Month: March 2005

Lebanon

John Quiggin4 Comments

Last week there was a lot of triumphalism from parts of the blogosphere regarding anti-Syrian protests in Lebanon, which was cut rather embarrassingly short when the pro-Syrian PM was re-installed following a huge pro-Syrian demonstration. I thought that the likely cause of these developments was internal to Lebanon rather than the inspirational example of GW Bush, though I was too ignorant of recent Lebanese politics too say much more. As usual, many others did not feel constrained by ignorance from drawing firm conclusions.

For those who’d like to inform themselves, The Head Heeb has a lengthy series giving some of the background. One important point is that the withdrawal of Israeli occupation forces from South Lebanon back in 2000 set in motion many of the forces that are operating today and, in particular, undermined the legitimacy of the Syrian occupation and the maintenance of a militia by Hezbollah.

What I’m reading

John Quiggin3 Comments

“The Coming Generational Storm : What You Need to Know about America’s Economic Future” (Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Scott Burns). As I was reading this book, laden with predictions of doom, I was thinking, “if people call Krugman shrill, they should read these guys”. By coincidence, Jack Strocchi sent me this review of Kotlikoff and Burns, by Krugman. I broadly agree with Krugman’s assessment, so I’ll just lift out a quote that appealed to me:

In March 199, Time included Laffer in its cover story on ‘The Century’s Greates Minds’ and called the Laffer curve one of ‘a few of the advances that powered this extraordinary century’. Just think about it. When it comes to physics, you need to be Albert Einstein to be classified as one of the century’s greatest minds. But when it comes to economics, all you have to do is draw a completely obvious picture on a napkin

I was also struck by this smackdown of a study predicting a huge wealth transfer to baby boomers from their parents

A close look at the Avery-Rendall study shows it to be a hoax. The only question is whether the authors were fooling themselves as well as their readers.

Ouch!

The non-global public intellectual

John Quiggin7 Comments

The SMH has come with a list of Australia’s top 100 public intellectuals, of whom the top 10 are (with votes from a panel of 100[1])

Robert Manne – political scientist 39
Peter Singer – philosopher 33
Germaine – Greer feminist 29
Tim Flannery – scientist 25
Noel Pearson – Aboriginal advocate 24
Inga Clendinnen – historian 23
Geoffrey Blainey – historian 22
Helen Garner – writer 21
Donald Horne civil – society 19
Michael Kirby – judge 19

Andrew Norton has some discussion of the list, and the comments are also interesting. I just thought I’d repeat an observation I made in relation to Posner’s book on the subject. Of the top 10, only Singer and Greer (both expats) would have any significant recognition outside Australia.

This isn’t because our intellectuals can’t cut it on the world stage but because, in this respect, there is no world stage. As I observed at the time, Posner’s top 10 US public intellectuals are marginal figures as far as most Australians are concerned (unless they are famous for other reasons). The Prospect list for the UK (not easily available as far as I can tell, and I’ve misplaced my password) had more recognisable names (including our Germs at #2), but few who would fit naturally into a ‘public intellectual’ category. Each country, it seems wants to hear its own policy problems discussed in its own accent.

fn1. I was included in the panel, and also among the also-rans in the list of 100. I voted for three people who made it into the top 10 (Manne, Kirby and Garner) and Raymond Gaita who was ranked #11, as well as a couple of fellow-economists.

Request for help

John Quiggin16 Comments

Although I read quite a bit, one thing I always have difficulty with is suggesting good readings on topics, or knowing who originally proposed some idea. I think this has something to do with the fact that I tend to flit from one topic to another, picking up ideas but rarely doing a proper review of the literature. In any case, I’ve been asked to suggest some readings and so I thought I’d pass this request on to any readers who can help me[1]. What I’d like is either an original/early source for various concepts or a more recent summary discussion, ideally one accessible to an intelligent general reader. Anyone with useful suggestions gets an acknowledgement in my forthcoming Oxford Handbook chapter which is, literally, priceless.

Here’s my list of terms

* Crowding out
* Twin deficits hypothesis
* Shadow price
* Golden rule (for budgeting in UK and elsewhere)
* Globalisation
* Crony capitalism

Thanks in advance for any help

fn1. There is a piece of blog jargon for what I’m doing here, but I refuse to even mention it. It’s bad enough that we’re lumbered with “blog”.

The US trade deficit makes the front page

John Quiggin13 Comments

In my first-ever blog post (apart from a Hello World! announcement), I commented on the fact that, whereas trade and current account deficits were big news in Australia, US papers buried them in the back pages. At least in the online edition of the New York Times, this is no longer the case. The latest US Trade deficit ($58.3 billion in January) is front-page news.

Despite this catch-up, it’s still true that anyone wanting coverage of economic issues in the US would do far better to read blogs than to follow either the NY Times or the WSJ, and no other mainstream media even come close. It isn’t even true, as it is in other cases, that bloggers need the established media to get the facts on which they can then comment. The NY Times story linked above is basically a rewrite of the Bureau of Economic Analysis press release which you can get by automatic email if you want.

The competition is much tougher in Australia. Media coverage of economic issues is better, the number of economist-bloggers is smaller and quite a few of us play both sides of the street anyway.

Weekend reflections

John Quiggin55 Comments

This (somewhat irregular)) regular feature is back. The idea is that, over the weekend, you should post your thoughts in a more leisurely fashion than in ordinary comments or the Monday Message Board.

Please post your thoughts on any topic, at whatever length seems appropriate to you. Civilised discussion and no coarse language, please.

All bloggers are liars?

John Quiggin9 Comments

Slate runs a good debunking of romantic popular misinterpetations of Godel’s theorem. Key quote

The precise mathematical formulation that is Gödel’s theorem doesn’t really say “there are true things which cannot be proved” any more than Einstein’s theory means “everything is relative, dude, it just depends on your point of view.”

I’ve lost count of the number of times I’ve seen dubious appeals to intuition or claims about chaos theory and the like supported with reference to Godel’s theorem, but I have derived the following proposition:

Quiggin’s metatheorem: Any interesting conclusion derived with reference to Godel’s theorem is unfounded.

Feel free to evaluate with reference to the post title.

WHEN 83% OF WORKERS WANT A UNION, SHOULD A COMPANY LISTEN?

John Quiggin13 Comments

Tenix always seems to be in the news for the wrong reasons, so I wasn’t too surprised to get this message from Eric Lee at Labourstart, with the title above. Eric writes

That’s the question posed by a strike which recently broke out at a Melbourne, Australia-based company called Tenix. After six years of individual contracts and no union, six years which delivered only tiny wage increases, a court-ordered ballot showed that 83% of Tenix workers had decided they wanted union representation. The employer’s reaction was to try to force workers to sign individual contracts — and to refuse to recognize the union. The workers reacted by going out on strike.

We’ve been asked by the Australian Services Union to send a strong message to the management of Tenix, saying that when 83% of your workers tell you they want a union, you really should respect that choice. Please support the campaign by clicking on this link

And spread the word!

Worth watching

John Quiggin3 Comments

It’s too early to call an end to the great low-interest bond bubble. But interest rates on US 10-year Treasury notes have risen sharply in the leadup to a forthcoming Treasury auction. It’s hard to see how the US can restore balance on the trade account (as it must) without a significant increase in interest rates as well as a depreciation. And if US rates rise, there’s likely to be a flow on from Australia.

However, the Asian central banks that have been keeping both us and the Americans afloat still have plenty of buying power, and this could easily turn out to be another false alarm.