4 thoughts on “As gas-guzzlers dominate our roads, the queue to buy an EV in Oz just gets longer”
JQ: – “Unsurprisingly, Australia is among the world’s laggards in the take-up of EVs, which account for around 6.5% of new sales, with hybrids another 10.5%. Given the longevity of Australian vehicles (typically 10-20 years), the prospect of electrifying our car fleet in the early 2030s is slipping away.”
Even if Australia achieved 99% EV sales by 2030, even at this pace, 80% of Australia’s fleet would likely still run on fossil fuels. See Tom Quinn’s tweet (I keep referring to) posted on 28 Jun 2022:
What if we achieved 99% EV sales by 2030?
Well that would see 20% of Australia's fleet become electric over the same time. Almost double the amount from our Norway scenario(!).
Per BITRE report Motor Vehicles, Australia: January 2022, published Oct 2022:
* There were 20.7 million registered motor vehicles as at 31 January 2022 – an increase of approximately 2 per cent between January 2021 and January 2022.
* There are a further 4.5 million trailers, caravans, campers and plant and equipment (e.g. agricultural tractors, all-terrain vehicles, forklifts, golf buggies) not included in total registered motor vehicles.
* New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland have the highest number of vehicle registrations, and together account for over 76 per cent of all registered motor vehicles.
* Petrol-powered vehicles comprised around 70.1 per cent of the fleet at end January 2022, down from 71.3 per cent in 2021. Diesel-powered vehicles accounted for 27.2 per cent of the fleet in 2022, up from 26.4 per cent in 2021.
* The report separately enumerates battery electric vehicles (BEV) and hybrid-electric vehicles (HEV). There were approximately 40,000 registered BEVs as at 31 January 2022, and increase of approximately 100 per cent over 2021, including 34,200 passenger cars, an increase of 118 per cent over 2021. There were approximately 277,000 registered HEVs in 2022, an increase of 35 per cent over 2021.
* The average age of vehicles across Australia increased from 10.8 years in 2021 to 11.0 years in 2022.
Simple mathematics indicates there’s no prospect of electrifying Australia’s car fleet in the early 2030s, unless the legacy ICEV fleet is retired early. I’d suggest that may happen if petroleum fuels become scarce/unaffordable in the coming few years.
People won’t face what’s really required. What is really required is for people to give up the personal automobile altogether. Mass production and mass use of even electric vehicles and infrastructure still requires a huge fossil fuel footprint without a complete switch of power, mining and manufacturing to renewables. Even then providing 85 million new vehicles per year would be environmentally prohibitive going forward.
We need to be at the point, very soon, of using shank’s pony, bicycles and mass transit for about 95% of personal and commute journey kilometers. Nothing short of this will save us.
Ikonoclast: – “People won’t face what’s really required.”
Drastic changes will likely be forced upon many people, and I’d suggest various analyses I see indicate that looks increasingly likely sometime within this decade.
Art Berman tweeted on Sep 13:
“OPEC sees fourth-quarter deficit of 3.3 million barrels a day.
“WTI trades above $89 a barrel after rising by 1.8% on Tuesday”
"OPEC sees fourth-quarter deficit of 3.3 million barrels a day.
OPEC’s oil supply deficit outlook may be a portent of larger scarcities to follow…
The current fashion for giant cars bothers me .They are expensive and unsafe .They can drive straight over potholes making them worse , while normal cars must avoid them .Visibility is a problem ,they cant see what is right in front of them .My 16 year old dog was knocked over by one at slow speed when we were crossing the road in front of it .They waited for me to pass but didnt see her as she is down lower .She survived but had to get stitches on her leg .
John Quiggin 
JQ: – “Unsurprisingly, Australia is among the world’s laggards in the take-up of EVs, which account for around 6.5% of new sales, with hybrids another 10.5%. Given the longevity of Australian vehicles (typically 10-20 years), the prospect of electrifying our car fleet in the early 2030s is slipping away.”
Even if Australia achieved 99% EV sales by 2030, even at this pace, 80% of Australia’s fleet would likely still run on fossil fuels. See Tom Quinn’s tweet (I keep referring to) posted on 28 Jun 2022:
Per BITRE report Motor Vehicles, Australia: January 2022, published Oct 2022:
Simple mathematics indicates there’s no prospect of electrifying Australia’s car fleet in the early 2030s, unless the legacy ICEV fleet is retired early. I’d suggest that may happen if petroleum fuels become scarce/unaffordable in the coming few years.
People won’t face what’s really required. What is really required is for people to give up the personal automobile altogether. Mass production and mass use of even electric vehicles and infrastructure still requires a huge fossil fuel footprint without a complete switch of power, mining and manufacturing to renewables. Even then providing 85 million new vehicles per year would be environmentally prohibitive going forward.
We need to be at the point, very soon, of using shank’s pony, bicycles and mass transit for about 95% of personal and commute journey kilometers. Nothing short of this will save us.
Ikonoclast: – “People won’t face what’s really required.”
Drastic changes will likely be forced upon many people, and I’d suggest various analyses I see indicate that looks increasingly likely sometime within this decade.
Art Berman tweeted on Sep 13:
OPEC’s oil supply deficit outlook may be a portent of larger scarcities to follow…
The current fashion for giant cars bothers me .They are expensive and unsafe .They can drive straight over potholes making them worse , while normal cars must avoid them .Visibility is a problem ,they cant see what is right in front of them .My 16 year old dog was knocked over by one at slow speed when we were crossing the road in front of it .They waited for me to pass but didnt see her as she is down lower .She survived but had to get stitches on her leg .