Will the virus crisis cause another derivatives crisis ?

I had an inquiry about this and am posting my response

Some relatively good news on this. The volume of over-the-counter derivatives, including Credit Default Swaps, has generally been declining since the Global Financial Crisis. It’s still large and a potential source of danger.  The place to go for detailed information is the Bank of International Settlements. Here’s a press release from late 2017 with a graph for the declinehttps://www.bis.org/publ/otc_hy1711.htmI’ve attached detailed statistical data.


I suspect, though, that the real problem this time will be in more standard forms of corporate debt. The long period of low rates has allowed corporations to load up on debt. This story from Forbes is useful
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mayrarodriguezvalladares/2019/07/25/u-s-corporate-debt-continues-to-rise-as-do-problem-leveraged-loans/#4c55672a3596
And you can get statistical data for the US from the St Louis Fed
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/tags/series?t=corporate%3Bdebt

2 thoughts on “Will the virus crisis cause another derivatives crisis ?

  1. There it is kids, on a nutshell. Human nature and culture change seems a furphy, or at least further away then ever. Always fascinating, the parallel with the system and the virus as to mutation and reproduction.

  2. Wasn’t it the trouble a decade ago?

    Someone here mentioned “just in time” last week and here seems to be the problem, the conveyor fouls somehow, some thing is not delivered and paid for and those depending on immediate payment because of some sort of over-leveraging, for good and services or payment if debt is high, miss out and there is a ripple affect.

    I thought they said the government would suspend certain types of flow on for debts unpaid threatening collapse further up or down the supply chain and certain types of easy credit lines would be implemented as part of their stimulii to prevent too much jamming and breakdown?

    But the government is said by some to be too “selective”as to who is helped or not, a bit like with the refusal of wage increases and welfare increases to stave off recession, even over several years, wedded as they are to austerity.

    If entire sectors are caught short as has occurred with Qantas and transport on tourism generally and lock downs become more stringent on top of it, how are people going to buy essentials or travel to pick up packages for primary needs from food barns etc?

    Seems a nasty mess brewing to me, can someone reassure me, given my ignorance of such things?

    If Prof. Quiggin correct about the need for a little more of socialism or at least its mentality, you can be forgiven, given the “selfy”, furtive and grasping outlook of the government and its confrateres and string pullers, based on accumulated evidence?

    And who will ensure that “socialism” extends beyond to corporate and agrarian socialism to those actually in need of primary help?

    Will it happen?
    I suppose stranger things have happened.

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