Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.
I’m now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here.
John Quiggin 
Benefit-cost analysis must be done on all forms of energy delivery. There is too much confusion about the benefits, both social and monetary, that arise from energy provision options. The costs, including the social costs, are also not carefully spelt out. Precision in this area would show up the absurdity of nuclear energy as a low cost option. Transparency is not enough if the analysis is not clearly published in mass media. Too often mass media outlets fail in their duty to inform readers in an unbiased manner.
No one cares, but by the time I talked myself into the study, it was full for my demo. Oopsie! (I had seen an ad for a blood test for the C word.)
For the love of heaven, please everyone pray for us for Thursday. I don’t think I can watch. Still, I am hopeful. Just, not courageous I guess.
Random news, good and bad
The bad is the Energy Institute 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review They report continued growth in oil and gas consumption, and don’t expect it to fall anytime soon. It turns out that this is the long-running BP annual review under a new name, and essentially reflects what Big Oil is thinking, which is that massive investment in oil and gas has to continue. The IEA was initially part of the same club, but has jumped ship and is now a booster of renewables and electric vehicles. What they predict is a rapid transition and an oil glut. https://www.iea.org/news/slowing-demand-growth-and-surging-supply-put-global-oil-markets-on-course-for-major-surplus-this-decade We’ll find out soon enough which way the big banks are betting.
For an outlier prediction in the other direction, a one-man German consultant called Johannes Bernreuter predicts PV installations in 2024 will reach a staggering 600 to 660 GW https://www.bernreuter.com/newsroom/press-releases/pv-installations-will-reach-up-to-660-gw-in-2024/ . His apparent methodology is engagingly simple; the average growth in shipments publicly predicted by the six largest Chinese producers is 40%: apply this across the board and you get 622 GW. The downside risk is that struggling second-tier producers will do worse, balanced on the upside by this: “After most of the top six suppliers remained behind their shipment goals in 2023, the analyst assumes that they have been more cautious with their targets for 2024, which leaves room for upside potential”. Even the born-again IEA won’t go higher that 544 GW in its “most likely” outlook. On this basis, they expect that “clean electricity supply is forecast to meet all of the world’s demand growth through 2026”.
Bernreuter has classical, not neo-classical, economics on his side. In an industry characterised by low product differentiation, high fixed and low marginal costs – think textiles in Manchester in 1830 – the second-best strategy for a single producer is to produce flat out as long as the selling price is above marginal costs, and hope to make a profit by increasing market share. The first-choice strategy is to form a cartel, slows production and raise prices, but the CCP won’t allow this, whether from Karl Marx or James Mill I don’t know.
My personal contribution to the 600 GW will be a 2kw addition to my rooftop installation, or 0.00003%. The price hasn’t gone down much since the first part 3 years ago, since it is now dominated by the inverter and labour costs. I expect the addition to break even, with 50% self-consumption and a low but assured feed-in tariff. The altruistic green case has got somewhat weaker, since Spain’s grid electrical supply was 84% zero-carbon in May, and will surely hit 100% by 2030. Other countries on the European grid are less advanced, and my virtuous 4.2 kw will be cutting emissions until the entire vast 1-petawatt European synchronised grid, from Tarifa to Kharkiv and Tromsø to İskenderun, is clean as a whistle.
The panels are made by Tenka, a closed small outfit claiming to have a factory in Italy as well as one in China. Perhaps it pays to fly the microscopically thin PV cells to Brescia and assemble them there into modules, which involves gluing them to a large but thin sheet of armoured glass, with higher transport costs. The company offers a 30-year linear performance guarantee of 87%, ahead of the standard 25 years at 85%. These guarantees are not based on specific knowledge of minute differences between current panels, but on general industry-wide experience with old panels still soldiering on. The pool of these and the corresponding dataset doubles every 2-3 years, for any given age. The manufacturers and their insurers know what went wrong with the failures, and have taken steps to fix the causes. 30 years guaranteed implies an economic life closer to 40.
Magnix have put on sale a battery for electric aircraft, to go with their electric motors. https://www.magnix.aero/detail/magnix-launches-revolutionary-battery-product It’s a pure aviation company, and they are not aiming at land vehicles. The energy density is 300wh/kg, similar to that of Tesla’s best production batteries, and not yet high enough for commercial electric flight. Magnix are surely not expecting to sell many of these to the electric planemakers. The point for all of them is to develop the engineering ecosystem and get all its components certified as airworthy, ahead of the increase in energy density to the commercial tipping point for regional aviation. Can you see Elon Musk putting in the patient hours to see this through? Beyond the tipping point, things will change very rapidly, as the fuel and maintenance costs are far lower than for combustion flight.
Congratulations, James!! That must feel wonderful. I can only imagine it, for now. (My personal tech situation is more like that scene in Immortal Beloved with the carriage.) I will just have to learn the stick with things. Or rather, maybe I can find a consultant here.
I wonder if our insurance market functions as well as yours. I know that ours are sitting on a ton of information – I am just not sure if it is ever deployed to fix policy. Maybe it is, and I just don’t hear about it. It is rough waters here for insurance.
N: I was simply assuming that PV manufacturers are insuring or explicitly self-insuring their long-erm warranty liabilities, since it would be business malpractice not to. I don’t have any specific knowledge on this, so don’t take my word for it. If recent events have taught us anything, it’s that assumptions of rational behaviour are a lot less safe than we used to think.
Ouch! But, yes.
I could improve on rationality. I spend some energy worrying about things that probably won’t happen, when I should be doing these things (not in order): getting more smoke alarms (and decluttering) (here in the US, they have made them overcomplicated and over-expensive – wow, it’s as if we did not have functioning government! – I do not want one that talks!!) (seriously, they cost too much now, it’s not going to be good … ), adding additional fermented foods (i’m looking for a veggie kimchi that’s not too hot) (or I can just ramp up slowly), maybe adding in broccoli sprouts, adding in aromatherapy and cds to avoid road rage (I already try not to drive so much) and also just breathing better, avoiding tv news (not difficult for me) (I didn’t watch last night!) … hmm what else.
I should socialize more and find a job, too. That would also help with moments of anxiety.
On a social level, my hope is that we here can work on becoming more moderate. There is a mini-movement for that happening already. (Really!) I think sometimes that one can be a moderate person, even if one thinks that the solutions may or may not themselves lie in the center. I argue with myself about this, briefly. Then I get distracted… ha.
Europe marches on towards green electricity
Eurostat have published the 2023 data for electricity production in the EU. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20240627-1 Renewables were up to 44.7%. With slowly declining nuclear still at 22.8%, that makes the grid supply 67.5% zero-carbon, comfortably over two-thirds. Fossil fuel generation from coal and gas fell 19.7% to a 32.5% share, under one-third. <s>The transition was marred by massive power cuts across the synchronised European grid</s> – Not.
Notes: Storage is not included – it is a use not a source of primary energy. Ambient heat extracted by heat pumps is counted as a source, but not cooling. The EU-27 total excludes the UK, which is close to the EU averages, with the fossil share at 33%, and Norway, whose large renewable output exceeds all its domestic consumption, making it a lar ge exporter of gren electricity to the EU. I think that Eurostat must be including rooftop solar, estimating self-consumption, but I can’t be sure. Any adjustments for these factors won’t affect the macro picture.
The last three remaining nuclear power plants in Germany were taken offline in April 2023. The fuss over the timing of the phaseout was a German not a European issue, and with that out of the way, the legacy plants everywhere else will just age gracefully and uncontentiously towards their scheduled shutdowns over the coming decade.Europe marches on towards green electricity
Eurostat have published the 2023 data for electricity production in the EU. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20240627-1 Renewables were up to 44.7%. With slowly declining nuclear still at 22.8%, that makes the grid supply 67.5% zero-carbon, comfortably over two-thirds. Fossil fuel generation from coal and gas fell 19.7% to a 32.5% share, under one-third. The transition was marred by massive power cuts across the synchronised European grid – Not.
Notes: Storage is not included – it is a use not a source of primary energy. Ambient heat extracted by heat pumps is counted as a source, but not cooling. The EU-27 total excludes the UK, which is close to the EU averages, with the fossil share at 33%, and Norway, whose large renewable output exceeds all its domestic consumption, making it a lar ge exporter of gren electricity to the EU. I think that Eurostat must be including rooftop solar, estimating self-consumption, but I can’t be sure. Any adjustments for these factors won’t affect the macro picture.
The last three remaining nuclear power plants in Germany were taken offline in April 2023. The fuss over the timing of the phaseout was a German not a European issue, and with that out of the way, the legacy plants everywhere else will just age gracefully and uncontentiously towards their scheduled shutdowns over the coming decade.
Why does WordPress allow bold tags but not strikeout ones? (Rhetorical question, don’t bother responding)
Euro Electrics – which should be a sports team name – huzzzaaahhhhhh!!
As for us here in the US, we need prayers more than ever. Please consider contributing during your next session, you-all. As applicable, etc. I know we don’t rank as high as some other places and that’s fine. Whatever you can spare.
I have been on a self-imposed ban from this site and social media in general. However, I am wondering what people think and feel about major current events issues. I refer to Covid-19, Climate Change and Trump / US Supreme Court.
Ikonoclast.
Iko: Indeed, a lot has being going on: SCOTUS monarchism, French and British elections, Biden’s frailty. I confess I’m a little surprised that our host has not weighed in on some of them. I have a couple of comments ready to roll on the next Monday Message Board.
On climate, a bit of good news: Chinese coal production in the first 5 months of 2024 fell by 54 million tonnes (-3%) compared with a year earlier, only partly offset by a 23 mt increase in imports. China dials down coal output to focus on structural reform | Reuters It wasn’t due to a slowdown in electricity demand, but to large volumes of wind and solar coming on line, and good Spring rains filling the many new hydro dams. It’s too early to say that Chinese emissions from coal have peaked, but it’s quite possible. Two structural changes support this take. One, the government plans a scheme to pay non-producing mines in working order as a strategic capacity reserve. Two, production is increasingly concentrated in four inland provinces, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, together accounting for 82% of production. This narrowing geographical base presumably weakens the industry’s lobbying power, to which we could add that nobody in Beijing cares what China’s colonial subjects in Xinjiang think.
James W.,
The blogosphere as a place where intelligent discuss and important ideas is all but dead. Almost the entire internet (except perhaps for some some academic and professional niches) has become a morass or marketing, monetising, attention seeking / power grabbing and consequently of close to wall-to-wall misinformation, disinformation and hate-mongering.
We are at a very dangerous pass. Climate Change, Neoliberal Capitalism, Trumpist Fascism, the rule of ignorance over knowledge and the nascent “Pandemicene” all vie with each other to be the phenomenon which destroys us. It is not either/or of course. They are complexly linked.
It has become useless for the intelligent layperson to even attempt to write or utter one sentence which demonstrates scientific literacy, logic or any morality higher than the than the narrow self-interest line. At the same time, the citizen is required to show complete obeisance to autocratic authority. Soon it will become downright dangerous to utter anything critical of power. No wonder people are going silent and retreating in various ways. Not saying J.Q. is doing this but I certainly have been.
Above I meant to start with…”The blogosphere as a place where intelligent people discuss important ideas is all but dead.”
I was surprised by Ian Dunt’s observation, that the 2 things that gave the Tories conniptions were Liz Truss and Partygate. I would have thought that Brexit and austerity would have been preeminent.
The UK voter turnout was ~54%, which is dreadful. Do they not care or are they just plain over it?
Time for my UK predictions.
Let it be said first that the Starmer / Labor Party victory is slightly better than the alternative. However, I predict Starma and Labor will completely fail to address the UK’s core problems. On the fiscal side;
“Labour’s big tax pledge ahead of the manifesto launch was that none of the ‘big three’ would be increased in the next parliament: that means VAT, National Insurance and income tax.” – Craig Munro, Metro.
This means there will be no new taxing and spending of anywhere near sufficient scale to significantly reverse the damage of 14 years of Tory austerity and previous Labor austerity, by whatever name, before that. This is unless they are going to (electronically) print a whole lot of new money. But their fiscal policy states;
“Our fiscal rules are non-negotiable and will apply to every decision taken by a Labour government. This means that the current budget must move into balance, so that day-to-day costs are met by revenues and debt must be falling as a share of the economy by the fifth year of the forecast.” – Labor’s Fiscal Plan, Labor UK.
To summarise, no increase to the big three taxes and no deficit. The budget must move to balance and debt must be falling as a share of the economy by fifth year of forecast.
New revenue (supposedly) will come from;
(a) Closing further non-dom tax loopholes and investment in reducing tax avoidance;
(b) applying VAT and business rates to private schools;
(c) closing carried interest tax loophole; and
(d) increasing stamp duty on purchases of residential property by non-UK residents by 1%.
These are projected to raise revenue, eventually in 2028-29, to £M 7,350 or £M 7.35 billion. This compares to a 2028-29 budget revenue and spend which should conservatively be £M 1 trillion each, allowing for inflation and a balanced budget which they are targeting. This is a 0.735% increase in the spend if I have my math right. It will be more than swallowed up by the multiple pandemics which the UK is already enduring. It’s like proposing to empty Lake Windermere with a bucket.
I’ll come back later with a multi-pandemic update for the UK. The UK already faces increasing poverty and a grinding collapse for much of the population. That too can be covered in a further post. These are statements for predictive purposes only. I don’t hope to influence anyone or change anything. Those boats have all sailed: for me and for everyone else.
Corrections for a messed up sentence above.
“These are projected to raise revenue, eventually in 2028-29, by £M 7,350 or £B 7.35.”
Rhetorical wish: I wish we could correct our original post at least within 24 hours.
The low voter turnout in the UK election would seem to indicate a dispirited electorate. Poor economic prospects and rising costs, arising from Brexit and austerity measures, are the most likely sources of this existential defeatism. The influence of Cambridge Analytica on both Brexit and MAGA has been well documented, this is a psychological war on the west.
“This is a psychological war on the west.” Yes, but it comes from within. It arises endogenously, as the psychologists and economists would say. It comes out of our own systems of wide disparities in wealth and privilege feeding back to continually widen that gap. It is class war but not as a simple as a war of just two classes.
The central dogma of modern market fundamentalism or neoliberalism dominates. The dogma is that markets and markets only should be the organizing principle of our society and governments should get out of the way. That it IS dogma can be seen when we note that the main job of government, as prescribed by the fronts for big conglomerations of private capital, is to help big conglomerations of private capital get bigger.
As I illustrated in my post above, UK Labor’s policy is pure neoliberalism with 0.735% frills. It’s not going to change a thing.
Returning to the psychological war, it is the Western corporations, Western advertising, Western Big Data and Western think tanks which wage this psychological war.
It’s intriguing as to why voter turnout, in some jurisdictions, has experienced large variations.