The results for Dixville Notch are in !. Bush 19, Kerry 7. In 2000, Bush got 21 to Gore’s 5. There was a similar swing in Hart’s Location. Repeated nationwide, this swing would give Kerry a thumping victory[1].
fn1. As bases for spurious predictions go, I’d rank this one somewhere between the Washington Redskins home games and Ray Fair’s econometric model.
John Quiggin 
Time to start selling Bush down at tradesports.
I have been preparing a long flip-flop blog reversing my original Bush prediction since the week-end, mainly based on strong turn-out reports from the pre-election voting stations.
I decided that I would rather risk losing a bet on Kerry even if it meant giving up the chance of vindicating my beloved perfect markets theories.
The risk of shame from losing a bet placed on Bush, banking on material rather than moral factors, is too painful to contemplate.
One of the US media outlets is listing Howard and Berlusconi as the only two national leaders prepared to publically express support for Bush’s re-election….even Parson Blair has not preached a pro-=Bush sermon,and as of Monday we KNOW what Cherie Blair thinks of Dubya !!and so we must wait to see how correct Malcolm MacKerras’s prediction of an easy Kerry win with a margin of about 80 electoral votes turns out to be.
I have forsworn looking at the news until tomorrow, but FWIW, here is the final version of my Italian-style horse-change. Apologies for the self-plug.