Until now, North Korea has appeared in the blogosphere mainly as a debating point. Right-wingers have used the North Korean government’s breach of its agreement not to develop nuclear weapons as a club with which to beat Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton who made the deal with Kim-Jong Il. Opponents of war with Iraq (including me) have pointed to the differential treatment accorded to this highly unattractive member of the “Axis of Evil’ as evidence that the US Administration either lacked a coherent policy or was not being honest about its motives.

The news that the North Korean government plans to reactivate graphite-moderated reactors previously used in their nuclear weapons program suggests that the time for pointscoring is over. The much-derided print media particularly the NYT have already realised this.

Unfortunately, there are no appealing options in this case. It seems clear that the co-operation, or at least acquiescence of the Chinese government is going to be needed, and that any military option raises a severe risk of an attack on South Korea and perhaps Japan. The most promising solution is one where China applies the pressure required to force the abandonment of North Korea’s nuclear program and its missile development. The amount of pressure required will be large, and the diplomatic price correspondingly high. Unlike Saddam, Kim Jong-Il cannot be regarded as a rational bargaining partner – he and his father have pursued policies that have driven their kingdom into the ground, and, while it’s impossible to tell anything about such a closed society, it’s hard to believe he has a secure hold on power.

China could probably bring the regime down by opening its border. Even with tight controls on both sides there’s a steady flow of refugees with as many as 300 000 now hiding out in China), but this would be a hugely costly and problematic step. South Korea would have to accept most of the refugees and they would be highly reluctant to do this.

I find the prospect of a deal with the Chinese Communist Party even more worrying than than the deal with Musharraf that was needed to secure Pakistan’s overthrow the Taliban, or the various trade-offs that will be required in any Middle East deal. The partners in those deals are tinpot dictatorships that can safely be dumped when they are no longer needed. By contrast, China represents the only dictatorship left among the great powers (or even the second-rank powers) and its rulers have demonstrated a surprising capacity to handle succession problems. The Chinese government is the most important single enemy of democracy in the world today.

But there may be no alternative to a deal. Some juicy carrots will have to be offered, but if Bush has the moral clarity he claims to have he shouldn’t be afraid to show the stick as well. If the Chinese government is prepared to give aid and comfort to the Dear Leader Kim Jong-Il and his insane plans, they should be given the cold shoulder in every respect, starting with Most Favored Nation treaties.

Having taken this hard line, I have to say that, even more than with respect to Iraq, this is an issue where discretion is the better part of valour for Australia. We’re not as vulnerable as South Korea and Japan, but we are still mice in the cornfield when it comes to hard words between elephants like the US and China.

Whereas I’m still relatively optimistic about some sort of reasonable outcome in relation to Iraq and even Al-Qaeda, this business fills me with foreboding.