Uncategorized Sandpit March 18, 2019 John Quiggin16 Comments A new sandpit for long side discussions, conspiracy theories, idees fixes and so on. Like this:Like Loading... Related
16 thoughts on “Sandpit”
Temperature changes without people throughout the long history
Human do not cause much of the present climate change, maybe around 5% of it yet that is not a reason to not have clean environment.
At the present productivity levels needed work is completed by 10% of work force, what should the rest of working age population work at? And considering more automation in the future the needed working population will be much lower.
By observing the recent development of new jobs, the major growth is in entertainment and marketing. Entertainment is good part but marketing is destructive trend, it creates practice of active lieing in the world. It creates the Gresham dynamics where bad behavior drives out good behavior. The marketing growth must be stopped.
Once the artic permafrost is melting rapidly then humans will be causing 15% of the climate change directly. But since the permafrost got to that point at the speed that it did one could say that humans are responsible for all of global warming.
Jordan from Croatia says: “Entertainment is good part but marketing is destructive trend, it creates practice of active lieing in the world. It creates the Gresham dynamics where bad behavior drives out good behavior. The marketing growth must be stopped.”
Thanks and agreed.
I used to work for consulting engineers and they produced such graphics. My job was to make the intelligible for normal humans. I’ll try to find such a graph visualisation.
As your link didn’t appear, and I am always skeptical particularly of climate anything, here are the references…
File:Holocene Temperature Variations.png
And Muller no less – the hockey stick guy.
This is the person Jordan linked to who produced the, imho, not so readable yet accurate linked graph…
“Starting in 2011, Rohde has attracted media attention because of his role in the Berkeley Earth project (also known as “BEST”) as the lead scientist, and was responsible for writing software that searched databases for global temperature records, compiled the records, and merged them into a global temperature record, a task that Muller compared to “Hercules’s enormous task of cleaning the Augean stables.””
Who’s supervisor said:
“Global warming is real. Perhaps our results will help cool this portion of the climate debate. How much of the warming is due to humans and what will be the likely effects? We made no independent assessment of that.
Richard A. Muller (born January 6, 1944) is an American physicist and professor of physics at the University of California, Berkeley. He is also a faculty senior scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Most recently, in early 2010, Muller and his daughter Elizabeth founded the group Berkeley Earth, an independent 501(c)(3) non-profit aimed at addressing some of the major concerns of theclimate change skeptics, in particular the global surface temperature record. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_A._Muller
“In economics, Gresham’s law is a monetary principle stating that “bad money drives out good”. For example, if there are two forms ofcommodity money in circulation, which are accepted by law as having similar face value, the more valuable commodity will gradually disappear from circulation. ”
I was aware but barely knew of Rhode & Muller. But Gresham’s Law?! Another piece of my ignorance I am now aware of. Thanks Jordan.
Oops! :’s dont work. Tricky.
You have to copy and paste into browser then insert colon and delete spaces to view. Or go to wikip and type ”
” File:Holocene Temperature Variations.png ”
File:Holocene Temperature Variations.png “https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File Holocene_Temperature_Variations.png:
Messy. I hope first link address appears.
Questioning Macroeconomic Analysis.
This paper from Blair Fix: “The Aggregation Problem: Implications for Ecological and Biophysical Economics” is well worth reading. I suggest VSPs (Very Serious Persons) read it in full. Click on this link and then open the pdf.
I am adamant that people who take microeconomics seriously or seriously critique it, should read this article. It’s an eye-opener for the theory of macroeconomics, I believe.
Perhaps if people read it and start commenting we can analyze some of these issues.
Nice Article Ikonoclast but it is not an eye opener to me
You have mentioned that VSPs should read it which i take as Economists as VSP since it completely demolishes their profession as scientific.
Anyone who followed multiple schools of economics can see that such huge variety can not be scientific. Also, knowing that if given set of the same values every single economist will produce different results, economic profession is nothing more then quakery (quak, quak).
Yet, good economists still is a very much needed value and the theories provide some values but mathemathics in econ do not provide no additional better outcome.
It is well known that GDP measures have no significance but it still is used as marketing tool to push an agenda.
MMT on the other hand avoided much of the problems from the Fix’s article by staying on pure monetary system analysis, not converting real into abstract values as is the common practice in econ profession.
All firms and people use accounting as a measure of solvency and profitability/ usefulness. Double accounting bookkeeping is the way that real world measures and decides on how to proceed. As such it represents all quantifying and all powerful tool that microeconomic decisions are made by and it is used to create money, destroy it and distribute.
In economics everything goes by by using double accounting bookkeeping and by using it to analyze economics, MMT avoids the trap of changing measuring stick and confusion in what the term represent or how it should be defined.
You have complained that MMT is not satisfactory since it does not fully define interactions between real and monetary systems. Yet i find it defined but not accepted by opponents. Monetary system leads real production outcomes and force decisions on the real world. This is very nicely expressed in adage “Money turns the world around”. Since money and all micro decisions come from Accounting which has simple and widespread rules, thus as reliable tool, by staying in accounting process rules, MMT gives out reliable results.
Is that really a nice article?? I only had time to read the first 3 paragraphs. Maybe in my haste I misunderstood something. But what I thought that I understood was that the problem is not capitalism but monopolies. Yet everyone knows that a key criticism of capitalism is that monopolies are inevitable in capitalism? Ok a person might or might not agree with that crticism. But if a person is going to write that monopoly is THE problem I hope that they write a lot about explaining why this problem is not inevitable but was only an accident of historical coincidences that are unlikely to repeat themselves.
The article explains why economics can not be exact science. how Data that economists collect can not be precise. What is the price of bread this year? Can you take all bread as the same size, quality and type? Can you take one price while the prices of exactly the same bread differ from town to town? can you average it exactly?
Empiricists take one manufacturer of bread and one single type of bread as national bread price. and to calculate inflation they follow the price over the years. But manufacturers often stop making the same bread in few years.
A computer price from 20 years ago is still taken as inflated computer prices today even though the computer of today is a completely different product. But they treat it as the same item.
Still, those are the best possible usable data to measure something even though it is 80% precise. Still i find the national statistics very usable even though it can not be precise, just approximations.
Ikonclast wrote on March 20th at 09:21
“Endless growth is impossible and we are now entering the zone where further growth will do more damage than good. MMT-ers and Keynesians (of all types) are fighting the ideological and academic battles of the last real dilemma not the next real dilemma.”
Tummy IGLOO CAL CUTTA Oragatang Peel Funny I mean Peal HhaHha
I agree with that statement. Based on that statement I would like to help some people along to their final destination.
What I am about to write may not seem like what is normally considered to be economic advice. But that is only because what normally passes for economic advice is so bad that it is sinnflut, figuaratively speaking. (Canberrra Police)
Many (Australian) economists and all (Australian) military officers have been faced with a delima their entire carreers and they have never even realized it. Why, because they have literally been traped in a cycle of SAMSARA. SAMSARA is a military acronym for Same Attitude Means Same Action Repeated Again. (Gunpowder Plot)
For their entire carreers people, especially military officers, and members of the legal proffession, have faced a choice. What is at the pinacle of their loyalty? That could translate in to what is their God. There are not as many possible answers to this question as it might seem as first. Choice A is Family, Nation, and Constitution (or traditions if no constitution exists). Choice B is to truth, justice, and reasonableness. (Iranian Sponsored TV ads hack election)
But since no one has come along to tell them explicitly that they actually face this dilema, they have for generations chose choice A by default. Choice A is not only natural they have been explicitly taught that obidiance is a duty, therefore only one choice is possible. (Bridge over Troubled Water).
But what happens if someone realizes that there is another possible choice. What if someone wondered, Is it right? (Source: Eiiza)
Well even if a person in some position of authority or trust did come to the conclusion that they were capable of doing something different very few would chose to step out of line in any case.
The fact is that the God of Family, Nation and Constitution is a child eating God. This God demands that you sacrifice children to him. But he demands that you sacrifice other people’s children to him.
Such a choice might be a bit unpleasant to most. But it is an unpleasantness that they will bury inside of them when faced with the demands of the God of Truth, Justice, and Reasonableness. This is a God like the God of Abraham that demands that you place your own children on the table of sacrifice.
That is a reality and a risk that has naturally been unacceptable since the dawn of humanity.
(AK101s from Venezuelan stockpiles)
The global civilzation that has evolved to this point has simply moved the potential victim pools further away from our doorsteps. (Admiral Toyota)
But despite the best efforts of humanity to appease the Constitution God the appitite of this God has continued to grow. Now there are no safe children left in the world. In the not to distant future, it is beyond possible, it is likely that everyone is going to be dying with their children. (LTG Cavoli Ravioli)
But the growth of this Constitution God was not unpredictible. Nor was the destination that this God has lead us to unpredictable. But not only did our nations (the USA and Australia) leading military figures ignore such warnings, they deliberately constructed a campaign to prevent others from recognizing what was going on.
With their constaant harping about protecting the “nation’s intrests”they helped to blind people to reality rather than enlighten people. To call such people leaders is itself a deception. Such people are crass manipulators. (not much time left before an (the?) attack)
If there was even one ounce of respect for the God of truth and justice in these manipulators they would understand that the only way that they can demonstrate a shred of committment to the God of truth and justice would be to lock themselves in their offices, block the door, douse themselves with a flamable liquid, sit on their desk Buddha style, stick their left thumb up their ass, and with their right hand and a lighter ignite the flamable liquid that covers them. ( That is called Fire for Effect in the military.)
Ok maybe I am not really fooling anyone. It should not be my job to fool anyone anyways. But apparently the job is not getting done as I do not see even a rash on the asses of the Generals let alone any burn marks. So who is going to do the job?
I wanted to point out that I am aware why the God of family, nation and constitution (fnc) is a much more popular God than the God of Truth, Justice and Reasonableness (TJR). That is because the fnc god is a much more present and identifable god than the TJR god. When our children cry out for a candy bar while we are shopping, or an ATV while watching television we hear the demands of the fnc god loud and clear with no ambiguity. When a nation’s court clarifies the meaning of a constitution during a court proceeding it has chisiled a piece of a potrait of this god that the court wants you to believe is chisled in stone, or perhaps amber. Then of course the fnc god is close by with it hands, ears, and eyes close to the ground passing judgement on all those in the realms that it watches over.
The TJR god on the other hand is a god that exists only in the shadows of our imaginations. The form of this God changes with the seasons and with the locations. This God does not ask for your loyalty. It ask for your creativness. The world is its canvas and your behaviors are the colors that are used to create the image that the canvas reflects.
Through the study of alchemy I have identified four primary colors that can be used to paint the canvas.
I should also say that the background of the canvas does not appear to me to be uniform in color. It appears to me to be made up of billions of similar shades of a color.
Well alchemy and astrology are discredited fields of knowledge in this day and age. I doubt if I should go any further in my discription than this.
It is time for me to go for my daily walk anyways, all the way to the cookie jar.
The question that is ever present is what should I (We) do now. To answer that question I (we) need to ask what are the facts that I (provesionaly) think that I know. But just as important, something that apparantly huge numbers of people pay no attention to what so ever, is what is the relative relevence of these facts.
Our world’s so called leaders spend huge amounts of time pretending that things which are no threat to them or those that they are charged with protecting are imminant threats that world leaders need to discuss and solve so that their citizens can not only survive but prosper. Huge amounts are written by the press and historians about things that were said and things that happened. Sometimes that most important things to know is what was NOT said or what did NOT happen.
Millions of people around the world have figured out that the masses are being hoodwinked.
Yet that has not resulted in a solution because these masses can not agree on who is doing the hoodwinking and what truths exactly are being distorted. The masses are divided against themselves.
Those of us who drive a truck or who teach in a school or work on a farm or in a coal mine or on an assembly line, who have managed to come to understand that the leadership of much of the world is corrupt are not to be held responsible becasue they did not succeed in organizing an effective response to this corruption.
There was always only one group of people who had the skills, access to the crucial information and access to sufficient resources to challange the manipulators who have turned our governing institutions in to continuing criminal enterprises. But because their human foundations were riddled with holes they were easily reprogramed by a training process that turned them from potential defenders of a republic in to defenders of empire.
You are the ones that have aided and abetted these manipulators in their efforts which have sentenced us to a premature death. I imagine that you are proud of yourselves. If by chance there is a real human being left among you service to humanity is still an option. No you can not save humanity. It is to late for that. Well maybe with drastic measures we could get a few extra decades of life. No you can not save humanity. So, you can not be a hero to humanity even if you now give it your full and undivided loyalty. Still your service would not go unappreciated if you could achieve one goal for humanity. That goal would be to give humanity the satisfaction of revenge.
The mere deaths of those who have set the malevolent policies of the past decades is not nearly enough to achieve justice. No those responsible for our cold blooded murders must be burned to death if justice is to be renedered.
Justice does not require a formal trial. A fair trial can not be arrainged in any case because if it occurs in one place the jury will be overwhelming partial to the defendants. If it occurs in another place the jury would be overwhelming partial against the defendents.
It is up to you, those who know that they have been betrayed, to act of your own accord. You will gain nothing for your efforts. Your family will still die in the decades ahead possibly even just years ahead. Your family might even be impoverished much sooner if you survive the attempt to give us some justice.
You will be cursed by your own community just as Hassan Akbar is.
Why is it up to you and not up to me? Because I am not talking about indescrimant violence which has become the fashion in much of the world. I am talking about good old fashined Red Army Faction closely targeted violence. Only you the field grade officers (of the Australian military) have the access to deliver the gasoline and matches to the target.
Just for the sake of arguement, say that you do not agree that any General officers of the Australian military deserve such a fate. Well I would be willing to bet that US Generals (or Admirals) are found quite frequently somewhere in Australia.
Now just for the sake of arguement say that not a single person who ever reads this is a field grade officer on active duty or in the reserves of the Australian military. Then boo hoo hoo I wasted my time making this appeal. That cost me so much money I might go bankrupt. What if there is only one person who falls in to my target audiance.
Then that person should ask themselves if it is ONLY a coincedence that I have placed my appeal here at this time. It could be that you are being watched. It could be that you are being watched not only by Australian law enforcement or Australian counter intellegence you could be under survellence by forces with technology light years ahead of anything possessed by the USA or its allies. You could be under the survelence of the systems administrator. Hhahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
(Just for clarification that is an evil sounding ahahahahhahahaha like one would hear on an old Dracula movie not a squecky hahahahahahaah that one would hear on a sitcom. )
in the US Trump is making news by continuing to attack John McCain. I do not think that this attack on John McCain is just a random act of a man portrayed as a loose cannon who does not listen to what people tell him that he should do.
I suspect that his actions are part of a program of conditioning people(conservatives in this case) so that they will react in a way that they are supposed to react at some point in the future when they are to be mobalized or demobalized as part of a larger plan.
No I can not figure out myself what that larger plan is. But maybe my comment will spur a light to go on in someone elses mind because they might be able to connect pieces of a puzzle that I do not have.
Do not trust in God. Trust in Bamboo, Flax, Hemp, Rabbits, and Worms.
If you make a fence with the bamboo make sure that it has a gate in it that swings in both directions.
Bamboo, Flax, Hemp, Rabbits, and Worms. The 5 sacred symbols of The Secret Order of the Jihadists of the Scenic Path. Earlier, in 2018, on my own blog I outlined the differences between the pillars of faith of the jihadists of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and the pillars of life of the jihadists of the Scenic Path. But now I will reveal information that has never been revealed to people outside of the membership of the Jihadists of the Scenic Path.
The information is a compairison of the rewards that are promised to jihaddsts of ISIS and the jihadists of the Scenic Path. I am sure by now that almost everyone nows what is promised to the jihadists of ISIS should they become a martyr in a holy war in defence of Islam.
Therefore there is no need for me to repeat that. By compairison a martyr of the Scenic Path will recieve absolutely nothing. But that is not the end of the story. The behavior of the Scenic Path Jihadist could lead to a reward.
If a member of the scenic path does something exceptional, one of their decendents will recieve a poppy seed. If a member of the Scenic Path does something extraordinary one of their decsendents will recieve a sesame seed. Finally if something truely magnificent is accomplished one the their decsendents will recieve a flax seed. If the Scenic Path member has no decsendents the reward will go to the closet friend. If the member has no friends then the seed will be carved in to the shap of a rose and tossed to the people of humanity like the boquet of flowers tossed by the bride at a wedding. Any human that can recognize and catch the reward will have captured a very valuable work of art and science.
Yes these rewards are small. But that makes them easy to carry, and easy to hide. The first command for those who wish to apply for membership in the J.S.P. is that you do what you can with who you can when you can until you make contact with the legitimate authority of the J.S.P. It will be watching.
John, I apologise if I was uncivil. I really did think Svante was making some odd throwaway crack which I didn’t get. I could have been less short in my reply. Sorry, Svante.
The actual figure is about 25%, for anyone interested. Or 35% if you choose to rope in all of the many, many Australians in similar situations to the one I outlined. See ABS Births 2017.
Leith van Onselen made no effort to do any of this. To the extent his article is true, it makes the rather banal observation that “increasing a population at a given rate increases a population”.
Who is not expecting that migrants will have children, or is seeing something wrong with this?
And fwiw, according to the ABS, the fertility rate of migrant Australians is currently than less than that of native-born Australians.
Feel free to delete this comment if you’d rather me just leave the topic alone. But since van Onselen has appeared several times on the Bolt Report pushing these kinds of flawed arguments, it seemed worth addressing.