Scepticism about the capital market (as opposed to social) value of Google, led by econobloggers, and followed, much later by the financial press, seems to have had some impact.
Google said the new estimated share price range was $US85 to $US95 ($119 to $133), down from $USUS108 to $USUS135 previously. It also sliced the number of shares on offer to 19.6 million from 25.7 million.
The maximum the internet giant can now rake in, excluding over-allotments, is $US1.86 billion, a stunning climbdown from initial expectations of $US3.47 billion.
The new maximum price values the entire company at $US25.7 billion, down from $US36.6 billion.
Thanks to FX Holden for the alert.
A couple of points to bear in mind – first, Google refused to use the usual IPO structure that lets merchant banks screw retail investors. There have been suggestions that merchant banks decided to punish the IPO in retaliation. The spate of negative publicity on the Google IPO seems to date from the time when Google put some noses out of joint.
Secondly, the dot com boom is generally misunderstood. Most dot com companies were not technology companies at all, but empty creations of MBA’s, graphics arts people and accountants. That’s why they were mostly useless.
By comparison, Google is a first class technology company with fantastic technology, researchers and, I think, prospects.
I for one will be pleased when it’s over so that Google can stop inserting the daily progress of the IPO into Google News.
Its interesting that today (20th August) in their market debut Goggle shares rose to $104-00 from $85-00. (I think they were overpriced at $85 so not criticising the argument that Goggle has high social though much lower private value).
So those who bought at $85 got about 25% ‘stag profits’ (not really the right term) even though there were no insiders. This seems to contradict the idea behind the intended allocation procedure. Presumably those who got the initial allocations here didn’t have monopsony power. Is the market on another emotional roller coaster?
I think the results bear out that Google is a solid stock based on first class IP, and that it had probably been artificially pushed down before launch by the miffed Useless Ones (merchant wankers.)
I know their PE ratio is well over 100 thus I am confused.
This means the investor is betting that Google will deliver some very strong earnings in the next few years.
How?
Esther Dyson, a respected tech industry commentator, comments in CNet: “But a lot of what they’re saying, at least in the press, is colored by the people the press is quoting–mostly Wall Street analysts and bankers. Of course, those analysts want to paint the whole initial public offering as a dismal failure, because its Dutch auction process flouted the rules of Wall Street and its gatekeepers. And of course, would-be institutional investors, also quoted, successfully drove the price down from its originally projected–and too high–level.”
Here is the Esther Dyson link.