I spend a lot of time these days thinking about what I, and Australia as a nation, should do if the US ceases to be a democracy. But, it doesn’t seem as if lots of other people are thinking this way. One possibility is that people just don’t want to think about it. Another, though, is that I’ve overestimated the probability of this outcome.
To check on this, I set up a flowchart using a free online program called drawio. Here;s what I came up with
I hope it’s self-explanatory. The bold numbers next to the boxes are the probability of reaching that box. The numbers next to arrows coming out of decision nodes (diamonds) are the probability of that decision.
I also apologize in advance if there are any arithmetic errors – my degree in pure mathematics doesn’t insulate me against them.
If the US were remotely normal, every entry on the left-hand edge ought to be equal to 1. Harris should be a sure winner, Trump shouldn’t find any supporters for a coup, the MAGA Republicans in Congress should be unelectable and the moderate program proposed by Harris should be successful enough that Trumpism would be defeated forever.
But that’s not the case. There are two end points in which US democracy survives, with a total probability (excessively precise) of 0.46, and one where it ends, with a probability of 0.54. By replacing my probabilities at the decision nodes with your own, you can come up with your own numbers. Or you may feel that I’ve missed crucial pathways. I’d be interested in comments on either line.
Note: Any Thälmann-style comments (such as “After Trump, us” or “Dems are social fascists anyway”) will be blocked and deleted.
John Quiggin 
I’m always interested in what these kinds of charts leave out. One of the many outcomes possible from this point is that a Trump ‘victory’ will rapidly cease to be about Trump. Behind him are a relatively new group of strategists – now known as the tech oligarchs. Musk, Vance, Theil, Bazos and no doubt others less visible to the determined news scroller. Do they seriously “support’ Trump? Of course not. He is their front man – a means of getting an election victory that will enable them to take over the reigns of government. He’s old, confused, not very smart on most matters, and grossly incompetent when it comes to running anything, let alone a government. They’re counting on him crumbling pretty soon as after taking office, and it won’t be hard to find entirely natural means to help that to happen. President Vance slides into office without missing a beat, but heavily beholden to Theil, Musk et al. So what’s their agenda? Project 2025 has a version of it. Theil has plenty of talks and interviews out there that provide signposts. Collectively they are probably a lot more capable and savvy than Bannon, who kind of tried to do this first time around. And Trump is that much more unstable mentally than he was in 2016.
I think “the end of US democracy” needs some elaboration. According to the Economist Democracy Index, the USA is already a flawed democracy, rather than a full democracy (such as Australia, UK, Canada, most of Western Europe, New Zealand, Japan, and a few other countries).
Would a Trump win cement further gerrymandering, one-sided stacking of the judiciary, jobs for loyalists, and lead to some slide down the Economist index? Probably. And yes, we would almost certainly worry greatly about that.
Would there be a wholesale breaking of the constitution, and the rise of a fascist state, perhaps with a third term or even life presidency for Trump? I am no student of US politics, but I don’t see that the US is at a crisis point where it is likely to snap into a dictatorship.
So, whether I agree with your assessment that an end to US democracy is slightly more likely than not depends on what you actually mean by an end to democracy.
I too wish we were normal!! And I do apologize for my country that we are so far away from that. It hurts.
I can’t really get past the Electoral College issue. I think the popular perception of that result is going to determine a great deal – and, unfortunately, we have two popular perceptions here. (Though, on the third hand, I wonder also if some people don’t lie to pollsters. I have a few Reep friends, I could ask them about this. But I haven’t, yet.)
If the Dems get convincing wins, even just to convince the moderate, undecided-type of people, then I think we will be okay. I think many people are afraid of civil disorder – I do not think many people actually desire it.
So theoretically, you could do another chart branch just for the EC issue. If it’s very very close, as polls are suggesting? Weeks, maybe months of litigation. I suppose though, really, it would get up to the Supreme Court very quickly. I have no idea what they’d do, and the facts would be determinative (sort of!?). (I am not one who thinks they are just bent.)
I do wish we were more aware of how lucky we are, and how stupid it would be to throw our system away.
N, Can you imagine a scenario where Trump won the popular vote but lost the College? How far can “civil disorder” go ?
There are some scary nuances hidden between the connections too: like if Trump won the popular vote, but lost the College. I fear those arrows point to a very ugly outcome.
And they don’t make a Smedley Butler any more.
Anon, I think that’s unlikely but I suppose it is possible that he could lose that way.
He couldn’t really complain, as it’s how he won in 2016. However, his ideas of what is possible are different from mine. “Civil disorder” can go as far as it’s allowed. I don’t personally think our LEOs are that squishy. (And, I’ll be thankful not to find out.)
It’s unfortunately a bit of a nailbiter.
As a character test for conservatives though, it’s pretty effing fascinating. (Not that I’d have chosen this, just for fun.) How will they choose to behave?
Oh, also – I will never forget the Silicon Valley people supporting him. Never.
He’s probably mentally ill (or a Russian asset, or both).
There is no excuse on this Earth for their behavior.
John
An additional factor to consider in the medium term will be Trump’s health.
· Age
o Is 78 years old which is a lot older than most dictators.
· Heart Disease
o Obese
o Diet high in fat and sugar
· Dementia
o Forgetful and confused
o Family history of dementia
o Obesity a risk factor for dementia, too
· Assassination
o Two previous assassination attempts
o High gun ownership in US
o Social chaos if he deports millions of undocumented immigrants.
I do not think it is certain or even likely (?) that Trump will live out a 4-year term if returned to the White House.
Chaos ahead.
Regards David
It seems fairly obvious that the Democrats have lost the conversation. It’s not that the media is biased it’s just that the Dems aren’t newsworthy. People want a circus and Trump is the ringmaster, the ultimate showman, he can work the crowd.
Trump is media gold.
However it remains to be seen if sufficient voters will be turned off by his spiel.
Democrats will have to find a way to make better contact with the deplorables
Oh dear, it looks like Trump will control all houses plus the SC.
This can only be down to identity politics.
Nows a good time to put your money when your mouth is.
I am up for a bet that if Trump-MAGA loses the 2028 election, they transfer power peacefully according to protocol.
How much are you willing to put up.
Its got to be in the hundreds dollars to make it worth while.
A ompelling reason for Trumps victory is the viseral reaction non-W.I.E.R.D. people have to media-academia calling a common-or-garden type populist “literally Hitler”. Especially when those same types give a free pass to Deep State interference in elections, Tech Giant suppresion of free speechm& Pentagon waging proxy wars etc. It feels like projection.
The crooked clintonite DNC knifed Bernie… twice! Imagine Bernie coming to the end of a second term and someone being elected yesterday who he’d supported and mentored. Killary and Carmela never had a chance. It’s karma, and it aint finished.
The Alternative Labour Party, if not the Canadian Libs, are set to be next to fall the same way as the US Democrats on the same issues, the two things most profitable to the elites both domestic and foreign and most harmful to the resident lower classes: the horrendous cost of living, and the consequences of crushing ponzi immigration. There is only one war.
Gb3Sf7kXMAAj8tP (561×504)
10 more charts at Financial Times by Tej Parikh yesterday:
This was an election on the US economy. And for many Americans, the economy sucks
<blockquote>Frankly, none of this is new. Political fealty, culture wars, and disinformation may all play a part. But, for all those still unconvinced that people’s lived experience of the economy mattered as much as the exit polls and voxpops suggest, here are ten charts we’ve been monitoring all year.</blockquote>
Trump is just a big bag of hot air (and he has <660 days before the midterms)
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-09/trump-cant-stop-climate-progress/104572296
Now that the votes are in it appears that Trump’s votes remain relatively static whereas the Democrats lost millions – apathy and indifference played a major role.
Turnout was much like the Brexit vote with a significant proportion (38%) abstaining.
It’s hard to find an example of a fully functional democracy; the UK evolved the Westminster system but they still have the Royals collecting rent from crown land. The US votes on just about everything but that is open to attack and manipulation, the GOP has spent many millions on ratf*cking and it has prevailed. Voter ID, redlining etc etc, any trick to frustrate the equal opportunity to vote.
It seems that now US voters have voted for the chief ratf*cker.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/01/25/roger-stone-and-rating-a-short-history-224218/
From the meagre amount I know about various democracies around the world, It seems that Switzerland has a pretty good model.
Their parliament is less adversarial and more sensible and collaborative.
And the system is more genuinely participatory due to citizen initiated referenda, which are effective and quite frequent.
Also, Swiss people I know have told me that if the media there carried on like ours, they would be laughed out of the country.