It’s Monday here in Paris, but just about Tuesday at home. I should be back on deck in a few days. In the meantime, talk among yourselves (even while I’m away, I expect civilised discussion and no coarse language.
19 thoughts on “Monday Message Board”
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John Quiggin 
actually…its sunday here in australia, so im not sure how you got to monday in paris before us…
but anyhoo… enjoy summer while it lasts…
You have evidently forgotten, c3po, that the French got out of synch when they adopted the 35-hour week.
The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Winter 2004 (subscription only) has an article by Emily Oster “Witchcraft, Weather and Economic Growth in Renaissance Europe” which explains the execution of witches in the 1590s and between 1680-1790 in terms of the “Little Ice Age” which destroyed crops and led to violent scapegoating. At times up to 400 witches cper day were being executed during this period.
Temperatures during the worst of this period fell 2 degrees Fahrenheit below previous centuries — the cold was bad enough to routinely freeze the Thames in England.
The temperature fall is greater than the rise claimed to be evidence of recent ‘global warming’ issues and yet is purely non-anthropomorphic — reasons are unknown but there were a few volcanic eruptions at the time.
Despite the vehemence with which proponents of current global warming present their claims as fact rather than hypotheses to be tested the evidence still seems mixed to me and this witchcraft argument brought the issues home quite clearly. Who will we persecute if non-anthropomorphic warming causes economic losses today?
Apart from making me think about global warming the article by Oster is just a good read in one of the more interesting modern economic journals.
Harry, it sounds like a plausible hypothesis.
Another interesting (and not mutually exclusive) explanation relates to the emergence of modern medicine. According to this theory, the control of medicine by males was aided by the public persecution of women ‘healers’ who were often called witches. This hypothesis was advanced in a book – Wifes, Midwifes and Witches (I cant remember the author). Cause and effect is an obvious issue here – was male control of medicine the result of the persecution of female witches, or was the persecution used to vest control of medicine? Similar arguments about the redistributive motives and effects of witchcraft trials have been raised for the Salem trials etc.
Harry, what’s the suggestion regarding causality rather than correlation in the article?
Was Colon Powell’s song and dance the other night:
a) a State Department initiative to promote the election of Wiranto today?
b) a State Department initiative to prevent the continuance of Megawati?
c) the beginning of a new long-term US programme to promote world peace?
d) just a bit of fun for its own sake?
You know, we could really muck up here. What would the Prof would do if we all started swearing while he can’t see us?
Mark, The argument is that it was commonly believed witches could control the climate (some early Church figures regarded this as superstition) so that when things got cold the witches were blamed for it. There were also effects from the deteriorating economy on the number of executions — with increased angst more got burned!
Author also mentions evidence of increased numbers of black lynchings in the US when the US economy deteriorated.
Harry,
A decline in solar activity was, at least in part, responsible for the little ice age. Other contributing factors include volcanic activity (as you suggest) and a very interesting hypothesis – an increase in disease led to a significant decrease in human population led to increase in forests led to a decrease in atmospheric CO2 levels led to decreased temperatures.
The Little Ice Age, however, didn’t effect global temperatures to the same degree as has the current warming trend. The distinction between global and regional climate change is frequent lost on global warming skeptics.
The theory of global warming relies on two fundamental and testable scientific theories; that warm bodies radiate heat and that certain gases absorb IR radiation. What is debated (by scientists at least) isn’t the existence of human induced global warming, but rather the magnitude. Contrary to your assertion that the theory is untested, global warming theory has been tested many many times in the scientific literature. An example is the confirmation of a water vapour being a strong positive feedback which came from data from Mt. Pinatubo.
An intriguing theory on witch persecution and abnormal weather was aired on SBS a few years back. High levels of moisture and cool temperatures leads to a fungus/rot on wheat. The fungus is quite similar to LSD.
The theory was proposed that in times of poor weather, the poor in towns would have to use all the wheat (including the mould ridden stuff) and would basically trip. Thus the visions of things flying, talking cows, etc.
That doco also highlighted the link between mini ice ages and executions for witchcraft. (Salem was the primary example though).
Thanks, Harry, that’s interesting and makes some sense as one causal factor. With regard to RoD’s point, there has been a massive historical debate on the witch trials extending over several decades. There is a currently fashionable view (encouraged by the exponents of neo-paganism) that witches were some kind of underground pagan sect. However, the consensus among historians is that the persecutions were motivated by elite agendas – and that the accused witches were probably not engaging in the things inquisitors and judicial officials said they were. Those tried as witches tended to be marginal members of small communities under strain – for instance single old women who might be an economic burden on the community as a whole. So there could be some validity from a more interpretative view that deteriorating climatic conditions (and thus economic conditions in an agricultural economy producing only small or occasional surpluses) might have been one causal factor in the witch trials. I’d be inclined to assign priority to social, political and economic explanations over climatic ones, though. But it’s interesting, certainly!
The link to food is not linked to wheat but to Rye. Studies have been done (which I am unable to cite or verify here) linking the witches persecuted in Salem to an area of town where an ergot – a fungal disease of rye – developed. The same phenomenon developed in European regions.
The persecutions were well before the male doctors took over as healers but the same forces were at work – Women who were believed to have power but little status were a convenient scapegoat for anyone who bore a grudge or looked for life and death theatre. As a tool it was most effective in keeping people in their rightful downtrodden place. (Sounds like Iraq today).
I have been watching the power of the press at work in helping the government get re-elected. Why wouldn’t they with so many millions in advertising dollars at stake. Who would want to be that section of the press missing out on such a big advertising account?
Has anyone else noticed that suddenly the press is going for Mark Latham’s jugular?
The allegation from years ago of some biffo which obviously never went to court or anywhere such a charge could be proved is put around the media as if it is more relevant than John Howard’s comments about Asian immigration which occurred at about the same time.
How much damage will it do though? Every weekend many of the nation’s finest watch footy just for the biffo which leads footballers to become something akin to gods.
Meantime everyone is sick and tired of Alexander Downer being offended by the latest in offensive remarks – which just happen to be true.
Congratulations JQ on publishing a weblog for 2 years. It is a great achievement. Probably the idea hasn’t taken off as much as you thought because there are few of us with opinions worth reading everyday, with the energy for developing and maintaining such a site and the time to do it.
I am glad that you have done so and hopefully will continue to do so as it means that I don’t rely on TV and the ABC and the occasional newspaper and have the opportunity to participate occasionally.
I can recall watching an anthropological whodunnit series some months ago that backed up what RoD was saying. Apparently the fungus was one that affected rye which was the grain of common bread eaters. The first clue came from a well preserved body found recovered from a bog in Europe. The male had his hands tied and had been garrotted, as well as axed in the head with a sharp implement as I recall. Clearly someone or some people wanted to make sure he was dead in an unusually thorough manner. The body was well preserved by the bog and a thorough autopsy was undertaken. The contents of the stomach revealed a meal of rye bread, with evidence of a rare rye fungus. This fungus was known to cause hallucinations as well as a horrible affliction of the skin, as if ants were biting the afflicted person underneath the skin. The sufferer was virtually driven mad by this. The assumption was that they would be presumed to be possessed and as such were executed to save the townsfolk.
Now the particular fungus was known to occur under certain extremes of moisture and weather patterns, which led to a search to check for such climactic evidence, coinciding with records of ‘witch’ killings. The evidence of tree ring growth patterns showed a remarkable correlation around Europe and also in Salem. It was assumed that this was the answer to the patterns of killing of such ‘possessed’ people.
observa, that may be right about the fungus but witches and “possessed people” were treated differently. witches were deemed to have been rational agents entering into a deal with the devil – thus being even worse than possessed people who were invaded against their will. thus the church recommended exorcism for demonic possession, but death for witches. I’m a little unclear about the geographical and historical specificity of the evidence you cite – anthropological evidence from a bog would presumably be from some thousands of years ago rather than hundreds. also, the cultural patterns and religious beliefs prevalent in puritan New England were quite dissimilar to those prevailing in continental Europe.
Mark,
Sorry I can’t help with the specifics, but it was one episode of a series of historical whodunnits(ABC or perhaps SBS)which involved a sort of CSI type historical investigation. I’m thinking the body in the bog was from the middle ages but can’t be sure. The point of the investigation was that the body showed the fungus clue, which led investigators to study the known records of witch killings and then correlate it with the best climactic evidence. This checked out very well, including the incidence of the Salem witches.
Thanks to all who corrected me on the wheat thing… yes it was the rye used in the bread. Shoulda ‘googled’ that before mailing.
The Salem evidence was particularly good as the primary evidence survived. The people who made the claims of having witnessed witchcraft (enchanted animals, flying people, etc) were all residents near the lower fields and that field had the rye fungus that year.
The rich folks of Salem (eg. the judges) had no hallucinations and got their rye from the higher field which had better drainage and thus no rot on the rye. So their persecution of women was solely due to their cultural attitudes and perspectives.
Speculation about links between burning witches and climate change is idle. We simply don’t know enough about how much energy and fossil carbon is released, at least net after allowing for any change in the stock of active witches.
Come on, think Occam. People burnt witches to keep warm, and the carbon dioxide changed the climate and made the place warmer.
Buy my tee shirt: I’m stupid and I vote.
Sorry. I don’t know what came over me. It must be the rye bread.