A new sandpit for long side discussions, conspiracy theories, idees fixes and so on.
To be clear, the sandpit is for regular commenters to pursue points that distract from regular discussion, including conspiracy-theoretic takes on the issues at hand. It’s not meant as a forum for visiting conspiracy theorists, or trolls posing as such.
John Quiggin 
It is interesting that the radical Greens, radical indigenous leaders and aging conservative dinosaurs (like myself) are now united in proposing to vote “no” against the proposed “voice”.
My opposition is based on my understanding that, as Albanese has stated, the Parliament will control “voice” representatives. My question then : What is the point of it. Something will be given a constitutional right to exist that basically performs no other role than a representative committee that could be formed now without any referendum. That is – of course – unless we are being lied to by supporters of the “voice” who will seek to achieve greater permanent power. How might they do this? I don’t know because details of the “voice” arrangement are to be delivered after the referendum – to provide details now, according to Albanese, would be “divisive”. In other words Albanese wants the Australian electorate to be uninformed when it votes. This type of logic makes sense to some: Referenda are hard to get approved so be ambiguous about their intent so that strong views don’t form.
This opposition is now endorsed by the Greens and the radical indigenous “left” such as Michael Mansell, though for entirely different reasons. They want a treaty and perhaps constitutionally–enshrined representation in the Senate by indigenous parliamentarians. While it is pleasant not to be alone in opposing the referendum the basis for this opposition to the “voice” is something I don’t like. Having members of the Senate decided on racial grounds would be an inappropriate political institution in multicultural Australia. I am unsure about a divisive “treaty” as I don’t feel at war with indigenous Australia. Maybe but , again, details please! What wealth grab is being sought here?
I would like to see more indigenous Australian parliamentary representatives provided they think carefully about issues, are articulate and agree to represent all Australians not only the indigenous. Currently there are 6 representatives in the two houses who are indigenous or have indigenous ancestry. There are about 900,000 Australians who claim to be indigenous which is about 3% of the population. But indigenous MPs constitute only about 1.3% of the two houses. So perhaps a case for more indigenous members but for representing the whole community not only indigenous Australia.
Harry, will you admit;
1) that your personal beliefs were triggered by the worst news corporation “reporting” and
2) by reading the worst news corporation (and the AFR) without checking alternate – read unbiased balanced news – you have been fooled and
3) your understanding as you say “My opposition is based on my understanding” which is based on a lack of understanding and information as you say, using your lack of understanding as cover to deliver an uninformed polemic in the Sandpit, as oooosed to by posting in the Message board, to avoid censure
… all of which leads conformation of your radical, biased, ignorant rant and comment based on biased “reporting” as to who is and are the radicals, in your words “radical [insert group or view I’m opposed to] indigenous leaders”?
Which leads to a polariszed and dumb community and more social polarization instead of harmonization and providing the worst news corporation funding, enabling a worse outcome for both the outgroup and society at large. Your economics knowledge, vastly superior to mine, has several remidies for such, but your bias has overridden your knowledge. I’ve read your posts and papers. You are not really an “aging conservative dinosaurs (like myself)” in the real sense, just a normal biased human who chooses bias over brains when it suits you. Which is exactly why we are still trying to remedy past wrongs with suboptimal political fixes.
Me too in some cases Harry. Welcome to the human race.
See for example;
“On Tuesday, a report in the Australian newspaper suggested Thorpe [The Greens’ First Nations spokesperson] had spoken with Indigenous businessman Warren Mundine about their joint opposition to a referendum on the voice”….
…”Thorpe said the news report was “false and misleading” and stated “we did not discuss support for a ‘no’ campaign on voice and I will not be campaigning ‘no’”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/oct/11/lidia-thorpe-says-she-will-not-be-campaigning-no-against-indigenous-voice-to-parliament
Again Harry, You’re not really a conservative dinosaur, just a dogmatic someone, who has had their internal, historical and aged, and inappropriate views, manipulated by the worst “news” corporation” in the universe.
Final question, how does it feel to be manipulated and out yourself when you see your worst self in print, mirrored by a bunch of culture warriors who scream “we are being cancelled! ” at every turn, yet who have upwards of 70% reach with a platform to spu disinformation, most of whom wouldn’t get a C in your classes?
Time for golf then.
Just vote when and if required. You will be allowed to, even with outdated and incorrect information and biased world views – worse luck.
Final question Harry.
Do you think / believe First Nations people have been poorly treated and need some forms of reparation or affirmative action to ameliorate the worst effects of dispossession, intergenerational truama and terra nulius?
And please Harry, don’t pull the “too verbose” get out card. You are too well read and knowledgeable, and have all the time in the world to parse this text to lower yourself to fiening incomprehension and then dog whistling my text and insinuating I am at fault.
If you do use the tl:dr card, in the spirit of dialogue not adversarial discussion, paraphrase and ask for clarification. I’ll oblige.
Finally, your declaration of “now united in” is the slippery slope towards a continuation of a non united and equitable society. Just what your grandkids don’t need.
Have to say that on its own the Voice does seem like a nebulous concept.
Critics claim that the Voice lacks political power and will be like “singing in the wind”
Adam Bandt said that the order of activities should be changed from “voice, treaty, truth” to “truth, treaty, voice”
Michael Mansell supports a “treaty, a voice and truth telling” but does not support splitting the three objectives.
Vaccine for percieved “aging conservative dinosaurs (like myself)”… and News Kulcha Wars (and Crimea River)… “Mundine, who not only appears frequently on Bolt’s show but got a Sky News show of his own (with a government subsidy), joining the Sky Pravda Dark crowd.” …. “… because the idea is to publish the controversy, and the more heat and the less light, the better for all”.
Definitions:
“herpetological studies” = snake pit as in the greatest of news corporations.
“Groaning” is Judith Sloan
“Grundle”
– A big bunch , lots . For a grundle of ideas, go visit the website.
– To emit a grumble , or a lesser version thereof.
– A small grumble .
– A holloway ; a kind of ancient road or track.
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“In which the bro turns out to be a well-meaning, fully woke liberal, there’s a standard Groaning, and a Victa motor mower solution to global warming …
Tuesday, August 02, 2022
…
“The pond appreciates that line “not because I’m a conservative but because I’m a liberal” will produce howls of derision and gales of laughter, and so immediately decided to introduce a distraction in the form of a grundling …
“The grundle keeps grundling away in Crikey (paywall- crikey.com.au/2022/08/01/news-corp-australia-guardian-stolen-generations) raging at liberals and progressives giving SloMo rent-free living space in their heads (What’s wrong with a little creationism?, Who cares if tranny and poofter bashing is the new Xian sport?, Do the lizards of Oz live rent-free in the grundle’s head?)
“Every so often the prevert for the sake of perversity, the swimmer against the tide, the iconoclast, the determined eccentric, the nonconformist, the dissing dissident, the radical ratbag, steps out with a piece that shows the benefits of herpetological studies.
“It proves to the pond yet again the eternal healing power and the harmony of the spheres that can be produced by distracting a wayward grundling beast by getting back to the main game … ravaging reptiles.
“Have we finally found it? The single greatest self-own by News Corp in its long history of baiting left-liberal news? On Saturday the Guardian published an obituary of Archie Roach, in which the writer made reference to the “so-called ‘stolen generations’”. As the Guardian made clear when it removed the “so-called” the next day, the error was made in trying to introduce global readers to the concept of “stolen generations”. Not good enough for Sophie Elsworth, the culture war hack labelled “media reporter” who then ran a major story about what a disgrace this was.
“This will be news to News Corp’s readers, since their No. 1 boy, Andrew Bolt, has used his column and Sky News TV show for 20 years to deny that the Stolen Generations even existed — claiming, utterly incorrectly, that no child was removed for anything other than “welfare” reasons.
“Wait, it gets better. Who did they go to for a rent-a-quote about how racist the Guardian was? Nyunggai Warren Mundine, who was happy to dilate on how racist the Guardian was for leaving the “so-called” phrase up for 24 hours. Mundine, who not only appears frequently on Bolt’s show but got a Sky News show of his own (with a government subsidy), joining the Sky Pravda Dark crowd.
“You’d think this was a high price to pay to make the Guardian squirm a bit. Many of News Corp’s readers go there to have their reactionary views endlessly affirmed. Now they’re being told that it’s shocking shocking to use a phrase that (unintentionally) throws doubt on the Stolen Generations?
“What’s going on here? What’s going on is that debate around Indigenous issues is tearing News Corp apart. This has arisen because of the push for a “Voice”, championed by Noel Pearson, News Corp columnist and darling of Chris Mitchell, Paul Kelly and other grandees. The current push is being led by Chris Kenny (“led by Chris Kenny”, there’s a phrase) who warned that the chance of the Voice getting up should not be “destroyed by the left”. Yes, Chris, because that’s really the major threat to the Voice, not, say, The Bolt Report, the show your show directly precedes on Sky Pravda Dark.
“So is this some three-dimensional chess thing going on, the Oz playing both sides to advantage blah blah — haha, no. Truth is, it’s completely thrown by the comprehensive nature of the Coalition defeat, have no response to it, nothing to offer the right side of politics by way of guided reflection. Mostly, it’s thrown by what the 2022 election exposed — that it has no power to direct the vote. Powerlessness always has this effect — you end up squabbling like Russian exiles in a Paris teashop. With a bit of luck, News Corp will hack away at itself for months to come.
“Trouble is, powerlessness may well be one effect the Voice suffers, should it get going — its lack of ability to actually make anything happen will sew useless and unwanted division among its participants, as the frustration mounts at working in a constitutionally ordained talking shop. Still, that’s another issue. For the moment, get the kale popcorn and kombucha, sit back and watch The Australian enforce wokeness concerning the Stolen Generations. And stay tuned for the Paul Murray meat raffle. This week, tofurkey.
“Sorry, grundler, this day brofurkey, and allegedly a very liberal brofurkey at that, and as usual you’ve got it wrong … because the idea is to publish the controversy, and the more heat and the less light, the better for all … and if it takes the bromancer blathering on about state religions without a shred of irony from a follower of the Papal States, then so be it …
…
http://loonpond.blogspot.com/2022/08/in-which-bro-turns-out-to-be-well.html
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And we pay for Mundine on Sky!? Can’t find grant.
And we pay via The Menzies Reseach Center – News Corp copy really – for Nick Cater $267,854.80 – Grant# 137394 for … wait for it … Cultural Heritage! Ahahahaaa on us.
Harry, maybe apply. The Dept of Finance might pay you a quater of a mil for your Kulcha. Beats economics or research.
KT2, I have no response to you as you provide no argument. Just the insinuation that because I link to a News Corp article that I must be wrong. You don’t even provide information on the character of the wrongness in your guilt-by-association tirade. I did not, for example, refer to the Thorpe claims.
What are the substantive benefits to indigenous Australians of a “voice” that is controlled by the parliament? Why the need for a referendum on something that could be constituted tomorrow without fuss and without a referendum?
You are verbose and the discursive character of your comments never gets to the issue.
Harry, your comment wasn’t the issue. Your opinions were.
“unless we are being lied to by supporters of the “voice” who will seek to achieve greater permanent power. ”
“I am unsure about a divisive “treaty” as I don’t feel at war with indigenous Australia.” Groan.
“What wealth grab is being sought here?”
If this tweet is real:
As referenced here:
https://morningshots.thebulwark.com/p/kanye-elon-trump
… freedom to shout fire in a crowded theatre or speak by deranged mentally unwell antisemitic ex rockatars will assist in finding Elon’s $44bn bill for twitter.
See News Corp hacks for same:
http://loonpond.blogspot.com/2022/10/in-which-pond-is-constantly-triggered.html
Still on twitter after Musk takes charge?
Bought a Tesla?
You too then.
Gee, 2+ loons in a day. Rare.
I keenly await Musk’s 140-word solutions for Palestine, Kashmir, Korea, Yemen, Northern Ireland, the Spratlys, the Falklands, Nagorno-Karabakh, Kosovo, Kurdistan and other hotspots that have baffled professional diplomats for decades.
Subject: Musk war famine hypocrisy self delusion
James, I’d laugh at your comment if it were not so serious. Musk has achieved great things yet…
Musk outs himself as a self deciever and dissasociative. He could choose to save 42m humans for $6Bn, but asks his twitter followers.
It is a pity Feynman is not here to stick it to Musk: “Feynman’s cryptic remark, “no one is that much smarter…(how big do you want it!)” and “”The first principle is that you must not fool yourself — and you are the easiest person to fool.” fn^2.
Just to out myself, me too. I’ve been carefully informing my teenager about hypocrisy & self deceptions lately.
Musk echos JQ in tweets below, and is challenged by David Beasley the Head of the World Food Program (WFP) to enable “your [Musk’s paper wealth $36Bn] one-day increase would save 42 million lives that are knocking on famine’s door”.
JQ you invoke opportunity cost yet solely relating to Ukraine war.
In “Status quo ante bellum: what does it mean for the war in Ukraine”, JQ you write “An early Russian withdrawal would liberate tens of thousands of people from a brutal occupation, as well as preventing vast loss of life on both sides (bearing in mind that the Russian army will increasingly be made up of conscripts, including Ukrainians). And more of the aid flowing to Ukraine could be used for rebuilding, rather than expended in fighting.”.
I suggest a thread JQ on:
How do we compare opportunity costs of “tens of thousands of people from a brutal occupation, as well as preventing vast loss of life on both sides” verses David Beasley asking Musk to “save 42 million lives that are knocking on famine’s door”? Note: Beasley is “A member of the Republican Party, he served one term as the 113th Governor of South Carolina”.
Musk dissociates by asking his 100m+ “Twitter followers if he should sell Tesla shares.” to fund famine relief.
This reference;
…”We propose that this is achieved through dissociations of mental processes, …”
(fn^1. von Hippel & Trivers 2011)
… supports Musk’s dissociation as shown in his twitter exchange with:
“David Beasley, head of the U.N. food agency, tweeted a cheeky congratulations to Musk for reportedly earning $36 billion in a single day. “1/6 of your one-day increase would save 42 million lives that are knocking on famine’s door,” he wrote… Musk tweeted: “If WFP can describe on this Twitter thread exactly how $6B will solve world hunger, I will sell Tesla stock right now and do it.”
“Beasley tweeted him the math: “$.43 x 42,000,000 x 365 days = $6.6 billion.” That’s how much it would cost to provide one meal a day for one year to this population in need…The food aid, says WFP, consists of commodities such as rice, maize and high-energy biscuits. Elon Musk asked Twitter followers if he should sell Tesla shares. They said yes.”
We have Musk on Musk to show his folly and hypocrisy. Hypocrisy example meshes with his self deception, dissociation and delusion of grandeur, hence James comment above. “You are assuming that I wish to be popular. I don’t care” … ” yet Musk asked Twitter followers if he should sell Tesla shares.” to fund $6bn WFP aid.
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“Recent quotes by Elon Musk:
“You are assuming that I wish to be popular. I don’t care. I do care that millions of people may die needlessly for an essentially identical outcome.
Russia is doing partial mobilization. They go to full war mobilization if Crimea is at risk. Death on both sides will be devastating.
Russia has >3 times population of Ukraine, so victory for Ukraine is unlikely in total war. If you care about the people of Ukraine, seek peace.3 October 2022 tweet
“Elon Musk asked Twitter followers if he should sell Tesla shares. They said yes.How $6 billion from Elon Musk could feed millions on the brink of famine,”
“A good sign as to whether there is free speech is, “Is someone you don’t like allowed to say something you don’t like?” Elon Musk talks Twitter, Tesla and how his brain works — live at TED2022, April 14, 2022 (at 19:39)
“This is not a way to make money…. I don’t care about the economics at all.This is just my strong, intuitive sense … that having a public platform that is maximally trusted and broadly inclusive is extremely important to the future of civilization Elon Musk launches hostile bid for Twitter claiming free-speech concerns (Apr 14, 2022)
“Do you still have a half billion dollar short position against Tesla?
Sorry, but I cannot take your philanthropy on climate change seriously when you have a massive short position against Tesla, the company doing the most to solve climate change.22 April 2022 reply to Bill Gates per Business Insider article
“NBC basically saying Republicans are Nazis … Same org that covered up Hunter Biden laptop story, had Harvey Weinstein story early & killed it & built Matt Lauer his rape office. Lovely people.2 May 2022 tweet
“True experts even read wiki citations 12 June 2022 tweet, accompanied by a picture of 5 people on a subway thinking in unison “Look at these normies. I’m so schizo and esoteric, these people have no idea of the deep forbidden knowledge I acquired from google and wikipedia.”Let’s try this then: the will of the people who live in the Donbas & Crimea should decide whether they’re part of Russia or Ukraine 3 October 2022 poll on Twitter – the voting options were ‘yes’ and ‘no’
“You are assuming that I wish to be popular. I don’t care. I do care that millions of people may die needlessly for an essentially identical outcome.
Russia is doing partial mobilization. They go to full war mobilization if Crimea is at risk. Death on both sides will be devastating.
Russia has >3 times population of Ukraine, so victory for Ukraine is unlikely in total war. If you care about the people of Ukraine, seek peace.3 October 2022 tweet
“I still very much support Ukraine, but am convinced that massive escalation of the war will cause great harm to Ukraine and possibly the world.3 October 2022 (7:47pm) tweet
“Quotes about Musk
“In October, David Beasley, head of the U.N. food agency, tweeted a cheeky congratulations to Musk for reportedly earning $36 billion in a single day. “1/6 of your one-day increase would save 42 million lives that are knocking on famine’s door,” he wrote… Musk tweeted: “If WFP can describe on this Twitter thread exactly how $6B will solve world hunger, I will sell Tesla stock right now and do it.” …Beasley quickly clarified that his earlier tweet referred to feeding “people on the brink of starvation” and not solving world hunger, he invited Musk to meet “anywhere—Earth or space” to discuss the potential donation. So far, Musk has made no commitments to the agency. Still… How much of a dent would $6 billion make when it comes to feeding millions? …WFP raised $8.4 billion last year, yet the global food crisis has only worsened. In fact, since Musk and Beasley first started their Twitter conversation, the total number of people at risk of famine has risen to 45 million… In response to Musk’s request for details, Beasley tweeted him the math: “$.43 x 42,000,000 x 365 days = $6.6 billion.” That’s how much it would cost to provide one meal a day for one year to this population in need…The food aid, says WFP, consists of commodities such as rice, maize and high-energy biscuits. Elon Musk asked Twitter followers if he should sell Tesla shares. They said yes. How $6 billion from Elon Musk could feed millions on the brink of famine, Joanne Lu, NPR, November 11, 2021
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Elon_Musk
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fn^1
“We propose that this is achieved through dissociations of mental processes, The evolution and psychology of self-deception…”
03 February 2011
William von Hippel and Robert Trivers
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/behavioral-and-brain-sciences/article/abs/evolution-and-psychology-of-selfdeception/B87968EC4A6B4DC93A21C217ABC13E13
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fn^2
“We scientists are clever — too clever — are you not satisfied? Is four square miles in one bomb not enough? Men are still thinking. Just tell us how big you want it!”
note (c. 1945), quoted in Genius: The Life and Science of Richard Feynman(1992) by James Gleick, p. 204
“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself — and you are the easiest person to fool.”
Cargo Cult Science”, adapted from a 1974 Caltech commencement address; also published in Surely You’re Joking, Mr. Feynman!, p. 343
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Richard_Feynman
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Time for more tsundoku – Feynman’s books – to constantly remind myself how ignorant I am. Thanks.
James Wimberley,
How many words will be required to solve the problem of Elon Musk?
Ernestine – correction – “worlds”.
Answer: 2
A rare trifecta of loons this week, with “Mr”John Quiggin in the AFR in 2010 getting a run.
All the usual ratbags conspirators with, of course a certain Australian newspaper’s conservative dinonsaur hacks and “sinister plotters behind the climate change FUD movement” featuring prominently.
Good selection of cartoons to ease your pain.
JQ, we love to hear an update on this piece considering recent events and never ending bile from teh [sic] oz.
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. ..”Now back to cuckoo Claire, completely ignoring real ratbags of the Jones kind … and speaking of him, what about a trip back in time to John Quiggin in the AFR back in January 2010 (might be paywall affected) …
“Tepid conspiracy theory
“Assertions that there is a sinister plot behind the climate change movement are flawed, writes John Quiggin.
John Quiggin
Updated Jan 28, 2010 – 8.33am,first published at Jan 27, 2010 – 9.20pm
https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/tepid-conspiracy-theory-20100127-iw50u
…” Necessary? Not any more Mr Quiggin, but they were grand days, grand conspiracies, but sadly the pond must return to crackpot Claire doing diligent Q work …”
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Via
http://loonpond.blogspot.com/2022/10/in-which-friday-ritual-with-hole-in.html
At this stage we can’t be sure what the exact wording of the proposed change to the Constitution will be, but we do know Anthony Albanese’s suggested wording and under that, although I may have missed something, I’m close to sure that no new constitutional power will be created that doesn’t already exist under the Constitution as it is now. The Parliament may legislate to give powers to the proposed body, but they could do that now, anyway; and the Parliament will be able to take away any powers it grants. Under Anthony Albanese’s suggestion (unless I have missed something), the proposed body will have no way of increasing its own powers without Parliament’s approval.
Part of the answer to that is that it will make people feel better. You may not be one of those people, and I may not be one of them either, but if it comes to the point of voting in a referendum, and if the choice is in fact between a ‘Yes’ vote whose effect will be to make (other) people feel better and a ‘No’ vote whose effect will be to make (other) people feel worse, I will find it easy to decide to vote ‘Yes’ as clearly the better choice.
The historic and ancestral occupation – and it’s forced denial and dispossession – look more worthy of constitutional recognition than the possession by the British Monarchy of Australia based on falsely claiming the place was unoccupied. I don’t see it as about Aboriginal “race” but about recognition of that historic enduring occupation and heritage. I seriously doubt we will get an Indigenous Voice to Parliament that has any real power to propose, veto or overturn legislation – more symbolism than power but my own view is that to err by symbolically affirming that history looks less concerning than erring by denying it.
I recall well the response of the Federal government of the time, that vigorously opposed Mr Mabo’s legitimate claims and when the court’s decision went against the government’s own ongoing legal efforts to fight Mr Mabo’s claims, then sought to legislate it away. It “justified” this by promoting alarmist (ie false) fears of people losing their backyards to Aboriginal land rights. I found the symbolism of THAT to be abhorrent.
We’ve a long way to go before we can understand aboriginal culture and their ways. A very long way.
There is an important difference between these things.
The power to propose legislation is one that everybody already has (which is just as it should be). There is a law which you think would be a good idea? You can propose it! I wouldn’t expect your proposal to come to anything, but that doesn’t mean you can’t make it. You don’t need permission from the Constitution or the law to do so. Any individual or organisation in Australia (including Aboriginal individuals and organisations) can propose legislation, and there’s no good reason to fear such a power.
Ken Fabian, Eddie Mabo was still alive proving connection to country.
The legislation left all the dead unable to prove a connection, compliments of conservative white dinosaurs scared of sharing and shaming themselves.
We are now proposing a toothless voice, with less access than lobbyists. Climate Douncil for example. And some are still whining.
At least The Voice will be close enough to parliament so if they all shout really loud, they may just get heard and still basically be ignored ala Climate Council.
“Geez Barnaby, what is that racquet “
J-D – I was thinking of the power to put legislation directly before Parliament, bypassing the need for an MP to table it – but I don’t see any Voice to Parliament as likely to have any such direct powers; it’s influence is probably going to rely on having the words of it’s Voice entered into the public record and influence public opinion.
KT2 I don’t know that anything that gives direct powers can win sufficient support; it is primarily about symbolism, but I do think symbolism has a lot of indirect power. Let’s see what form the actual Voice is given but just getting to have it on the agenda at all is indicative of a shift of attitudes within our society.
I want to reiterate that I do find the “it’s racist” objections especially objectionable – King Charles is our Head of State by his ancestry; even if ancestry and race overlap they aren’t the same thing. Were the Sovereign married to a nice Koori woman and the crown prince were their son it would be his ancestry, not his race that counts.
+1 “I do find the “it’s racist” objections especially objectionable”.
The purpose of a Voice to Parliament is super, super simple.
Indigenous affairs is not a vote-winning portfolio because there are so few Aboriginal swing voters. That power vacuum means that when governments don’t simply ignore it entirely, it is often dominated either by well-meaning but unaccountable and ineffectual not-for-profits which are typically feeble and hidebound by process, or worse, outright racists with racist objectives.
These groups dominate because of a simple lack of democratic accountability. What the voice does is create a group that can hold the ministry accountable by being elected by Aboriginal people directly.
For instance: if a malicious government wants to do something nasty – Tony Abbott wants to close a bunch of WA communities, Howard sends tanks into the NT – the Voice is the legitimate, elected, voice of Aboriginal people. They can say “no, that’s a bad idea” or “it’s not a dreadful idea on its face; here’s how that could be executed better”. Because it’s actually no-joke the real representative of actual Aboriginal people the media will quote it and this will impose a political cost on the political leader for doing nasty stuff. Movement conservative cannot hire Aboriginal people like Warren Mundine or Jacinta Price to mouth conservative bromides and falsely claim their mercenary behavior reflects the “real” views of Aboriginal people as a whole. They aren’t really representative, and we can prove it by simply making a single phone call to the elected voice of Aboriginal people who really exist, actually, in fact. (Because most of the people who elected Senator Price were not Indigenous, she is not a representative of Indigenous people).
Another example: it helps governments that are non-malicious to sharpen Indigenous policy so it actually reflects the interests and views of actual Aboriginal people. Not the not-for-profit industrial complex; actual Aboriginal people who really exist. New Zealand has made far more progress than Australia on this because its government department, Te Arawhiti, is democratically accountable through the Maori seats to actual Maori people who really exist.
Yes Lt Fred.
I’ve formed the opinion that they know best about what is best for them and that this is what they want. I don’t think that my ignorance on their culture should obstruct their way.
Bayes, probability, odds. I’ll go with the odds. I have to walk probabilities, I’m not able to jump. Odds, I can jump around.
Ikonoclast, this is made for you and I.
And probably – odds are – you too will likely find this refresher refreshing. Especially for understanding medical test results.
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“About Likelihood Ratios, also sometimes called Bayes Factors
“The medical test paradox, and redesigning Bayes’ rule
Description
“…while the terms “Bayes Factor” and “Likelihood Ratio” refer to the same ratio in this setting, where Bayes rule is used on the probability of an event with only two possible outcomes (you either have the disease or you don’t), they do take on divergent meanings in more general contexts.
“Namely, if you have a continuous parameter you are trying to estimate, the two terms reflect two alternate approaches you can use in comparing hypotheses. In fact, some people take the phrase “Bayes factor” to specifically refer to its use in this more continuous context.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes_factor#Example
This post has some nice discussion of the distinction:
https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/27345/likelihood-ratio-vs-bayes-factor
Timetable:
0:00 – What is the paradox?
5:53 – The Bayes factor
11:00 – The snazzy Bayes rule
14:42 – Contrast with the usual formula
Another video on Bayes’ theorem: https://youtu.be/HZGCoVF3YvM
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JQ: “One in 1,000 years? Old flood probabilities no longer hold water
https://theconversation.com/one-in-1-000-years-old-flood-probabilities-no-longer-hold-water-178524