33 thoughts on “Monday Message Board

  1. That really is low, Ronald. Young people using their pathetically low incomes as a excuse to pay low rent, and then have the hide to attempt to have some kind of a life for themselves with real coffee.

  2. @Ronald Brak

    So someone on a median wage gets a second median house by, in effect, getting someone else to pay their mortgage – a renter and other tax-payers?

    How come society is organised this way? Those with capital get borrowing capacity which they use to suck more assets to themselves by using other peoples (ie renters) hard won wages.

    This is obnoxious.

  3. @Ivor
    This surfeit of capitalist goods from overseas ‘with nowhere to be put’ might hold some explanation for the ‘phenomena’ to me of mushrooming self storage facilities. Has anyone documented the rise and rise of these soul-less buildings? People I know invariably proclaim that they are a temporary holding, but I doubt this is true judging from tv auction shows that climax with the revealatory lifting of the roller doors! Is it just a more sophisticated form of hoarding… given a capitalist imprimateur by being paid for?

  4. @pablo

    Yes, workers at the top of the global capitalist system are drowning in commodities while elsewhere workers live in crowded factory dormitories or shanties.

    The fact that we have this surfeit means that capital finds it almost impossible to invest anymore – even with negative interest rates as a prod.

    Crazy.

  5. I predict that Trump will win rust-belt Ohio, based on Sean Trendes “missing white working class voters” thesis. Five Thirty Eight gives Kaisch a 60% probability of winning, no doubt based on the homeboy governor effect. The RCP poll average puts Trump 4% ahead. I can’t find any bookmaker giving odds on the Ohio REP primary.

    A Trump victory in Ohio would somewhat vindicate a US “Blue Labour” strategy. OTOH if he can’t win in Ohio I doubt he will get the REP nomination. So he needs to close the deal in Ohio if I’m to win my modest wager that he will be the REP nominee.

    Back in 2012 I was persuaded that Trendes analysis had shown that the conservative REP strategy of geeing up the white vote might buy US nationalists enough time to close the border before the globalists “elect a new people” strategy reaches a tipping point. After that’s it’s all over red rover for the Yankie-Dixie gringo as the US political culture morphs into a Norte American version of Brazil.

    It’s clear that Trump positioned himself in the REP primaries based on a political market analysis of this under served demographic: a populist nationalist appeal could drive up the poorer white vote in the REP column. Certainly enough to win the REP nomination although not enough to win the presidency.

    To win the presidency Trump will, in the post nomination period, have to perform what’s known as a “pivot” – i.e. betray his base – to broaden his appeal to the educated middle class. I suggest raising the specter of an AI Jobapocalypse. That oughta get their attention.

     

    ‘If there is hope,’ wrote Winston, ‘it lies in the proles.’
    If there was hope, it MUST lie in the proles, because only there in those swarming disregarded masses, 85 per cent of the population of Oceania, could the force to destroy the Party ever be generated.

  6. Further to Jack Strocchi @ 09 Mar 16 #30

    I finally found a betting site (Betfair) which offered odds on the Ohio REP primary. It’s actually pretty good value, not a bookie more a prediction market offering escrow service (in return for interest free loans?). Please gamble responsibly.

    Betfair were offering 3.2 this morning but Trumps odds have shortened to about 2.0 by this evening EST. I managed to put $200.00 on Trump at a range of odds between 3.2 and 2.8.

    Part of this swing of punting sentiment is based on Trumps now familiar turbo-charged turnout spike. NPR (03 Mar 16) reports the huge Trump groundswell that propelled his Super Tuesday victories. This seems to be coming from Sean Trendes “missing white voters”, the hard hat “silent majority” who appeared to have been overlooked by poll-driven psephologists like Nate Silver. (I try to blend intuitive ideology into my inductive psephology.)

    If voter turnout is any indicator of enthusiasm, this year’s GOP voters are way, way more pumped than 2012 voters were. Democrats, meanwhile? Their excitement seems to have dimmed since 2008.
    Last night, more than 8.5 million Republicans turned out to m in the 11 GOP Super Tuesday states that reported results. That suggests far more enthusiasm than the last time Republicans picked a nominee. In those same 11 states in 2012, turnout totaled only around 4.7 million.

    That makes this year’s turnout in those 11 states 81 percent higher than four years ago.


    Compare the sleepy DEM 2016 turnout down from the hopey-changey DEM 2008 highs:

    In the Dems’ 11 states reporting results from last night, turnout totaled only around 5.9 million — that’s around 2.6 million fewer people than came out in those states 2008, when Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama b in the middle of what would would be a long, hard-fought race.

    The DEMs turnout obviously benefits from Sanders charismatic campaign. If, as expected, Clinton II wins the nomination she’s going to have an uphill battle matching The Donald’s populist momentum. Her 2016 campaign slogan should be “Vote Hilary: A cure for insomnia”.

    The turnout variable is the Trump trump card and must keep DEM strategists awake at night. Plenty can happen – recession, terrorist attack, assassination attempt – between now and Nov 2016. All summer long I’ve been saying to my friends that Trump is like one of Napoleans lucky generals, with a field marshals baton well within reach.

  7. Further to Jack Strocchi 14 MAR 16 # 31

    But much of the late money is probably based on the complex psephologic algebra and ironic demographic dynamics that Trump is unleashing:. WND (13 MAR 16) reports on the the way Trump disparate,y benefits from REP dropouts and the late surge of white blue collar IND & DEM voters seeking REP registration:

    With Carson endorsing Trump on Friday, Trump stands to gain ground on Kasich, presuming that some Carson supporters who switched to Kasich might be persuaded by Carson’s endorsement to switch to Trump.
    On Friday, Reuters reported that Trump is likely to pick up votes in the Ohio primary from blue-collar Democrats.
    In Ohio, voters registered as independent can show up at a primary polling station and ask for either the Republican or the Democratic primary ballot, in contrast to a “closed” primary system in which voters are restricted to the party for which they are registered.

    On Friday, the Columbus Dispatch reported Mahoning County Republican Party Chairman Mark Munroe, a self-described die-hard Kasich supporter who campaigned for him in New Hampshire, is taking calls nearly every day from Democrats wanting to vote in the Republican primary.

    “And nine times out of 10, or 19 out of 20, you get the sense they are doing so because they want to vote for Trump,” Munroe told the Dispatch. “It’s been fascinating to watch.”

    “He’s getting Democrats to cross over,” Munroe said of Trump, “but he’s also getting a large number of unaffiliated voters – people who don’t participate in primaries.”

    The Columbus paper noted Mahoning County, a northeastern Ohio county that includes Youngstown, 8,639 people have asked for absentee ballots.

    Of those, 759 were Democrats asking for the Republican ballot and 1,053 were unaffiliated voters asking for the GOP ballot.

    “We could have 4- or 5- or 6,000 new Republicans in Mahoning County,” Munroe said. “Which would be a very significant number.”


    The Trump mo can only have gotten more jo from yet another Left-wing attack on his First Amendment free speech rights at the Chicago university rally. Obviously post-modern liberal DEMs have given up all presence at concern for liberty and popular democracy for that matter.

    The phrase “getting Democrats to cross-over” should send a chill down DEM Establishment spines. The last two REP nominees who achieved this were Nixon (1968/1972) and Reagan (1980/1984). It’s possible that Yankee hard-hats may be joining Dixie good ole boys in a REP red-neck faction. If this persists beyond The Donald it would warrant the term: “partisan re-alignment”.

    Despite this I have $100 on Clinton II as President. I predict that The Donald’s appeal to the hard-hats will not be enough to overcome the large college-educated bourgeois-bohemian bloc that will reluctantly come out so that the David Brooks of this world can sleep soundly. Plus there is a huge element of personality in his appeal, which cuts both ways.

    If it was up to me I would vote for a Trump-Sanders co-Presidency. Trump to nationalistically deal with foreigners. Sanders to social-democratically set domestic policy. Ahh, We can all dream.

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