Month: April 2010

A bit more on population

John Quiggin117 Comments

Over the fold, a couple more paras on population, which is becoming a very hot issue.

It will be interesting to see how Abbott handles it. As with the parental leave tax, he has run with a populist position, apparently taking no trouble to square it with his business base, which is already causing trouble. Since he was supporting high immigration intakes only a couple of months ago (in the context of an attack on asylum-seekers), it’s hard to see how he can escape charges of opportunism. In fact, it’s hard to think of a major issue (tax, climate change, parental leave, WorkChoices) on which Abbott has not been, in Malcolm Turnbull’s memorable description, a weathervane. I suppose that’s what authenticity means.

It will also be interesting to see how his 9-day, 1000 km cycling/listening tour affects both his substantive position, and his ability to manage the debate[1]. Presumably, touring through rural areas, he’ll find it hard to back away from calls for a cut in immigration, but the Liberals are all over the shop on this.

The government has its own problems. Rudd’s “big Australia” is popular with business and some elite groups, but the case hasn’t been made to the rest of the country and I doubt that it can be. As I say over the page, it would probably be better to make the case for migration at the individual level (why should person X not be allowed to come/stay here) than in terms of aggregates. But if the Libs keep on messing things up, it will be relatively easy for the government to adjust both its rhetoric and his substantive position.

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Turnbull out

John Quiggin14 Comments

I’ll try to write a bit about Malcolm Turnbull’s career when I get some free time. In the meantime, with Minchin also leaving, I thought I’d point out how little is left of the Howard era in Australian politics, at least on the conservative side. Howard, Costello, Downer, Vaile, Nelson, Turnbull, Minchin and a host of lesser lights have all gone, one way or another. Assuming, as seems plausible, that Abbott will lose the next election and be dumped thereafter (I don’t think a losing conservative leader has ever avoided this fate in national politics, though both Peacock and Howard managed comebacks), there will be hardly anyone left except Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop, both very junior figures under Howard.

I don’t have a good feel for how unusual this is. Quite a few Labor figures left after 1996, but I don’t think it was such a wholesale cleanout. Commenters are invited to do the spadework on this.

How many Australians ?

John Quiggin43 Comments

I’ve been meaning, for a while, to write a post about Australia’s population, and the announcement that a new position of Minister for Population has been created is a good place to start. It takes some of the edge off what would have been my first complaint, namely that policy decisions implying a large increase in population have been taken without any real public debate. This has been a bipartisan process, driven by increases in net overseas migration which took off under Howard (reaching about 200 000 a year) and have continued under Rudd (reaching nearly 300 000).

However, the figures are distorted by the increase in numbers of overseas students arriving here. According to demographer Peter MacDonald, the long-run intake is around 180 000, and hasn’t changed nearly as much as the net arrivals figure would suggest. However, a substantial number of overseas students are seeking permanent residence from the outset. Gaming the system in this respect had become a more or less overt racket, until recent policy changes, and it remains to be seen if these policy changes are effective. Leaving aside such manipulation, a significant number of people who arrive here as students are likely to seek to remain in Australia for one reason or another, for example because they meet and marry an Australian resident, or simply because they make lots of friends and like the place.

The consensus has broken down, now that the Opposition is promising a cut in migration and doing a little rewriting of history in the process, as with Senator Scott Morrison’s disingenuous reference to an average intake of 125 000 under the Coalition, an average that conceals a rising trend.

For practical purposes, population policy in Australia means immigration policy (as Madonna King points out here, the fact that Tony Burke is combining the population portfolio with agriculture, fisheries and forestry, rather than with immigration, makes very little sense). Unfortunately, there are few issues surrounded by more misconceptions, on both sides, than immigration.

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Zombies walking

John Quiggin5 Comments

I sent the manuscript of Zombie Economics off to Princeton University Press last night. There’s still plenty of work (figures, index, copyediting, some last-minute changes, galleys) to be done for a planned release at Halloween. But this is the official submission. In writing the preface I checked over the comments I’d received, here and at Crooked Timber. Several thousand in total, from more than a hundred different commenters. Thanks to everyone who took part. It was a huge help and encouragement to me.

Panic stations

John Quiggin12 Comments

My publisher just told me the publication date for my book has been moved forward, and the due date for the manuscript is “…well, now”. Lots needing to be done, and zero time to do it, but I’m sure I’ll manage somehow.