Monday Message Board

Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.

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13 thoughts on “Monday Message Board

  1. Published at John Menadue’s Pearls and Irritations on 15 Oct 2023 was a piece by Peter Sainsbury headlined Environment: On track for 2 degrees of warming within 20 years. It included (bold text my emphasis):

    NASA has released a high-resolution (25x25km squares) database of daily climate conditions over Earth’s entire land surface for the period 1950 to 2100. This has permitted prediction of when the global mean temperature will reach 2°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial level (the ‘crossing year’), and investigation of global and regional climate conditions (e.g., temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, wind speed) and their impacts (heat stress and fire weather) at the ‘crossing year’ compared with the average for 1950-1979.

    The results do not look good:

    * Depending on the level of emissions in the near future, the ‘crossing year’ will be somewhere between 2041 (high emissions) and 2044 (low emissions). Basically, we’ve done so little for so long that whatever we do with emissions over the next 20 years is going to make no real difference to when global warming exceeds 2 degrees.

    https://johnmenadue.com/environment-on-track-for-2-degrees-of-warming-within-20-years/

    Despite all the rhetoric about working towards “net-zero”, governments at all levels continue to encourage and facilitate more fossil fuel projects.

  2. What governments, all acting for the ruling class, aka the plutocracy, continue to do is opaquely legislate a wide range of increasingly draconian “security” measures that are not needed now. It is done in preparation for what they know is coming home in spades to them in future – the cricket bats and shovels. The opaqueness may be due to actual secrecy whether a legislated requirement or not, media complicity, or due to cover provided by manufactured communal division, discord, and fears sown by campaigns promoted to divide and distract such as those related to ID politics, immigration, race and religion. There’s only one war. – svante

  3. Paraphrasing David Marr of late (Killing for Country) once more and in addition making an obvious link to historical parallels as we approach the end of October and a possible version of Armageddon:

    Settler Australia is a country with foundations resting first in conquest and then in unspeakable ongoing crime.

    And Usrael same, same.

    The conquest in both cases was effected largely by white British Australian mounted and Australian Aborigine mounted troopers such as the horrendous Queensland Native Police and “Queensland Black Watch” cavalry. In the cases respectively of Australia from 1788 to the 1930’s, and, during WW1 particularly on 31st October 1917 at the Battle for Beersheba south of Jerusalem and Hebron in a part of Ottoman Syri later known as the British Mandate for Palestine. Two days later, on 2nd December, came the Balfour Declaration authorised on 31 October 1917 after the Battle for Beersheba outcome. The declaration was a British Government statement made public by British Foreign Secretary Arthur Balfour after contact with wealthy banker Baron Rothschild, head of the British branch of European Jewish causes. The British Mandate for Palestine eventuated in 1920 which was then split in 1947 by deserting British into the state of Palestine and the settler colonial state of Israel following a mounting campaign of violent actions conducted first by white pan-European settler Zionist and then Israeli terrorists and troops through the 1940s up to the 1953 cementing of the criminal ongoing military Usrael expansionist settler colonial occupation project.

    See:

    Dr. Gabor Maté Speaks Out on Israel and Palestine: A Must-Watch Discussion

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6_GDDa4bmI

    “we don’t have post traumatic stress disorder here (also applicable to First Nations Australia) because the trauma is never post.”

    “Dr. Gabor Maté, a famous psychologist and author, goes deeply into the complex and long-standing Israel/Palestine issue in this must-see video. Dr. Maté will provide his unique viewpoint on this important global issue, and you will be informed, enlightened, and inspired … Dr. Gabor Maté, a Holocaust survivor, is going to give an interesting and emotionally charged testimony. His deep historical links provide invaluable insight into the Israel-Palestine conflict. Dr. Maté’s insight is both powerful and enlightening, transcending headlines. The conversation will provide you with untold stories, historical background, and personal experiences to help you better understand the conflict. This is the most beautiful and powerful testimony on this subject I’ve ever heard.”

    – BTW, coincidently others apparently have today made similar connections turning on recent reports from Gaza. After writing this I saw that SBS World Movies, channel 32, has inserted “The Light Horsemen” into their programming for tonight and a few more times over the next couple of days…

    Svante

  4. Nice try but no cigar.

    I wasn’t around in the 40s, or the WWI era, and I don’t know what I’d have thought if I had been. What I know *now* is, Israel has held their ground for decades, so to me it is established.

    Why are you even talking about this now? It’s not relevant. We aren’t going to reopen the Civil War (the US one), the war with Mexico, etc etc. Why would this be different?

    I feel dumb for even responding, but, I have a certain curiosity as to why you want to talk about ancient history?

  5. Oh and btw, “settler colonial” doesn’t in the least carry any meaning to me. You can stop saying it now. We can’t fight the same wars forever (I hope).

  6. You know, if it seemed like I don’t care about people’s feelings, that is not true – and I apologize if it seemed that way. (I just don’t think that we should make decisions based on them.)

    I think maybe it would have been better to just not reply.

  7. On Monday 231016, Griffith Uni sponsored an article in IN QUEENSLAND headed: “Growing gulf between Australians and scientists over urgency for climate action”, It has a link to a 40 page “Climate Action Survey 2022” summary report in which there is some comparison to the 2021 survey.

    https://inqld.com.au/sponsored/2023/10/16/growing-gulf-between-australians-and-scientists-over-urgency-for-climate-action/

    September 2023
    Climate Action Survey 2022
    Griffith University, Queensland Australia
    Summary for policy
    and decision making

    Click to access MC05692-Climate-Action-Beacon-Summary-Report-for-Policy-and-Decision-Making-2022-update-Copy.pdf

    …Key findings
    Do Australians think we have a climate crisis?

    ….Results also show 15% of Australians believed climate change is an “extremely serious” problem right now (compared to 22% in 2021), whereas 31% believed it will be so in 2050 (compared to 45% in 2021). These survey results could help explain why governments remain committed to advancing only modest climate policies for which there is a broad electoral support base—such as a 2050 Net Zero Emissions target—rather than the rapid, transformational changes in all sectors that scientific assessments conclude are needed now. – page 5

    How have extreme climatic conditions impacted Australians?

    …Several questions probed the effects of climatic and disaster events on respondents’ use of insurance. Among Australians who incurred property damage due to the 2022 floods, only 25% claimed on their insurance, with 92% of the claims successful. Only 22% of those affected knew if and how they had changed their insurance coverage. In a different section of the questionnaire, 62% of people indicated that they would be at least moderately willing to move their home if their current residence was deemed uninsurable due to its exposure to the risk of flooding, bushfires, or other natural disasters. Thus, about two thirds of Australians are willing, while 20% are not willing, and 18% are
    only slightly willing to move from an uninsurable home. – page 23

    What do Australians think about climate policies?

    …To explore how personality was linked with climate action behaviours, repeat respondents completed short scales measuring five personality traits: conscientiousness, agreeableness, emotional stability, openness to experience, and narcissism.

    For example, we found that those people who are more conscientious (e.g., “I am dependable and self disciplined”) were positively associated with high levels of connection to nature, self rated climate change knowledge, and low levels of impacts of flooding.

    Of all personality traits, openness (e.g., “I am open to new experiences, complex”) was the most strongly associated with nearly all of the climate change variables, especially with the connection to nature, engagement in pro-environmental behaviours, green identity, interest infuture pro-environmental behaviours, personal norms and psychological adaptation. Its association with connection to nature was the highest single correlation.

    New respondents completed a shortened six-item scale assessing the extent to which they supported the New Ecological Paradigm, a view of the world that acknowledges the need for humans to live in harmony with nature. This worldview was more strongly endorsed by progressive than by conservative Australians. Members of a minority or marginalised group and Australians who had experienced natural disasters and/or impacts of climate change also scored relatively highly on this scale. Australians with this worldview tended to report strong beliefs in climate change, be very concerned about climate change, regard the issue as highly important, and report strong support for pro- environmental policies. – page 27

    …Final remarks
    Planning has commenced to conduct a third iteration of the survey in the second half of 2023. If you would like to contribute to the survey study, please contact:
    A/Prof. Sameer Deshpande
    s.deshpande@griffith.edu.au

    Dr Karlien Paas
    k.paas@griffith.edu.au

    General enquiries about the survey and opportunities
    to collaborate can be directed to:

    Natasha Hennessy
    n.hennessey@griffith.edu.au

    My reading of the above survey report is that things deteriorated last year as overall the Australian public grew more relaxed in crucial areas even as adverse global heating effects notably increased over the short 2022 survey period. Was that due to a dangerous hollow Albanese change of government effect? Still, the survey does show where and potentially how to target information and education for better effect and wider public engagement.

    – Svante

  8. Well, I hadn’t seen the movie in a long time, so I watched it again. The movie “The Lighthorsemen”, produced in 1987 and now well dated of that period, concludes with a brief biographical note displayed over actors portraying some of the historical figures. Perhaps it is no coincidence that the British army intelligence officer who set the ground for the Battle for Beersheba turning point of history via a tricky deception of the Ottomans and Germans is mentioned as going on to play a significant role as a supporter of Zionism and in the founding of Israel – the only mention of those two items in the movie.

    Also, recalling that on the same day following the breaking of the long military stalemate in Palestine by the Lighthorse charge on Beersheba the authorisation of the Balfour Declaration occurred, and in recalling Baron Rothschild’s part in that perhaps it is no coincidence the movie credits conclude with Rothschild Securities Australia singled out with a prominent credit for financing this movie.

    – Svante

  9. I haven’t followed the intricacies of Israel Palestinian politics much but i am worried by possible parallels with Americas response to the 9/11 attack .Terrorists aim to provoke wild irrational responses that result in a public relations disaster for the powerful state .Israel may be playing into the hands of the terrorists if their actions begin to look like a disproportionate response .This may result in a wider conflict developing with who knows what implications .Its a bit sad that some of our politicians seem afraid to go anywhere near expressing this concern .They are even debating whether there should be any limit at all to what Israel can do now. We were part of the coalition that went to the middle east after 9/11 so we should know better. Concern for Palestinian people is not the same as antisemitism and the state of Israel is not identical with the Jewish religion.

    Sunshine

  10. Modern history typically begins in the late Middle Ages, around the 15th century, with the end of the Middle Ages and the beginning of the Early Modern period. This is marked by significant changes in society, such as the rise of nation-states and the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.

    Ancient history belonged to the empires near the Mediterranean, whereas modern history belongs to the empires near the Atlantic Ocean.

    To suggest that the plight of the Palestinians is not part of modern history is to invent another understanding of the history epochs.

    The empires of the Ottomans, Britain, Germany, France, Austria-Hungary and Russia, all have impacted on what is happening in the middle east today. Turkey, the UK, The Republic of Germany, the French Republic and Russia still share the blame for failing to answer the palestinian question. The USA stands complicit for making the plight of Palestinians worse. ‘Pitiful peace summits and inadequate deal making cannot wipe the hands clean of the blood of palestinians.
    And it’s not just a conflict between two nationalities. No matter what western media outlets pretend is the issue in the middle east is, the conflict in this region is one of ideology not politics. It’s not the state of Israel versus Hamas ( backed by Iran/Syria/Egypt/Jordan). The real conflict is between western European culture and eastern arabic/persian culture.

    Yet only two sides are being accepted as being in conflict. But look at where those two sides came from in the first place. On one side, a nation was established because of the guilt felt by the WW2 allies including the UK and the USA. On the other side, a whole nationality was displaced without compunction. Over the last seventy years, conflict flashpoints have only got worse and no genuine effort has been made to help the Palestinian people. They have been marginalised and their homes destroyed.

    It should surprise no one that an oppressed people; one virtually abandoned by the UK, France, Italy, Germany, Russia and the USA: has decided to take matters into its own hand. Being patient has not worked. Being reluctantly compliant has not worked. Waiting for a superpower to intervene has not worked. Relying on the United nations has not worked.

    What other alternative was left to the palestinians?

    Sanctimonious statements from London, Paris, Berlin, Moscow and Washington will not change the reality of a people who are treated as second class humans. All the condescending hand wringing in the world will never help the Palestinians put food on the table, get proper medical attention for their children and give a whole nation hope.

    It’s not a question of who DID what? Its a question of which nation DID NOT do anything? That line is long but is headed by the USA, the UK, the Euro zone countries and Russia. They stand by as a whole people are mentally abused by military bullies, dictated to by another nation, forced out of their homes by bombings, starved by indifference and sacrificed for revenge over crimes they did not commit.

    Sound familiar? Did not this happen to another nationality during the 1940s?

    “Those who fail to remember history are condemned to repeat it.”

    We are seeing just that happen today.

    The Ottoman Turks did it to the Armenians, the British did it to the Irish, the French did it to African tribes, the Americans did it to the Mexicans and the Germans did it to the Jews. Russia also persecuted Jewish settlements in their empire.

    So lets not pretend things are different in the Twenty-First Century. Ethnic cleansing is occurring and not just in the Middle East. We humans are great at committing atrocities and then justifying our actions with fake news and outright lies.

    If no one calls for change and tolerance then nations will continue to oppress, marginalise and bomb minorities.

  11. Just fyi, if I said “ancient” history – maybe I did, I don’t recall now – it should be understood that here in the US, anything that happened longer ago than, say, the 50s is considered “ancient.” So I didn’t mean it the way it may have sounded to you.

    Whether this cultural trait is good or bad, I do think it describes most of us here.

    I don’t really agree with much of how you have described things, but I’m running out the door, so I can’t do your comment justice today – I do apologize.

    Also, maybe I should just stop, anyway. Few people here want to discuss this Middle East, and I can’t say I blame them.

    However thank you for your response, I will give it more thought. Meanwhile though, I do certainly agree that the regular people in Gaza are in a very tough situation and I hope the worst will somehow not happen. (There are a number of ways this could all still turn out. Meanwhile, it’s time to pray. I think it works!)

  12. Posted at Climate Code Red on Oct 18 was a piece by David Spratt headlined One swallow doesn’t make a Spring, so do a few super-warm months mean global warming has really hit 1.5°C? It included a reference to Hansen’s latest communication:

    Their conclusion is straight-forward but stunning: “Thus, if this El Nino peak is as high as we project it will be, global temperature will oscillate about the yellow region. The 1.5°C global warming level will have been reached, for all practical purposes” (emphasis added).

    If this is the case, “there will be no need to ruminate for 20 years about whether the 1.5°C level has been reached, as IPCC proposes. On the contrary, Earth’s enormous energy imbalance assures that global temperature will be rising still higher for the foreseeable future.”

    https://www.climatecodered.org/2023/10/one-swallow-doesnt-make-spring-so-has.html

    Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) project no emissions reduction through 2050. So much for “net-zero by 2050”.

  13. Alexander downer said that suffering the holocaust means we just have to accept that Israel will do what it feels it needs to.

    Why is ‘Americas security ‘ the justification for Americas arms aid to Ukraine and Israel etc ? Americans Right extremists and the public face of ‘conservatives’ say so . Conservatives think the donations are worth it and the far right thinks its a waste of money . I would have thought maintaining an empire that directs the lions share of the worlds wealth their way was a more likely reason. Maybe it would be rude to own up to that officially ,best to stick to the line about defending freedom and needing to protect the ‘rules based order’ on everyone else’s behalf . Printing money to give away is easier when you have the worlds reserve currency and you can rig the system .America would have to be one of the most secure countries of the world wrt threat of actual invasion ,even if it was isolated physically and otherwise for decades .

    sunshine

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