Kerry is definitely doing worse than the exit polls suggested. However, it’s very hard to tell what’s going on with partial counts. None of the US networks appear to do the kind of matched-precinct counts that are standard in Australia, so the results may reflect the fact that rural and suburban votes are counted faster. In addition, there were large numbers of prepoll votes and the very limited evidence that came out suggested they were heavily Democratic. It appears these votes are counted after all the others, but no-one seems to be quite clear about this.
Of course, it’s a tight race but it appears that the networks have been burned by their experience in 2000 and are unwilling to take the chance of making a premature call. So we may be waiting a while. This is not good for me, as I have to write a column about the economic challenges facing the winner (they are huge!)
Update 2:30Well, I’ve written the “Bush wins” version. Unless something startling happens with the prepoll votes, Bush is safe in Florida. That means, if I’ve worked out the rules correctly, that Kerry has to come from behind in both Ohio and Wisconsin to win. Not impossible, but a long shot at this stage.
Further update 2:52 Kerry is now leading in Wisconsin. If he wins in Ohio (still against the odds), it will be on absentee and pre-poll ballots, which implies a gigantic legal bunfight for the second time running.
Yet further update 4:05 Most pundits are calling Ohio for Bush, though his lead has narrowed in the last half hour. Just in case, I’ve written my “Kerry wins” piece, which is very pessimistic about the prospects for a Kerry Administration (see post above this one).
Final update 5:36 Premature calls. Now I’m working on the “cliffhanger” version. Even with Ohio, where Kerry hasn’t conceded, Bush is still one vote short according to MSNBC. I assume he’ll win at least one of New Mexico and Nevada, which will bring it all back to Ohio. I still can’t see Kerry winning, but I wouldn’t concede either in his position.
John Quiggin 
Presumably whoever wins will face identical economic circumstances. Write the column and drop the winner’s name in afterwards.
Of course, I’ve done all the obvious bits. But I can’t very well write “Bush must repeal the Bush tax cuts”. Unless we get something more definitive soon, I’ll have to do one of those multiple-ending things they have on soaps.
Hmm, its looking like (with a little constitutional change) Arnie V Hillary in 2008
90,000 Florida absentee ballots won’t be counted until Thursday – you might be waiting until then!
If only it made any difference who gets to sit in the big chair. What if all the money spent on the campaign was put into something useful!
I think it does make a difference to us who sits in the “big chair.” IMO John Winston got a whole lot more conservative when Bush got in.
For real examples see Kyoto and gay marriage.
On Kyoto, Aus Govt noises were ambiguous at best, probably slightly positive before Dubya rejected ratification. After Dubya’s decision our Govt was suddenly very anti Kyoto.
Dubya starts talking about constitutional amendments against gay marrige and all of a sudden John Winston decides Aus needs legislation banning it.
I believe there’d be many more similar examples if someone were to flesh out the argument. (Iraq and preemptive attacks being obvious starting points)
In some cases perhaps JWH was following GWB, in others I think he was emboldened by Dubya’s example.
CNN is calling Florida for Bush.
It definitely matters who is US President.
Nailbiting stuff- like watching Darth and Obe Wan fighting to the death, with a sense that evil is about to sizzle the guts out of the good guy.
the economics for me is looking quite good.
i have 103.72 AUD on bush at 1.78 which is looking very safe…
i could cover my bet for $3 at betfair…but as my friend don says, real men let their bets ride…
Are matched-county counts a close relative? (These seemed more prominent on CBS than on NBC, given Aus coverage)
And do their heavier reliance on exit polls compensate?
actually hes not one vote short.
bush wins in a dead heat because the republicans will carry the house.
thus msnbc gives it to bush. cnn thinks its still too close to call.
yeah… c8to’s right about 269 being enough for Bush (but not Kerry) because the house decides. But his quoting of Don letting bets ride is bullshit! 🙂
it’s Bush?
Even with a big turn out that was meant to favour the Democrats, the election looks to be flowing the