A bit more on Turkey’s E.U. Future from Javier Solano. In effect, he’s laying down the conditions:
(a) A new package of democratic reforms
(b) Acceptance of the UN Cyprus settlement plan
If Turkey delivers on these, it’s hard to see how the EU can avoid opening negotiations. Giscard’s appeal to religious bias has clearly backfired, by narrowing the space for ambiguous evasions.

UpdateA long and well thought-out update on this from Nathan Lott. It appears at this stage, the most likely outcome is a ‘date for a date’. That is, the EU will commit to re-examine Turkey’s case in 2004, and if democratic reforms have been made, to start talks in 2005. This kind of compromise won’t please anyone, but the Turks may as well get used to it, since it’s the way Europe works. For that matter, it’s the way democracy works.