There are three people prominent in Australian politics whom I would happily support as Prime Minister[1]. Of these, the one who has the best chance is, I think, Malcolm Turnbull (it shouldn’t be hard for readers to guess the other two). He’s reminded us again what we lost when he was replaced by the lightweight opportunist who now leads the Opposition, against a mirror-image PM. If the Libs would put Turnbull up again, they would get my vote for the first time.
fn1. That reflects a fairly pessimistic view of what progress can be made. A competent government with a decent and consistent policy on climate change is as much as we can hope for at present.
John Quiggin 
Malcolm Turnbull’s characterisation yesterday of Tony Abbott’s magic pudding climate change policy underscores the pathetic job journalists are doing. Everything he said, they ought to have been being saying, long and loudly. Doesn’t say much, either, for the government, that Turnbull is able to provide a more focused critique than any of them seem capable of.
Given that there is so much wrong with the Coalition’s ‘competing’ non-policy, a policy which is obviously code for do nothing, and a policy that if implemented would cost the taxpayer heavily for rather small achievements, any respectable fourth estate should have been ripping it to bits. That journalists have been shockingly silent really says a lot.
As for the state of politics, just as appalling. Both sides of politics are unworthy of office and there are no real signs that things will get any better.
As for Gillard, clearly she is a mirror of Abbott. Neither seems to have a moral compass. Both like Howard just want to be PM. That said, Gillard has to be better than the drongo she replaced – Kevin, whatever his name was?
I don’t think Turnbull would really make a great PM, though, his support of sensible climate change policies has to make him a lot better than Abbott.
I couldn’t imagine two other politicians to happily support, and am wondering who your two others are? And I would not be happy if Turnbull was the best left of a very bad set of choices.
The other would be Rudd; the third, Bligh?
Don’t you think Turnbull would have made a much better Labor politician? It’s not too late for him to join the ALP, stop pretending that he opposes the NBN, and then lead Labor to victory over Abbott.
JQ
I suspect you are ignoring the party itself [the Libs that is] and are beguiled by the comparison between its present leader and Mal who really are only two individuals out of many.
Remember that this is a party of a hundred odd [in more senses than one] federal politicians and hundreds more elsewhere who share a particular mind set when it comes to social issues.
Looking at their ideology, their policies and past performances is a more valid measurement of who such persons are likely to accept as their spokesperson and how suitable such a group would be to govern this nation.
The Libs are the party whose parliamentary and non parliamentary members number …lots…, that gave us the Intervention, that trumpet xenophobic ‘border security” policies, that are happy to co habit with the Exclusive Brethren, who are happy to ignore public as opposed to private education and health, who believe one should govern as one cooks a small fish, who do not want the NBN, trust the rainmaking gods with $10 million, a substantial minority, or perhaps even a majority of this party, are denialists of climate change, they have concocted spinning PR water policy re the MDB on the back of an envelope [remember that back in latish ’07 and who was the relevant minister of the time?] have never seen a tax cut for the rich they didn’t like nor cosider the answer to any problem even the GFC, and who can’t count to the tune of losing $10 billion in an unaudited election package [and there were others beside Tony involved in that]……so on.
Perhaps the ALP does not measure up with our hopes and expectations but this other mob have been and will be again in a couple of years far worse.
Putting a pretty face up the front is only putting lipstick on the pig.
Mal is not the answer.
While I think Malcolm Turnbull has the where-with-all to be prime minister, I won’t vote for the Liberals until they clear out some of the more society-destroying parasites from the party ranks. Abbott, Minchin (out of his own volition, with a nice super bonus, thank you), Benardi, Hockey, Robb, Morrison, and several more handfuls. True, the party ranks would be severely thinned, but they need a liberalisation of the party before they are governing material. In a nutshell, if they got in with Malcolm at the helm, he would meet severe internal resistance on any policy beyond the do-nothing but tax cuts for the rich type thinking that we can do without.
Labor aren’t particularly appealling but the competition is execrable. The Clayton’s Budget Reply was a particularly galling experience, and the National Press Club speech by Joe Hockey barely qualifies as garbage. The Liberals need to lift their game substantially, and also realise that a policy with a social element is not akin to pulling teeth unanaethetised, it isn’t anywhere near that bad.
Caught me at a bad moment…
I agree. I think Turnbull is smarter and speaks with more conviction on climate than does the Labor leadership.
Is Andrew Leigh one of the three, JQ? I think he should be.
Also, if you want to have a look at how the other side is thinking, take a look at Professor Allan’s blog over at Quadrant: http://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/allan/2011/05/why-abbott-scares-them
You get the picture. Turnbull’s not coming back any time soon, sadly.
I would agree with HC.
Turnbull seems to me understand the implications of GW whereas the ALP leadership and power-brokers only seem to understand the politics ( and bad politics at that) of the subject.
I think Turnbull, while the best of the Liberals, would be still faced with the neanderthal front bench that the coalition has now, and the pressure of their corporate donors, so voting Liberal would be the equivalent of the “forlorn hope” charging the breach that Turnbull doesn’t really represent (if I haven’t mangled that metaphor too much!).
Here is my last attempt http://davidhortonsblog.com/2011/05/20/the-ragged-trousered-philanthropist/ at treating Gillard as a recovering neoconservatism addict. Is she beyond saving?
I think supporting a party on the basis of its leader is mistaken. One ought to support a party on the basis of its platform and its track record. On that basis one could never support Labor or Liberal ever again in this country, if one was concerned about actually getting something done about carbon emissions and switches to renewables. Labor and Liberal have proven they are totally beholden to corporate capital, especially corporate mining capital. They will never deliver on these issues.
One had to change the political landscape totally by making Green and Democratic Socialist parties the main players. That is the only hope.
I don’t think Andrew Leigh counts as “prominent in Australian politics” yet.
For what it’s worth, while I think Turnbull is great as far as the Liberals go, Ikonoclast is right. Leaders are overrated.
@Ikonoclast
I have to agree but find it deeply dismaying that mainstream politics is letting us down so thoroughly. We shouldn’t have to look outside the mainstream to get policy that has a foundation built on science based reality.
Good on Turnbull, but, with the Coalition enduring a surge of popularity, in part by feeding off and feeding climate change denialism, the chances of his regaining their leadership looks more unlikely than before. And he would be just as unlikely as Abbott or Gillard to align against the resources sector; an ETS that doesn’t actually impact the profitability of them or emissions intensive industries (ie greewash) is about the best we can expect and I’m not willing to bet we’ll even get that.
For the record, the other two are Kevin Rudd and Bob Brown
Rough rule of thumb these days for parliamentary members is that about 90% of the Libs/Nats are hacks, socially regressive, politically regressive, defenders of the status quo and easily bought by corporates and other rent-seekers and spivs. The corresponding number for the ALP is about 60%.
A decent leader in the Lib/Nats has no chance of achieving anything or changing the culture. A decent leader of the ALP has a low chance, but more than a Lib/Nat leader. However, such a leader is not in Parliament yet.
By calling the Murdoch media the hate media Bob Brown has shown more guts than all the others put together alhough Turnbull did pretty well in that speech. Why is Labor so fearful of giving the Libs or the media a good belting? How could that work out any worse than what is currently happening, their slow bleed to death.
Nice piece in The Drum today John. Our thoughts are complementary, although I must say Abbott as Chifley came out of left field and flummoxed me.
I’m not sure how Bob Brown fits into the picture at least outside the typical Green environmental ideas. The other two I can intuitively understand, mainly because I share the view.
Turnbull stands head and shoulders above the other leadership contenders at the moment (Gillard, Rudd, Abbott, Hockey). His defence of sane climate policy this week was a highly principled move that is very rare in modern politics. Sadly, it has probably killed off his leadership chances forever unless there is a big swing in public opinion on climate policy. The Coalition are riding a populist wave of denialism (and carbon tax fear-mongering) that will no doubt sweep them into office in 2013 or before.
I wonder if we’d be here today without OzCar/Utegate/Gretch?
@The Lorax
What can’t last doesn’t last and denialism is in that category, before too long the denialists will all be denying they were ever denialists, just like you can’t find anyone now who ever ever thought Schapelle Corby was innocent. Although there has been a spate of research demonstrating that irrefutable contradictory evidence hardens people’s viewpoints rather than alters them I have no doubt that further research would show that over time in the face of overwhelming contradictory evidence they would easily rewrite their own memories to subtly slide to a position of conformity. I think we need to somehow memorialise them lest we forget and they get away with their idiocy.
I see no redeeming qualities in Kevin Rudd. If Gillard does nothing else good in her career she will have at least made that pompous git cry.
settle petal.
that you see no redeeming qualities is up to you
gloating does you no favours.
politics is rough enough.
(duck)
Hear hear. Never voted Liberal before, but if Turnbull was in line for the throne, I’d considered it.
Curious as to who the other two are, John?
@daz
Ahh see who you mean now…Rudd and Brown.
@Ian Milliss
Unfortunately climate change plays out on such long timescales that AGW can be plausibly denied for decades. I have no doubt Andrew Bolt will go to his grave believing he did the right thing.
Re climate change and ‘populism’ as in this statement from 17 above:
“The Coalition are riding a populist wave of denialism ….”
The latest Newspoll [April 29-May1, 2011] to test this had these numbers [careful, I’m paraphrasing and rounding] in response to these questions:
-Is climate changing?
Yes 78%
No 16%
-Caused by Humans?
Yes [totally or partly] 92%
Perception of the noise from a few is hiding the fact that a large majority of Australians, the “populist” view, is clearly NOT denialist.
You left the capital “R” off. Have edited for you.
@may
That’s true. But Kevin Rudd is the one originally responsible for my disillusionment with this generation of the Labor party. I am very disappointed and angry with him.
Gillard’s polls are so bad that Mal realised he needs to sabotage Abbott now, or be stuck as a lowly communications minister in a multiple-term Abbott government; his worst nightmare!
Gillard is so busy trying to be a liberal…committing the very same mistakes that saw Kristina nailed to a cross. You know and strenagely enough Barery is a better bet in NSW because labor had an entrenched culture of corruption and they were all benefitting from their links with developers in the end.
I dont who is advising federal Neo Labors policies, but frankly those media advisers and policy advisers need to be sacked or at least leaked at being the US free market moles they are.
As a liberal party, labor will always be second best.
@Alice
Should read “You know and strangely enough Barry”
Hmm… Quiggin votes Liberal (“for the first time”).
This looks like an inability to see the wolf beneath the sheep’s clothing.
I agree with Prof Q.
& HC ” I think Turnbull is smarter and speaks with more conviction on climate than does the Labor leadership.
However I wouldn’t touch “Big Australia” Rudd with a barge pole, and similarly I don’t trust the Greens on the key green issue – population .
@Alice
or as the old joke goes – the Amateur Liberal Party (ALP). Boom boom!
Well Alice voted liberal for the first time recently in the NSW state elections – if only to get those self interested, corrupt, disgusting idiots in NSW Labor out (Obeid, Tripodi, Sartor, Costa, Roozendahl, Kenneally)
Oh god, they forgot they were actually getting paid by us to get the job done.
Just do the job or get thrown out.
We dont pay people to be in committees and reward themselves with trips perks, spins and private sector backrub connections. They are supposed to be building the infrastructure to take this country forward with increases in population. If they cant manage that job, whether its roads, rail or telecommunications or water or electricity with our taxes
they are useless and grossly overpaid and deserve to be thrown out.
or as the old joke goes – the Amateur Liberal Party (ALP). Boom boom!
Oh please. Why? Why do so many people believe there is a hope in Malcolm Turnbull? What did he achieve as a Minister? What did he achieve as LOTO? He failed his biggest test: to get his party to back him over CC. He failed to use his status as representative for very safe, very wealthy electorate to add advocate for more progressive line on the key policies that divide the parliament (and the community). He also utterly failed the credibility test during the “Utegate” farce: a disgraceful performance that none should forgive or forget.
MT has only excelled at cravenly toeing the party line, first under Howard (“the man who broke Australia’s heart”) and now under the arch-monarchist Abbott, rather than speaking out when he should/could have.
Besides, the LNP is overwhelmingly dominated by charlatans/fools/bigots (take your pick) like Minchin, Abetz, Joyce, Bernardi, Morrison, Hockey and Abbott. Where is the winning team of decent liberals to back Prince Malcolm the Good? What on earth makes people think the LNP could be something other than what it is? All my life it has been dominated by reactionary, populist tories (that is what Fraser was) and I’m pretty sure it always will be. The MT that people talk about as our saviour exists only as an idea. He certainly hasn’t been visible at all since he became the Liberal Member for Wentworth. Prove me wrong.
@Ian Milliss
Boom boom – thats what they are these days. The ALP (amateur liberal party). Talk about loss of brand identity. Wow if it was Coca Cola they would be in deep doo doo.
Completely off topic but still on the subject of statesman like leadership.
After Obama had Osama whacked, which has pretty much won the Afghan war in one fell stroke, it seemed to me that this was the right time for the US executive to put the screws on the Likudniks to leave the West Bank. Sorta like the way George Bush Snr leaned on the Likudniks after Gulf War One. Dealing from a position of strength, one might say.
The expression that leapt into my head was “where is James Baker when you need him?”. Those with medium-term memories will probably remember that Baker did not endear himself to Israeli hawks in the aftermath of Gulf War One.
But it turns out that Obama has suddenly grown balls of steeland started applying thumb-screws himself, with his call for a return to a 1967 boundaries for Israel. Obama will betray his Jewish base to achieve real progress in Palestine and maybe beyond. Nixon would be proud.
Since 2008 Pr Q has been carrying on like a big girl’s blouse, oscillating from joy to despair over Obama’s tacks, every time the political wind changed. But really there was never any cause for concern one way or another. Cool Hand Barry plays a long game, biding his time and waiting for the opponent to slip up. Thats the moment for him to play the ace up his sleeve.
Completely off topic but still on the subject of statesman like leadership.
After Obama had Osama whacked, which has pretty much won the Afghan war in one fell stroke, it seemed to me that this was the right time for the US executive to put the screws on the Likudniks to leave the West Bank. Sorta like the way George Bush Snr leaned on the Likudniks after Gulf War One. Dealing from a position of strength, one might say.
The expression that leapt into my head was “where is James Baker when you need him?”. Those with medium-term memories will probably remember that Baker did not endear himself to Israeli hawks in the aftermath of Gulf War One.
But it turns out that Obama has suddenly grown balls of steel and started applying thumb-screws himself, with his call for a return to a 1967 boundaries for Israel. Obama will betray his Jewish base to achieve real progress in Palestine and maybe beyond. Nixon would be proud.
Pr Q has been carrying on like a big girl’s blouse, oscillating from joy to despair over Obama every time the political wind changed. But really there was never any cause for concern one way or another. Cool Hand Barry plays a long game, biding his time and waiting for the opponent to slip up. Thats the moment for him to play the ace up his sleeve.
Pr Q said:
Of course by that logic Pr Q, at least in a time-travellable parallel universe, would be obliged to vote for John Howard. Had the Master Machiavellian been PM we would have had Pr Q’s beloved cap-and-trade embedded by now. Now that would be worth waiting up for!
The sobering fate of Rudd and Turnbull shows that transparent policy commitments do not seem to have political legs. Has Pr Q learned nothing from the Master?
This is the season for nimble political foot-work. The extraordinary media spin and complex web of lobbyists and true-believers means that all good policy must inevitably piggy-back on some nifty politics. We are seeing twin instances of this in both Obama and Gillard.
Pr Q is doing Gillard a disservice by calling her a “mirror image” of Abbott. As he has already correctly figured out, Gillard will get the carbon costing policy job done, mostly because she has no choice now but to go for broke. So there is no need for Pr Q to go to the extreme lengths of breaking ranks with his bolshie tradition and voting for a moderate Centre-Right liberal.
The ALP in general, and Gillard in particular, has shown some Machiavellian skill in deposing an ineffectual leader, deceiving the electorate on carbon tax and now dodgy dealing with Independents to get a carbon tax through. Her cynical opportunism in pursuit of a noble end is breathtaking and not a little awe-inspiring, at least for the present commenter.
I expect a carbon tax to be in place within one year or so’s time. That should give the electorate the better part of a year to suck it and see that a CST is not much worse than the GST. Making the L/NP’s inevitable calls for “rollback” in 2013 look as futile as Kim Beazley’s calls jn 1999.
I think that the Abbott-L/NP know this and are looking increasingly desperate in their silly calls for an “immediate election”. Abbott, like the Tea Party which he mimics, must sense that he has peaked too soon. Whilst Gillard can at least go the 2013 election with a solid policy score on the board.
I am not yet confident enough to call the 2013 federal election, although standard theory tells me that the ALP should win, given the mining boom and counter-valing L/NP tendencies at the state level. The electorate is a bit cranky and antsy.
But at this state of the game I am happy to predict that the ALP will greatly close the polling gap between the L/NP over the next 18 months. They are a very good bet now at 2.70.
Over the next 18 months I expect the ALP odds to shorten along with the electorates patience with Abbott. Plenty of time for Gillard to pull more Machiavellian rabbits out of her hat. Meanwhile Abbott has nothing to take to the electorate but a belly full of gripes, which grow old fast.
Having said all that I have to admit that Gillard’s political salesmanship leaves me pretty under-whelmed. Over 70% of the polity support the Commonwealth taking action on AGW. Yet political support for a carbon tax is about 30%.
That means that the current ALP leadership have a politics/policy conversion rate of well under 50%. Thats a pretty miserable failure of political salesmanship. Where is Keating when you need him?
@Jack Strocchi
I reckon you nailed it Jack. Plus Gillard has a bunch of strong symbolic cards saved up (eg, gay marriage) to play when the time is right. Her biggest worry is taking the fall for drooping property prices.
What will Mr. Abbott do in a couple of years when:-
The NBNCo is spreading it’s network and many in the country have high speed broad band for the first time. When the NBNCo is a fact of life and the value of doing it correct in the first time becomes apparent.
Carbon price is a fact of life and the sky has not fallen as predicted by Mr. Abbott. Will Mr. Abbott continues to push his unrealistic and wasteful Direct Action, which no expert has supported here or anywhere else in the world. Much of what he proposes is not proven and still in the early days of research.
Parents are getting use to attending their schools and are impressed at how they are equipped and sit in comfort in the new halls during, what can be boring procedures.
When much of the road work across the country that has decreased the black spots become a pleasure to travel on.
As people understand that many of the health problems an are being address with the new health plans.
Parent of disabled children start to believe their children are beginning to receive some assistance.
The biggest change will be the disappearance of refugee boats coming to our shores. Personally I found little harm in letting them I.
Will he continue to swan around the country, at taxpayers expense, screaming, the sky is falling, the sky is falling.
Over a million and a quarter of homes across the country have experience the benefit of having their homes insulated and are amazed at the fewer times they have turned on the heaters or air conditioning.
@Catching up
If this is a plug for organised public spending instead of yet more costly expensive PPSs that have governments bending over backward to reimburse failed projects and their high flying well paid executives with taxpayers monies, then Im all for it.
Its really about time we also realised the stupidity of our policy penchant fo privatising all (all) things public, and especially airports. Privatised airports act as a form of border security and its quite clear that far more illegal immigrants arrive on planes anyway. Public airports and a higher level of security might also help protect innocent travellers from terrorism or having their bags loaded with drugs by corrupt private sector employees working at the airpor in baggage handling or whatever (including a particular executive of MQ bank itself). The not that long ago the debacle of bikies brawling in public areas in Sydney’s airport – showed that there was simply not enough security on the spot (cost savings).
It was a huge mistake to privatise airports. Absolutely huge.
But Tony Abbott would tell you otherwise.
I am slightly re-assured by the fact that Shanahan – a diligent player of the insiders game – has independently come to the same conclusion as me about the political chess game: that the ALP is banking the Gillard’s superiority in long-term policy strategy to counter the Abbot’s edge in short-term political tactics. The Australian’s political editor opines that Gillard’s long game is a big gamble:
The key here is for the government to regain the initiative on bragging about the benefits of the carbon tax. Right now the Opposition has the initiative in moaning about the costs of this tax. The government really does suffer from an acute shortage of competent political communicators. All of its senior talking heads look like they are phoning it in.
Gillard has, sadly, managed to break down hirsute stereotypes about fiery red-heads.
Wong, by contrast, has conformed to ethnic stereotypes about Oriental inscrutability.
Swan has all the sex-appeal of a suburban accountant working out your tax rebate.
The ALP leadership desperately needs to reach down and bring up its inner-Alpha males if it wants to bring the public along with the carbon tax. You would think Peter Garrett would be the ideal man for the job, but apparently he is not up to it.
May, in my working life I worked for Doc’s in NSW. There were numerous forums and meetings where we were asked how to improve the service without spending money. This was an impossible quest and the money disappear over time, sourced out to NGO’s and private operators.
As is the norm, they only took the easy to manage children, leaving us to cope with those with more problems and needs. It was my task, as a case manager to work with children in both systems.
It was cruel to sit in on regular case conferences, where those in the outsourced, mainly church and private care got whatever money was requested. The cost to the Department was tens of thousands a year more costly than those in Doc’s care.
It was impossible to get the necessary resources and money for those who remained in Doc’s direct care. The Foster Carers were also paid less. Less for having in their care, children that others found too difficult to handle.
A do not need to add, most of the bad publicity came from those in Doc’s direct care. You have the most harmed, you have the most problems and little success. Very soul destroying.
To run salt into the wound, the NGO’s and private agencies were not slow in returning children that they found too difficult.
The PM is under extreme pressure.
Show me where a Labor PM has not been under extreme pressure. What is new.
@Catching up
Gillard is obviously under pressure – under pressure from her own right wing insiders as well…under pressure from the big business sycophants in labor, under pressure from labor modelling neoliberal price and market pushers, under pressure from US moles in her own party, under pressure from infliltration by the same free market de-regulation globalisation no barriers no protection (no looking at whats its doing no looking at inequality no looking at marginal employment) ideologues that have brought the US to its knees.
Julia better shake then off before she gets my vote. A Greenspan fan after Greenspan has disappeared and is now seen as part of the problem post GFC, by any other name is not exactly what we need right now.
Im glad those parents are sitting in confortable school halls. Im glad people dont have to turn their air conditioning on because they have ceiling insulation….Im glad even if it did cost the government more than expected (that extra money is out there and circulating and doing a good job – better than the Reserve Bank and its gloomy inflation warnings and its threats of interest rate hikes and its lies about full employment which might only apply in one state anyway).
Ill give credit where credit is due. Some decent investment in infrastructure, nation wide was made. As far as I can see Howard spent our money alright, rewarding useless things like the Brethren and marginal seats. Spending was always about politics for him. What national project (like NBN) or insulation did Howard ever actually produce?
Cant think of a thing. Maybe someone can prove me wrong? (Oh hang on – there was the aboriginal intervention which actually took money away from aboriginal people and rewarded hundreds of doctors and bureacrats with Northern territory fly ins and conferences – did he put many souls on on the ground in those outposts of disadvantage, to actually continue the work?).
Oh but hang on ….I forgot…wasnt the above all Rudds doing? And isnt it Julia that is going around with the word surplus popping out of every second sentence she utters in the media just now?
My vote looking less likely.
This thread from start to end is a real pastiche of confusion, ignorance and naivety.
Politics does not consist of parties and leaders. It consists only of public opinion and, more importantly, electoral votes on polling day. The parties and politicians we get float out of this soup and madly wave-about trying to collect enough attention to push an agenda this way or that. Under universal suffrage – all politics boils down to marginal seat symbolism.
So there is no point complaining about reality. You always get the leaders, identities, akademics and organisations that society determines in the whole.
I can only assume that most if not all of the above posts emanate from those who really have no capacity to work within existing structures, cultures, and dialogues for progressive change. More often than not they parade their isolation as their own self-worth. This is a fools game.
Forget, ‘Turnbull’, ‘Gillard’, ‘Abbott’, and ‘Brown’. If these all disappeared in a puff of smoke, another almost identical set of puppets would emerge, and the same agendas and policy plays would still flood public consciousness and opinion. The only difference would be they had different names.
Chris, some troll has hijacked your name…