As I predicted, Saddam has accepted Blix’s demands accepting U-2 flights, allowing private interviews with scientists, handing over at least some documents and promising legislation banning weapons of mass destruction (for what that’s worth). This will probably ensure a positive report from Blix on Friday. One important point about this is that it is evidence that Saddam is rational, therefore deterrrable. A refusal to back down on points like this would have been suicidal on his part.

On the other hand, my predictive powers fail me in working out what’s going to happen after that. The US has predictably dismissed the concessions, but the points at issue were referred to in very strong terms in Powell’s speech. With the exposure of the bogus Blair dossier (cited very favourably by Powell) and the apparent refutation of claims about a chemical weapons plant operated by Al Ansar in northern Iraq, the US case for war has weakened substantially in the past four or five days. It seems unlikely that the UNSC will pass the kind of second resolution the US wants, at least for the moment.

Of course, what matters is whether Blair can manage to drag the UK into a war. He seems to have a solid Cabinet (but you can never tell, of course) and he’s trying hard to avoid a Parliamentary vote which would certainly produce large-scale defections.