Monday Message Board

Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. If you would like to receive my (hopefully) regular email news, please sign up using the following link


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59 thoughts on “Monday Message Board

  1. The government/bureaucrat criminal conspirators would have no defence or indemnity against criminal charges. They likely would not have the crown representing them at trial either…

  2. Anyone know of other rulings invoking intergenerational impacts with such a definitive statement.

    JQ I hope you can / will use this paragraph in an article…

    “The predicted economic benefits would accrue to the present generation but the long-term environmental, heritage and agricultural costs will be borne by the future generations.”

    NSW’s Bylong coal mine proposal knocked back on ‘environmental impacts’

    https://abc.net.au/news/2019-09-18/bylong-coal-mine-proposal-knocked-back/11523856

    https://www.ipcn.nsw.gov.au/projects/2018/10/bylong-coal-project

  3. “Darwin – 33 and 80%rh, elsewhere 33 and 8%rh. Easy to see where fire will start.”

    There’s been plenty of bushfire fighting in the Top End lately.

  4. KT2 – I have long speculated that hitting dew point overnight plays an important but largely overlooked role in cool weather hazard reduction fires; it has assisted in managing fires (perhaps more for grassy areas than dense bush) so they go out by themselves, reasonably reliably. Low humidity and raised temperatures mean large areas are NOT going to hit dew point and that natural fire retardant affect is more likely, under global warming, to be absent entirely – which greatly raises the manpower and equipment requirement for safe hazard reduction burning.

    I also think we are still suffering the consequences of 200 years of arrogant presumption that the Australian vegetation mix colonist encountered was natural and Aboriginal burning practices were innately inferior – and dangerous – compared to the land use practices Europeans brought with them. I don’t know that such practices would cope unchanged with continuing global warming, but we are finally beginning to understand their significance and value. Not sure it can cope with risks of litigation in the modern context either – and that has been one more factor that sees landholders hold back from using fire as a land management tool.

  5. From what I have read, the aborigines were working under a different set of guidelines, the unintended consequences of their traditional burning was to deny colonists feed for their cattle, which became another point of conflict.

  6. Rog – yet in the end regular burning became – and is still – widely used by Australian graziers, for the fresh, green and more nutritious growth afterwards as well as bushfire safety, in echo of those traditional practices.

  7. Interesting anecdatum from CoalWire:
    American insurer AIG is under pressure to drop coverage of Adani’s proposed Carmichael coal mine.
    “An email from a company employee revealed that AIG’s head office in the US had directed AIG not to renew the coverage due to public pressure and concern that it could jeopardise its sponsorship deal with Rugby New Zealand (Rugby NZ).”
    Hard-headed cynics will doubt whether PR concerns can really sway major commercial decisions. But there is no a priori reason why not. The mine is a poor risk, and AIG is a retail insurer for whom public reputation is important.

  8. Svante says “There’s been plenty of bushfire fighting in the Top End lately.” “Plenty” detailed…

    After reading articles below, it would seem education and culture effects will alter fire ammount, location and intensity. Ever thus but very sobering read.

    Regarding bushfires NT…
    “27 percent of fires were deliberate, but the cause of 67 percent of fires was unknown. Hence, deliberate causes accounted for 81 percent of all cases where a cause was delineated”.

    And it states 46% are grass fires less than a hectare.

    “Understanding bushfire: trends in deliberate vegetation fires in Australia
    http://aic.gov.au/publications/bfab/bfab052
    Cont…
    “A sharp decline in humidity and surface soil moisture content occurs with the rapid arrival of the dry season. Continued dry conditions over subsequent months leads to curing of grasses and other vegetation, and the land becomes primed for fire activity. … (Australian Bureau of Meteorology 2007a,b).

    “Changes in previously established patterns, whether through land management or, most pertinent to this discussion, the activity of arsonists can induce major environmental changes and loss of biodiversity. Intense fires are particularly damaging, resulting in a significant decrease in abundance and diversity across most faunal species.

    “27 percent of fires were deliberate, but the cause of 67 percent of fires was unknown. Hence, deliberate causes accounted for 81 percent of all cases where a cause was delineated. The proportion of unknown causes varied markedly between centres, hampering attempts to delineate regional differences in the extent of deliberate fire setting or to establish a definitive estimate of the rate in urban centres territory-wide.”

    “Time of the day 
    Most vegetation fires occurred between 11 am and 6 pm, but subtle differences were evident depending on the cause of ignition (Figure 30). The number of accidental fires rose sharply between 9 and 11 am, plateau until roughly 7 pm, before sharply declining over the next couple of hours (Figure 30). In contrast, suspicious fires peaked at 6 to 7 pm. The highest incidence of incendiary fires occurred between 7 and 9 pm. It was not uncommon to see a discrepancy between the times at which the highest number of deliberate and non-deliberate fires occurred. However, in both instances the peak number of fires occurred at a slightly later time than in most other jurisdictions.”

    “Twenty-seven percent of vegetation fires were deliberate (0.7% incendiary; 25.8% suspicious), with the cause of 67.2 percent of fires being unknown. Hence, deliberate fires comprised 81 percent of known causes. The percentage of deliberate fires annually remained uniform.” End AIC report.

    The BoM looks like it will need to change this paragraph to ‘early spring’ – not summer;; 
    “Southeast Australia—summer and autumn
    “…During late spring and early summer grass and forest fuels hold some moisture but fires can occur on hot days with strong winds. Fuels dry out in mid and late summer but winds are typically not as strong… “. 

    The fuel locally at START of spring -central west nsw – is already dry and 8% r humidity UNusual at this time of year. If you use BoM averages it looks as if relative humidity high. Yet 3+hrs everyday last week at 8% before midday. And winds -again avgs belie over 70km gust during these times of very low humidity.

    “Australia’s fire weather seasons… While these are traditional peaks of the bushfire season, local conditions can drive dangerous bushfire activity at any time…”
    http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/fire-weather-centre/bushfire-weather/index.shtml

    “People are esponsible for most of the fires that occur in northern Australia — prescribed fires, accidental fires and those started by arson. Fires are lit by a variety of land managers including the Bushfires Council, conservationists, traditional owners, rural block owners and pastoralists.” And, it liiks like NT has more intensive lightening. See lightening intensity maps…
    http://learnline.cdu.edu.au/units/env207/fundamentals/ignition.html

    So you were correct to point out NT fires Svante. Any references and data appreciated to flesh out ‘plenty’ next time.

  9. JQ has posts on bushfires…
    https://johnquiggin.com/?s=bushfire

    Would you, JQ, reference this please?

    “Meanwhile, back in the real world, I’m starting a long-postponed project on bushfires and climate change with a former postdoc of mine who’s been working in the US for some years and is back for a long visit, having arrived just as the Tasmanian fires started it.”

    https://johnquiggin.com/2013/01/09/wouldnt-even-know/
    “… if their a**e was on fire. That’s just about literally true of Australia’s climate delusionists. As the hottest temperatures on record set off the predictable (and predicted) bushfires, they keep on with the same old stuff.”

  10. KT2, re entreaty – “plenty” from the NT – “I heard it on the radio, saw it on the television” – a quick look at ABC News for “northern territory bushfire 2019” shows:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-15/northern-territory-on-alert-bushfires-threaten-property-darwin/11514770
    Firefighters on Saturday battled a number of erratic spot fires in the rural Darwin suburbs of Girraween and Howard Springs. Fire and emergency services remained on high alert on Sunday with strong winds forecast across the Top End.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-16/northern-territory-bushfire-family-home-rural-area-lucky-escape/11517602
    Top End blazes ‘apocalyptic’
    Multiple emergency alerts and watch and act warnings were triggered in the Top End between Friday and Monday, as powder-keg weather conditions saw fires spark in the suburbs of Girraween, Howard Springs, Humpty Doo, Dundee, Berry Springs and more.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-28/bushfire-outlook-not-good-news-but-will-we-heed-the-warnings/11434778
    Meanwhile, the Northern Territory is already in its fire season. The dry conditions have led to reduced growth, but conditions are expected to remain normal until the wet comes to offer some relief.

  11. Craig Kelly has said to school students that everything they are told about climate change is a lie.

    But if that is true, that means that what he is telling them about climate change is a lie, including his claim that what everybody else is telling them is a lie.

    And if it is false, it means everything they are told about climate change is true.

    But that then includes what he is telling them, including that it’s a lie.

    These logical contradictions are enough to do your head in.

  12. Email from my daughter’s primary school this arvo.

    UPDATED: Early Departure: Friday 20 September

    Dear Families,

    The school is aware that many families will be withdrawing their children from class early tomorrow so that they can attend the Climate Strike. To make this manageable for the school office, I request that these students are collected before 12.45pm while students are still in the classrooms – before going out to lunch play. Parents are to sign their children out at the office and then collect them from their classrooms.

    UPDATED INFORMATION: If another parent is taking your child from school to attend the Climate Strike, please send the school an email stating that you give permission for that adult to collect your child from school. We need written permission to release children to adults that would not normally collect your child.

    A reminder that we have an assembly at 1:30pm and a 2pm dismissal.

    Kind regards,
    [removed]
    Principal

  13. The Guardian said the government spends close to 8 billion $ on the job network system ‘helping ‘ the unemployed. At 1 M unemployed that is $8000 each per year. . Why arent these self proclaimed prudent economic managers whipped mercilessly in the press about that ? I believe K Rudds wife got very rich off the JNMember system.
    Todays climate strike should be huge because the last one was and this time it has more mainstream media coverage in the lead up. There is a growing democratic tide that cant be held back forever .

  14. Svante I’m glad you agree with me that humidity is a problem…
    “as powder-keg weather conditions” in nsw or nt.

  15. Sunshine +1
    “spends close to 8 billion $ on the job network system ‘helping ‘ the unemployed. At 1 M unemployed that is $8000 each per year. . Why arent these self proclaimed prudent economic managers whipped mercilessly in the press about that ?”

    3 ‘job providers’ now up from 2 of popn 10k.

  16. Spoke with National Parks yesterday. I forgot NP as firefighters, so that makes 4 separate sets of fire managers locally.

    Central west nsw – 3 bushfires, one peat bog fire and one shale fire – last week. All exxtinguished with help of 30mm rain. Peat fire from last year.

    They measured to their surprise 9% humidity. BoM won’t accept Nat Parks weather data!

  17. Journalist Paul Bongiorno said that for the last election Clive Palmer spent $60 million , the Coalition spent $30 million ,and Labor spent $18 million. Those figures do not include the value of the 6 year smear campaign that the Murdoch media empire conducted against Bill Shorten.

    Also – as a counter to the argument that, being small, Australia cant make any difference to the world issue of carbon ; we are one of the top emitters per capita and the 14th biggest in absolute terms whilst being the worlds 3rd biggest exporter of carbon via fossil fuel. Apart from that we still have not managed to squander all of our soft power -we still have influence beyond our numbers.

  18. “Journalist Paul Bongiorno said that for the last election Clive Palmer spent $60 million , the Coalition spent $30 million ,and Labor spent $18 million. Those figures do not include the value of the 6 year smear campaign that the Murdoch media empire conducted against Bill Shorten.”

    Mind you, a significant fraction of that time was when Malcolm Turnbull was PM and the OZ in particular would have smeared him just as much as Shorten during that time.

  19. Sunshine – If our share is so small it should give us reason to believe doing it will easier to achieve, not harder, but like so many obstructionist arguments the truth gets turned upside down. I think calls for Australia to NOT do it’s (not that small) share because it won’t make a difference are based on the premise that Australia will be acting entirely alone. Which has never been true. Between a quarter and a third of global emissions come from nations with emissions equal or less than Australia’s – and most appear willing to commit to doing their share. We should continue to call for Australia to do it’s full share – without any creative accounting and other kinds of cheating.

    I keep thinking of war analogies – we know if everyone comes out of the trenches and charges, the enemy will be overwhelmed, but if everyone waits until others go first, no-one will and we will fail and fall. Ignominiously. Had that reluctance to act been part of our Australian ethos we would not have such pride in our military endeavors.

  20. “Sunshine – If our share is so small it should give us reason to believe doing it will easier to achieve, not harder, but like so many obstructionist arguments the truth gets turned upside down.”

    This is pointless. The science IS IN FACT SETTLED and it did not come out on Al Gore’s side. Now we all should agree that we ought to be thinking about energy economics around the clock like some of the girls in the office think about chocolate.

    And we all should also agree that our hyrdro-carbon paternity will not last forever, actually it WILL, but not as an economically viable thing.

    With these ingredients we should start working together. We should be thinking in terms of decades and centuries and forgetting about panics.

    The Professor paved the way with his television performance when he said many times “Renewables and Storage” and he never said “Renewables” alone.

    We have to work together. A bird flies on two wings. And these pseudo-religious beliefs have to sent to the fires.

  21. Thanks Ronald. Sorry I didn’t make it very clear why I posted that. It wasn’t so much to let people know the times today. It was more a response to Craig Kelly, following Smith9 and may’s comments… good luck with your lame attempt to influence our children by calling them sheep and lemmings. Here’s what’s actually happening tomorrow.

    I found it amusing he called the parents of children across Australia liars. I thought conservatives believed strongly that what parents teach their children about the world is sacrosanct, and politicians and the like are supposed to butt out. Which is in fact what the school were doing.

  22. They do think like that in general Nick. Thats the template alright.

    But this climate stuff is all lies from start to finish. There is no getting around this. Sorry you had to hear it from me. I looked into it really solidly 2005-2008. Nothings changed in the interim.

    Its flat out lies. And its never going to be any different.

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