Tony Abbott’s latest move, floating the idea that people under 30 should be denied access to the dole, is clear evidence of why he should never be Prime Minister. For that matter, it’s an illustration of the weaknesses that made him a second-rate (at best) minister under Howard.
The political calculation is obvious, although the arithmetic looks dubious to me. The idea is to appeal to the anti-youth prejudices of the older voters who form the core of Liberal party support. But older voters are hard to shift in general, and the kind of people who would like this proposal are mostly rusted-on Liberals, though they might once have been One Nation types. By contrast, Abbott’s overt appeal to bigotry against the young will surely cost the Libs votes among this group at a time when their attitudes are still being formed
Coming to the policy merits, Abbott’s supporting “reasoning” if such a term can be justified is that this measure will encourage people to move to “areas where there are skills shortages, such as in the Western Australian mining sector.” We are talking here about the age group where most people start forming long-term relationships and having children (median age for first child is 29, and appears to be declining at the moment). And, even if they are temporarily unemployed, most people in this age group have made career choices that are unlikely to be consistent with a flit to WA to work in the mines. And, even with relatively strong conditions, I doubt that the demand for labor in the mines extends say, to a cry for hairdressers, or bartenders or shop assistants, to pick a few occupations at random[1].
This idea seems too silly even to come from a focus group. In fact, it seems about on a par with the ideas I come up with after a triathlon and a few glasses of muscle relaxant. I usually manage to refrain from communicating these marvellous ideas on the blog, let alone announcing them to the public at large.
fn1. ABS used to publish data on unemployment by usual occupation, but they seem to have stopped.
(H/T Nancy Wallace).
Update: More from Kim at LP
John Quiggin 
John, I wouldn’t underestimate the populist appeal of this silly idea amongst demographics other than the grumpy old tabloid & talkback set. One of the side effects of Australia’s extended period of prosperity is that many people have no experience, or have fading memories of the experience, of the misfortune of finding oneself unemployed through no fault of one’s own and finding it hard to get back into work, or of knowing family or friends in this situation.
And in addition to that PrQ, one might add that it won’t be the least bit popular with those of us still supporting young people who have yet to develop highly marketable skills. Self-evidently, Abbott seems to be implying that a much higher proportion of the burden of supporting these people should be transferred from the state to us.
That’s not a tax increase, but it might as well be.
Irony alert. Under Tony Abbott, the mature age unemployed can not only continue to look forward to the continuance of their unemployment benefit but also to turning age 65 where they make the transition from reviled dole bludger to esteemed pensioner-citizen! What a difference a birthday can make!
It’s also a pitch to the corporate community. An article from the ABC website (http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/04/21/2878417.htm) talks of nebulous “business leaders” with whom Abbott had been getting ideas from. He’s shoring up their support. This is also the same person who wants to bring back Work Choices; he’s fighting a rear guard class war, basically. Wonder how much joy he’s going to get out of it come election day.
Well I can’t see it as being terribly popular, but tactically it also runs with Labor’s narrative about him – that he just makes shit up when he feels like it. We don’t like PMs who do this.
I’m telling you, a buck thirty is easy money for the election.
I was unemployed not long ago and not once did Centrelink mention that there were jobs available in Western Australia. Cutting off my dole money and expecting that to make me realize the Western Australian mining industry needs workers seems a rather circuitous route compared to just telling me.
I have been a fairly reliable Liberal voter for most of my adult life, but I think I will have to vote Labor this federal election. The more I see of Tony Abbott the more I am convinced he is a nutter. There is something about him that is almost desperately opportunistic in a kind of unhinged Lathamesque way. I wouldn’t trust this guy to run a local bowling club, let alone the country.
I have friends who usually hand out for Labor, so I might be joining them this time around.
Tony, like all compassionate conservatives, has always suffered from a surfeit of unbecoming kind-heartedness. What he really ought to have proposed is that all the unemployed be sold to the mining industry as indentured labour. That way, not only would they be converted into a handy source of revenue, but for once, the mining industry, which, for far too long, has been so ruthlessly exploited through taxation and so called ‘royalty fees’, would receive something for the unrequited rivers of gold it pays to government.
Naturally, if someone is so inconsiderate as to choose to be unemployed under an Abbott government they should also be permanently disenfranchised.
I wonder how their parents feel about the idea of having Gen Y and their dirty laundry move back in?
Forget asylum seekers, the next great fear campaign in Australian politics could also be it’s funniest. “We decide who moves back into the spare bedroom, and the manner in which they raid the fridge”
Not only will this idea lose them the youth vote directly – but it will also cost them with more mature voters in suburban seats. Not to mention regional voters who now have to decide between immigrants and unemployed 20somethings from the big smoke.
Another reason why it’s a bad idea is the nature of the labour shortages. Abbott is implying there’s a shortage of unskilled labour: there isn’t. The most acute shortages, the ones where people command the tall dollars, are for trade or university qualified professionals. Being unemployed in Port Hedland or Mackay is scarcely different to being unemployed anywhere else in Australia, I suppose, except that voters in marginal seats can’t see you if you’re far away.
If you want to move unemployed people to those areas, simply tell them that there are well-paying jobs there and many will move. The reason why there has been no mass exodus to date is because people are told (whether they investigate it from home or if they travel there) that there isn’t much demand for unskilled labour, and that the real demand there is for people with the skills and experience that are in demand anywhere.
Mining Industry has told him it wants skilled not unskilled workers – the thought of youth loose with heavy machinery on a mine site has set cold shivers down the spine of coproate executives.
They have offered him a briefing on their labour requirements.
@Mark
That is why disenfranchisement is a necessary part of any rationale policy. Wait, some of them may be influenced by the expectation of unemployment. Why not disenfranchise them all? Abbott, President for life. Wait, why not Australian Pope? And Australia can become the Abbott papal state? That way we would benefit from the incumbent’s infallibility!
I suspect Abbott just said the first thing that came into his head, in a slightly desperate attempt to take the spotlight off the health agreement. As usual, that first thing was ill thought-out and ugly.
Like his maternity leave moment, this too isn’t a serious proposition.
It’s Abbott’s farting in the lift tactic.
When the day’s real issue is COAG Health, he drops a diversionary silent but deadly, buggers off and leaves everyone discussing the smell.
I am under 30 years old and I support the proposal to restrict unemployment benefits to those older than 30 years. People of this age should have no trouble finding work or studying or undertaking a traineeship etc in areas of national priority. Young people should be supported to study/train in areas of national priority, but in areas judged not to be in national priority, students should not be supported in any way.
‘Rationalist’… have you ever been unemployed? Have you ever been a student that didnt have mum & dad to pay all your bills?
I’m not useless, a bludger or stupid but I did spend periods in my early 20’s unepmployed because people were hiring for ‘experience’ which I did not have at the time. You can’t just magically start studying or demand a traineeship when you have no money. How much to you think Uni fees, TAFE fees and textbooks cost? They don’t materialise out of thin air!
‘students should not be supported in any way.’
this is too insanely stupid a comment for me to attempt to reply to. You clearly do not live in the real world.
@Melanie
Melanie
“Rationalist” lives to troll. He simply works out what will seem the most plainly specious and provocative thing to say in this context and utters it without further consideration, confident that someone will respond in a tone of high dudgeon.
You are not supposed to take his comments or him at face value. A quick review of his past comments shows that he is neither a rationalist nor rational.
@Rationalist:
Well, that explains a few things. You’ll find your first recession educational when it comes.
And here was me thinking you were a fan of free markets. I apologise – you’re clearly a central planner par excellence. 😛
This reminds me that Abbott has changed nothing from his days around 2000 when as Minister for Employment and Youth Affairs he was allegedly responsible for my sacking while in charge of one of his pet environmental youth employment programs. As supervisor, I refused to allow these 17-20 year olds on tax-payer funded allowances of $5. 80 – $7.20 p/h to plant trees on private property, ie at no cost to the landowner. After sacking me he required my crew to return twice to two properties to show these youngsters how the real world worked.
At least I was able to go the Industrial Relations Commission and win reinstatement and recompense.
I notice that Catalepsy has grub-like Judith Sloan “doing for” DB pensioners before a small but vociferous audience.
Obviously plan b is welfare-bashing, if the race card fails.
As to rationalist, must be great to have an independent income. Your time will come…
@Melanie
No, I have never been “unemployed” according to the ABS definition nor do I accept support from parents, I accept support from industry however.
I am not saying these people are “bludgers”, I am simply saying that they should plan themselves for possible periods of unemployment rather than relying on the government during a period of prime employability.
Large employers facing shortage of labour should behave like the good free marketeers they are by offering better pay and conditions.
If the constraint relates to too few workers with suitable trades, the employers are welcome to offer more apprenticeships or otherwise contribute appropriately to the education of their workforce (and if that has free rider problems, they should [also] be asking government to put more resources into education and training)
Hi John,
Re: your footnote, ABS 6291.0.55.003 Table 7 might have what you’re after. http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6291.0.55.003Feb%202010?OpenDocument.
Matt C
Apologies, not Table 7, see SuperTABLE UQ3_may01 – Unemployed Persons by Sex, State, Occupation, May 2001 onwards
Throwing in a new thought to the barrel: this pushes prospective students who would otherwise support themselves through unemployment benefits towards increased hours dedicated to working. And no, they do not take weekend trips to the mines, providing “useful labour”; they deliver pizzas.
So where does that leave students as a whole? Well, those who have to work additional hours to stay afloat (that is to say, those not fortunate enough to have parental support), will eventually suffer a competitive disadvantage to those who do not work any additional hours, since time spent working takes away from time spent studying.
Putting two and two together, I’d say this leans towards Abbott extending a “helping hand” to those who would elect him (i.e Liberal parents of uni and even high school students who will now do better against their peers) rather than Abbott being benevolent towards miners out West.
It just seems like the same stuff Howard spouted just as elections came up – terrorist queue jumpers throwing kids overboard, Aborigines taking people’s backyards, bludgers sucking money out of the hard working ‘punters’ – veiled or even straight out pitches to the bigots, xenophobes and their fear and envy. Those that see those recieving no more income than unemployment benefits as living high should try it some time. If you think those with low esteem, poor work and social skills and personality problems to boot would make great employees, they exist in abundance. Having them on the streets – or in forced labour gangs – without support doesn’t strike me as sound social policy. But this isn’t about best policy, it’s about pressing people’s buttons; no-one’s as unthinking as someone riled up about the latest inequity or their pet hate.
@Tim Macknay
I plan to be well prepared for my “first recession”.
This sounds like undergraduate jingoism you’d expect from Young Libs/Nats like Nick Sowden.
@Chris Warren
I do not currently support a political party.
When they don’t have enough food or basics, and steal to get it, at least they’ll get that history lesson everyone keeps banging on about. After all, that’s exactly what happened to so many of our ancestors just before they got their transportation orders…
I have spent most of my adult life working in the mining and construction industry. The idea of the mining industry becoming the dumping ground for the long term unemployed would give every mine manger nightmares (If they weren’t convinced by now that Abbot must never be allowed to become PM.)
Kevin Wealand is chief executive of Downing Teal (http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/04/21/2878744.htm?section=justin) commented that “not just anyone can get a job in the mines.
“Labour has also got to be characterised as skilled labour,” he said.
“So unskilled labour that is incapable or untrained in the use of heavy equipment, working in dangerous or remote environments, is unlikely to be easily employed.
“Mining is inherently a dangerous business … to take anyone who’s absolutely unskilled and say ‘there’s a job in the resource sector’ would be contentious.”
There are a number of things that the mining industry could do to attract a wider range of people if the shortage becomes more acute.
“plan themselves for possible periods of unemployment ”
Isn’t that called income taxation?
I reckon this is a bit of good old fashioned dog whistling. The unspoken message to the redneck voters is “we’ll take the blacks’ sit-down money from them”, because that’s who most of the unemployed are in mining areas.
Going thu it, I missed what a genuinely big hearted,reasoned and accurate statement Paul Norton’s was.
Thanks, Abbott, for another REALLY stupid comment, to remind left-of-rightist-people (including self) who the real enemy is
Neither is Nick Sowden.
It’s the same as the old ‘put em in the army’ call. It’s just a little trigger to flick the ‘we all hate the same people’ switch. As with the army proposals it can never happen because, as others more knowledgable than me point out, there is little or no demand from industry/army for unskilled or unwilling labour. I would be surprised if Abbott and his marketing team did not know that.
@Chris Warren
Who is Nick Sowden?
OK now lets see – Abbott wants to bring in an even nastier version of “lets rip of youth” than workchoices.
As is my understanding Abbott claims there up jobs in the mines in WA and he would like to induce the unemployed youth from everywhere else to go there at their own expense. Hmmm – could be a problem especially when accommodation is in such short supply that rents for pretty boring houses are $1000 a week in these labour strapped towns.
Well now Abbott – architect of Iraq and Worckchoices thinks he can just lay down his Alister Taylor style rod and whip and workers will do exactly as he says.
Pardon me but anyone stupid enough to vote for Abbott – especially under thirty year olds – yeah – if you dont want to pay for your own education or job in the mines (or your parents dont want to more to the point) then we will make sure, if you havent git the money abd your parents havent, get used to sleeping on park benches.
the guy is an (self censored)..but Ill leave you with this just in case you are thinking of voting for Abbott think of Sol….
http://myspace.vtap.com/video/Denis+Leary+parody+-+Ass+Sol+Trujillo+%2528The+Chaser%2527s+War+On+Everything%2529/CL0244884039_7939258de_U08xOTUyNTR-aW46Nn5xOmJyfmJ3OlNPMTk1MjU0
@John Davidson
John Davidson – I dont think you need worry about the long term unemployed or the short term youth fresh out of school unemployed. They cant afford to move to mining towns but what I do suggest is they rally for a sleep over in front of Abbotts office. He is a jerk neither the young who dont have a job, nor the mining industry can afford.
Abbott jumps the shark.
This is a very good way to ensure that Gen Y and possibly a lot of Gen X plus baby boomers who will be faced with supplying money to support unemployed young adults rather than see them go into crime, vote Labor. Tony Abbott seems determined to lose every demographic possible. He should stick to riding bikes or parading in budgie smugglers as that is what he does best. At least Mark Latham had a more interesting turn of phrase as he crashed and burned.
Alice, you think he is a mouse’s ear?
@paul walter
Paul…I think Tony Abbott hasnt got a clue and Id be seriously worried if I was an under 30. I think they do it tough enough now due to the viciousness of JHs regime towards youth (hecs up and up wages down and down). Abbott should go join the army and bully the new recruits. He would then combine his only real skills – exercise and bullying people underneath him on the demographic ladder.
Insomnia..
Ah well, since am here could start with comment 41#.
I can’t beleive it, either.
Surely a single human can only do so much damage to his foot to his own foot and still have something left capable of being shot at.
At least Latham had some sort of half rational vison for the future, but Abbott, I reckon there is really, a pathological problem involved with some of the traits manifest.
If that’s true, it’s not just the young people who have something to worry about.
But there is probably method behind the madness.
He wants to hold the Tory right rump, so as not to lose too many seats at the next election. Maybe factional balances will change if there is a fair loss of seats- if that’s the case you’d expect the right to be strengthened.
Besides, in allowing Rudd to take up slack on the right, perhaps he gets to see policies more to his liking up and running, since Rudd is himself fairly conservative.
If they cede the field now, the huge anti Howard, in effect rainbow, coalition that put Rudd in, would complacently descend into internecine scrapping over spoils of victory.
@paul walter
Paul “If that’s true, it’s not just the young people who have something to worry about.”
All of us do have something to worry about if Abbott gets in. I keep having visions of him in a uniform wearing jackboots.
For an internet persona that is sometimes deliberately (dare I say wilfully) anachronistic, I must say I approve, Jack S.
Paul Walter, I think you’re very charitable thinking this thought bubble was vaguely strategic thinking.
I was on the dole for a little period up in Darwin, and one of the places I did try was the mines. Well, firstly by watching for jobs advertised- there were none. Then at one point by walking straight into the reception of a mining company in Darwin and asking for work. A manager spoke to me and explained that unless I found a way to get experience, I wouldn’t get a leg in. How to get experience? I don’t know, I had one good friend who worked on a mine (and had given me the idea) but his dad managed it and gave him various moderately hard, extremely well paid jobs until he’d built his own CV up.
It’s bizarre to suggest people can be conscripted across the country, in the first place. But secondly, is there ANY EVIDENCE at all that mining jobs are being offered to the people queued up at Broady Centrelink, and that they are turning them down?
What about those extremely highly paid jobs out at the desal plant, are THEY even on offer to underskilled dole recipients?
Nasty social engineering driven by a complete want of serious evidence.