Adani has just announced another scaled down version of its proposed Carmichael mine, bringing the initial capital cost down to $2 billion, and the estimated initial output to 10-15 million tonnes a year. As usual, the claim is that financing will close in the near future.
Unfortunately, it is possible that this time the project will go ahead. The Indian Supreme Court has reopened the possibility that Adani may be able to pass on to customers the costs of imported coal for its Mundra power station.
That doesn’t change the fact that the project is economically unsustainable in the long run, as well as being an environmental disaster (though not as big a disaster as in its original version). But the cost is now low enough that, if Gautam Adani is willing to put in enough of his money, he may find lenders willing to finance the rest.
At this point, it looks as if Labor will have to get off the fence, on which has perched for so long. The world needs to stop opening new coal mines, and Carmichael is a good place to start.
John Quiggin 
The Bloomberg report states that the Mundra plants use Indonesian coal, not Australian. It also mentions a capital restructuring under which the developers as well as lenders will have to take losses. The ruling no doubt keeps Adani alive, but it does not make a new coal investment look any sounder.
Same same only different (carmichael / bylong.) Bylong will probably be approved this wed. 7 Nov 2018.
abc.net.au/news/2018-11-05/korean-banks-rule-out-backing-adani-mine/10463838
” A media report in September suggested Adani was seeking to partly fund the Carmichael project by selling a stake in its Abbot Point coal port to Korean interests.
The Queensland government has said Adani must reach “financial close” before it will permanently wipe out native title claims to the mine site to hand over tenure to the miner.
But it has also asked Adani to put up security for a royalties deal that would allow the miner to defer hundreds of millions of dollars of state payments — which Adani is yet to sign after 18 months.”
The wording in article says it all really ” (Korea Eximbank) does not have any intent to provide financial support to the Carmichael project, since, as far as we know, there are not any Korean interests any more in the project,” or restated “if we owned it we would finance it”. Another textbook example similar to adani / Carmichael… Bylong.
abc.net.au/news/2017-05-12/divisions-in-nsw-community-over-bylong-coal-mine/8520096
” the Bylong Coal Project would extract about 125 million tonnes of run of mine coal over its 23-year operating period.”
” the economic benefits of the mine would be widespread, generating more than $592 million to the region.”
592m ÷ 23yrs = $25.7m a year.
Local council got (done over) with $7m over life.
Can anyone answer this please? Bond, equities & currency + finance costs will probably generate more than this each year! Could an ecomonics professor detail such a claim please or point out research to confirm?
abc.net.au/news/2018-10-09/byalong-valley-coal-mine-gets-approval-from-nsw-government/10355668
” The development application and environmental impact statement were placed on public exhibition in 2015 and received 364 submissions, of which 336 opposed the project.”
28 wanted it. 336 do not.
abc.net.au/news/2018-11-05/coal-mine-rehabilitation-cost-could-hit-taxpayers/10463302
“Report author Rick Humphries, a former environmental consultant for Rio Tinto, said the findings pointed to a “worst-case scenario” where some mines could “go belly up and cease production”, leaving the multi-million dollar clean-up costs to taxpayers”
Nothing new as our host continually points out, yet ‘we’ are still doing bau. Where are those who made money when you need them. Even in kindergarten we get kids to realise the value of cleaning up.
And yes I do need a hand to analyse costing above “Bond, equities & currency + finance costs will probably generate more than this each year!”. Any takers?
Interesting and sinister, as is ever the case with anything to do with Adani.
Has the surreptitiously agreed on FTA recently in the news given Adani any further means to overrule government or community objections to the thing? We do recall news of China for example seeking to meddle in this internal affair of Australia on behalf of Adani and now I wait for another backstab in the wake of the next federal election.