Increasing trend keeps on increasing

Unsurprisingly, 2014 was the warmest year so far in the incremental record, as measured by NOAA and NASA. A few quick observations

* It’s silly to base global judgements on local observations. Still, living through January 2015 in Queensland, it’s easy to believe that the warming trend has continued into the New Year

* There’s nothing special about a calendar year. The first part of 2014, particularly February, was cooler than the rest of the year. So, it’s a safe bet that the 12 months ending Feb 2015 will be even warmer than the 12 months ending Dec 2014

* The biggest source of short-term fluctuations is the El Nino cycle, responsible for the very warm year in 1998 that is the basis for so much silly talk about “no global warming for x years”. 2014 was the first record year without a full-scale El Nino, though it kept threatening to emerge. Predictions are mixed for 2015.

* Of course, this long-expected news had no effect on denialists. But, like anti-vaxers, they are no longer getting the kind of “balanced” hearing they have counted on for so long, at least outside the Murdoch press. It’s now generally recognised that climate science denial isn’t a scientific viewpoint but a tribal shibboleth, and this is reflected in news coverage.

104 thoughts on “Increasing trend keeps on increasing

  1. Tamino’s chart shows the trend line (based on 1970 to 1999 data), a dotted line which is a continuation of the trend line, if the trend continued up to the present time; finally, he plots the data we have since collected from 2000 to the present time, on that same chart, and we can see quite clearly it is within one SD of the projection of the 1970–1999 trend line).

    Tamino argues there is no statistical evidence that the temperature data is doing anything but following the previous trend—on trend, as they say.

  2. @chrisl

    The measured temperature for 2014 makes it the hottest year of the last 100 odd years. The uncertainty in that measurement makes it the equal hottest year of the last 100 odd years.

    Anyway, however you look at it, it is getting warmer. And really quite dramatically. About 0.6C in the last 45 years.

    Roy Spencer is just the proverbial frog in the pot of warming water.

  3. @John Brookes
    Happy Australia day comrades,

    “The uncertainty in that measurement makes it the equal hottest year of the last 100 odd years.”

    If you do not know the temperature due to “uncertainty”, please explain how you know if it is hot or cold?

    Do the 97% of scientists who assert mankind can control weather conditions averaged over a period of time (climatology); also “believe” this has something to do with with vaccination?

    Kind regards,


  4. @phoenix

    If you do not know the temperature due to “uncertainty”

    If you want certainty stick to mathematics. In the real world every measurement has uncertainty. It’s astounding that there are people who don’t understand these simple facts. They are either dumb or playing dumb.

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