseases far more likely over the next century.

  26. Sheila Newman
    June 29th, 2014 at 14:36 | #26

    Malthusista’s arguments about the failure to protect the Italians or the Greeks seem good ones to me. And it seems that the Americans (Trueman particularly) were really able to string Stalin along, so that he just didn’t stop Hitler when he could and should have. Sometimes I wonder if Stalin was working for the allies and served them well by stuffing up the communist revolution.

  27. Sheila Newman
    June 29th, 2014 at 14:48 | #27

    @Tapen Sinha
    My response to Tapen Sinha, for what it’s worth. I agree. And the war against nature always abrogates democracy and land-tenure at a local level. So one way of combating this is relocalisation, which is the new name for anarchy – or absence of distant government and imposed hierarchies. The use of massive reserves of fossil fuel has permitted industrial activities and government on a scale hitherto never experienced. I feel that we should act locally to preserve trees to combat heat islands and protect local humidity. (I’m thinking of Makarieva and Gorshkov’s theory on the biotic pump). I think that global action is largely inefficient, agreements difficult to follow, and tend to be captured by corporate actors. So we need to dig our heels in where we live.

  28. Moz of Yarramulla
  29. June 29th, 2014 at 21:27 | #29

    Pr Q said:

    Meanwhile, the British and French imperial War plans, embodied in the (secret) Sykes-Picot treaty and the contradictory assurances offered to Jews and Arabs in the Balfour declaration and the McMahon-Hussein correspondence[^1], continue to work their evil consequences long after all the original participants have gone to their graves. Syria, Iraq and Israel-Palestine are all products of the Great War, as is modern Iran (the product of a revolution against British and later American suzerainty imposed after 1918).

    In addition to these, there was the secret Constantinople agreement with the Tsarist empire, and the Treaty of London and Agreement of Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne with Italy, none of which came into effect. These secret deals (and similar agreements made by the Central Powers) make it clear that all the major participants in the Great War were committed to the pursuit of imperial expansion, even as they all pretended to be defending themselves against aggression and pointed to the crimes of their enemies as justification for their own.

    after 100 years, nothing has been learned. The architects of the most recent catastrophe in Iraq are still respected commentators, as are the many historians and others who defend the conduct of the British-French-Russian imperial alliance in the 1914-18 phase of the Great War…most British and French apologists ignore or explain away the alliance with the most oppressive European empire of the day,

    I see Pr Q is dragging out Trotsky’s musty old “Secret Treaties” interpretation of the causes of the Great War for another airing. Somehow I don’t think this exposure will breath life into that rotting corpse. The phrase “imperial war plans” is not helpful as it can be parsed in a number of ways to suit a variety of ideological purposes – the nastier “plan for imperialist war” serves as bait to mobilise partisans, easily switched for the more neutral “empires plan for war” when scholars arrive on the scene.

    Trotsky’s revisionism is misleading and tendentious (like most of what that mass-murdering egg-head wrote) because it gets everything backwards, mendaciously substituting the blatant causes of the War for its secret effects. But thats what you would expect coming from a man who beleived that “Imperialism was the highest stage of capitalism”, who secretly treated with the enemy to betray his own country and then turned police state guns to crush a workers uprising. It’s disappointing to see a scholar of Pr Qs stature slumming it with such a low-life.

    The evidence shows that the war spoils promised by the Secret Treaties were not even a gleam in statesman’s eyes until the trench-lines had been dug. The Allies negotiated them because the War had stalemated, with the Teutonic powers very much holding the upper hand, which made them desperate to defray its ruinous cost and to lure more allies into the fray.

    This is clear from both the historical time-line and the geo-political laterality of the Secret Treaties: Sykes Picot (May 1916), Constantinople Agreement (March 1915), Treaty of London (April 1915), Balfour Declaration (November 1917) and, Pr  Q,  lets not forget the Treaty of Bucharest (August 1916). The promised annexations were more or less a form of in-kind indemnities and irredentism to the newer Allies. With a bit of Great Game opportunism thrown in for good measure. Well, they had to have something to show for all this blood and treasure squandered. (Although subsequent experience has shown that the whole of Iraq is “not worth the bones of one single” Marine.)

    The stalemate explains why all of the war-time Secret Treaties were signed by the Allies. By contrast the dominant Germans seemed anxious to both shed coalition partners (the Austrian treaty was like being “shackled to a corpse” and the Turks were still “the sick man of Europe”) and get new enemies, such as the US. This suggests a certain myopic megalomania, no?

    I am the last person to “defend the conduct of the British-French-Russian imperial alliance in the 1914-18 phase of the Great War”. The Allies war-time diplomatic machinations were cynical and aggrandizing. FWIW, my view is that the Central Powers started the war for no good reason whilst the Allied Powers were guilty of extending the war beyond any reasonable calculus. Back in NOV 2009 I wished a plague on both houses but insisted that the burden of War Guilt lay on the shoulders of the Teutonic aggressors:

    Pr Q’s scathing characterization of Europe’s WWI leaders looks fair and reasonable in the post-1915 period. It was then that individual leaders conspicuously failed to do their duty…They made little serious effort to stop the carnage. Quite the opposite they mostly looked to profit from it with the proliferation of secret treaties and plans to extend post-war empires…[But] it is unfair to make the Allied powers morally equivalent to the Central powers. The Central Powers were planned and primed for aggressive war from the get-go

    No doubt it was wicked of the Entente Cordiale to truck with the “the most oppressive European empire of the day” (abolition of serfdom?, the Duma? Stolypin? Witte?). But you can hardly call Russia’s romantic pan-Slavic promise of military aid to its Serbian brother, after its gruesome monstering by Austria, an “imperial crime”.

    In any case, the “Willy-Nicky correspondence” clearly shows that Tsar was desperate to avoid a confrontation with Germany and even offered a partial mobilization to allay German fears of the “Russian Steam Roller”. But the Kaiser had already issued his “blank cheque” to Austria and nothing was going to stop its presentation.

    Germany amused itself by mischief-making with the Mexicans (Zimmerman Telegram) before coming up with the brilliant plan of financing the Bolshevik revolution in Russia (the Parvus Memorandum). Fortunately the Mexican overture came to nothing although we all know how well the Russian scheme turned out. It sealed Germans victory on the Eastern Front, a classic example of the cure being worse than the disease.

    More generally, the imperialist interpretation of the Great War suffers from fatal ideologically blinkering. The Triple Entente’s main aim was national security, not imperial hegemony. It was never formed with the aim of picking up more colonies, in fact it suspended the Great Game. It was designed to contain German militarism which was obviously ramping up with the advent of Wilhelm II who was the world heavy weight champion at offending and apprehending all and sundry.

    The germ of the European catastrophe was formed when that strategic genius Wilhelm II decided ditch Bismark’s sensible balance-of-power Realpolitik for an aggressively expansionist Weltpolitik. Although Willy could never quite decide whether he wanted a “place in the Sun” in Mittelafrika or more Lebensraum in Mitteleuropa. In the end he compromised and went for both, as laid out in the Septemberprogramm and somewhat accomplished at the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk.

    The Allies formed alliances and entered the War to counter Teutonic militarist aggression, not to pick up more colonies, The Franco-Russian Alliance (1892), the Franco-Anglo Entente Cordiale (1904) and the Anglo-Russian Entente (1907) were drawn up to ease imperial rivalry between the Great Powers so that they could join forces and turn their attentions to stopping the Prussian military-industrial complex from turning into a juggernaut.

    Not that it did them much good. the Central Powers started the War on every front: Austria invaded Serbia creating the Eastern Front, Germany invaded Belgium creating the Western Front and the German-inspired and armed Young Turks attacked Russia creating the Southern Front. That’s not counting von Tirpitz’s completely unforced error in ordering the Kriegsmarine to start a naval arms race with the Royal Navy which created the nautical “Northern Front” that nearly brought both Germany and Britain to their knees.

    Only one “major participant in the Great War” was “committed to the pursuit of imperial expansion” prior to the start of the War and that was Germany. And its main territorial ambitions lay in the East, that is intra-, rather than extra-, European. Which is completely contrary to Lenin-Trotsky agit-prop. Although bleedin’ obvious to anyone with a European race memory.

    Every school boy used to know this narrative. And it was long ago proven beyond a shadow of a doubt, by nationalistic German scholars no less. The “Fischer Thesis” revealed the smoking gun of German two-front war plans which were drawn up von Schliefen in 1905, approved by the Cabinet in 1912 and executed by von Moltke in 1914. These observations fitted well with Weber’s more general “Sondeweg” theory which correctly predicted the pathological evolution of the Prussian military-industrial complex. But, after all, what would Weber know in comparison to Trotsky?

    Needless to say the Prussian Junkers left the job half-done and it was left to a certain Austrian corporal to properly execute the dead Field Marshall’s strategic conception. It should not be too hard to see a pattern emerging when drawing a simple line between those two rather large dots. But our age is noted for not noticing.

    This is par for the course with ideological historiography where social causality is often conflated with moral culpability. We are going to see a lot of this over the next six months and scholars need to be at battle stations to contest the “History War over the War”.

  30. alfred venison
    June 29th, 2014 at 22:37 | #30

    after versailles, germay & austria both opened their entire national archives to scholarly research without restriction. this is how fischer gained access to the documents he used to make his case that germany was, as Jack Strocchi wrote, “committed to the pursuit of imperial expansion prior to the start of the war.”

    the problem with using the findings of fischer’s research into german national archives to conclude that only germany was “committed to the pursuit of imperial expansion prior to the start of the war”, is that no comparable study has been done on british or french national archives for the same period.

    until unrestricted research can be carried out, on the british or french national archives, as was done by fischer on the german national archives, it cannot be known for sure whether britain and/or france was or was not “committed to the pursuit of imperial expansion prior to the start of the war”. -a.v.

  31. Hal9000
    June 29th, 2014 at 23:25 | #31

    @alfred venison
    Thanks for the recommendation, AV. A fine dramatisation. A bit hard on the Austro-Hungarian envoy to Berlin I thought, but then I don’t know the history intimately enough to judge.

  32. June 29th, 2014 at 23:31 | #32

    @Sheila Newman
    It has been pointed out to me that I named Truman (as well as misspelling his name) as if he were president during the second world war. I am hopeless at presidents’ names. Sorry. He influenced Stalin after the end of the second world war, apparently.

  33. Sheila Newman
    June 29th, 2014 at 23:35 | #33

    Another mistake. I failed to log James out when I posted the correction re-Truman. We don’t usually use the same computers.

  34. James Wimberley
    June 30th, 2014 at 01:54 | #34

    The collapse of Mussolini’s government caught everybody by surprise. The Nazis started out as conspiratorial and opportunistic street fighters; they were good at thinking on their feet as late as 1944, in the skilful suppression of the July plot by Goebbels. German officers had also been trained since Moltke to show initiative. Neither group were half so good at thinking ahead: Sea Lion, Barbarossa.

  35. J-D
    June 30th, 2014 at 07:22 | #35


    That opportunities were lost during the war is, by default, a virtual certainty. Human beings are fallible and make mistakes. Generalship is a difficult job. It is beyond credibility to suppose that either side fought a war on the scale of the Second World War without substantial strategic errors. In general, major military blunders, where they took place (and they probably took place in all major wars and many minor ones), are easy enough to explain without supposing a deliberate intention to prolong the war by avoiding winning it.

  36. alfred venison
    June 30th, 2014 at 08:14 | #36

    bit hard on the envoy to london, too. i’m a sucker for period pieces. glad you enjoyed it. -a.v.

  37. June 30th, 2014 at 11:59 | #37

    Re #9 and # 15, the Italians didn’t liberate Italy in 1943, and the Germans didn’t invade it. The Germans were there already, and when the Italians changed sides the Germans just disarmed them and fought on.
    The British (and Australians) were thrashed a number of times in Greece, and got back in only when the Germans withdrew under Soviet pressure. There wasn’t really any scope for hot pursuit.
    Saying things like “their retreat could easily have been cut off on the ground” ignores the proven fact that there was never in the entire war any easy victory over German forces. It simply didn’t happen.
    If the allies hadn’t made any mistakes the war would have been over quicker, and if the allied soldiers had fought as well as German soldiers the war would have been over quicker, and if the allied generals had been as good as German generals the war would have been over quicker, and if Churchill and Stalin and FDR had been as bad at strategy as Hitler was the war would probably have been lost, but in no case was it for want of trying.

  38. Socrates
    June 30th, 2014 at 14:22 | #38

    I think that JQs thesis here can be legitimised to a degree by linking Nazism and Bolshevism into a wider context – the rise of militarism and totalitarianism. Europe had plenty of 19th century wars but they had far lower death tolls, because most of the deaths happened to the soldiers. They might steal food from civilians, and kill a few, but they had not ravaged entire countries since the end of the Thirty Years War. The great war was the start of industrial scale warfare. It had been preceded by an industrial scale armes race. France lost more men in one battle – Verdun – than Napoleon lost invading Russia. World War One all but bankrupted England, then the most powerful nation on earth.

    I think in World War One France and England deserve at least a slarge a billing in the list of guilty parties. They had a large military establishment and arms industry that wanted war. Peace overtures were ignored. Haig concealed information about the true extent of losses from not only the British public, but his own government. Read Barbara Touchman’s books, or the excellent recent history “A World Undone”.

    BTW Malthusista, A World Undone mentions Keith Murdoch’s attempts to remove Sir John Monash from command of the Australian army, as late as 1917/18, because of his Prussian Jewish background. He simply made up claims that Monash was unpopular with subordinates, despite hsi excellent staff work adn success. You can see where Rupert got his modus operandi (and attitudes) from.

  39. may
    June 30th, 2014 at 14:38 | #39

    Moz of Yarramulla :
    June Tabor’s version of “The Band Played Waltzing Matilda” is quite haunting. Especially in response to people who are pro war. Even more so than the other versions I’ve heard.

    once some itinerant undesirables
    camped by what was left of a billabong
    under what would have been the shade of a dead coolibah tree
    and they sang as they watched and waited til the billy boiled

    you’ll come a’walzing Matilda with me

    out came the stash bag rolled themselved a thin doobie
    sat back and shared a joke with nice mug of tea
    better watch the mull,mate,it’s a bloody long way to fill up
    yair yair,we’ll be right, I’m, going easy


    down came the ranger mounted in his four wheel drive
    down came the troopers on their harleys
    “what the hell do youse stupid bastard think you’re doing ,don’t you know it’s a total fire ban”
    and what’s that you’re smoking?
    you’re gunna go a row.”

    up jumped the itinerant undesirables
    sprang into what was left of the billabong
    stood sinking just outside of reach
    in mud up to their knees.
    “come and get us ranger,
    be dirty hero, capturing the stranger”


    and their ghosts may be heard as you pass by what was left of that billabong

    who’ll come a’walzing Matilda with me?

    doesn’t scan & i think i’ve spelled walzing wrong but never mind.

  40. may
    June 30th, 2014 at 15:27 | #40

    is it a good idea to say i own the copyright on those words?


    i own the copyright on those words.

    New Scientist has an interesting take on historical data this week.

  41. faust
    June 30th, 2014 at 17:49 | #41

    The Great War was generally horrific but if it did not happen then the European imperial system would have continued for many, many decades ahead. Prof Quiggin, as a well-known left-wing academic, would surely not support that!

    On the Skyes-Picot treaty; while it lumped together various sects and religions together, the sectarian strife is not due to Skyes-Picot but due to millenia-old hatreds. Skyes-Picot may have lumped them together within a border but it is not the cause of their conflict.

  42. alfred venison
    June 30th, 2014 at 19:23 | #42

    millenia-old hatreds is a tired old trope & doesn’t answer anything. the people subject to sykes-picot in the 20th century were at peace in the ottoman empire in the 18th & 19th centuries and earlier. they were not at each other while in the ottoman empire. -a.v.

  43. J-D
    June 30th, 2014 at 19:27 | #43

    Before Italy entered the First World War in 1915, the Allies agreed to endorse its claims on territory to be seized from Austria-Hungary, and after the war Italy received a large part of what had been promised, although not the whole because of US intervention. Clearly Italian territorial ambitions were the whole or a large part of the motives for Italy to enter the war. But they weren’t any part of the motives of the Allies for going to war in 1914.

    Similarly, the Central Powers forced Romania to surrender territory in 1918 after defeating it; but desire to seize Romanian territory was no part of the motives for the Central Powers going to war in 1914.

    There are many examples where the historical evidence shows that territorial ambitions motivated conquerors and would-be conquerors to go to war, but the evidence needed to demonstrate that is something more than the seizure of territory after a war, or even the formulation during a war of plans to seize territory. That kind of evidence is also consistent with the alternative hypothesis that once a war has already started it gives people ideas about how they might look for profit from victory.

    The First World War resulted in territory in New Guinea passing from German control to Australian, and territory in South West Africa passing from German control to South African, but I don’t think that’s enough to show that those were motives for the Allies going to war in the first place. Likewise, once the Ottoman Empire had entered the war the Allies made plans for its partition, but I don’t think that’s enough to show that such plans were part of their motives for war with the other Central Powers in the first place.

    How big a part did French desire to recover Alsace-Lorraine from Germany play in bringing about the war? I don’t know, but I do know that the bare fact of the transfer of control after the war is not enough to settle the question, and also that talk about it during the war isn’t enough either.

    And so on. The Allies took territory from the Central Powers after the war, and not the other way around, but what that demonstrates is not that the Allies bear sole or even primary responsibility for launching the war, only that they won it; just as the terms of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk don’t demonstrate anything about who launched the war, only that the Germans beat the Russians.

    On the other hand, the complexities of the question don’t justify concluding that nobody started the war, or that everybody did. Wars are started by human beings, and that means they’re started by some particular human beings and not others.

  44. faust
    June 30th, 2014 at 19:37 | #44

    @alfred venison

    Much like saying Iraq was a happy and peaceful place before the 2003 invasion… if you exclude the torture by a murderous regime that kept everyone in place.

  45. Tim Macknay
    June 30th, 2014 at 19:48 | #45

    @alfred venison

    millenia-old hatreds is a tired old trope & doesn’t answer anything. the people subject to sykes-picot in the 20th century were at peace in the ottoman empire in the 18th & 19th centuries and earlier. they were not at each other while in the ottoman empire. -a.v.

    I know it’s not your intention a.v., but you’re essentially making an argument for imperial rule. The different nationalities in the region were at peace during the Ottoman period because the imperial authority enforced a peace. Arguably the British and French mandates did the same thing until they withdrew. The Ottomans were certainly no more benign or enlightened than the Western empiral powers, as events such as the Armenian and Assyrian massacres in the 19th Century attest.

    Internecine conflict and disorder is a fairly predictable result whenever an imperial order collapses or withdraws – the historical examples of it are countless. None of which excuses the French or British for their role in the specific chaos in the Middle East, of course.

  46. Red
    June 30th, 2014 at 20:13 | #46

    Professor Quiggin, I read “Zombie Economics” and found it very learned and informative, not least for confirming the harshness I suspected – so many at the time were saying that the economic rationalism of Keating was necessary and actually visionary.

    Thanks again for such an authoritative blog.

    Any history books you’d recommend on the Great War and its consequences?

  47. J-D
    June 30th, 2014 at 21:13 | #47

    @alfred venison

    What makes you so sure that the different communities of the Ottoman Empire were at peace with each other in the 18th and 19th centuries and earlier? It’s not something I’ve ever thought about before, but as soon as I started looking into the subject I found references to violent clashes between Maronites and Druze in the 1840s and 1850s culminating in the killing of thousands of people in 1860. Would I find more examples if I looked further? I don’t know. Do you?

  48. Nick
  49. alfred venison
    June 30th, 2014 at 22:09 | #49

    don’t know where you get that, Tim Macknay.

    the argument that they fight each other now because they have fought each other for millennia is racist & ahistorical – it fails as an explanation of the present because it cannot account for periods in the past when in different circumstances they have not fought each other. -a.v.

  50. John Quiggin
    June 30th, 2014 at 23:22 | #50


    A failed gotcha. Perhaps you missed the reference to revolution in the OP

    I would very much have preferred the continued survival of the German, Austro-Hungarian and Russian empires to the actual outcome. Hopefully, they would have become stable democracies in less than the near-century it actually took them (and Russia is scarcely there yet). But regardless, I would advocate peaceful agitation for democracy in preference to bloody revolution.

  51. Megan
    June 30th, 2014 at 23:52 | #51

    In pre-2003 US invasion Iraq there was no sectarian violence.

    The US own the subsequent inter-sect killings.

    That is an indisputable fact.

    To suggest the reason sunni and shia got along perfectly well, inter-married and lived side by side before the US started killing everyone and funding/directing/arming terrrsts etc.. was JUST because they lived under a (ahem, US-backed) dictator, and then suddenly started killing each other after he was killed – is the stupidest argument I have ever seen on this website.

  52. faust
    July 1st, 2014 at 00:28 | #52

    @John Quiggin

    I read your opening, but it is a great problem for people who hate the idea of empires (basically taking other people’s land) and the method to halt empire-building (war).


    Yes, Megan, tell the Kurds who were gassed and the Shi’ites who instigated an uprising and were massacred for their trouble after 1990/91 that Saddam Hussein was a gentle and peaceful person.

  53. faust
    July 1st, 2014 at 00:29 | #53

    @John Quiggin

    Oh, but I should add that I agree with your overall view though that WW1 was an instigator for some of the most violent fanatics we have ever seen and in my view set back liberalism for decades and decades.

  54. Sheila Newman
    July 1st, 2014 at 01:10 | #54

    J-D (@ #35) wrote:

    It is beyond credibility to suppose that either side fought a war on the scale of the Second World War without substantial strategic errors.

    So, J-D thinks it was a “strategic mistake” for the Americans and British to allow Nazi Germany to reconquer the whole of a country which had liberated itself entirely from fascism in July 1943, delaying the victory over the Third Reich which finally occurred in May 1945 by possibly a further 21 months, costing the lives of 152,940 Italian civilians and also costing the allied armies in Italy over 300,000 casualties?

    Whilst the British, Americans, French, Poles and Indians and Kiwis were fighting to conquer territory that had already been liberated in July 1943, the Nazi gas chambers at Treblinka, Auschwitz, Jasenovac, Majdenek, etc. were working tirelessly to exterminate occupied Europe’s Jewish population.

    Presumably, J-D thinks it was also a “strategic mistake” for the allied air forces not to finish off the operations of the gas chambers and the railway lines over which Jews were transported to the gas chambers with aerial bombardment?

  55. paul walter
    July 1st, 2014 at 02:48 | #55

    JQ reminds me of a comment I made to someone tonight elsewhere, re the Badar aborted seminar talk debate on honor killings; the lack of comprehension as to “others” remains underlyingly unchanged, from Heart of Darkness through Apocalypse Now, to Dr Haneef, to the present.

    It’s definitely true that 1914-45 was a classic Thirty Years War, but we were brought up to believe that a new dawn had arrived, ushered in by John Wayne, Trevor Howard and Audie Murphy and that apart from post Stalinist Russia and the muddled Chinese, all would be well apart from a few loose ends to be tied up.

    In fact, all that had happened was that the killing fields had been removed to the Third World, in particular Africa, where maybe twenty or thirty million people have died dogs death in places like Uganda and the Congo.

    We learnt this was only because they were primitive and we should greet the horror stories as with disdain.
    What we didn’t learn till later was that most of the Third World wars are actually to do with Big Power interference and quarreling through proxies, over strategic or resources provinces, which closed the Circle back 100 years quite neatly.

  56. J-D
    July 1st, 2014 at 05:13 | #56

    @John Quiggin

    I would prefer the peaceful establishment of stable democracies to bloody revolution, in all cases. But I don’t see any reason to think that peaceful evolution towards stable democracy would have been any more likely if the First World War had not been fought, or if the German, Austro-Hungarian, and Russian empires had survived. The Russian empire, at least, had already had a bloody (but unsuccessful) revolution, in 1905.

  57. J-D
    July 1st, 2014 at 05:28 | #57


    What’s the basis for your assertion that there was no sectarian violence in Iraq before 2003? That’s not what Wikipedia says. I am aware of limitations on the reliability of Wikipedia as a source, but then, I’m also aware of limitations on the reliability of your unsupported word as a source.

  58. J-D
    July 1st, 2014 at 07:45 | #58

    @Sheila Newman

    Like at least one other commenter here, I don’t accept it as established fact that the Allies could have prevented the Germans from seizing control of Italy in 1943. However, if, hypothetically, they could have done so and failed to do so, clearly that would have been a strategic mistake, probably one on a disastrous scale. Why would one not call that hypothetical scenario a strategic mistake?

    I also don’t accept it as established fact that it was within the power of the Allies to halt the operation of the extermination camps by aerial bombardment, but since you raise the subject, I deny your right to put words in my mouth for describing that hypothetical scenario.

  59. July 1st, 2014 at 09:24 | #59

    I repeat, Italy did not liberate itself, because it wasn’t at that time ruling itself. In 1943 Italy was first nominally independent under Mussolini but in reality under German control, and then nominally independent under the Italian government but in reality under German control. The Germans had to be removed by force under either scenario. The Italian campaign wasn’t done particularly well on the allied side (in particular, Bradley taking Rome instead of cutting off the German retreat was a big mistake), and Kesselring was pretty good on the German side, but that was really only a particular instance of the general principle that the German army was bloody good and allied generals were pretty ordinary.
    As for the camps, the accuracy of allied bombing simply wasn’t good enough to hit Auschwitz ovens and not Auschwitz dormitories, let alone railway lines. They could hit cities – at best, large marshalling yards – and their real strength was that they made the Germans move their AA guns from the eastern front to Berlin, but they didn’t do pinpoint.

  60. Megan
    July 1st, 2014 at 11:01 | #60

    “Riverbend” (an Iraqi living in Iraq during the period in question) from her blog April 26 2007:

    I remember Baghdad before the war- one could live anywhere. We didn’t know what our neighbors were- we didn’t care. No one asked about religion or sect. No one bothered with what was considered a trivial topic: are you Sunni or Shia? You only asked something like that if you were uncouth and backward. Our lives revolve around it now. Our existence depends on hiding it or highlighting it- depending on the group of masked men who stop you or raid your home in the middle of the night.

    Erik Leaver, Research Fellow for Peace and Security at the Institute for Policy Studies, and Raed Jarrar, Iraq Program Director at Global Exchange, stated in their Aug. 10, 2006 Foreign Policy in Focus website article titled “Iraq’s Sectarian Bloodshed ‘Made in the USA'”:

    Iraqi Shia and Sunnis have lived in harmony for centuries. Historically, the two sects lived in the same areas, intermarried, worked together and didn’t fight over religious beliefs. During the decade of U.S.-imposed sanctions, Iraq’s generally secular society became far more religious. This transformation even affected the secular Baathist regime, which gave Islam a bigger role in schools and other aspects of everyday life. Still, there were no social conflicts based on religious differences in the country.

    When the United States ousted Saddam Hussein in April 2003, crime spiked and full-scale looting erupted. But there were still no signs of sectarian clashes. That quickly changed, however, as the U.S. administration assumed control over Iraq, led by Paul Bremer.

    The statements along the line “they’ve been killing each other continuously for centuries” come mostly from “pro-US war” spin (e.g. Bush, Kissinger, Chalabi and selected presstitutes).

  61. alfred venison
    July 1st, 2014 at 18:20 | #61

    the germans abandoned rome, declared it an “open city”, and left it undefended.

    bradley took rome because italian communist partisans would certainly have taken it if he hadn’t.

    as they advanced towards germany, american, british & french commanders had a very real fear of red uprisings in friendly cities they had yet to liberate. -a.v.

  62. Megan
    July 1st, 2014 at 21:15 | #62

    “Information Clearing House” currently has this as one of their headline quotes:

    “Man has no right to kill his brother. It is no excuse that he does so in uniform: he only adds the infamy of servitude to the crime of murder” – Percy Bysshe Shelley


  63. July 2nd, 2014 at 09:04 | #63

    Bradley took Rome because he wanted to be famous. It’s hard to link Communist guerillas to, for his example, his bitter and sincere complaint that Eisenhower had deliberately arranged D-Day on 6 June to steal his thunder.

  64. Tim Macknay
    July 2nd, 2014 at 18:38 | #64

    @alfred venison

    don’t know where you get that, Tim Macknay.

    the argument that they fight each other now because they have fought each other for millennia is racist & ahistorical – it fails as an explanation of the present because it cannot account for periods in the past when in different circumstances they have not fought each other. -a.v.

    Yes, I certainly agree that the argument you describe is nonsensical – it’s true only in the trivial sense that if you take a millenia-long view, ‘everyone’ has been fighting ‘everyone’. It sheds absolutely no light on the causes of the present turmoil.

    I only meant that the relative stability of the Ottoman period provides scant solace for anyone looking for a solution to today’s conflict, since that stability was founded upon imperial rule, rather than any kind of popular sovereignty or social contract.

  65. alfred venison
    July 2nd, 2014 at 19:11 | #65

    are you saying the italian communist partisans would not have taken rome if the americans had pursued the german army instead?

    it is well known that american, british and french political & military leaders were concerned communist partisans would seize cities in italy & france before they could be “officially” liberated. you do know, don’t you, that the french communist party was very highly regarded by the population for its work in the resistance? as well regarded as de gaulle’s gov’t in exile?

    it is also well known that stalin was asking awkward questions at the same time about why he wasn’t involved in settling the question of axis italy like he was involved in settling the question of axis germany. how do you think rome falling to italian communist partisans would have played out in those circumstances? in light of these facts taking rome instead of pursuing the german army was a no-brainer. there is no need to resort to bradley’s ego to explain it, unless you think any other american general would have left rome to the communist partisans and all that entailed in order to pursue the german army. -a.v.

  66. alfred venison
    July 2nd, 2014 at 20:58 | #66

    i get it Tim, i just needed to be absolutely clear. they may not have elected the ottomans but there was a social contract between muslims and their rulers. -a.v.

  67. J-D
    July 3rd, 2014 at 06:50 | #67

    @alfred venison

    Many things that are ‘well known’ turn out not to be true when people check. Not all of them, but many.

  68. J-D
    July 3rd, 2014 at 06:53 | #68

    @alfred venison

    The ‘social contract’ between the Ottoman rulers and their subjects was this: if the subjects did nothing to upset their rulers, their rulers would not have them killed.

  69. alfred venison
    July 3rd, 2014 at 07:53 | #69

    its textbook history, J-D pure & simple. and its clear you know squat about muslim societies & how they were organised in pre-modern times. -a.v.

  70. Collin Street
    July 3rd, 2014 at 07:54 | #70

    @J-D: what’s your background in middle-eastern history, that you can make these statements?

    I mean, I don’t know very much at all about ottoman social policy, but it’s fairly common knowledge that the ottoman rulers saw much of their legitimacy deriving from their claim to the title of “caliph”, putting them as number-one person in charge of seeing the laws of god carried out, and that sharia law sets up a fairly significant social-policy framework, with a significant social-welfare system and even some protections for minorities.

    Presumably you wouldn’t be making the claim that the ottomans regarded their authority as absolute if you didn’t think it true. But with what I know, with what I think most people know, it seems pretty implausible. And the question I want you to think about is, is this difference of conclusion because you know things I don’t know, or because I know things you don’t?

  71. Tim Macknay
    July 3rd, 2014 at 11:53 | #71

    @alfred venison

    they may not have elected the ottomans but there was a social contract between muslims and their rulers.

    Fair enough – I won’t quibble with that. Not the ideal choice of words on my part, perhaps. My gist was that the Ottoman order was externally imposed. But I don’t think we’re actually disagreeing.

  72. may
    July 3rd, 2014 at 12:12 | #72

    he did it again!


    that aside, this is a good thread—pity about the idiot.

  73. J-D
    July 3rd, 2014 at 19:04 | #73

    @alfred venison

    Sometimes textbook statements turn out to be inaccurate when people check on them — not always, but sometimes.

  74. J-D
    July 3rd, 2014 at 19:06 | #74

    @Collin Street

    Did the Ottoman Sultans acquire the title of Caliph by agreement with their subjects? or did they seize it by force?

    Were there instances where the role of the Ottoman Sultans as Caliphs was used by their subjects to constrain their actions? or was it only used as official propaganda intended to enhance official authority?

  75. Collin Street
    July 3rd, 2014 at 23:18 | #75

    I don’t know, J-D. You’re the one who’s claiming to have all that knowledge.

  76. Megan
    July 3rd, 2014 at 23:50 | #76


    That’s not what Wikipedia says

    What does Wikipedia say about it, in your view?

    When I searched it for “sectarian violence” under “Iraq” the earliest reference was to 2006.

    Given that you usually just throw around questions but seldom state any position, it is reasonable – in the absence of evidence to the contrary – to conclude that you have an unspecified and unstated contrarian agenda.

    In my view you are a troll – with pretentions to sophistication, but a troll nonetheless.

    But snide asides aside, what was the Wikipedia reference you were thinking of to suggest that there was sectarian violence in Iraq before 2003?

  77. July 4th, 2014 at 04:43 | #77

    I just wonder whether it started with 28th June 1914. The assassination was apparently happenstance albeit a significant tipping point. Historical understanding might be informed by system science? Equally, we are witnessing contemporary political leaders who are blind to to implications of climate science.

  78. J-D
    July 6th, 2014 at 09:09 | #78

    @Collin Street

    The subject of the role of the Ottoman Sultans as Caliphs was introduced into this discussion by you, not by me. I assumed that you did so on the basis of some knowledge that made the subject relevant to the foregoing discussion. Should I not have done so? If you do have some knowledge that makes you think that the subject of the role of the Ottoman Sultans as Caliphs is relevant to this discussion, what was it? but if you don’t, why did you bring the subject up?

    If you have no further knowledge of the subject, does that mean you’d hypothetically be prepared to entertain the possibility that the title of Caliph was seized by the Ottoman Sultans by force, and that it was used by the Sultanate as a propaganda tool to enhance official authority but never by their subjects to constrain government action. In that hypothetical scenario, would you say that the role of the Ottoman Sultans as Caliphs was evidence of a social contract between them and their subjects?

    More generally, it’s my understanding, from my reading of history, that the Ottoman Sultanate was a military despotism. Do you have a different understanding? Do you consider that it’s meaningful to talk about a ‘social contract’ in a military despotism?

  79. J-D
    July 6th, 2014 at 09:22 | #79


    Since you ask, in Wikipedia I find this —

    In March 1991 revolts in the Shia-dominated southern Iraq started involving demoralized Iraqi Army troops and the anti-government Shia parties. Another wave of insurgency broke out shortly afterwards in the Kurdish populated northern Iraq (see 1991 uprisings in Iraq). Although they presented a serious threat to the Iraqi Ba’ath Party regime, Saddam Hussein managed to suppress the rebellions with massive and indiscriminate force and maintained power. They were ruthlessly crushed by the loyalist forces spearheaded by the Iraqi Republican Guard and the population was successfully terrorized. During the few weeks of unrest tens of thousands of people were killed. Many more died during the following months, while nearly two million Iraqis fled for their lives.

    — and this —

    Throughout the 1970s Shia became increasingly disaffected. al-Dawa (“the Call”), a political party dedicated to the establishment of an Islamic state in Iraq, was formed.

    Religious processions during Muharram in the shrine cities turned into political protests. After rioting in 1974 five members of the Daw’a party were executed after rioting in 1974 and in 1977 eight Shia were executed after worse rioting.

    The Islamic Revolution in Iran intensified unrest and repression. In June 1979 Ayatollah Mohammad Baqir al-Sadr was arrested and placed under house arrest. Less than a year later, after an attempt to assassinate Saddam Hussein, Sadr was executed. In 1982 the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq was formed in Iran by Iraqi cleric Mohammed Baqir al-Hakim as an umbrella group to overthrow the Sunnni-dominated Arab nationalist regime in Iraq. In Iran, Hakim attempted to unite and co-ordinate the activities of the Dawa party and other major religious Shi’i groupings (the Paykar group (a guerilla organization similar to the Iranian Mujahidin) and the Jama’at al ‘Ulama (groupings of pro-Khomeini ulema).

  80. J-D
    July 6th, 2014 at 20:23 | #80


    If you think of the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand as analogous to a spark and the First World War as analogous to the fire (or explosion) ignited by that spark, then you could continue that analogy by saying that it was the spark that caused the fire, but that a spark can’t start a fire where there’s no fuel, and also that the fuel for the fire of the First World War might just as easily have been ignited by another spark if (hypothetically) nobody had conspired to assassinate Franz Ferdinand.

  81. Megan
    July 6th, 2014 at 22:03 | #81


    Very interesting. And you seem to have grasped the “pre 2003” concept quite well.

    The quoted parts refer to political violence and repression.

    But where is your Wikipedia source that there was “sectarian violence in Iraq” pre-US invasion in 2003?

  82. July 7th, 2014 at 01:30 | #82

    J-D (@ #8, 1 Jul 2014) wrote:

    I don’t accept it as established fact that the Allies could have prevented the Germans from seizing control of Italy in 1943.

    Nor is it an “established fact” that the British and Americans, with total air and naval supremacy could not have prevented Germany’s conquest of Italy in July 1943.

    What is an established fact is that they didn’t even try.

    Nor did the commanders of the Italian Army serving the new supposedly anti-fascist government. The one Italian general who did try to prevent the German invasion was tried and executed as a war criminal by the British in 1946. Whilst few Italians, who had killed Ethiopians in 1936 with poison gas were, in any way, held to account for their crimes, this general was tried and executed. His “war crime” was that three British soldiers were killed attempting to escape from prisoner-of-war camps under his command. (The name of the Italian General escapes me, but I watched a documentary on ABC TV about it, possibly around 2006).

    It is also an established fact that the Americans and British conquered the rest of the Italian Peninsula in the most inept and unimaginative way possible over the next 21 months. Instead of using their naval and air supremacy imaginatively (with the arguable exception of the ineptly managed seaborne landing at Anzio in January 1944), they fought bloody battles of attrition all the way up the peninsula at a cost of over 300,000 allied dead and wounded in a addition to 159,000 Italian civilians dead.

    I have already shown that in 1944, after the British landed in Greece, they disarmed resistance fighters whilst secretly re-arming those who had collaborated with the Nazi invaders. The British subsequently unleashed these former Nazi collaborators onto their fellow countrymen in a bloody civil war. In the meantime, partisans who could have blocked the retreat of Germans along roads beneath mountains they controlled, were prevented from doing so.

    Similar events occurred in Vietnam and Korea. In Korea, the Americans rearmed Koreans who had collaborated the Japanese, whilst brutally repressing those who had fought against the Japanese.

    In Vietnam, the British started shooting Viet Minh who had resisted the Japanese, before they handed Vietnam handed back to its former colonial rulers, the French.

    Given all the above crimes of the British and American military commanders in the Second World War and in subsequent years, why shouldn’t we presume that they also allowed the Germans to reconquer Italy in July 1943, with all its terrible consequences, for the worst possible motives?

  83. July 7th, 2014 at 11:59 | #83

    My comment above (@ #32) has also been posted to my own web-site, candobetter_dot_net. Links to sources which confirm the claims made above and minor grammatical and factual errors have been corrected. Links to pages which show how, in 1944, the British armed Greeks who had collaborated with the Nazis (which I thought I had posted here), have been included. The section which explains how General Gracey ordered his soldiers to turn their guns on the Vietnamese and re-armed captured Japanese soldiers, and also turned them on the Vietnamese in August 1945, has been expanded.

  84. July 7th, 2014 at 13:34 | #84

    Correction; Mark Clark, not Bradley. Apologies.

  85. alfred venison
    July 7th, 2014 at 19:49 | #85

    don’t know about korea, but the viet minh were communists. the greeks the british disarmed were communists. the most motivated & competent resistance in italy were communists. do you see a pattern? -a.v.

  86. July 8th, 2014 at 02:15 | #86

    J-D thanks for the rare response to one of my comments. I don’t think the assassination was a spark, and did not say it was. I said it was a tipping point. I was merely noting it was an event much like those that may arise skiing down a slope without ski poles. This account does not suggest the driver took a wrong turn, having then to reverse.

    I suggest that the symbolic significance was the the Archduke and Sophia (a link to wisdom) were been driven in one of the new-fangled motor cars, with petrol engines introducing in their wake developments including fighter planes, the politics of petroleum, and much else. Presumably, the assassination may have been avoided. Could the First World War also have been averted?

  87. alfred venison
    July 8th, 2014 at 19:01 | #87

    well, remember (1) the caveat about not believing everything you read, and (2) corroboration. the account at “eyewitness to history dot com” is wrong. it is the only account i’ve ever read that says they were killed while the car was moving forward. it seems that, if the authors actually read any of the sources they cite, they forgot what was said in them when they came to write their piece. there is no room for “interpretation” of the facts here, there were hundreds of witnesses, drivers, guys on the running boards, and a police investigation that led to men being jailed & executed. in the case of an event like this an author reporting it either gets it right or gets it wrong: “eyewitness to history dot com” got it wrong. -a.v.

  88. July 9th, 2014 at 02:23 | #88

    What is the most reliable and detailed account then a.v.? A good account should exist somewhere.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/history/world-war-one/10930863/First-World-War-centenary-the-assassination-of-Franz-Ferdinand-as-it-happened.html provides some detail. The driver, was following the leading cars who were following the earlier plan to visit the National Museum. He was told to stop and go back. Apparently, the car had no reverse gear. It stopped and had to be pushed back. Gavrilo Princip was five feet away when he fired his gun. Nobody told the drivers of the change of plan. That seems an odd oversight, given one of the Black Hand group had thrown a stick of dynamite on the way to the Town Hall. The details of the planned route had been published in the newspapers. Furthermore, advice had been given to Ferdinand not go to Sarajevo.

  89. alfred venison
    July 9th, 2014 at 08:08 | #89

    hi wmmbb – for one the thing don’t reply on only one source. that’s what i mean by corroborate, for example if one source says they were moving and other sources say they weren’t moving . there are events in history the details of which are opaque, controversial & unsettled, but this is not one of them. -a.v.

  90. July 9th, 2014 at 13:35 | #90

    I agree. The assassination is an event and a story that should be fully and accurately told. I have not seen any suggestion of a conspiracy. However the consequences were extraordinary.

    On the assumption the Second World War was a development from the First, many of us would not have born. Equally, many who were born would have lived with living descendants.

  91. July 10th, 2014 at 13:48 | #91

    wmmbb (@ #38)

    A good account of the assassinations of Franz Ferdinand and Sophie (nee Chotek(?)) and the geopolitics of the Balkans and Austria-Hungary of the time. The failures of the Austro-Hungarian security service appear suspicious in the circumstances described by Richard Preston. That much incompetence and poor judgment seems implausible.

    Nearly 60 years later, on 22 November 1963, somewhat similar changes to a planned motorcade caused the death of another political leader. This caused another war, which would have otherwise ended in 1964, to escalate into the bloody conflagration in which somewhere between 1.1 million and 3.9 million died (according to Wikipedia) across the whole of Indochina.

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