Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.
I’m now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here.
John Quiggin 
Dr David Berger points out the rank hypocrisy and complete illogicality of the Qld. CHO.
What has happened of course is that people like the Qld. CHO. have adopted an entirely ideological position with respect to the SARS-CoV-2 virus which causes COVID-19 disease. Because responding adequately to the SARS-CoV-2 virus would have required some significant changes to the current business model of neoliberal capitalism, COVID-19 was rapidly deemed to be a “nothing” virus. We should note that responding adequately to the SARS-CoV-2 virus would *not* have required the abolition of mixed economy capitalism or social democratic capitalism, only the abolition of extreme unfettered neoliberal capitalism. This was what could not be countenanced by the powers that be or rather by the capitals that be.
It is not so much that we are locked into capitalism, it is that we are locked into one, totally inflexible model of capitalism: a model which it is not permitted to change in the slightest, no matter the nature of any external shock we face. This is like an automated drive-navigation system which takes us over the same bridge ever day… and still tries to do so the day after a flood washes the bridge away.
The neoliberal ideologues want to keep the mass contacts business model intact despite the appearance of a new, highly contagious dangerous disease now running at third leading cause of death. This is probably a significant under-count as the increased downstream deaths from heart attack, stroke etc. in the “recovered” category could be properly accounted as having COVID-19 as a contributing cause.
By the “mass contacts” business model I mean that business model which requires mass gatherings of all economic and money transaction kinds from the demands to work in offices and CBDs when it is not necessary, to the demands that every form of consumption which requires mass crowding (from sporting events and concerts to tourism, flights and cruise ships) must continue and even be subsidized by government.
Neoliberal capitalism cannot envisage any socially useful new way of doing business or any new business as such, like the business of giving buildings and mass transit clean air solutions which filter out pathogens and reduce indoor CO2 levels. Capitalism of the neoliberal sort is not a radical driver of any change, except for changes in favor of the accumulation of capital by the 1% and especially the 0.001%. It is a moribund, reactionary system unable to change, refusing to change in the face of new external shocks and challenges. There is no way our society and civilization can survive under neoliberal capitalism. It cannot deal with the modern challenges of climate change and the pandemicene, to name two.
US petroleum geologist Art Berman tweeted yesterday (Jul 13):
Are we looking at rising fuel prices in the coming months, consequently raising prices of everything else?
Recession and inflation.
Wrong assumption – running out of workers. Elastic pool.
I did not even think of that! No one has said such here – I think. Has anyone challenged base assumptions?
“The Simple Mistake That Almost Triggered a Recession
“Leading economists said we’d need higher unemployment to tame inflation. Here’s why they were wrong.
By Adam Ozimek
…
“Summers and others saw a recession as the only cure for this situation because they believed the economy was essentially out of workers.”
…
“The fact that many leading economists seem drawn to excessively pessimistic views about the labor market is a problem. If the Summers perspective had carried the day, the Federal Reserve might have felt compelled to plunge the country into a recession, causing massive avoidable suffering. The good news is that, moving forward, the continued improvements in labor supply bode well for the chances of a soft landing. The share of prime working-age adults who are employed remains below its peak in the late 1990s, meaning the workforce still has room to grow. This is not to credit labor supply entirely for the slowdown in inflation, or to suggest that we could have gotten here without rate hikes to curb demand.” …
….
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/07/inflation-jobs-unemployment-recession/674593/
Profit Price Spiral.
“Australian Airports Association tells parliamentary inquiry market dominance has allowed the two airlines to jack up profit margins
…
“Analysis of Qantas’ domestic earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) – an indication of profit margins – shows an increase from 12% in 2016-17 to the 18% forecast in the past financial year. This effectively represented a 50% increase in profit margins over the six-year period.
“The AAA said typical profit margins for domestic aviation operators in Australia were between 8 and 10%.
…
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jul/15/qantas-and-virgin-duopoly-dwarfs-the-australian-banking-and-supermarket-industries-airport-peak-body-says
Feel free to remind me. 😊
Prof Eliot Jacobson tweeted earlier today (Jul 17):
It seems the Earth System has already breached the +1.5 °C warming threshold multiple times on a daily basis, and perhaps occasionally on a weekly basis. It seems a breach on a monthly basis is fast approaching, and is also becoming increasingly likely on an annual basis, perhaps for next year (2024). That means a longer-term breach is more likely later this decade.
Warming is only going to accelerate while the Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) keeps getting larger. The 36-month step average EEI is equivalent to the energy released from 11.35 Hiroshima nuclear bomb magnitude equivalents per second.
James Hansen, Makiko Sato and Reto Ruedy wrote in their latest communication dated 13 Jul 2023, titled The Climate Dice are Loaded. Now, a New Frontier?, that included:
Click to access ClimateDice.13July2023.pdf
Geoff quotes: “The 36-month step average EEI is equivalent to the energy released from 11.35 Hiroshima nuclear bomb magnitude equivalents per second.”
11.35 Hiroshima nuclear bomb magnitude equivalents per second…
Adding to the stock of;
“… some six billion Hiroshima bombs’ worth of heat inside the climate system.” … ” The ocean also absorbs about 30 percent of the carbon humans produce, adding up to almost 200 billion tons since the industrial revolution.”
Article below has references for every statement.
“What’s Happening in the Ocean, and Why It Matters to You and Me
“With unprecedented marine heat waves sweeping the globe, we need better solutions for ocean sustainability
By Katharine Hayhoe on
July 14, 2023
..
“Over the last five decades, we’ve burned enough coal, gas and oil, cut down enough trees, and produced enough other emissions to trap some six billion Hiroshima bombs’ worth of heat inside the climate system. Shockingly, though, only 1 percent of that heat has ended up in the atmosphere.
…
“Instead, the majority of that estimated 380 zettajoules of heat, nearly 90 percent of it, is going into the ocean. There, it’s setting ocean heat records year after year and driving increasingly severe marine heat waves. The ocean also absorbs about 30 percent of the carbon humans produce, adding up to almost 200 billion tons since the industrial revolution.
…
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/whats-happening-in-the-ocean-and-why-it-matters-to-you-and-me/
I very much welcome the move by Daniel Andrews to put $100 limits per day on playing pokies, on restricting access to machines to card holders (to prevent machines being used for money laundering) and restricting venue opening times. .
My confident forecast is that the registered clubs and the pokies groups will oppose this with a huge financial campaign – the basis will be that jobs will be lost etc.
If Andrews resists his government will be threatened. It already has been in a limited way.
I don’t like you Dan but this is the best regulation that you have introduced. Don’t chicken out.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/high-stakes-clubs-pubs-push-for-compensation-over-new-pokies-rules-20230717-p5dox7.html
Agree that protection of problem gamblers should be increased. I hold in general that the rampant exploitation of human weaknesses, rather than acting to assist people with disadvantages and problems, is a sign of a decaying society. Such a society is destined for collapse if the rot is not stopped.
Interesting that the ABC is running investigative stories on 7:30 Report and Four Corners which show the rampant corruption in the building industry and in the audit and consulting sector. In the latter case, the corruption of governance, corporate tax avoidance and robbery of the public purse have reached staggering proportions. Again, a nation stuck on this path is destined for failed state status.
Add in the refusal to listen to the science in the form of the refusals to act on climate change and on a dangerous ongoing pandemic, then add in failed health, welfare, housing, environment and immigration policies and again we can see that Australia on current directions is destined for an horrendous collapse.
What is happening temperature-wise in the northern hemisphere right now is terrifying. Our next two or summers could define Australia for ever. If we have terrible summers (most likely) and fail to get our act together after that then it’s game over. We will be a failed state and hellscape by 2030.
Harry, Ikon.
The Vicrorian gambling leguslation is good. But useless to the die hard addicted gamblers with a phone.
Our family member with a gambling addiction has been offered, used and broken every gambling restriction. Court order. In house restrictions etc.
When challenged by us to use or abide by Australian laws the response is;
“I get 5 offers per day from OS online gambling outfits, offering an account WITH CASH incenrives.”.
As an addict, free cash for your addicrion is verrrrrry hard to resist.
And encrypted messaging apps ala Telegram will dodge any local monitoring.
Nice for those who have a gambling problem.
Useless for addicts.
Said addict has gone to ground. And selling everything ever owned, and some not, to feed addiction. Until total recurrent disasters strike. Usually now at 3mth intervals.
Known to every RSL. Known to police, courts, addition services.
Any way around above?
Harry, Ikon & all. Discuss…
“Privatization of infrastructure is probably the main cause of inflation squeezing the the budget of the 99%.”
“Look at something we can blame on labour”
*
Quotes from:
“Economists Radhika Desai and Michael Hudson explain the reality of inflation.”
“The truth about inflation (animated explainer)
h/t nakedcapitalism
Professor Jason Box posted on 16 Jul 2023 another informative YouTube video titled insane flooding rain to Greenland – rapids in an atmospheric river, duration 0:11:26. Prof Box talks about high rainfall (i.e. ≥1 foot / 304.8 mm of rainfall within a 24-hour period) events observed in Greenland in recent years.
This is an excellent presentation discussing atmospheric ‘river’ rapids that instrumentation is now observing in greater detail in southern Greenland!
Meanwhile, the daily 2 m air mean Temperature Northern Hemisphere (0–90°N, 0–360°E) reached a record high of 22.21 °C on Sun, 16 Jul 2023, and the daily 2 m air mean Temperature Tropics (23.5°S–23.5°N, 0–360°E) is at record seasonal highs (up to and including Sun, 16 Jul 2023):
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/
It is a good thing that Victoria has cancelled its hosting of the Commonwealth Games. Much needed state government money will be saved from being wasted on an event which that state cannot afford. This is a sign of things to come. States are realizing they cannot afford such extravaganzas as they struggle to meet basic expenditure needs.
It is to be hoped that the hosting of the 2032 Olympic Games will also be cancelled in Queensland. I think this is quite likely given the way things are going. Here in Australia, we need to concentrate on the basics where we are utterly failing; namely in health, welfare, education, housing, environmental action and climate action. These areas are all in dire need of resources. We cannot afford to waste resources on foolish and unnecessary extravaganzas . There is too much basic need which is not being met in this country.
KT2, I don’t have any great suggestions with respect to your family member. One point is for the government to continue outlawing such services and to publicise that it will not pursue wins that have not been paid out. The measures proposed by Andrews – uniform breaks in playing time and increased time between spins reduce the loss rate but in the steady state they will have low impact apart from allowing for gaming cues to set in. The main effect of these measures (and the one the clubs are wailing about) is that the profitability of machines in Australia will fall. So hopefully there will be less machines locally. Then less people will hopefully end up in the situation of your family member.