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John Quiggin 
This is Dave in Victoria with just a quick note to all the climate change denialists who post on this board.
I have seen Victoria suffer weather and temperatures the like of which we have never seen before. I’ve seen rainfall collapse and this state turn slowly into a baking desert.
I want to explain to you morons that this has gone beyond your little tinfoil-hat denialist theories as to why its not happening to be a real thing we are living now. I want you to explain to me that this weather is all normal, and part of normal cycles. Go on, do it.
Nothing would give me more pleasure than to put all your denialist morons on your own planet, where you can pump out co2 and I can watch you burn. But until then, I am stuck on this planet, and every single time you come out with your pathetic denialist garbage, expect a strong reaction from the people actually living it.
Ok?
John, if I may reply to Dave by saying you have every wright to get stuck into the climate change skeptics but the tragedy in Victoria was more than just high temperatures for there seems to be a myriad of factors contributing to the disaster. Furthermore, what may seem abnormally high temperatures at this time of year was in fact normal during the 1970s especially in parts of NSW which lasted for weeks on end during February.
john,
if i may ask michael whether more than 60% of Queensland was underwater during these hot temperatures in NSW in the 1970’s
Of course there will always be a multitude of factors involved in a disaster like this, but the incidence of very hot days (an indicator of climate change) is surely one of them. I did a quick fit to BOM time series data on the number of days over 40 degrees from 1957 to 2008 and found a 40% increase over this period (though the coeffiecient of variation is high). Seven of the 16 years with over 14 very hot days have occurred since 2001. It would be useful to have disaggregated data for Victoria.
I wouldn’t call climate deniers “morons”.
They are motivated by short-term economic interests and ignore the future interests of today’s younger people.
Denial is the last refuge they have.
John, if I may reply to smiths by saying when we travelled north during the late 1970s there were parts of NSW and central QLD which were bone dry. But having said that, there was also evidence of inland roads in NSW and QLD that where flood damaged.
Chris, no doubt there’s some truth to that. Yet a couple I know with young children both hold take the denialist position. They are very fond of their children so, presumably, not inclined to ignore the future of today’s younger people. They are bright, educated people and generally not given to contrariness and, apart from climate change, don’t have much to say about science or the environment.
I am curious to know what motivates this particular thinking. Unfortunately, my wife insists I don’t spoil things by arguing with our friends. Maybe someone else can shed some light on this.
Well said Dave # 1!!
First up, the Victorian bushfires are a tragedy and my condolences go to all those affected.
However, I have been wondering about the utility of so much money being donated to unaccountable charities. As I understand it they often have quite high admin costs relative to the monies they receive. We don’t know how much of the money they hold onto for their own purposes and how much is distributed (and to whom).
I wonder wouldn’t it be better for the government to establish some sort of administered fund where people could donate. It would be accountable to the donators, and could publish info on the web indicating how the money was distributed and the admin costs of managing the money. More than likely a greater proportion of the money (compared with private charities) would go to those who need it most.
Michael, you may not have noticed this, but NSW and Central QLD are quite a lot closer to the equator than Melbourne. This would at least partly explain why they were hot and dry in the 1970s.
Re boconnor’s remarks at #9, one wonders how much of the money from Bob Geldof’s 1985 “Live Aid” Ethiopian famine fundraising brouhaha actually reached any needy people – most of it probably ended up straight in the pockets of the disgustingly murderous regime which had caused the Ethiopian famine in the first place. Still, I daresay that Australian charities are more honest than that.
7# Kevinlj
“I am curious to know what motivates this particular thinking. Unfortunately, my wife insists I don’t spoil things by arguing with our friends. Maybe someone else can shed some light on this.”
When we went to war in Iraq I was so horrified and disgusted and it was completely out of my understanding that Australia (yes I had always thought we were relatively peaceful like Canada or New Zealand and that we didnt go deliberately starting wars) needed in any way shape or form to involve itself in that exercise (and not for a minute could I link the attack on Iraq to Osama Bin Laden seeing as he seemed to be buried in the hills of Afghanistan somewhere and was a saud). I went off and started a peace group, I was so angry, but I was, like you, horrified at the number of people who I had previously thought were quite normal but who supported Australia getting involved in that war.
A couple even said “we support going to war because we are conservative” – that was their only explanation. I think many people just accept what they read in newspapers – they dont see motivations and the fear card was played for all it was worth (thats why the media is so so dangerous, and I realised that in the push to war – there was no questioning and there was no debate – we should have had a referendum)
Im like you. I dont really know what motivates this sort of thinking but I do know its not helped by the newspapers we have now.
Robert at #11: I’m sure they are more honest. Its efficiency that gets me curious.
Just checked some published data. Looked at the Red Cross Annual Report for 2007-08 (its good that they publish one). Total fundraising, excluding fundraising income of $20m relating to Special Purpose/Disaster Appeals and tied funds, was shown as $35.4m, with expenses of $17.4m, leaving $18.0m as net revenue.
Michael @ #6, the late 1970s and early 1980s were above trend in terms of the incidence of very hot days. Neverthless the trend is upwards. Statistics have to trump subjective impressions when it comes to climate change.
There was a total of 134 road deaths in December 2008 which thankfully represents a 15.2 per cent decrease from the December 2007 figure. Furthermore there have been 1,463 road deaths in 2008 to the end of December which again thankfully has been an 8.7 per cent decrease from the same 12 month period in 2007.
Where can I and my Govt send our heartfelt donations to assist the relatives of all these disater victims?
John, if I may reply to Marginal Notes by saying that there is no doubt it is getting hotter but according to the Australian Government (Bureau of Meteorology) ‘In most inland areas the number of consecutive days above 40°C has not (yet) reached the levels set in 1939’.
Thanks for the information at #13, boconnor. Very helpful to read these details.
Alanna, regarding the couple who said to you “we support going to war because we are conservative”: there are quite a few conservatives in the States and England, especially, who have opposed the Iraq war. Among Americans I can think of Pat Buchanan, Ilana Mercer, Joseph Sobran, and the authors associated with Chronicles magazine in Illinois. Among Englishmen I can think of Sir Peregrine Worsthorne and Stuart Reid. Come to think of it, within Australia, I seem to recall the Liberal Party elder John Valder being pretty hostile towards the Iraq war:
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/10/21/1066631415503.html
Jack Strocchi, frequent commentator on matters Quigginesque, wrote the following in 2005 (at another site): “I supported the war initially, and then turned against it once it was clear that the authors of the war had lied about the kind of reception the US forces would receive from a significant minority of the population.”
i supported the iraq war because the media told me too and deep down i am a racist
i deny global warming because the media told me too and deep down i dont like people, life, earth or myself,
i am a liar to myself and those around me,
and i fit in perfectly within a culture of liars, cheats and scums…
if anyone challenges me too seriously i use violence to shut them up,
any questions
I am the original poster: lets put these temperatures in context – Melbourne’s previous high was 45.6, it reached 46.4 degrees on Saturday.
Geelongs previous high was 44.8, it reached 47.4.
These are incredible figures which shocked the weather bureau.
Again, an open invitation to the denialists on this board to explain this as all being natural. Come on, bring it on.
I can’t see how “denialists” are responsible for this heatwave or any other, data indicates that in many instances records held since 1939 were broken yet there has been no allegation that “denialists” were responsible for the 1939 heatwave.
rog, your comment makes no sense. I’m not saying denialists are responsible for this heatwave or the 1939 one, I’m asking them to explain to me what is causing these incredible temperatures – they say its natural, that it isn’t global warming – so what is it ?
Observa at #15.
Point taken about relative numbers. I think the difference is that there is a sense of responsibility and subsequent consequence with the drivers of cars that crash, compared with the bushfire victims who suffered the ravages of nature. In some real sense they are the victims of circumstance.
Denialism I’m sure has its roots in a visceral hatred of anything left of centre and it’s generally recognised that the left pretty owns the environment.
My denialist acquaintances are universally rabid right.
One recently returned (sadly) from a trip to Antarctica where it was exposed to the views of a number of shipboard scientists who “you’ll be pleased to know, all said that AGW was a reality”.
Made no difference.
They’re happy to take their ideology to the grave, and the rest of us with them.
BTW, wouldn’t it be a nice gesture if the CSIRO made their bushfire book “Grassfires: Fuel, Weather and Fire Behaviour.” a bit more affordable. It’s 40 bucks.
Or at least published a free pamphlet exposing some of the more dangerous myths (like, you can boil in shallow ponds, or fires suck up all the oxygen)
Alanna
We have evolved to make decisions instinctively and quickly. Fight or flee has to be a quick decision in the jungle. People seem to then spend an inordinate amount of time justifying decisions they have made. Predictably Irrational, and The Mind of the Market, both give accounts of experiments that show this.
First impressions stick. Instant judgments plague one.
Once we have an idea that sort of works then it becomes foolish to keep changing it for something new.
Now add in our capacity to intellectually argue any case and make it plausible. Add in our propensity to ignore evidence that does not fit our beliefs.
Go to a dinner party where two parties have made instant judgments that are opposite and expect a problem.
The other alternative is to go to a party where people tend to listen more than they talk.
24#True Kevin but Ruperts damn media doesnt help. I really think there is still a lot of people out there who think “if its in the news it must be right.” The old bastard knows it and I reckon he smelt cheap oil for his bloody newspapers and hence we got the huge splash in the media that took us off to war. Its just descended into a rag that pushes Murdochs business interests first and foremost….he aint half the media man Packer was. It isnt in his blood to know how to do it well. Its divisive (left right left right right right etc) sensationalism and lies all the way.
25#
here is a classic example in todays SMH page 7 (after all the condolence articles on the bushfire) titled “Hoarse men of the apocalypse reign in Canberra” by Annabel Crabb, the general direction of which is that Rudd is being gloomy by delivering condolence speeches and I quote
” For much of his speech, he contained himself to the monotonal recitation of emergency arrangements; assistance payments, distribution areas, subcommittees, and contact points. When social order breaks down everyone with a clipboard becomes a beacon.”
Yeah they do Annabel and they can do without your sarcasm or the SMH’s snide editors, in their heavy workload.
boconnor#22
‘In some real sense they are the victims of circumstance.’
Not so sure an equivalent bad month on our roads is much different. Certainly none of the range of culpable or innocent fatalities takes to the road with that in mind. If you’re pissed to the eyeballs there may be a certain inevitability, but meeting an oncoming car on your side of the road with your family on board might make you and the police, rescue teams, ambulance officers, medicos, relatives and friends, etc all an equivalent victim of circumstance.
As to culpability or innocence in bushfire, I’ve mentioned it’s quite feasible to build homes to safe haven standard. To the extent that people increasingly want to live among the trees, they need to bear that in mind, just like road rules and speed limits that are not some nuisance to be fined over occasionally, but rather just limited, sensible guidelines. We can’t possibly write a set of sensible guidelines for all eventualities as this near miss clearly illustrated with bushfire risk-
‘FEARLESS firefighters have stormed through fire to save 19 campers, including seven toddlers and babies.
As the firefighters led them to a river and hosed them under fire blankets, their parents begged: “Are we going to make it out of this?”
Andrew Collard, 30, and Brian Lawry, 46, who are Department of Sustainability and Environment workers, told of their extraordinary efforts to first storm through the fire in their truck and then save the eight families as flames engulfed them at a scenic park in Murrindindi at 3.30pm on Saturday.’
Must admit I haven’t come across too many fireproof tents, caravans or campers in my travels, but I’m always open to new technologies. Fingers crossed we’ll have a good month on the roads after this latest shocker eh?
Robert#17
True – I know John Valder did his utmost to question our involvment in Iraq and John Valder is a very honourable man. I had the fortune to see him debate the subject (Iraq) with other politicians including Tony Abbot (that was misfortune) at North Sydney Council Chambers. The person sitting next to Tony Abbott noted that his speech was merely a hobbled together set of printouts from US rhetoric that he had printed out the night before and he read , no advance planning for the debate whatsoever – just U.S. hellfire and terrorism monologues downloaded from the net.
After John Valder spoke he was given a standing ovation (and later the liberal party tried to discredit JV). It was a disgusting low for that party.
i doubt he needed to print it off the web, alanna,
i think they were a bit more on message that that,
like the PM and the canadian PM giving the same speech within 48 hours of each other,
they didnt print that one off the web
sorry that should read the future canadian pm
Smiths#29 Abbott printed it off the web right down to the http addresses at the bottom of various pages – not even collated plagiaristically into one prepared speech (he had his stand which was pro war and he was sticking to it, only he just wasnt sure what the stand actually was (I think this was the case – Tony wasnt going to step outside Howards or Bush’s call was he ie “you are either with us or against us and ipso facto pro terrorism”), so he relied on Bush style rhetoric – most easily obtained from the net and probably Murdoch articles. That or pure “I cant be bothered with this debate; therefore I will print stuff from the net” and I might add it printed the date on it observed by the speaker sitting right next to him.
Needless to say John Valder ran absolute rings around Tony Abbott in the debate to the extent it was almost embarrassing.
Shining through, despite the trauma and terror, pain, suffering, ashes and
ruin of the Victorian bushfires is the great spirit and heart of ordinary people:
individual acts of heroism and self-sacrifice; service rendered to others under
extreme conditions in the face of total personal loss; the bravery and tenacity
of people fighting fires and supporting; community support and the wider national,
even international response. When people receiving flood relief in the North
dedicate their payment to the fire relief in the South you know there is something
much deeper at work than charity. Basically it is the selfless side of human
nature, the very heart and soul of people, – feeling the need, at one with others –
willing to sacrifice and serve in order to lift and preserve.
Politicians, bankers and corporates please take note. These selfless people
refuse and rise far above the mere animal, predatory nature that is the basis
of us all – to assert their humanity, their heart, and the generosity that each
heart holds. There is more to a human being than just a mind and a self centred
ego!
Selflessness allows human beings to evolve, in every way – it is that simple!
Selfishness is the absence of such a spirit, as darkness the absence of light.
I agree – the audacity of the liberals to now want to quibble over keeping the stimulus package separate from the bushfire initiatives. How paltry and pathetic and mean spirited are they ??? (and the same can be said for US republicans who dont to want to see money spent on schools and want tax breaks instead). Its the same mentality and its very ugly. Its an “Im alright jack and bugger everyone else” attitude. Both Obama and Rudd have their work cut out for them dealing with these ignorant selfish people.
As a person who now accepts the globe is getting cooler,and that isn’t the wonderful incandescent in mid winter as heat source.I understand those who find the problems of Victorians seems to indicate something else.The attack on those who think its getting cooler,also comes along with the denial of sunspot activity and what that may mean.I haven’t looked up the latest on that activity.There seemed a complete loss of it last time my understandings went there.Since then some emphases about what has been the influence of the Indian Ocean based Australian weather cycles was coming out of one of the Sydney universities about the dry weather in Victoria,before the fires erupted.So maybe there is more to normal patterns of weather than the complete acceptance that the globe is generally heating.Both the Artic and Antartica seem to be influenced by below surface activity,not much debate seems to offered up by the above the surface climate change individuals still adhering to the IPCC.Very bleak snow lines in the U.S.A. and Britain in a historical sense,must also mean more than the told you so from the climate change temperature rising crew.Because they weren’t very accurate,and the only mystery still is how come Victorian Meteorologists got the conditions so right about fire potential!? It maybe, they are humbler,and didn’t sign onto the IPCC.As a person that lived in even hotter climes in Victoria than that now afflicted,and have spent twelve hour days picking grapes near Mildura, I think some people,are still not adjusting well to the harshness of this country when harsh.Modern life is losing its reflective capacity,those who readily call people climate change deniers are unwilling to even look behind the scenes to see if the IPCC has been a working scientist’s clear statement on any predictive matter.There is evidence it has not been,with even Australians dropping out of the formality.
Yet the conservatives are happy to take trillions (not mere billions) of our taxes to throw and THROW again at the banks while the banks wont even consider a borrower less than large scale (small business? Forget it). Then you have citigroup taking 45mill bailout money and buying a new twelve seater corporate jet for 50 mill. But spend money on a public school? – forget it, cant be done.
Id like to build a space shuttle and put all these apes and their supporters in it and send them on a one way search for their lost planet.
Dave, post #1. Your arrogance astounds me. We live in a free democracy where you may have your opinion, but in return you must respect the opinion of the climate change ‘denialists’.
First it was ‘global warming’, and when people realised that the globe was not actually getting warmer it was changes to ‘climate change’, and then the term ‘denialist’ was coined to slander anybody who doesn’t agree with the likes or you.
I am a climate change skeptic myself. I don’t believe that we have enough historical data to make any conclusions, and I know that there have been weather events on par with what we are experiencing now still in living memory. I am also skeptical about the results of the climate models, which are generated by software that is based on a theory of how climate operates. It worries me that the masses are deftly believing the results of a theory that is being tested owith a theory. To me that is bad science and needs to be looked at very critically.
That is my opinion and I would appreciate it if you would respect it and not make slanderous comments and call me and others who share my opinions a moron.
Er, Alanna, I think you mean 45 Billion not 45 million for Citigroup.
Some financial doomer p*rn for those so inclined…
Cool.
Phillip at #34, “the only mystery still is how come Victorian Meteorologists got the conditions so right about fire potential!? It maybe, they are humbler,and didn’t sign onto the IPCC.”
If you respect our local meteorologists have a look at the Bureau of Meteorology website at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/ to see a considered scientific view. The introduction to the section on Climate Change states: “Australia and the globe are experiencing rapid climate change. Since the middle of the 20th century, Australian temperatures have, on average, risen by about 1°C with an increase in the frequency of heatwaves and a decrease in the numbers of frosts and cold days. Rainfall patterns have also changed – the northwest has seen an increase in rainfall over the last 50 years while much of eastern Australia and the far southwest have experienced a decline.”
Again, this is about long-term trends in a range of measured variables, not particular events or experiences of hot days picking grapes near Mildura.
Carbonsink#37
And Money market managers now want ordinary taxpayers to put in for the losses, they withdrew the money in order to avoid in Sept 2008, that Money market managers knew were coming??
Is that it? (and I did mean bill not mill for the Citigroup bailout)
I think Brett (#36) that if you look into the history of the term “climate change” you will find it was coined by the denialists to come up with something that sounded less threatening than “global warming”.
I’m fed up to the back teeth with the denialists. I’m surprised that after last weekend they haven’t all crawled away to die of shame. We had the hottest day ever here in Melbourne on Saturday. If you do some simple statistical analysis you can work out pretty quickly that days like that should happen about once every seven hundred years. Then there’s the record number of above 40 degree days in January, the unending drought, etc, etc, etc…
How much proof do they need?
Interesting and communicative, but would participate in something more on this topic?
Alanna, Lehman collapsed at 1am on Sep 15th (which was actually a Monday, the quote above is wrong). The rest of the day was sheer, unadulterated panic. Seems there was massive run on the banks that we’re only now hearing about.
The US authorities should do a Sweden nationalise the top 6 banks (who hold most of the toxic assets).
er yes carbonsink, except
“We have a financial system that is run by private shareholders, managed by private institutions, and we’d like to do our best to preserve that system”. Timothy F. Geithner
He used to work for the private fed, and before that he worked for the BIS, the private bankers private bank
Carbonsink#42 Ahhhhh sooooooooo…the pea soup thickens….so quite a few of us are ahead of the rest of us in the markets arent they???? Uggggh what a damn fine mess!
Carbon#43 It seems the financial markets are about as efficient as a mouldy piece of swiss cheese and just as full of black holes (and other dark matter) and as transparent as a London fog and the only people who think its efficient are those who have been getting away with hornswaggling everyone else.
i think the whole story is utter rubbish alanna
the mysterious money people suddenly start removing huge amounts of money from the us economy,
the heroes: batman, the treasury and the fed work with sweat pouring off their brows to save the US economy and the whole worlds financial system…
yeah right
they knew what would happen when they lehman fail because they knew damn well how woven it was into the world economy,
they knew what would happen when they banned short selling cause hoover did it in 1932 for the same reasons and wiped 65% off the share market,
and they know what will happen every time they open their mouths to tell us how dire the situation is and how much of our money must be piled into the private banks to save the world
it is a scam, pure and simple
John, Labor should think twice about turning down Senator Fielding’s reasonable request of a piddling $4 Billion for the most disadvantaged in society to be included in the stimulus package.
even worse then smiths…the readings of the financial manoeverings in 1929 crash were almost too much for me to bear and now this…
“When we went to war in Iraq I was so horrified and disgusted and it was completely out of my understanding that Australia (yes I had always thought we were relatively peaceful like Canada or New Zealand and that we didnt go deliberately starting wars)” -Alana
I don;t know about starting wars, but since the Boer War Australians have pretty much gone out of their way to fight in any war they can.
Boer War
World War I
World War II
Korea
Malaysian “emergency” and konfrontasi
Vietnam
Gulf War I (no ground troops but naval and air support)
Gulf War II
I’m rather surprised we gave the Falklands a miss.
“First it was ‘global warming’, and when people realised that the globe was not actually getting warmer it was changes to ‘climate change’…’
anyone who says this in all seriousness exposes themselves as an ignoramus whoseopinion can be safely disregarded.
The term “climate change” was used as far back as the UN Framework on climate Change in the late 1980’s.
The attempt to replace the term “global warming” with “climate change” in all circumstances can be traced to a Bush administration staffer ca. 2001 in a memo talking about the need to emphasise uncertainty around the science and push the possible positives of a warmer climate.
Not knowing this marks you as a mindless parrot squawking right wing propaganda.