Federal Labor’s recent resurgence in the polls doesn’t surprise me. Even when Labor was at its lowest ebb last year, I pointed out the baselessness of the idea that Howard had captured the hearts of the electorate and argued that Labor has become, in the absence of foreign policy crises or spectacular incompetence, the natural party of government in Australia. I think we are seeing in part the same phenomenon as in 1996. Having won an election against the better judgement of the voters, the government now has six years of sins to atone for instead of just three. But over and above this is the fact that, on tax and expenditure issues, the electorate is well to the left of both major parties.
What’s more striking than the Federal results in many respects is this Newspoll on the Carr government, which, I think it’s fair to say, has displayed some pretty spectacular incompetence over the last couple of months, what with the rail and hospital crises and the botched attempt to railroad the (spectacularly incompetent) former Communications Minister Michael Lee into office as Lord Mayor of Sydney. Carr’s personal popularity has taken a beating as a result of all this. But
On the two-party-preferred vote, however, Labor still remains in a much stronger position than the Coalition. Labor has 54 per cent support, slightly down from 56 per cent at the state election, while the Coalition is at 46 per cent, slightly up from 43.8 per cent.
This suggests to me that it will take a truly catastrophic display of incompetence by Labor for the Liberals to win a state election in Australia, as long as they remain the party of small government, privatisation and tax cuts.
John Quiggin 
The Coalition Government at Federal level gives the impression that people have been taken for mugs too many times since 1996.
We are asked to take on face value the idea that without being charged and being kept in inhumane conditions David Hicks is guilty of crimes in relation to his activities in Afgahnistan. Whose intelligence is being brought into question on this issue? What Intelligence Service got it wrong in Iraq? Which Intelligence Service has been shown to have provided advice that was less than the truth? Can the government always sheet home blame to the public service?
Which government has centralised and politicised the public service leaving it without a strong base for gathering information on the issues which are important to those of us who choose to live outside Canberra?
Which government has denied funding to the ABS which is another source of information? Which government has stated that the only way that it can help the environment is through the sale of Telstra whilst reducing the staff and therefore the effectiveness of the Department of Environment and Heritage. .
Is it any wonder that the Coalition is out of touch with the people of Australia and feels that the only way to win the next election is to pork barrel. The trouble is that the Catholic vote is likely to be tempered by those parents who would like their child to be able to attend university without going bankrupt. Veterans are also likely to see the backslapping when they go to war whilst ignoring the anguish of those who return as a mere cynical exercise.
There are no doubt many voters who chose a Liberal/Coalition party to support at the last election as they were concerned about having all labor governments. It has now become apparent that all Labor is probably preferable for health and education where the National government uses a recipe for increasingly poor results and preferential treatment for those best able to look after themselves. The state Liberals seem to offer more of the same which results in the average person having less control and less choice in their lives.
This leaves the State Labor Governments in a very strong position.
The minority in key seats benefitting from the policies put forward by the Liberal coalition may be enough to re-elect the party federally- the different electorates at state level means that electors in general will continue to support the party which seems like a friend to most rather than the party which seems to be a friend to big business and vested personal and overseas interests.
“This suggests to me that it will take a truly catastrophic display of incompetence by Labor for the Liberals to win a state election in Australia, as long as they remain the party of small government, privatisation and tax cuts.”
If only the Liberals were a party of small government and tax cuts the people might actually vote for them. How often do you hear a Liberal calling for LESS spending? Down hear in Victoria all we get is boofhead Doyle whinging that Bracks in not doing enough for this special interest group and not enough for that special interest group.
I’d like to hear Doyle or any other Liberal for once say that government is not the solution to every problem. If people want money they should get a job, not stick their hand out.
Good one John … that poll struck me exactly the same way … that is, as extraordinary proof of how thoroughly on the nose the conservative parties now are.
Mike Hunt spoiled it all with that last sentence, because the whole thing becomes like “let them eat cake”. Without that, it’s an accurate philosophical description of an ideal world, which we have not got but which we should work towards, in which there was no dependency which politicians rush to fill (and so buy themselves a base).
The better task of governments is to work themselves out of a job – not to perpetuate the problem as left wingers would recommend, but not to walk away and leave the job undone either, mistakenly claiming that there was no problem needing attention. As it is, right now, “fend for yourself” doesn’t work since so many work so actively at all levels to ringbark that. It’s worse than telling people to eat cake – it’s telling them to swim against the rip.
More a case for me of, occasionally all the planets line up, but that’s not an explanation of a solar system. It does come down to how good the management team is for each election, assuming there is no major burning issue or cock-up facing the incumbent at the time. In SA the Libs took over from a Dunstan era after the State Bank debt debacle. The Rann Labor govt was installed after privatisation of ETSA proved problematic for consumers’ electricity bills.
Since the States largely spend the Federal tax take, the argument will to a large extent, hinge around how best to spend it, but sound management will always be an issue. (In the other states, it does appear that Libs have allowed their teams to disintegrate to a level that Federal Labor has recently). Short of any major economic shocks to the system, this should favour incumbents. With a long economic boom in Australia, incumbents should be doing well. An economic recession might test the friendship of the electorate however. Generally for most of us, with no burning issue at stake, we opt for the best managers at the time, given the fact it’s hard to put a feeler gauge between the majors on most policy.
At the moment the State Premiers have an easy ride blaming a Howard for there shortcomings. It won’t be that easy if Latham gets up. Then we’ll see how the electorate has a taste for all the planets aligning.
I must take issue with John’s claim that the Carr government “has displayed some pretty spectacular incompetence over the last couple of months”. The display has gone on a lot longer than a couple of months.
Most of it’s recent awful run is a result of quite old chickens coming home to roost.
DD, I agree. In fact, commenting on the last NSW election, I noted .
But of course, this only strengthens my point
“it will take a truly catastrophic display of incompetence by Labor for the Liberals to win a state election in Australia”
Not entirely true. Labor will lose next time in WA.
Dave, I think you’re probably right there, though it looks as if the Libs may display the spectacular incompetence needed to lose.
The Liberals in WA have an amazing capacity for suicide. They should take Gallop to the cleaners for being a spineless, mediocre Premier, but then that would mean those on the other side of the Assembly would have to get organised, something they have not shown a capacity for.
Repost: Coalition faultines
As Fred Nile has made it rain in Sydney tonight, and because more folks than usual might therefore be tempted to give the Madi Gras parade a miss and go looking for reading in the ‘sphere instead, I’ve reposted a…