Those who enjoy the “Private Eye” style of diary may find some amusement in the blogging debuts of John Howard: P.M. and Simon Crean MP.

As well as satirical fun, ‘Simon’ raises a serious point that has also struck me. Despite lots of discussion about how Howard is bestriding the political scene like a colossus and Crean is failing to make an impact, most recent opinion polls suggests Labor would win an election held today. Labor is trailing on primary votes, but with the decline of One Nation and the Democrats, most of the third-party votes have gone to the Greens, whose preferences generally favor Labor very strongly. Of course, opinion polls aren’t election results, but the Federal scene contrasts sharply with the states, where incumbent Labor governments enjoy massive leads in the polls.

As Shaun Carney points out, the bursting of the housing bubble is likely to change everything. The Howard government has relied critically on low interest rates and affordable home ownership as a source of contrast with its Labor predecessors, and the housing boom can’t have hurt either Carr or Bracks. If the collapse is as bad as I expect, Howard will be in deep trouble. The impact on the Victorian and NSW governments, both closer to an election than Howard, is harder to predict, especially as the consequences of a housing downturn will take time to work themselves out.