There seems to be a significant chance that the election will produce a Labor government depending on Green votes in the Reps to provide a lead over the Coalition, and in the Senate to pass legislation. I find it hard to believe that the process we’ve just been through could produce such an outcome, not only matching my preferences but reflecting those expressed by the majority of voters, but that’s what some of the papers are saying is likely. We’ll just have to wait and see.
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John Quiggin 
@Andrew
good point on the factional nature of the greens.
The editorial in the australian today pointed out that the australian democracts and hanson were as equally succesful as the greens have been recently. where are they now?
Andrew, since 2007 the ALP made too many mistakes but no more than the N-LP. As for the Greens I am pleased to see they did well for it proves the ALP need to go back to the drawing board and rethink some of their policies such as giving out free permits to the worst polluters in this country. And contrary to some commentators I can only see better times ahead if Labor & the Greens can accomodate each other.
Yes
All this talk of hung parliament is just journalistic beatup and confusion.
The three independents will obviously crawl back up their umbilical cord and join with their parent.
The Senate is a saving grace.
Chris Warren, my nose tells me Bob Katter might get the speakers job. Now that would send a shiver down the spines of the L-NP.
@Alice
Alice at 3
the mist recent figures i’ve seen is that we export about $23.5 billion worth of food and import about $8.5 billion
@Guido
There were bigger swings to the ALP and Greens in Tasmania, and South Australia than Victoria, so that’s just silly. Rightwing ideologue Paul Sheehan obviously doesn’t bother letting facts get in the way of a good story, even allowing his silly claims about which states are productive.
@Peter Whiteford
“Fruit and veg” specifically Peter – so Bob Katter is wrong is what you are saying? I dont think food means just “fruit and veg” does it?
@Michael of Summer Hill
So it damn well should send a shiver down the spine of L/NP. Id like to know what L/NP has been doing for country people as well? I know what L/NP has been doing for the disadvantaged in cities as well – which is bugger all.
The L/NP seems to me a party of spoilt brat urban dwellers.
From July next year the Senate is Green folkd – its Green. If the Katters of this world dont have the guts to bypass the party that screwed them (L/NP) and forget the other fools in the National party that still have their umbilical cords attached to L/NP while all around them is falling in a heap (like that fool Barnaby Joyce) –
Well what can you do? But seriously – does Fed Labor have anything different to offer these independents than the party that screwed them into the ground?
No. They are still pursuing economic rationalist privatisation agendas. The people in the cities dont like it (they are voting green) and the people in the country dont like it (they are voting independent).
This is so weird – having two governments not doing what the people want. There is nowhere to go.
@Peter Whiteford
Also Peter do you have any figures for that to compare to five years ago? Ten years ago? Fifteen years ago?? In real dollars?
What use are this years static figures? We need comparison over time.
@Alice
the greens have a flaw in their slogans.
saying that the two parties are the same means that the libs and labour will routinely find common ground and not need to go the the greens as the so called balance of power.
no idea on where statistics would be on how often labour and the libs voted together in the senate under rudd and under howard on issues where differences of their opinion mattered or after deals were made
the greens will be arbiters of disputes between the major parties.
if the two majors are all the same, there will be few of these disputes. after all, the greens never gild the lilly to win votes?
A quick look at ABARE statistics suggests that we export about twice as much fresh fruit and vegetables as we import – $456 million vs $239 million.
However, it is true that that we import more than twice as much “substantially transformed” fruit and vegetable products as we export – $1,233 million vs $574 million
“Substantially transformed” means dried, frozen, cut or preserved fruit and vegetables, canned or bottled fruit, ground nuts and juice.
Whether this is a threat to food security seems dubious to me, particularly given that our overall food exports are three times as large as our imports, as presumably we specialise in things like wheat and meat.
There appears to have been a decline in australian food exports since around 2002 mainly because of adverse weather conditions.
@Peter Whiteford
Still Peter – Id like to see your statistics over time. This years numbers dont say much.
Well I guess that also says a lot about our ability to value add to our produce as well doesnt it?
Adverse weather conditions? For 8 years? Hmmm.
How about since all the agri de-reg started Peter? How about comparing 1990 to now?
Wheat and meat – guess we can all survive on hamburgers then if things go awry in food production.
Alice, I have a lot in common with country folks and would like to see more done for regional Australia. I have always believed in a big Australia so it was no surprise to see Bob Katter arguing the same. And just like Katter I have little time for the neo-conservative illywackers.
@Jim Rose
should australia export an equal amount of raw wool as it imports?
@Jim Rose
JR – what really amazed me was the number of positive letters to the SMH today (letters) commenting on how refreshing it has been to bhear the “independants” speak, on how much they sound like “real politicians” or what people think “real politicians should speak like”…
Now why is this? Im a Green but Ill offer a few non green solutions.
Firearms should be permitted for the sole purpose of shooting the worm.
Polls should be shredded before being read. The media should be ignored wherever possible and should not be “courted”. Spin merchants and advertising campaigns for party leaders should be viewed in the same light as carriers of bubonic plague.
Thats why there was a pox on both majors. Nothing is real and no-one is authentic at federal level of both major parties. They are groomed and manicured puppets who have words put in their mouths by silly lesser spin merchants.
ie Fake. Pseudo. Phoney. They dont think the Australian people can spot a fake. Shame.
Ernestine had a great idea – a tax on spin. I have a better idea. Both leaders should sack their entire media agencies and support staff and get real.
@Alice
should australia export an equal amount of raw wool as it imports?
@Jim Rose
Irrelevant and out of context and woolly but Im sure you have a point you are trying to make JR…Im just not sure what it is.
@Michael of Summer Hill
Moshie – Im with you. The best contribution we can make to the global economy is the health of our own economy. Not much point sitting here measuring “we sold, we bought” in X dollars if people are being made unemployed by it and then the X of what we bought from Oseas goes down…how are we helping then. Everyone knows or should know that if we have real growth and low unemployment and good incomes the we help the global economy by importing more.
This business of impoverishing country people so as to get efficient for the “global market” is likely to come back and bite us on the bum – it is now.
Take feedlotting of cattle – only the largest firms can do it, they take the profit overseas and leave us with the pollution. Take the large milk processors – they encourage dairy farmers to overproduce milk on smaller lots and dont even guarantee to purchase the overproduction (hey but it keeps the price low for them).
This is not sustainable or efficient smaller farm production. This is deliberate engineering of surpluses by monopoly buyer pressure, and its waste and polluting to the environment and it doesnt inject much of the profits back into our economy (is its a drain).
Its not as easy as saying we exported X dollars in food and imported Y dollars in food and as long as X is greater than Y everything is fine?
There is absolutely no qualitative measures in that.
@Alice
trade is a technology for turning exports into imports. you export what is cheap and import what is expensive.
trade balances do not matter.
the trade deficit fetish are a legacy of the 1930s and the immediate post-war period when a lot of bilateral trade was through barter
Any trade deficits were settled-up in precious US dollars.
US dollar foreignh currency reserves were precious because domestic currencies were routinely misalinged to pander to domestic interest groups. No one want to be left holding rubbish domestic currencies.
@Alice
how much of the natural unemployment rate is accounted for by job layoffs from privatisations, lower tariffs, and deregulations? what is the rate for the natural unemployment rate?
if there are more imports, does not the resulting currency depreciation to rebalance the balance of trade increase exports and employment in export industries?
If consumers prices are lower becauseof greater access to cheaper imports, do not consumer incomes streach further, increasing spending in other areas, creating replacement jobs?
Has anyone laid-off as result of privatisations, lower tariffs, and deregulations ever managed to get another job in their lifetime. If so, how many?
Do positive supply shocks increase or decrease employment in Keynesian macroeconomic analysis?
Alice, there are many opportunities in regional Australia for value adding to our raw materials provided the infrastructure is in place.
@Michael of Summer Hill
Moshie – the infrastructure is in place in many places in regional Australia (it was built decades ago) but many people have left for the cities because there is no work.
Jim Rose – I knew you would find a silver lining to too much importing. No doubt if more people end up as patehic wage slaves for some large international corporation (Superstore Chain gangs?) and with not enough work…Im sure you would find a silver lining to that too.
You would of course never admit that the Coalition’s and Labor’s mad dash down de-regulation road and through the free market gates to eco rationalist nirvana, so Howard would ultimately end up flourishing his triumphant signature on Bush’s free trade agreement had anything at all to do with it, would you? Denialism lives on.
Alice, what you say is partly true but regional politics has hampered the development of the much of Australia. I will give you an example, until recently the public were buying Nescafe coffee satchets made in South Korea but now it is being manufactured in northern NSW. There is no reason why companies like Nestle could not set up business in regional areas such as Swan Hill, Bourke, Dubbo, etc given the wright incentives.
@Jim Rose
There is nothing natural about the natural rate of unemployment Jim Rose.
Any number that keeps rising over the past three to four decades as it has done is not at all “natural” IMHO. Whoever tried to convince us it was “natural” and that we should “just get used to the new higher natural rate of unemployment” seems to me to have let bad policy makers off the hook completely for bad policy.
Moshie – I dont mind encouraging large businesses to establish in country regions but care needs to be taken. Take Coca Cola for example – there are seven bottling plants in Australia, all of them owned by CC. Now they produce enough plastic bottled drinks for Australia and a host of other countries…and we end up with a huge section of our supermarket shelves holding CCs produce and little real choice.
In addition we are paying through the nose for it . I understand CC got the “landcare” stamp for planting some trees in an effort to greenwash the fact that our environment is being littered by its plastic bottles. In addition robot plants means employment rates are actually very low at these bottling plants.
Then add that together with this. Woolworths and CC are laughing all the way to the bank because of our woefully inadequate trade practices legislation and because their favouritism to each other is excluding small retailers from the game.
Click to access item.phtml
Ive noticed many times when I am overseas how ridiculously high our bottled drink prices are. But the question is not just about the price or whether we are importing more than we are exporting but whether the nature of what we are producing and how we are producing it is benefitting our economy more than it is damaging our economy.
@Alice
Alice – you correctly point out ” Its not as easy as saying we exported X dollars in food and imported Y dollars in food and as long as X is greater than Y everything is fine?
There is absolutely no qualitative measures in that.”
But at comment 3 on page 2 you said: “Billie – Katter is right. he says we are now importing more food than we are exporting. This is ridiculous.”
My point in questioning these statistics is that it works both ways – having exports exceed imports of specific items is not inherently meaningful, but having imports exceed exports is not meaningful in isolation.
Alice, regional communities can only benefit from the additional economic activity generated by businesses moving into the hinterland by value adding our raw materials. If time means money then the losses are great given the lost opportunities.
@Peter Whiteford
Ahh I see Peter – you are right – I did say that at 3. I was wondering why you came back with those stats. I should have said “some food groups” but notwithstanding we do need to consider food groups for variety and because meat and wheat will weigh heavily on the export side. I was too general at post 3 but I did specify food groups in which we are net importers further on at post at 25 on page 2 per Katters comments (links). Hence my “fruit and veg” response to you.
Nothwithstanding stats over time for food groups (in terms of X and M) would still be good to know. I can see a trawl through ABARE stats is necessary. Anyone up to it? No pay of course.
John, some good news for Labor, reports indicate several L-NP candidates elected at last weekend’s federal election may be disqualified for holding council positions.
Clever of the Libs to drive the Greens into the arms of Labor. Great strategic vision from Nick Minchin and the perfect instrument in Tony Abbott. A masterstroke!
How true Alphonse, you would think candidates are aware of the law for disqualification is automatic under the Commonwealth Constitution as ‘All public servants (both federal and state) are disqualified from standing as candidates by subsection 44(iv). Public servants must resign before filing their nomination application in order to avoid the operation of this provision. Government teachers and members of the armed forces have both been held to be ineligible for election, even where they are on leave without pay’.
Quiggin
I will keep this brief because unlike yourself I have a real job which involves the creation of wealth rather than brainwashing unsuspecting teenagers with your left wing tripe.
You should ashamed of yourself.
You should just for one second admit that The Hon Tony Abbott MP should be the next Prime Minister of Australia.
There was an overwhelming vote in his favour at this election and this fact can not be denied or questioned. He won the majority of the Primary vote and will by the start of next week have the majority of seats in the House of Reps.
The fact that you can even attempt to call this election a win for the ALP beggers belief. They sort of chugged into a position to quasi-legitimately call for a ALP minority Government somewhat like a footballer 2 years passed their expiry date limps around the field.
The community overwhelmingly voted against the Julia Rudd/Kevin Gillard government and want a change of direction and a change of policy.
Tony Abbott should no longer be an MP, he should be a PM.
Love live Conservatism
Right Wing Warrior
“Any number that keeps rising over the past three to four decades as it has done” (emphasis mine)
You really don’t care about the facts at all, do you? It’s just one unsupported assertion after another.
Here’s Australia’s unemployment rate from 1978:
@Jarrah
Go from 1970 Jarrah – everyone knows there was a structural break after the Fraser government came to power.
@Right Wing Warrior
Who is this troll? Hasnt the world had enough of right wing warriors?
Alice, you said “keeps rising”. You now need to acknowledge you were wrong, to retain any credibility in this discussion.
“Go from 1970 ”
Why not from 1900?
@Jarrah
Dont cherry pick data with me Jarrah. This is the graph you dont want people to know about
@Jarrah
Jarrah – that one was for 15 to 19 year olds which is a disgrace. This one is for all of us which you also wouldnt want people to see I bet.
“Dont cherry pick data with me Jarrah”
Alice, I’m not cherry-picking, you are. You said, plain as day, that you think unemployment in Australia has kept rising for 30 or 40 years. None of your graphs support that falsehood.
Are you going to keep digging your hole, or are you going to admit you were wrong and we can move on?
I bet Terje likes that second graph – he probably would see it as an argument for a gold standard 😉
@Jarrah
Jarrah says
“Alice, I’m not cherry-picking, you are. You said, plain as day, that you think unemployment in Australia has kept rising for 30 or 40 years. None of your graphs support that falsehood.
Not even the one at post 41 Jarrah?
@Jarrah
Where is Terje?. Hasnt been heard since the election. I think he is lying low Jarrah.
One thing I’d like to know is how is it that of the 21.1% so-called Green voters in Brisbane, at least 3.6% (minus Socialist Alliance preferences) give their preference to the climate science-denying Liberal Party ahead of the Labor Party. How can they call themselves Green voters if they prefer a climate science-denial government? They’re either idiots or hypocrites.
@Chris O’Neill
What about Wilkie Chris? – in this mess if he gave his allegiance to the Tony Abbot – one of loudest pro Iraq war advocates – then frankly all I could say is Wilkie has been here, there and everywhere…(and all over the shop – it wont do his credibility any good at all).
We still dont know where Wilkie is going and he got up on liberal preferences over a Labor candidate. Shouldnt, by the same argument the Coalition is using on the three independents being courted by both Gillard and Abbott, Wilkie respect the rest of his electorate?
@Chris O’Neill
Socialist alliance are a different party to the Greens Chris – its like saying the democrats were liberals. Dont forget – when the democrats imploded some members went to the greens, some went to labour and some went to liberal.
@Chris O’Neill
It’s very likely
a) that some who like the Greens’ social policies (gay marriage, asylum seekers etc) may prefer the Liberals’ economic policies or are tribally Liberal. There are in the US, “log cabin republicans” by way of comparison.
b) It’s possible that some who wanted to punish the ALP for its lack of vision and ruthless machine politics wanted to do so by voting tactically wanted to do so in a way that did not solidarise with business-as-usual on climate change, or the mining tax, NBN, asylum seekers etc PrQ here for example, advocated a tactical vote to the LNP over privatisation. ALP voters who were miffed figured that they had the luxury of voting for the Liberal because enough would vote for Bevis for him to get no more than a scare, as Bevis had previously held it 54.6-45.4. It turns out they were wrong.
Incidently, this would imply a leakage of Green preferences from the ALP of about 17%, whereas the national average in 2007 was 20% — so they would have overperformed that.
Not sure what the leakage is this time, but nationally, it probably would be fairly similar.