Back again with another Monday Message Board.
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John Quiggin 
The “lockdowns” increasingly being adopted to slow down COVID-19 don’t seem to have clear rationale for who needs to go to work and who doesn’t. For example, in Spain, people may only go out to get food, medicine, visit health centres, go to the bank, or go to work. The first four items undermine the fifth. They imply that not everyone should be going to work because not all services will be in demand.
This would seem to have two implications. First is the obvious need to provide effective income support mechanisms so the fallout of low demand, lay-offs, bankruptcies etc.is minimised (along with measures to keep enterprises afloat). The second is that governments should have clear policies about what constitutes essential work.
So here’s the question. Where on the spectrum of regulation should this lie? At on end is laissez-faire “I’ll still go to work at my CBD jewellery shop because we’re still solvent and I don’t want to give my competitors an edge” to WWII-style reserved occupations, officially prescribed and enforced. Keen to hear opinions.
So my first Weak with a mixture of Corona Bordem and stress/scare starts.The stress part is mostly about my father who is uterly unwilling to change anyting in response to the coronavirus despite his progressed age and mixed health record so it will take many very stressful phone calls, mostly consisting of him insulting me to get him to behave at least semi responsible.
Governments everywhere need to overreact a month ago. Since they can’t do that, they need to overreact now. If it they overreact and it wasn’t needed, then a few liberties have been restricted and the economy takes an unnecessary hit. If they underreact and it is needed, then hundreds of thousands of people, maybe millions, will die.
Smith9,
Agreed, governments and people needed to overreact a month ago. I did so. I was stocking up slowly but surely from late January. Just last Friday I was going to do a last shop “before the mayhem”. When we arrived at the “retail wholesaler” (let us call it that) I could see the mayhem had already started. I turned around and we went elsewhere to a tiny suburban supermarket which was near empty when we arrived. We bought a few more basics as we are already quite stocked up. I tried to suggest to my better half that we should buy even a bit more. She vetoed the idea saying we could order groceries online. It now appears grocery deliveries are to be non-existent in the coming days (weeks? months?).
Hix,
We are caring for my father-in-law. He is 90 with pre-existing conditions, living alone at his own home, and has very poor mobility. We tried to stock him up over the last few weeks. He even has an extra fridge-freezer running and sitting near empty downstairs. He refused point blank to allow us to stock him up. I’ve noticed that when elderly people refuse help (I went through the same thing with both my parents sans the pandemic) they actually create more work for the people who are trying to look after them. It will now be more difficult for us to keep him going. No hospital and no nursing home will receive him in the current crisis understandably enough. This is unless he is dying in which case he will be triaged aside to die in the current crisis. This is just stating a fact about the coming triage emergency situation, not a criticism
Charles,
Our government in Australia, like most governments, is being entirely reactive. They have no understanding of what is happening nor where this is heading. We clearly have no pandemic plans worth the paper they are written on. Heck, our Queensland hospitals had shortages of beds and ambulance “ramping” in normal times. How were they ever going to deal with crisis? Well, we see the answer in Italy. Western nations are in no shape to deal with this crisis, due to decades of neolberal cost-cutting of essential services. At this stage I expect Australia (proportionally speaking) to have a worse crisis than South Korea but not as bad as Italy. But I fear we could be as bad as Italy. There is no sign yet that we are doing anything any better than Italy.
Measures should be far more stringent right now. Non-essential services and entertainments should all be shut down completely right now. International air ans sea travel should be completely shut down, none in and none out, except for returning Australians, essential government personnel and disease experts Non-essential interstate travel except for governments and medical personnel and transport should be shut down. There should no gatherings of more than 50 people; 500 is absurdly too high. Universities should be shut down. Schools are more difficult. Any school in a suburb with a cluster of cases (more than one) should be shut for the local duration of the cluster.
A full national emergency should be declared. We should go on to the equivalent of a war footing in some ways; in terms of regulation, enforcement of quarantines and lock-downs, requisitions and essential versus non-essential activities. All non-essential public and economic activities should completely cease.
View from lovked-dien Spain. It looks as if European governments have been drawing on reasonably professional contingency plans on the public health measures. It’s also clear that they are winging it on the economic ones. It’s not just macroeconomics. Food stores say stay open, non-food ones are closed. Should supermarkets be allowed to sell non-food items like jeans and light bulbs? It’s unfair competition if they do. On the other hand, people do need light bulbs.
Ikonoclast, I completely agree, but posed the question to see what others thought. Experiences being shared by Italian and Seattle doctors are devastating, with the most affected ICUs in various stages of breakdown (examples, having to re-use and bleach masks against recommendations, consider keeping incoming emergency patients in their cars because they can’t sterilise the waiting rooms fast enough, stopping the treatment of stroke cases, etc.). With sufficient evidence of transmission by asymptomatic individuals about 2.5-3 days before symptoms, and of much higher transmission rates in enclosed settings, it’s fairly astonishing that the sense of urgency is so lacking.
So no arguments at all. I also agree we are likely to end up somewhere between the European/US outcomes, and (let’s hope closer to) those of Singapore and Hong Kong. If near total lockdown to prevent or minimise the worst outcomes is justified, you would like to think contingency plans would have been on the shelf to declare which parts of specific sectors (health, food supply, basic utilities, communications etc.) are essential, and all ready to go.
We might also be forgiven for thinking that during long times of peace and stability, governments would have undertaken extensive “war-gaming” to consider a range of trade-offs between the public health benefits of lockdowns (of varying extents and durations), and the costs in terms of social disruption and economic dislocation.
I agree with you that this level of preparation has either not been done, or has been done patchily, or ineffectively. Very probably those public service experts charged with this sort of planning have either been dispensed with, downgraded, and those who remain simply don’t have the ear of political leaders, many of whom seem entirely disinclined to bother themselves listening anyway, or just don’t have the broad knowledge and understanding of the world that’s needed to quickly apprehend what’s happening.
hix: your father sounds a lot like my boss. My condolences.
Tsondoku!
May be a good one for you JQ, and a zoom review focussing on generations.
The Origins of You: How Childhood Shapes Later Life
“Social and economic wealth accumulated by the fourth decade of life also proved to be related to childhood self-control.” And yes that is with controls, including for childhood social class.
What in youth predicts later telomere erosion?
I would describe the writing style as “clear and factual, but not entertaining.”
You can pre-order it here,”
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/03/the-origins-of-you-how-childhood-shapes-later-life.html
The way I feel the cold tells me that winter has begun in Brisbane. Hospital and public health systems have been increasingly unable to cope with Ponzi migration numbers here for decades now. I can’t imagine how much worse that must be in Sydney, Melbourne, or Hobart, for examples. it’s little wonder a health emergency was declared here a week ago and before any other states have done so, after all Palaszczuk has an unusually important unicameral election date just the other side of winter (the first for fixed four year terms, so a likely eight years at least in which to grant and receive favours largely unchecked). Palaszczuk is toast if along with winter what has come to the far better public health and hospital systems of Italy comes to Queensland … and Adani can bank on a better and free railway being built.
Italy last week:
twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1237442793242591234
@DrEricDing, epidemiologist:
Coronavirus mortality in Lombardy is now 8%, more than double Wuhan! Lombardy health system is completely beyond ability to deliver adequate care – hence rationing who gets ICUs. It’s sad, so so sad. #COVID19 Let’s not let this happen to us America…
An “academic hospitalist”, Medical Axioms @medicalaxioms · Mar 8
twitter.com/medicalaxioms/status/1236663357349834754
People don’t understand the single greatest risk of #COVIDー19.
It is The Pinch.
Come along with me while I explain. …
… A month or two later, everything will be fine. If you get in a car crash and need a surgery for a broken bone, you will get it.
If your kid has appendicitis, they will schedule the operation and everything will be fine.
Not in The Pinch. In The Pinch, it’s not like you live in the USA any more. It’s not like you live in the modern world at all.
In The Pinch, simple, basic medical personnel and technology that has been available for 50 years won’t be available. You’ll be outside. Waiting in line. The supply closet will be empty. The ventilator machine will already be in use…
abc.net.au/news/2020-03-15/cancer-chemo-and-coronavirus-dont-be-flippant-with-covid19/12056582
“…Look at Italy. (abc.net.au/news/2020-03-13/italy-man-dead-sisters-body-coronavirus-lockdown/12052568) The death rate there is alarmingly high, not because the virus is more virulent, but because doctors are having to make that most dreadful of decisions.
They are having to “pick winners”, which means taking account of patients’ underlying health conditions and deciding who gets access to scarce resources like ICU beds, ventilators and ECMO machines (blood pumping machines).
Those less likely to survive are by necessity left to die.”
https://threader.app/thread/1237142891077697538
Jason Van Schoor @jasonvanschoor UK based Registrar in Anaesthesia & ICM
“From a well respected friend and intensivist/A&E consultant who is currently in northern Italy:
1/ ‘I feel the pressure to give you a quick personal update about what is happening in Italy, and also give some quick direct advice about what you should do. … 5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed. …
7/ We have seen the same pattern in different areas a week apart, and there is no reason that in a few weeks it won’t be the same everywhere, this is the pattern:
8/ 1)A few positive cases, first mild measures, people are told to avoid ED but still hang out in groups, everyone says not to panick 2)Some moderate resp failures and a few severe ones that need tube, but regular access to ED is significantly reduced so everything looks great
9/ 3)Tons of patients with moderate resp failure, that overtime deteriorate to saturate ICUs first, then NIVs, then CPAP hoods, then even O2. 4)Staff gets sick so it gets difficult to cover for shifts, mortality spikes also from all other causes that can’t be treated properly.
11/ if governments won’t do this at least keep your family safe, your loved ones with history of cancer or diabetes or any transplant will not be tubed if they need it even if they are young. By safe I mean YOU do not attend them and YOU decide who does and YOU teach them how to. …”
From a Swiss epidemiologist translating twitter posts of ICU physician, Dr. Daniele Macchini, in Bergamo, Italy:
A similar fb based sky news report from Dr. Daniele Macchini with video: https://uk.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-italian-doctor-says-fighting-covid-19-outbreak-091500607.html
“1/ Silvia Stringhini @silviast9 · Mar 9 …
8/ The boards with the names of the patients, of different colours depending on the operating unit, are now all red and instead of surgery you see the diagnosis, which is always the damned same: bilateral interstitial pneumonia.
10/ the epidemiological disaster is taking place. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.
11/ Cases are multiplying, we arrive at a rate of 15-20 admissions per day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the E.R. is collapsing.
12/ Reasons for the access always the same: fever and breathing difficulties, fever and cough, respiratory failure. Radiology reports always the same: bilateral interstitial pneumonia, bilateral interstitial pneumonia, bilateral interstitial pneumonia. All to be hospitalized.
14/ The staff is exhausted. I saw the tiredness on faces that didn’t know what it was despite the already exhausting workloads they had. I saw a solidarity of all of us, who never failed to go to our internist colleagues to ask “what can I do for you now?”
15/ Doctors who move beds and transfer patients, who administer therapies instead of nurses. Nurses with tears in their eyes because we can’t save everyone, and the vital parameters of several patients at the same time reveal an already marked destiny.
16/ There are no more shifts, no more hours. Social life is suspended for us. We no longer see our families for fear of infecting them. Some of us have already become infected despite the protocols. …
Mar 10
From what we have seen in Italy, the TP shortage is temporary. When the virus hits your town, that is the least of everyone’s problems … “
The Coronavirus and Right-Wing Postmodernism
Does right-wing skepticism toward the coronavirus have anything to do with the postmodern philosophy of Thomas Kuhn?
I’ll start with Kuhn. He is the philosopher of science who argued, in his 1962 book The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, that science can never achieve absolute, objective truth. Reality is unknowable, forever hidden behind the veil of our assumptions, preconceptions and definitions, or “paradigms.” At least that’s what I thought Kuhn argued, but his writings were so murky that I couldn’t be sure. When I interviewed him in 1991, I was determined to discover just how skeptical he really was.
Really, really skeptical, it turned out…
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/the-coronavirus-and-right-wing-postmodernism/
Starting with 250 infected (less cases than Australia has detected now and our test data are certainly a significant under-count) it would take about 16 weeks to get to 10 million people infected. This is if the R0 was a constant 2 (each infected person infected two more) and if the generation or iteration period of infections was one week.
If 10% become critical from COVID19 and 10% of the critical died that would be a 1% death rate. These are slightly pessimistic assumptions based on current recorded outcomes on the worldometers coronavirus site. Once the health system is overloaded these will be optimistic assumptions. If 10 million Australians catch it this year alone then this would mean 100,000 deaths from COVID19 in Australia this year.
If we can cut the R0 down significantly by social distancing and lock-downs then the above will not all happen, at least not in in this calendar year.
Zali Steggall has started a 3 week advertising campaign to get support for her climate change bill.
Her timing is nuts. No one will pay any attention over the next 3 weeks.
“…that science can never achieve absolute, objective truth” Science is about keeping on digging not ultimate truthy armchair bs, eg., this now uncovering medicalised left digit bias: “..People aged 79-years-and-50-weeks get significantly different treatment to those aged 80-and-two-weeks … despite there being just four months of difference in their respective ages” ===> abc.net.au/radionational/programs/healthreport/a-peculiar-form-of-bias-could-influence-whether-you-get-surgery/12017818 ====> coming soon, covid-19 triage biases uncovered?
From the Popper fan, the Kuhn detesting, the much lamented late great and inimitable Alan Saunders:
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/philosopherszone/does-science-tell-the-truth/3303458#transcript
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/philosopherszone/tribute-to-the-philosophical-alan-saunders/4080066
“UK coronavirus crisis ‘to last until spring 2021 and could see 7.9m hospitalised’ ”
“A senior NHS figure involved in preparing for the growing “surge” in patients whose lives are being put at risk by Covid-19 said an 80% infection rate could lead to more than half a million people dying.
Guardian Today: the headlines, the analysis, the debate – sent direct to you
Read more
If the mortality rate turns out to be the 1% many experts are using as their working assumption then that would mean 531,100 deaths. But if Whitty’s insistence that the rate will be closer to 0.6% proves accurate, then that would involve 318,660 people dying.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised
Hi JW from a bit further north-east. In the spirit of EU solidarity, the next time we open a bottle of wine I’ll raise a toast to social-distancing in your general direction.
France is getting increasinly strict with official closures, at least in part (going by comments from e.g. the PM and Health Minister) because they don’t feel the population is taking social distancing seriously enough and following their recommendations – just you try and get between a Parisian and lolling around in the local park on a sunny Spring day. At least we had a trial run a couple of months ago for what it’s like if they decide to shut down most public transport! Official announcements have been IMO reassuringly frank about measures taken, why, and what they see happening in future e.g. current phase and restrictions were forecast more than a week ago.
For those interested our local supermarket was low on pasta, rice/dried beans/lentils etc, carrots(?), tinned white and red beans (chick peas OK), and specialty cheeses (lol – though apparently not even the French are keen on munster cheese). Wine shelves were still well stocked. TP a non-issue.
Iko – “Universities should be shut down. Schools are more difficult…”
Can’t shut unis until April Fool’s Day following the 31 March census date locking in semester 1 uni fees. Schools not shutting is to give cover to Ponzi uni lobby revenues, and to give cover for banks’ loan books as the kids’ parents continue going to work to pay debts owed… I heard Belgium has closed schools except for the kids of essential workers – if so that is very sensible. Everywhere else mostly and here the reason pollies are giving not to shut schools en masse is some bs about herd immunity – which again is to blindly cover the banks no matter the cost to public health. It’s beyond ridiculous – criminal – as the banks were doomed some day soon in any event.
More cover of a different kind also to further overload hospital services was extended to the banks today:
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2020/03/coag-agrees-to-maintain-throttle-on-population-growth/
From a couple of visits to blogsites the only word you use to describe much commentary is, “scathing”.
So, this is what people voted for. serially. Now they have it, hope they are happy, the lazy dings.
Hope not too much grief comes the way of good people though.
The economics of rationing now needs to be seriously considered. As ljsjl pointed out stocks are running low of food preparation items as well as the obvious shortages. Rationing has been used in Australia when supply lines were compromised. Petrol rationing is well known in the recent past. A discussion on rationing essentials is now overdue.
It looks clear that Australia has greatly under-reacted to SARS-2 (the so-called novel corona-virus). Our numbers are today are 375 detected cases.Total cases including all non-detected and asymptomatic cases are likely in the range of 1,000 to 4,000. We are near certain to have a crisis of Italian proportions though if we are lucky we might limit it to South Korean proportions (relative to total population).
I’m puzzled that the Queensland local government elections have not been shut down and that little to nothing has been said about them on the media. Local elections are not all that important in the current scheme of things and could be postponed by state government action. The potential spread from people congregating, lining up, going into booths and sharing pencils is considerable.
The decision to let in Chinese students at all via 3rd party countries now looks like the foolish and indeed quasi-homicidal action it was. The greedy “education for cash” model of the universities and their lobbying for foreign students to return also played a role in this. The delay in shutting down sport on the weekend just past will also supercharge the epidemic.
Our borders should be closed as Canada is currently doing. Indeed, our borders should have been closed at the start of February. That would have been widely decried at the time as over-reaction but in retrospect would be hailed as the correct action. Reasoning from that, the actions taken today should be ones perceived to be over-reactions. For situations of exponential growth in risk, over-reaction is correct action.
Now they really did shut down pretty much anything short of banning going for a walk* here in Germany, or at least in Bavaria until mid April, not quite sure which rules are only regional and which ones apply for the entire country. Note: They actually did ban going for a walk in Italy, which seems odd, at least outside dense cities. So my concern about my father is more limited now. Did not see any shortage of basic supplies when i last whent shopping on thurseday by the way. Back to mostly boredom.
Hix: in Spain you can go for a walk with a dog, but not otherwise.
Yes, here in Australia we should immediately shut down everything non-essential. But our government is weak, dithering and failing to make calls in time. We should;
(A) Close our borders to all non-citizens.
(B) Ban all persons except foreign nationals from leaving Australia.
(C) Close all schools and universities in the nation, (I have come around to this view).
(D) Close all places of worship. People can worship at home and on line.
(E) Ban all public gatherings and groups in public spaces of more than 10 people.
(F) All non-essential occupations should stay home. This would require a definition of “essential”.
Require all persons except national essential economic and security personnel to stay in their homes completely self-isolated except for structured essentials shopping under strict conditions.
(H) Close all non-essential activities in the economy.
If we don’t do this right now about 150,000 people will die from coronavirus alone in Australia probably by the end of this year. The hospitals will be overwhelmed and the elderly and preople with medical pre-conditions will be triaged out of treatment will be sent home (essentially to die). It may even prove difficult to get authorities to come in a timely manner to take dead bodies out of homes as has already happened in Italy.
As we now know, the point of shut-downs and isolation is to flatten the peak of infections so the hospitals and medical people hopefully can cope. Flattenlng the peak will extend the main corona-virus “season” (lengthen the right-side tail of the Bell Curve). This lengthening of the “season” is unavoidable. The nation will probably have to shut down all non-essential activities for 6 to 12 months. We should treat this as “the lost year”. If we do this, we could (conservatively guessing) save 100,000 lives here in Australia. Students in the lost year will lose one year of schooling unless it can be done online. So be it.
Controls on all people, including young people, will have to become stringent. 24 hour curfews will have to be put in place for all except essential work and activities. People must knuckle down, stop being selfish and self-indulgent and do the right thing for the common good. The idea is to get the R0 below a factor of 1. Then the epidemic infection numbers will decline. Further issues are that herd immunity will rise and the vaccine might be discovered before too many people die.
Stay safe and stay responsible people, If you can, completely self-isolate from NOW even if you are perfectly healthy.
99.9%? Not good enough.
https://virologydownunder.com/why-does-soap-work-so-well-on-sars-cov-2/
https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-not-all-hand-sanitisers-work-against-it-heres-what-you-should-use-133277
Dubious yet interesting.
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/coronavirus-hand-sanitiser-make-at-home-alcohol-diy-a9376111.html
Coles this morning – LAST day they will take ph/ web orders and pick for pick up! They said ” can’t substitute and we don’t know what we are getting day to day. We have no 2kg potatoes, only 5kg”.
Who cares! Bushies saying re food and kids – ” you get what you get and don’t be upset”
I watched a person this morning fondle – yes fondle – for at least 30secs a 2kg brown rice – last packet – and then put it back???
Time to get serious with coles woolies aldi etc ala banks – up your reserves.
> For situations of exponential growth in risk, over-reaction is correct action.
Tautology or oxymoron? Not that it matters, even the countries that have “closed their borders” still have to let their own citizens in, and AFAIK everyone is letting cargo in even though cargo doesn’t move by itself. But “reduced border crossings” is still better than nothing.
I note that the kiwis are struggling a bit with backpackers especially but also other tourists. Some are saying “I’ll just keep touring round and try not to get too close to people” even during the 14 day self-quarantine. It looks as though stronger measures than “please do the right thing” are needed, so their govt is looking at deporting the noncompliant.
Meanwhile in Australia… we finally have guidance on self-quarantine… a coworker was reduced to using the kiwi guidance when trying to arrange their return from Japan. https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-information-on-social-distancing
KT2, I went to a certain large yellow/red chain chemist to collect a script last Wed. While there I couldn’t find hand sanitiser … in the end they only had small kiddy packs hidden at the front counter … price marked up … no CH3CH2OH nor other alcohol in it and sole active ingredient ineffective on any virus … complained to youngish managing chemist about ethics, responsibility, ripoff, deceptive conduct, criminality. He agreed in full, and I’m not sure why. Perhaps as a pharmacist he was more offended by his employer’s policy, or was overwhelmed by me, or not well trained in the company line? I think of the elderly going to pharmacies in droves, buying this bogus stuff in good faith, using it as they should, and later triaged to die because of it…
Ikonoclast, it seems that expecting covid-19 transmission to be mostly limited seasonally to winter in temperate climes was probably called too early. Transmission rates in some tropical countries seem now to have actually begun following the exponential pattern already seen earlier in countries situated in higher latitudes during winter:
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2020/03/covid-19-may-not-stop-in-summer/
“(H) Close all non-essential activities in the economy.”
What happens there? then
Podcast insights/observations from an economist living through it in Italy:
Hot Topic #9 Lenore Hawkins: Boots on the ground from the Red Zone (COVID-19 Lockdown in Italy)
https://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts-collection/macrovoices-hot-topic-podcasts/808-hot-topic-9-lenore-hawkins-boots-on-the-ground-from-the-red-zone-covid-19-lockdown-in-italy
“Big Farms make Big Flu” (and big SARS).
I would also blame wet markets, bush meats and China’s crowded peasant farming system with humans, chickens and pigs living in closely packed proximity. The wet market in Wuhan is still considered the most likely source of SARS-2 (COVID-19).
https://monthlyreview.org/press/who-should-we-blame-for-coronavirus-rob-wallace-has-some-answers/
Gardian reporting – live canovirus page top of site.
Death rate 0.87% from Korean data. Can’t find reference.
A bit like wealth – some higher some lower.
Svante- “think of the elderly going to pharmacies in droves, buying this bogus stuff in good faith”
Did last prep shop this morning. 2wks + supplies. Woolies oberflowingnwith oldies. Worse luck they let me in to!
After lunch went to bank and chemist – ghost town! Gift shop / antiques and dress ahop owner standing on foorpath chatting – zero customers.
I ordered and bought Vicks Vapodrops – with zinc as per…
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/zinc-lozenges-coronavirus/
No p2 mask.
I think zinc is at least a prophylactic if you need to be around people in tight spaces. Like this morning. Clutching. Straws.
I have kept my child home from school. Luckily in opportunity class on line with Auroa college via dept ed.
If you have schoolkids – ask school for access to scootle.edu.au – teachers lessons and resources. Keeps them away from bootube.
I wish everyone well. As can be.
I am sure I will be supplying 2-3 oldies v soon. My mum would have done this.
Common sense yet this paragraph stood out…
“”I go home every day to spray alcohol with a watering can filled with alcohol and spray on the car, clothes, hats, pants, and soles.” I should not “spray”! This is the wrong approach. It will explode and catch fire when it comes to static electricity!!! The correct way should be “wiping”, gently, just like the nurse disinfects the skin with alcohol before giving you an injection. Be careful, be gentle!”
How a woman from Wuhan took care of her infected mother without becoming infected herself
https://boingboing.net/2020/03/15/how-a-woman-from-wuhan-took-ca.html
Robert Skidelsky on MMT;
“ PS: Back in 2018, you wrote that, “Unlike the Great Depression of the 1930s, which produced Keynesian economics, and the stagflation of the 1970s, which gave rise to Milton Friedman’s monetarism, the Great Recession has elicited no such response from the economics profession.” You then concluded that, “Macroeconomics still needs to come up with a big new idea” that goes beyond “New Keynesian ‘tweaking.’” And yet you’re critical of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), whose proponents, you’ve written, are “too dismissive of the constitutional case for limiting government spending.” Where, then, should economists look to find a better option?
RS: My view of MMT – essentially, the idea that the state’s only “budget constraint” is inflation – is that it is technically correct, but can’t be sold politically, because it violates the ancient constitutional principle that the state should spend money only with taxpayer consent.
By contrast, the idea that the state should be “employer of the last resort” is very sellable – and very old. Long before economists supposedly proved that unwanted unemployment was impossible, governments routinely provided employment in times of crisis through public works.
A job guarantee today would abolish unemployment for the first time since the Industrial Revolution!”
Considering Comm Bank stock yesterday rebounded greater than ever, maybe we should;
“Close the Markets? Data and Psychology Say Maybe
“Any attempt to put a price on stocks now is guesswork, and confidence is on the floor.
So, I will now set out as best I can the case for markets to be closed for a while. At the outset, I would like to make the following caveats clear. First, I’m not at all convinced of this argument myself — but I think it needs to be laid out. Second, it is still unlikely to happen, at least unless things get considerably worse. No administration would want to close the stock market. This administration, so proud of stocks’ performance, really won’t want to. Third, I continue to believe that markets are for allocating capital much as Churchill said of democracy for government — the worst way of doing it, apart from all the others that have ever been tried. ”
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-16/data-and-psychology-may-argue-for-us-stock-market-closure?srnd=opinion
UPDATED: Coronavirus in Australia — selection of infograms
Truth and facts are the first victims of war — and mass panic. Below is a compilation, based on verified data of state and federal health departments, of the progress of COVID-19. It’s been compiled by digital communications specialist Juliette O’Brien, who, like The Mandarin, believes data is beautiful — and very, very helpful.
Data is based on media reports and verified with updates from state and federal health departments. Last updated: 10pm, 17 March 2020 (AEDT)
https://www.themandarin.com.au/127425-coronavirus-covid-19-in-australia-selection-of-infograms/
Not sure graph will display. (Delete graph link if a problem pls jq)
Plenty of others to see. Graphics suit my brain.
https://infogram.com/1pw1pepdlyzrxebv29em2p5z3nu9v5njqpq
Thanks Juliette.
Covid 19 trajectories and interactive comparisons.
Full citations and data linked on page. Any better pages for all countries? Not twitter please.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#cases-of-covid-19-growth-country-by-country-view
Certainly not an isolated Sunday event for Smocorona.
Certainly not an isolated event for Smocorona.
Scomo & Josh keeping calm and carrying on…
Tehan: Plebs Schools Should Remain Open But Independent Schools Are Independent — Parliament Orders Private Schools To Close In Order To Protect Their Own Children From Virus
Australia is in for a terrifying and dangerous explosion of cases in the next week to fortnight and possibly beyond. Our governments and authorities are doing far too little far too late… as usual with every crisis we face these days.
We should be in full national lock-down right now. Every public venue should be locked down. All sports and all recreational activities should be closed down except those that can be performed solo at least 10 meters from all other people. Every school, college and university should be closed. All people should be locked-down to home except for essential worker occupations and essential trips to shops, medical or to look after close relatives. The essential worker category would be quite broad, maybe even 50% of the workforce that can’t work from home. Everyone who can work from home should be required to do so by law (enforced on the employer).
Every person who can do so should be self-isolating absolutely rigorously apart from the above exceptions. This means staying in the “bell-jar” of your residence of property. Yes, you can walk the dog or go for a jog if you stay 10 meters away from all other persons. Err on the side of excessive safety in all matters.
At the end of all this, if you are still alive, you will likely know know personally of one or more persons who have died. The more rigorously you self-isolate even if you are totally healthy and not in the high risk groups, the less likely will be some among your family, friends, workmates, colleagues and acquaintances to die. Their fate and you own are in your own hands to a very considerable extent. Don’t wait for our totally incompetent government and authorities to catch up with events. Implement you own extreme self-isolation now and make it as strict as possible within the limitations outlined above.
This is citizen to citizen advice. Collectively we are far wiser and more powerful in every way than our feckless governments and selfish elites. We only need to realize this.
ABC radio news – Qld confirmed covid-19 cases jumped by 53% in the last 24hours (up from 25% to 28% elsewhere); 50 new cases, 144 in total; ~2,359,296 cases in two weeks time at 1.36 days time to doubling! Is this right?
Large stadium crowds for Elton John and NRL games in Townsville a few weeks ago… So, are the speculated viral contagion suppression hopes for intense UV and high humidity now dead? No slow down in the south either this coming summer?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-19/coronavirus-queensland-cases-rise-50-in-one-day/12070902?WT.ac=statenews_qld
Flatten the curve video fully referenced. Show to anyone in the dark or thinking herd immunity.
What This Chart Actually Means for COVID-19 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fgBla7RepXU&feature=emb_title
COVID-19/Flatten The Curve References at:
https://sites.google.com/view/covid-19-flattenthecurve/home
#COVID-19 #SARS-CoV-2 #FlattenTheCurve
Australia’s number of confirmed COVID-19 cases currently (as of 7:00 am Friday 20/03/2020) stands at 709. At the current rate of growth it is likely to be 1,000 by midnight Saturday, the end of the week.
Let us assume this number and further assume that our numbers are doubling and will double every 3.5 days, a very likely doubling rate. In one week from Saturday our numbers will be 4,000. In two weeks from Saturday our numbers will be 16,000. That’s about where Germany and Spain are now, In three weeks our numbers will be 64,000. That last number is far worse than Italy is now but only about 3/4 as bad as China is now. This is in absolute terms NOT relative terms.
Can matters get this bad? Yes, they can and without a total national domestic lock-down immediately they almost certainly will get that bad. By keeping schools open we are ensuring the epidemic will get entirely out of control. When hospitals are overwhelmed matters become extremely dangerous for everybody. Even those naturally relatively immune to COVID-19 due to youth and/or robustness will not be able to afford any other illness, accident or injury. Treatment simply will not be available or if it is you will then face exposure to COVID-19 to add to your other complications. Natural relative immunity to COVID-19 due to youth and/or robustness will be largely foregone as an advantage once injured or ill with some other condition.
To give a personal example, I am not young (65) but I have no medical preconditions that I know about. I maintain my steep little bush block with a low center of gravity ride-on mower, weed-eater and chainsaw. My safety equipment is mediocre at best and my methods at times gung-ho and careless. I have had to counsel myself to stop working at these tasks and let the grass and trees grow. One simply cannot afford an accident in these times.
For all these reasons I would exhort every person who can do so to immediately implement a total personal and close family lock-down. This means staying in your home or on your property NON-STOP with very few exceptions. If you are retired, on leave, laid off or can work from home you can do this. Do NOT attend ANY social or extended family gatherings at all. Do NOT attend any restaurants, fast food outlets or places of entertainment. When forced to venture forth for shopping, assisting relatives or work which is essential nationally or to your finances, do so with great caution and all the precautions possible. If the government is too foolish and lacking in foresight to implement a full lock-down it is up to the people themselves.
When the “curve is flattened” and indeed lowered back to the point where hospitals can cope well you may begin to resume normal life if you do not belong to a vulnerable group. I’ll be honest, I do not expect that to happen for at least three months. Italy appears to be a model for how the West will fail miserably to cope with this challenge. Matters are going very badly. Indeed, while China, South Korea and Japan seem to be controlling this outbreak reasonably well, all things considered, the rest of the world looks like it will come close to crumbling under this viral onslaught. It’s food for thought and indeed humility that China, South Korea and Japan appear to be the only socially efficient nations in the world on this measure.
There is something seriously wrong with our political economies and our allocations of resources. Western nations spend far too much on frivolous and wasteful consumption and war and far too little on social assets like medical systems, disease control, changes to the renewable economy and so on. This all has to change. Australia, a nation of wastrels given over to sport, gambling, drinking, holidaying, self-indulgence, laziness, selfishness and environmental vandalism will have to change completely or collapse. It’s that simple. Change or die, that is the message we can take from this crisis.
Ikon ” I would exhort every person who can do so to immediately implement a total personal and close family lock-down. This means staying in your home or on your property NON-STOP with very few exceptions”
Yes and we have.
Korea CDC have 201 days of updates with detailed info.
Even a phone number on page.
“The updates on COVID-19 in Korea as of 19 March
Date 2020-03-19 19:14
Update 2020-03-19 20:49
DivisionDivision of Risk assessment and International cooperation
Tel – 043-719-7556
Yesterday…
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
Full list of 201 daily releases.
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
Compare Aust dept health. Any better references please?
https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers#
China’s brutal crackown vs the rest of world.
Coronavirus: A visual guide to the pandemic https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105
I’m not sure if this study has already been mentioned, but it would be of interest here, given Professor Quiggin’s earlier pieces on the subject:
“Smoke pollution that blanketed Australia’s south-east for many months during the bushfire crisis may have killed more than 400 people, according to the first published estimate of the scale of health impacts – more than 10 times the number killed by the fires themselves.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/21/smoke-from-australias-bushfires-killed-far-more-people-than-the-fires-did-study-says
K2T,
There are several possible consequences of the disparity between the Chinese approach and the West’s approach to COVID-19. China have successfully suppressed COVID-19 in China for the time being. This leaves further Chinese provinces and cities vulnerable to new outbreaks. Presumably they will suppress them in the same manner when they occur. This will make it difficult for China to become open to the rest of the world again for the global economy. Re-open and they risk further outbreaks. The West, by default with its very weak early action, has condemned itself to major outbreaks, major economic disruption and yet more rapid progression towards herd immunity which just might be better. long term.
The West faces much short to mid-term pain. Perhaps the best response would be to flatten the curve to a level comfortably below ICU capacity (if we even can) and leave it there to generate herd immunity at a moderate rate. This is unless COVID-19 is dangerously bi-phasic which is just speculation at this stage. If COVID-19 is dangerously bi-phasic then we are in for a world of continuous hurt until when and if we get a vaccine, good medications and life-saving treatments.
Whichever way this goes, it signals a number of things;
(a) Completely open globalism and freedom of movement are or should be finished. The world is too open. A global monoculture of neoliberalism and carte blanche for excessive inter-connectedness are bad thing. Contagions, biological and financial, spread too fast.
(b) The world is over-populated.
(c) We have entered a new era with climate change, floods, droughts, storms and pandemics where it is no longer acceptable or survivable to spend a huge proportion of our resources on consumerism, consumption and having an all-round good time.
To address the above issues, world travel must drop precipitously. Cruise ships ought to be banned outright (they are floating disease platforms) requisitioned and converted into hospital ships. When the West and China no longer need these floating hospitals they can sent to assist Africa, India, South East Asia and South America. Tourist air travel must reduce by 90%. International tourism in general must reduce by 90% of more. These are part of the measures needed to reduce CO2 emissions in any case and will greatly reduce unnecessary destruction of the environment and vulnerable nations.
World trade needs to be throttled back. Local production and local manufactures need to be re-emphasized. Countries and regions need to become more nearly self-sufficient once again. This is not to say that world trade should cease altogether. That too is not the answer. But excessive trade is far from an unalloyed good. It leads to all sorts of bad effects from CO2 emissions to destruction of small nations and vulnerable peoples.
All nations need to spend far less on sport, tourism, alcohol and drugs, entertainments and so on. These are wasteful activities which are playing a real role in CO2 emissions, social damage, pollution, plastics pollution and general misdirection of resources. Subsides for all these activities should be phased out as we convert our economies to deal with climate change, pollution, floods, droughts, fires, inequality and lack of health, welfare and educational resources.
Without a response of this seriousness, our civlization will collapse and humankind will go extinct. The this multi-faceted crisis IS this serious.
“Tourist air travel must reduce by 90%…”
Go “business” class! Go private charter! Go the rich! Go the wealthy in personal jets! Go fresh produce!
The rich should be heavily, even punitively, taxed if they fly. A 1,000 % tax on jet fuel would do it. That’s another thing we need, huge taxes on ALL luxury goods (set according to the environmental and climate damage they cause) and take the GST off basic food and groceries. I might have to give up coffee. So be it. We can live without all this excessive consumer stuff if we have to. Soon, we WILL have to.
Ikon in options thread “Humans are very poor at understanding and visualizing exponential threat growth crises in real systems unless” trained or this…
See interactive – touch graph and reference / data appears.
Sources: World Health Organisation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institutes of Health, National Health Service, BMC Infectious Diseases
Chart: ABC News
Coronavirus: How deadly and contagious is this COVID-19 pandemic?
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-22/covid-19-how-deadly-and-contagious-is-coronavirus/12068106
Phew. At least we aren’t in a simulation!
And no, we haven’t been able to do it – “in short, remain close to the “truth”, in order to test the reaction of the apparatus to a perfect simulacrum. You won’t be able to do it: ” correct it seems.
Full quote;
“Simulation is infinitely more dangerous because it always leaves open to supposition that, above and beyond its object, law and order themselves might be nothing but simulation. […] Simulate a robbery in a large store: how to persuade security that it is a simulated robbery? There is no “objective” difference: the gestures, the signs are the same as for a real robbery, the signs do not lean to one side or another. To the established order they are always of the order of the real. Organize a fake holdup. Verify that your weapons are harmless, and take the most trustworthy hostage, so that no human life will be in danger (or one lapses into the criminal).
“Demand a ransom, and make it so that the operation creates as much commotion as possible – in short, remain close to the “truth”, in order to test the reaction of the apparatus to a perfect simulacrum. You won’t be able to do it: the network of artificial signs will become inextricably mixed up with real elements (a policeman will really fire on sight; a client of the bank will faint and die of a heart attack; one will actually pay you the phony ransom), in short, you will immediately find yourself once again, without wishing it, in the real, one of whose functions is precisely to devour any attempt at simulation, to reduce everything to the real – that is, to the established order itself, well before institutions and justice come into play.”
Jean Baudrillard
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simulacra_and_Simulation