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John Quiggin 
As US presidential count looms, I’m in brace position.
Good to see Anastasia is back. She sounds like a caring person. Its very sad that commercial radio especially 2gb Sydney continually attacked her everyday. They said some really mean things. I often listen because its important to ‘listen to the enemy’. Today they are still trying hard to attack her.
It seems that some smaller parties are learning how to geographically target areas, both The Greens in inner Brisbane and the Katter party in north Queensland. Palmer and One Nation both had unfocussed and ineffective statewide approaches that made very little impact.
Anybody who is interested can find a compilation of information about elections at this URL:
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/
Included is a list of dates of recent and coming elections, which you have prompted me to check. I noticed that the election in Burma/Myanmar is scheduled for 8 November; that will be interesting.
First, the Queensland election. Yes, congrats to Anastasia and team. A safe pair of hands to keep people safe from the pandemic and this keep the economy mostly open. Near-elimination plus rigorous contact tracing works as every economist and every epidemiologist worth their salt predicted from the beginning. Near-elimination saves lives AND the economy. Letting-it-rip does the converse and leads to indefinite yo-yoing lock-downs. We are seeing the incontrovertible proof of this around the world.
The trouble with idiots like the 2GB crowd is that they are really too ignorant to know how idiotic and obnoxious they are. Their double-standards are nauseating. Imagine if Anastasia had gotten embroiled in what the NSW Premier became embroiled in: clear conflicts of interest, failure to declare and hundreds of milllions of grants without a paper or electronic trail (all paper and emaisl destroyed. That’s a clear case to answer but becaiuse the NSW Premier is a LIberal she gets a free pass from the Sydney establishment and the Morrison government. As I say, sickening double standards.
NB. I am not saying Anastasia and the Qld ALP are perfect: Their coal mining position is atrocious. They need to work on ways to wean the north off the coal cargo cult.
Second, the U.S. election. I hope Biden wins. That’s a bit like saying I hope a 6ft bull shark attacks me rather than an 18ft great white. Only a landslide Biden win will save the U.S. from an immediate catastrophe. A Trump win or a contested Biden win will tear America apart. Even a Biden win will change little. He is still mostly a neoliberal capitalist supporter as are the Democrats other than the uninfluential grassroots.
It would take another revolution to change the U.S.A. the way it needs to be changed. I mean either a voting revolution or something more. I can’t see it happening though. Neoliberalism will continue to rule and destroy the West, in all likelihood. The blind selfishness and incompetence of the Western elites is astonishing as is the seeming lunacy and misguidedness of the people. Let’s hope the people can find their strength, solidarity and good sense again. Otherwise, quite frankly, we are doomed.
Ikonoclast,
You state: “I am not saying Anastasia and the Qld ALP are perfect: Their coal mining position is atrocious. They need to work on ways to wean the north off the coal cargo cult.”
Queensland, Victoria and NSW need to get off coal and gas. If they don’t plan for it, then it will be forced upon the affected regional communities.
Posted yesterday, Michael West begins with:
“Hundreds of communities across Australia are hurtling towards the coal and gas cliff as politicians obsess over Cartier watches and pandemic politics. Michael West reports on the spectre of plunging demand for fossil fuels and the savage effects it will reap on regional communities.”
See: https://www.michaelwest.com.au/asleep-at-the-wheel-why-australias-emissions-policy-debacle-puts-hundreds-of-communities-at-risk/
Both Labor and the LNP are in denial.
but judging by the number of panels going up all over the place everyone(ish) else is not.
what do you think our chances are of a grid capable of handling intermittent flow?
whatever the model is you can bet the “kicknscratch conservatives” will do an NBN on it.
cheaper,better,faster.
where’s Bradbury when you need him.
I am hoping for a Biden landslide so we get to see the Republicans eat themselves .Looks like it will happen .Hopefully the Republicans will overreact and think there is no future in fascist politics. A lot of work needs to be done to fix their broken ,embarrassing democracy – it may not be possible . They ,and we all ,need to reflect on how this all came about – a story that begins decades ago .Democrat control of all 3 branches of government would be good. Right now even a Biden can beat Trump. They are very lucky to have this chance to get rid of their demagogue ,Trump is incompetent but even he would win if it were not for the virus – think about that . Its scary how hard a competent Fascist can be to remove. Just as we dislike losing money more than we like gaining it ,fear is a better motivator than hope. Its a big country with alot of good people but I care more about its effect on the rest of the world than I do about Americans themselves , after all they are only about 4% of the worlds people ,have taken the lions share of the worlds bounty ,and have done plenty of damage themselves .They need to shore up international institutions before they complete the process ,greatly accelerated by Trump, of stepping down as world leader .
I just dont see how some supporters can bring themselves to vote for him .His supporters all seem to acknowledge his obvious significant character flaws .Only an existential threat could get me to support someone like that, no matter what they promised me ,so I assume thats how his supporters feel . Anti abortionists think he might save 100,000 lives so I understand that ,I can even understand the White Nationalists (misplaced) existential fear , but i fail to understand the support of the bulk of his base who just want tax cuts and slashing of regulations – there cant be that many sociopaths around.
There are hundreds of times more small arms in private hands than US military and law enforcement have in total .General civil unrest ,terror plots , plus 3 or 4 or 5 Waco type situations going on at once will stretch resources .99% of military assets would be useless against civilians. Trump has no limits .
Iko, re “Yes, congrats to Anastasia and team. A safe pair of hands to keep people safe from the pandemic and this keep the economy mostly open.”
As premier she could do no other than be in the spotlight feigning authority for the situation as she has, or hide away in the shadows shifting responsibility.
Credit where credit is due.
As deputy premier and Qld health minister, Milne, made clear a few weeks ago, the Qld system at law in responding to declared emergencies puts management squarely with the relevant authority, in this case with health department bureaucrats, particularly the CMO having final say in decision making. He was at pains to contrast this with the NSW situation where he said the legalities there gave politicians the final say. He said this in deflecting loud criticism made by the mexican LNP rabble of Queensland’s border restriction policies
Credit belongs to the CMO in Queensland! And to prior legislators for such law.
OTH, who legislated for Qld politicians in emergency situations having adverse outcomes to have such a neat blame shifting option?
The joys of a unicameral legislature, and with four years of yet more wonderment locked in just beginning!
Svante,
Parliament makes the Laws. Laws on the books can be remade by new Parliaments. Annastacia Palaszczuk and the Labor Party have run the state since 2015. They could have re-made the law in question but did not, according to your account. Good governments leave good laws on the book. Credit is due for not wrecking what already works as well as making new things that work. If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. Credit is also due for taking expert advice. I am sure there were still large areas of Ministerial discretion in the application of such law.
The (state) health buck stops at Annastacia Palaszczuk’s desk. If she had messed up, I would been among her first and most trenchant critics, believe me. She didn’t mess up this crisis so she gets the bouquets just as she would have got the brickbats if the case had been reversed.
US election links, for politics junkies planning on following the results as they come in.
The go-to guy on turnout and early voting (97.7m at latest count) is Michael McDonald of Florida U: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html. He does not read these astonishing numbers as a Biden wave. 538 have a comprehensive guide to the timetable for each state and likely delays: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing
My take from these is that if Biden performs as the polls say or better, he will get an early win in at least one of the competitive Sunbelt states: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and (a bit later) Arizona, all of which count fast. If that happens, it’s all over for Trump. But if it’s close, the decision shifts to the Rustbelt states lost by Clinton: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. These count slow, allowing the GOP to gin up lawsuits to stop the count of late mailed votes. In that case, the result won’t be known on the night, may take weeks, and isl likely to end up in the hacked Supreme Court. So let’s pray for the former.
Mood music for the gaps when nothing is happening
If Trump wins, it’s more or less up with Middle Earth: Sauron has got the Ring. I can only suggest booze and Schubert’s despairing Winterreise.
If Biden wins, as I (who?) and Charlie Cook (top expert) expect, it could be anything from a cliffhanger to a wipe-out. I leave the cliffhanger side-orders to you. But let’s be prepared too for the Blue Wedding.
Some suggestions for celebrating a triumph, along with better booze. Amp up the volume and the neighbours will have to live with it.
The Triumphal March from Aida https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzRYXoeD2fs
Conan the Barbarian, “What is best in life” https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=6PQ6335puOc
The Ents take Isengard https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8WyXv7hQvE
Garryowen and the 7th Cavalry (Errol Flynn perfect as the narcissistic Custer) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMAZXLF1FK8
The Corries: “Hey Johnnie Cope” (Jacobite victory at Prestonpans in 1745). There is SFIK no cheerful music on either side celebrating Culloden. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlyCSlAYECA
The Battle on the Ice from Eisenstein’s Alexander Nevsky https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcPixaWL2Pg (27 minutes)
More Eisenstein: Red Guards storm the Winter Palace (complete fiction, with subtitles in Dutch) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=riOLSslKvxU
If Biden wins Georgia, Marching through Georgia https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-jtYT5COvU
If Biden wins Texas, theme song from John Wayne’s “The Alamo” (1960) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FUBksAIpN0I (OK, it was a defeat, but in the legend it enabled a victory)
And of course the Battle Hymn of the Republic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jy6AOGRsR80
The USA is now the second most important nation on earth. I hope people realize that. China has sailed way past the USA in terms of economic and scientific power and development. The USA is a crumbling wreck by comparison, albeit it maintains a large stock of conventional and nuclear military force. Indeed, the USA is very top heavy and because of that and other reasons its economic and social foundations are crumbling. It’s the old guns or butter argument. The USA’s force structure and its geostrategic overreach are at a level which it cannot maintain and this is rapidly wrecking the USA.
In the next ten years, I expect the USA to crumble like the Soviet Union did, at least in some respects. It probably will not lose territory as Russia did but it will ose a lot of national cohesiveness and suffer a serious relative, and possibly even absolute, economic decline. At the end of that it will be much weakened as Russia is today but will still possess at least 6,000 operable nuclear weapons just as Russia does. The nuclear stalemate should continue.
Looking at the USA, China and Russia we see all three superpowers are oligarch or dictator run. A democratic renaissance in the US would be a good thing. However, is it genuinely likely even if Biden wins? No, the US will most likely remain a (crumbling) corporate-oligarchic state. Next come the limits to growth and massive climate change damage. Objectively, mankind’s predicament looks self-inflicted and all but hopeless. Elections can at best only determine whether national and global collapse will be swift or protracted.
Ikonoclast,
You state: “The USA is now the second most important nation on earth. I hope people realize that. China has sailed way past the USA in terms of economic and scientific power and development.”
All economic development requires access to affordable, abundant energy. Nothing happens without energy.
The US economy has grown to where it is now primarily due to access to cheap petroleum oil. Coal and gas have also helped, but petroleum has been THE premier energy resource. The evidence I see suggests the days of global cheap oil supplies are numbered, perhaps reduced substantially further by the COVID pandemic affecting new global petroleum discoveries and developments.
Posted several hours ago was a tweet by petroleum geologist Art Berman, stating:
“U.S. crude oil & condensate production may fall below 6 mmb/d in 2021 because rig count is 35% of what is needed to maintain current output levels.”
It includes a stacked graph of US conventional, deep water and tight oil production from Jan 2000 to present and a forecast into 2021.
Will US oil demand stay suppressed, or increase? Either way, the US is likely to be importing more oil next year, or drawing down on its Petroleum Strategic Reserve (SPR), or both. But is there enough long-term foreign import capacity available to make up any shortfall between supply vs demand?
Meanwhile, Asian oil consumption is around 5 times more than production.
China’s oil production peaked in 2015. For China to grow further, more oil imports are required. Where are they going to come from?
See an analysis beginning: https://crudeoilpeak.info/peak-oil-in-asia-update-june-2020-part-1
Elections won’t change the reality of inevitable declining global oil supplies.
I’d suggest no politician would be elected advocating that we must learn to live with less – most constituents still want to be deluded by the “jobs and growth” message.
Geoff Miell,
Many real world variables in play. Humans are less in charge of their personal and species fate than they think. We love to obsess over elections (which are important of course) but pay far too little attention to ecological and renewables policy. The two party duopolies do what the donating elites tell them to anyway. No matter who wins in the USA, they will still get a corporate, neoliberal puppet. It will be business as usual leading to collapse. The West will collapse first, most likely. It’s completely white-anted by neoliberal capitalism. China faces collapse from stripping its own environment faster than the West is stripping its environment.
I’m adding here the further observations which I’ve included in a comment on your open election discussion thread at crookedtimber (not yet cleared moderation at time of writing this).
Obviously the elections in Burma are not as important for the people of the world as the US elections are, but they are probably still more important for the people of Burma. Also, Burma may serve at this juncture as a salutary reminder of two points: one, no matter how bad things are now in the US, they could be worse; two, they could get worse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W79zs-DPgvA
and bit of country
(curse you bluddy ad)
Quite a lot of Americans are saying that they won’t vote because both choices are bad. However, when both options are bad, you should choose the least worst, as far as you can assess that. For example, if losing a game of chess and all moves at certain junctures are bad, then it is usually possible to find “least worst” moves which prolong the game and may allow you to escape with a draw. Americans should choose the least worst option, Biden and the Democrats, and hope like blazes that they can save some worthwhile vestiges of their country and society. It’s not going to be easy. The US is in a very parlous state.
Well, if we going to those two kinds of music, “Country” AND “Western”, then lets have a good parody!
Ikonoclast, re “Good governments leave good laws on the book.”
You missed the point. It’s bad law that’s why it’s been left on the books. It allows the government/pollies to have it both ways on responsibility. The weight rests on the bureaucrat who can’t similarly duck and shove or seek accolades according to how things go. The polly can hide behind and/or shift responsibility and/or blame upon the bureaucrat or step out and take credit and claim praise. In the case I mentioned, one of several in Qld over the course of the covid-19-pandemic so far, deputy premier Miles used the trick to distance/remove his government from any responsibility/blame for border closures. But then, another day, another presser, they attack the LNP mexican rabble and position themselves as being in charge of the show and clearly seek credit for that stance. The Qld bureaucrats just have to wear it from the pollies sweet legal setup whichever way the polly wind blows: some small recognition and credit if things go well, or huge recognition and all the blame if things don’t go so well. The pollies at their choice artfully get the best of it both ways. The law Miles referred to is clearly a nonsense aimed at enabling pollies to dupe the public. It’s a classic.
When was the USA last not waging war on some place and in doing so more often than not both committing crimes against humanity and war crimes for profit? Has Trump begun another war for the imperium’s elite? Would Biden begin one? I think it safe to say Trump hasn’t and would likely not in future whereas Biden would easily. So sad. It could be the best outcome would be democrat house and senate and Trump presidency. That might buy us all two or even four more years without great risk of being slaughtered, and also buy the current planetary climate system some sorely needed additional time too…
Pretty much in agreement with Ikonoclast and think some have misread this writer.
Against all hope I’d hope that the US red state public and to some extent the liberal capitalists who are also often delusional, can break through the collective inward looking exceptionalist/escapist psychosis this election and of course recall the old axiom that such a country is a dictatorship controlled by one or other of two competing factions ( beneath all the window dressing).
It IS true that Prof. Quiggin commented effectively on the QLD election at another brief posting here, discussing the perfectly reasonable concept that the Greens and Labor should aim for a rapprochement based on an understanding of the rational basis of environmental truth claims on the one hand, against pressures from big business and monetisers within Labor itself, that work for “development at any cost” out of ignorance and arrogance, with false consciousness myopic venality too much in play re things like deforestation and the Darling so called water policies.
OTH, the Greens MUST understand that while the public is sold on consumer fetishism, at not time soon will mainstream politics, including Labor, buck huge money and power formations who ramp up fear in an information vacuum, concerning a truism that rational economics and ecology and not binary.
Not quite a landslide
I have been predicting a Biden-DEM landslide – 330-359 electoral college votes, with $3k skin in this game. The longer Trump has mishandled the Covid / recession, the longer I have gone on Biden.
After a rethink, and another look at the polling data, I predict he race will be closer, 300-329 votes. I will have to hedge the landslide bet.
Trump was toast as far back as 2018. The Blue Wave that swept the DEMs into HoR dominance was “Demography is Destiny” with a vengeance. That wave swells by the day. It will eventually crash on the shores of the US polity in the form of the Emerging Democratic Majority – a DEM one-party dominant state ie Californication of US government.
But Trump has made the REPs bad situation worse. Using an updated version of my “Five P model” (TM) – in May 2015 it predicted a REP victory in 2016 – let me count the ways the electorate loves Trump not. Hereunder a ten point check-list spelling out how the 2020 REPs are objectively worse off than the 2016 REPs.
Demography is Destiny: The legacy nation (Caucasian race, Christian religion and Constitutional rule) continues to evolve (by immigration and conversion) into a novelty nation (non-Caucasian race, non-Christian religion and non-Constitutional rule). Trumps voting catchment area (white working class Christians) dwindles and ages, going from 45% to 41% of those eligible to vote.
Pandemic poisons politics: Trumps mishandling of the covid pandemic hit his supporter base hard, killing many white geezers in “flyover country”. This did not enhance his appeal as a strong man who protects his people from “American Carnage”.
It’s the Economy, stupid: The economy keeps getting swamped by successive Covid waves. And Trump bungled his stimulus. The Ray Fair macroeconomic model predicts a landslide for Biden.
Personnel is Policy: Trumps cabinet administration has been a shambolic farce. The turnover of officials from Secretaries down has been the worst in the post Cold War era. The comparison with the Obama admins cool competence is striking.
Show business for ugly people: Trumps narcissistic personality is repellent to all except his followers. Biden’s essential decency is a blessed relief by comparison
The Empire Strikes Back: The US Establishment is utterly united in its hatred and contempt for Trump – the MSM (duh!), Pentagon, Silicon Valley, Hollywood, the Ivy League even Wall Street. The Deep State promoted two movements to impeach Trump. It will not be blind sided by Russian interference this time around.
Failure to Launch: Trump is a fake populist. He has largely abandoned his populist program in favour of Republican establishment priorities. There has been little or no nationalist movement on immigration, trade and foreign policy. The Wall is unbuilt, the trade war with China has flopped and the Pentagon continues its endless wars in the Middle East. The only policies he has got through have benefited the donor class. His base has little reason to get out and vote.
Always playing Catch up: Trumps political machinations look amateurish compared to Pelosi and Schumers Machiavellian maneuvers. Replacing Bannon with Kushner was a fatal error.
Follow the Money: The DEMs have crushed the REPs in campaign finance. Trump has not received the free “smash mouth” publicity he got in 2016.
Eat your Greens: The DEM machine has pushed the Greens off presidential ballot in numerous states Thus preventing vote siphoning to their Left.
In psephological theory these factors must make a difference. And in polling practice they do, with Biden enjoying a landslide lead of 6%+.
There is strong early voting suggesting that “the baseball bats are out” and that Trump is going down hard. Undecideds will go against incumbent, as per usual, just to stop all the argy bargy.
I could be wrong – I reckon a 10% chance of that. There is some chance that the “shy Trump voters” theory is true, masking the extent of nationalist support for Trump ie “my candidate, right or wrong”. I don’t think this theory is true based on the fact that the polling support for generic Congressional REPs pretty much tracks support for Trump. Why be shy about a generic REP? More on that later.
A few points:
1. The legacy nations were the American native peoples.
2. The so-called Christians were the Spanish, English and French explorers, colonists and slavers.
3. These European Christians were extremely savage to the native peoples and to each other and the native peoples replied in kind when they could, albeit allowing for ever-shifting alliances.
4. The first colonists of modern Texas through to California and right up to San Francisco, at least, were the Spanish. Thus latinx people with some native peoples admixture colonized this swathe of America.
5. These lands were part of Mexico and USA took them in the the Mexican–American War, “also known in the United States as the Mexican War and in Mexico as the Intervención Estadounidense en México, was an armed conflict between the United States and Mexico from 1846 to 1848.”
A fascinating book is “The Course of Empire” by Bernard Devoto. Well worth reading to get an idea of the exploration and colonization of meso- and North America by the Spanish, English and French and South America by the Spanish and Portuguese predominantly. The genocide of native Americans was large event, “In 1491, about 145 million people lived in the western hemisphere. By 1691, the population of indigenous Americans had declined by 90-95 percent, or by around 130 million people.” It’s thought that 500,000 Australian indigenous peoples died during our colonization of Australia.
These levels of genocide and the building of empires and nations on spilled blood, stolen lands and expropriated treasures does leave an historical mark and a dark re-emergent beast in the collective modern psyche. This mark and the “beast” (without intending religious overtones) is one of embedded racism, arrogance, callousness, unearned wealth, entitlement, exploitation and institutionalized inequality. Some of us are still paying for our forebears’ sins in a karmic kind of way. The deaths of those poor, white modern geezers occur due to their own false consciousness and the institutionalized inequality, violence, racism and ignorance which seep through American, and even Australia society, to this day. As well as dupes, the poor, white modern red-neck geezers are also victims of the callous disregard of the rich elites for the poor, no matter what their skin color.
(Quotes from Wikipedia.)
Svante,
You state: “Has Trump begun another war for the imperium’s elite?”
Didn’t Trump order targeted military strikes in Syria in 2018?
See: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/13/trump-to-address-the-nation-about-syria-nbc-news.html
You then say: “Would Biden begin one? I think it safe to say Trump hasn’t and would likely not in future whereas Biden would easily.”
What do you base that on, Svante? Evidence/data/analysis please – not feelings.
You then opine: “It could be the best outcome would be democrat house and senate and Trump presidency. That might buy us all two or even four more years without great risk of being slaughtered, and also buy the current planetary climate system some sorely needed additional time too…”
Save “us all two or even four more years” so that we/humanity can then all be ‘locked-in’ to the escalating existential threat of catastrophic climate change in the decades to come? I’d suggest you are engaging in short-term thinking on your apparent perceived but as yet unsubstantiated threats if Trump loses, and heavily discount the longer-term inevitable escalating existential threats from humanity’s inaction on climate change.
Some of the world’s leading climate scientists have warned the US Presidential election is a “make or break” vote on global warming. Professor Michael Mann, a leading climate scientist based at Pennsylvania State University said (from time interval 01:06):
“I’ll be blunt – this is a make or break election for climate change. Dangerous climate change has arrived, and at this point it’s simply a matter of how bad we’re willing to let it get.”
See: https://www.facebook.com/CBSNews/videos/355485615876461/
If the world delays ambitious action on climate change mitigation until 2025, then the world would then need to reduce GHG emissions by 15% year-on-year to avoid catastrophic warming – perhaps an impossible task, and thus it would likely be ‘game over’ for human civilisation later this century.
Trump says climate change is a “hoax” and won’t do anything. Biden says he will act if he becomes President. Who do you think is the bigger threat?
Geoff,
1.” Didn’t Trump order targeted military strikes in Syria in 2018?”
– Not a new war. Not one he began. (He later certainly should have stuck with protecting the Kurds and others in northern Syria, imo…)
2. “You then say: “Would Biden begin one? I think it safe to say Trump hasn’t and would likely not in future whereas Biden would easily.”
What do you base that on, Svante? Evidence/data/analysis please – not feelings.”
– Clearly Trump has begun no new wars. If you know of one please tell (a few assassination casualties let alone the bau “reprisal” assassinations he cancelled don’t count).
Biden would be a democrat president. They’ve always begun wars, big ones, illegal ones, and nasty little ones, for profit, every one of ’em without fail for ninety-some years. Biden is an unreformed-DNC patsy, and so is beholden to both Wall St’s MIC operations and the dominant Clintonite war profiteer democrat party powerbase. Biden loves war and it’s “glory” as seen in his reflexive begging-the-question-when-asked-a-question deflections to his war hero son. Biden has never voted against beginning war. Never. Biden has never seen a potential US war he didn’t like and has always taken an opportunity to speak out in support of those he did. Biden as VP never spoke out against Obomber’s wars – quite the opposite. Biden will continue with his long apparent mind set, and in addition easily without any qualms do what he’s told and begin war(s). There will be new US war begun under a Biden presidency.
3. “You then opine: “It could be the best outcome would be democrat house and senate and Trump presidency. That might buy us all two or even four more years without great risk of being slaughtered, and also buy the current planetary climate system some sorely needed additional time too…” (…)Save “us all two or even four more years” so that we/humanity can then all be ‘locked-in’ to the escalating existential threat of catastrophic climate change in the decades to come?”
– Climate! You may not have heard of nuclear winter. It terrifies most who understand the term, however in sick important places not sufficiently so as to rule its occurrence out. Ongoing US wars and US proxy wars vastly increase the danger of nuclear winter’s occurrence. The electoral outcome mooted above would mitigate against such newly begun US war making for as long as it held which would be at least until the next mid-terms in 2 years following. If the democrats wanted to push a Trump presidency into war in the meantime through legislative process they’d surely not have sufficient time.
So, yes, save us all from dreadful slaughter and the planetary environment, let alone its climate system, from an unavoidable catastrophic aftermath for probably another four years. Be thankful for small mercies!
4. “I’d suggest you are engaging in short-term thinking on your apparent perceived but as yet unsubstantiated threats if Trump loses, and heavily discount the longer-term inevitable escalating existential threats from humanity’s inaction on climate change.”
– No, Geoff, it is you who doubt the power of the proposed legislature under democrat control in both houses to go around any continuing Trump presidential climate related obstacles – if they’re genuine about dealing with escalating existential climate threats, if they actually try it on. So, again yes, this mooted electoral outcome would more likely than not see a huge turn around in US federal (and states) policy, law, and implementation despite what a continuing Trump presidency might still want to do in the space.
Possibly as much as four years good progress in dealing with climate matters in addition to a continued block on war making from the presidency! No too bad. The reverse situation of a Biden presidency with republican controlled legislature is as much a horror scenario on all counts as a Trump presidency with with republican controlled legislature with no winners either way other than the very rich for now.
Sadly, Trump is going to win. Expect the short or long collapse now. It’s all over. Farewell. misnamed homo sapiens.
As some of us predicted, it’s all boiling down to the rustbelt states again- in particular Michigan, Pennysylvania and Wisconsin.
Pennsylvannia appears to be going to Trump again (and at the very least, will be subject to rounds of litigation if it flips Democratic).
Biden can lose there, and still reach 270 to win, provided he picks up Wisconsin, where he’s trailing but may pull it out based on where ballots are coming from, AND Michigan, where Biden is trailing by a much larger margin.
*Some may recall that a group Trump supporters were recently arrested in plot to kidnap and kill Michigan’s Democratic governor.
Svante,
You state: “Biden would be a democrat president. They’ve always begun wars, big ones, illegal ones, and nasty little ones, for profit, every one of ’em without fail for ninety-some years.”
What war was started by Democratic President Clinton (January 20, 1993 – January 20, 2001)?
Democrat President Obama inherited the ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan started by Republican President George W Bush (January 20, 2001 – January 20, 2009). Are you blaming Obama for that?
It seems to me you are showing your pro-Republican biases, ignoring some inconvenient truths.
I’d suggest Republican Presidents can be warmongers too.
Reagan and the Iran–Contra scandal.
George H W Bush and the invasion of Panama, and Gulf War I.
You state: “Climate! You may not have heard of nuclear winter. It terrifies most who understand the term, however in sick important places not sufficiently so as to rule its occurrence out.”
I’ve certainly heard of “nuclear winter”. Wikipedia says:
“In a regional nuclear conflict scenario where two opposing nations in the subtropics would each use 50 Hiroshima-sized nuclear weapons (about 15 kiloton each) on major population centers, the researchers estimated as much as five million tons of soot would be released, which would produce a cooling of several degrees over large areas of North America and Eurasia, including most of the grain-growing regions. The cooling would last for years, and, according to the research, could be “catastrophic”.”
Have you heard about Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), Svante? Perhaps that’s why nukes haven’t been used in anger since the Nagasaki bombing? NO ONE WINS – Everyone loses. What makes you think Biden would use nukes?
You also state: “No, Geoff, it is you who doubt the power of the proposed legislature under democrat control in both houses to go around any continuing Trump presidential climate related obstacles – if they’re genuine about dealing with escalating existential climate threats, if they actually try it on. So, again yes, this mooted electoral outcome would more likely than not see a huge turn around in US federal (and states) policy, law, and implementation despite what a continuing Trump presidency might still want to do in the space.”
What makes you think BOTH houses (US Congress & Senate) will be under Democratic control during a 2nd Trump term? I’d suggest you are dreaming. The US Constitution gives the President the power to veto Acts of Congress (originally intended to prevent the legislative branch from becoming too powerful), but that Presidential veto can be overridden by a two-thirds majority in both Congress and the Senate. A two-thirds majority is a high standard to meet.
See: https://www.archives.gov/files/legislative/resources/education/veto/background.pdf
It seems to me like four more years of US dithering and obstructionism on climate change (and also COVID-19) mitigation action with a second term of Trump – something that humanity (and other life) cannot now afford. 2025 will be too late.
See: https://insideclimatenews.org/news/19032020/denial-climate-change-coronavirus-donald-trump
Credit where credit is due: Pretty hard to blame Hillary’s rather limited personal charm now. Considering how utterly horrible Trump did in the last four years, a close win by Biden should be considered a worse candidate performance.
Geoff,
1. Svante,
“You state: “Biden would be a democrat president. They’ve always begun wars, big ones, illegal ones, and nasty little ones, for profit, every one of ’em without fail for ninety-some years.”
What war was started by Democratic President Clinton (January 20, 1993 – January 20, 2001)?”
– Bubba’s first strike on Libya saw the colonel take the fight to prima facie winning post colonial diplomatic/legal fights about redress. Killary finished that Clinton business with Obomber’s consent, and oh, look there’s oil. The attempted rape and subsequent cold/hot warring on Russia. The incitement of Kurds to wage war on Saddam from within the no-fly zone followed by immediate abandonment of Iraqi Kurds when Saddam rolled north. The long genocidal war particularly targeting Iraqi children. The strikes leading to civil wars in Sudan… operation Desert Fox… the mind begins to protectively glaze over when considering the extent and iniquity of the Clintons both Bubba and Killary… what’s DuckDuckGo say? duckduckgo.com/?q=wars+started+by+Democrat+President+Bill+Clinton&ia=web You could’a bet on it! Slick willie wasn’t formally at war for the period January 20, 1993 – January 20, 2001.
2. “Democrat President Obama inherited the ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan started by Republican President George W Bush (January 20, 2001 – January 20, 2009). Are you blaming Obama for that?
It seems to me you are showing your pro-Republican biases, ignoring some inconvenient truths.”
– Libya. Mali. Sudan. Syria. Yemen. Tens of thousands of “collateral damage” dead, destitute, and maimed in Obomber’s every Tuesday assassination attempts, “reprisals” and “pre-emptive” strikes on two continents. The civil wars and strife following his US faked “Arab Spring” instigated as part of US standing “long war” strategy to secure the US imperial interests in that regard in that region.
3. “I’d suggest Republican Presidents can be warmongers too.
Reagan and the Iran–Contra scandal.
George H W Bush and the invasion of Panama, and Gulf War I.”
– Surely just typical old chips off the old USA presidential block, same, same, of whichever purported stripe, though republican Trump is atypical. Republican Eisenhower was atypical but ineffectual.
3. “You state: “Climate! You may not have heard of nuclear winter. It terrifies most who understand the term, however in sick important places not sufficiently so as to rule its occurrence out.”
I’ve certainly heard of “nuclear winter”. Wikipedia says:
“In a regional nuclear conflict scenario where two opposing nations in the subtropics would each use 50 Hiroshima-sized nuclear weapons (about 15 kiloton each) on major population centers, the researchers estimated as much as five million tons of soot would be released, which would produce a cooling of several degrees over large areas of North America and Eurasia, including most of the grain-growing regions. The cooling would last for years, and, according to the research, could be “catastrophic”.””
– It doesn’t take much does it.
4. “Have you heard about Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), Svante? Perhaps that’s why nukes haven’t been used in anger since the Nagasaki bombing? NO ONE WINS – Everyone loses. What makes you think Biden would use nukes?”
– There is a reason for the acronym that just may have escaped you, Geoff. It’s certainly a mad idea to believe in. Biden subscribes to first use of nukes. Biden agreed with Obomber’s beginning the big spending ongoing upgrading of that arsenal in numerous crazy ways with that purpose foremost.
5. “You also state: “No, Geoff, it is you who doubt the power of the proposed legislature under democrat control in both houses to go around any continuing Trump presidential climate related obstacles – if they’re genuine about dealing with escalating existential climate threats, if they actually try it on. So, again yes, this mooted electoral outcome would more likely than not see a huge turn around in US federal (and states) policy, law, and implementation despite what a continuing Trump presidency might still want to do in the space.”
What makes you think BOTH houses (US Congress & Senate) will be under Democratic control during a 2nd Trump term? I’d suggest you are dreaming. The US Constitution gives the President the power to veto Acts of Congress (originally intended to prevent the legislative branch from becoming too powerful), but that Presidential veto can be overridden by a two-thirds majority in both Congress and the Senate. A two-thirds majority is a high standard to meet.
See: https://www.archives.gov/files/legislative/resources/education/veto/background.pdf”
– Not what I think, thought, nor wrote, but give me two thirds of a chance any day over none!
6. “It seems to me like four more years of US dithering and obstructionism on climate change (and also COVID-19) mitigation action with a second term of Trump – something that humanity (and other life) cannot now afford. 2025 will be too late.
See: https://insideclimatenews.org/news/19032020/denial-climate-change-coronavirus-donald-trump”
– I’m sure it does seem so to you. But if you want to talk about ditherers there are no better recent examples than the last two democrat executives when they had house and/or senate numbers also. It’s about what they do, not what they say… and who owns them. If it’s Biden with the senate watch and wait to see him talk the talk until the mid-terms after which he might try a little of the walking if the reps win then. A democrat/Biden war is a sure thing to happen aiding in that stalling process.
Some interesting numbers as of 8:00 pm AEDT
169,341 early/absentee ballots yet to be counted from Milwaukee.
Biden is down 107k in Wisconsin right now.
Biden net gains if Milwaukee ballots break:
90% Biden: 135k
85% Biden: 119k
80% Biden: 102k
75% Biden: 85k
70% Biden: 68k
65% Biden: 51k
60% Biden: 34k
Svante,
You state: “Surely just typical old chips off the old USA presidential block, same, same, of whichever purported stripe, though republican Trump is atypical.”
So, are you agreeing that it doesn’t matter what hue (blue Democratic or red Republican) US Presidents have been, they are much the same? I’d suggest Trump is no different when it comes to nukes.
From an AP article, dated Sep 22, headlined “Biden would push for less US reliance on nukes for defense”:
“Democrat Joe Biden leaves little doubt that if elected he would try to scale back President Donald Trump’s buildup in nuclear weapons spending. And although the former vice president has not fully detailed his nuclear priorities, he says he would make the U.S. less reliant on the world’s deadliest weapons.”
See: https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-nuclear-weapons-elections-joe-biden-russia-1299ae16f3f21db12e4a41ce2392a0f7
You also assert: “Biden subscribes to first use of nukes.”
Where has he said that? Links/references please. Yet on Sep 21, US PBS (and others) reported the opposite:
“During the campaign, Biden also has embraced what nuclear strategists call a “no first use” policy. In simplest terms, that means not initiating a nuclear war — not being the first to pull the trigger, so that in a nuclear crisis, the U.S. president might opt to unleash a retaliatory strike but not a preemptive one. Longstanding U.S. policy has been to reserve the option of striking first, arguing that this makes war less likely.”
See: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/biden-says-he-would-push-for-less-u-s-reliance-on-nuclear-weapons-for-defense
Trump’s Pentagon budget earlier this year bolsters nuclear weapons and weapons research. I’d suggest the evidence Trump is no different from other US Republican Presidents when it comes to nukes.
See: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-budget-defense-idUSKBN20428D
You also state: “Not what I think, thought, nor wrote, but give me two thirds of a chance any day over none!”
You still haven’t explained: What makes you think BOTH houses (US Congress & Senate) will be under Democratic control during a 2nd Trump term? I’d suggest it’s two-thirds of a very, very low probability, which means a very high probability that human civilisation collapses later this century due to catastrophic climate change.
You finish with: “A democrat/Biden war is a sure thing to happen aiding in that stalling process.”
I’d suggest the probability for geopolitical conflict is increasing no matter who gets into the White House. Next year, US oil and gas production will probably be down by around half of 2019 levels (see my comment above at NOVEMBER 3, 2020 AT 11:04 AM) regardless, and consequently oil and gas prices will likely rise. I’d suggest that will make many people unhappy.
Trump has demonstrated his ineptitude with COVID-19 and 238,656 people have reportedly died from it so far. Trump has stated he thinks climate change is a hoax and is enabling more fossil fuel projects, making climate change worse. Trump’s apparent ineptitude and divisionary incumbency has killed many people and his legacy will kill many more, perhaps contributing to ultimately billions of deaths later this century.
IMO, your fixation with Biden initiating a first-strike nuclear war has no evidentiary foundation.
Digressing just reading this and thought this is the sort of readership who might appreciate it:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-04/us-election-robocalls-urge-to-stay-home-received-by-australians/12848866
Geoff,
1. “Svante, You state: “Surely just typical old chips off the old USA presidential block, same, same, of whichever purported stripe, though republican Trump is atypical.” So, are you agreeing that it doesn’t matter what hue (blue Democratic or red Republican) US Presidents have been, they are much the same? I’d suggest Trump is no different when it comes to nukes.”
– Of course I’m not agreeing with all these words you’re trying so tiresomely hard to stick in my mouth! Anyways… what part of “atypical”” do you not understand Geoff? You suggested Reagan and the Iran–Contra scandal and George H W Bush and the invasion of Panama, and Gulf War I as examples of republican warmongers in a bit of whataboutery. I’ve no probs there other than your whataboutery, but the weak whataboutery hardly lets 90-some years of consistently warmongering democrat presidents off the warmongering hook! Now, again, what war has Trump begun in office? Have his actions re foreign war making shown him true to his prior campaigning commitments on it? FYI the answers to those questions are indubitably none, and yes. As to the spending on and the the insane repurposing of nukes, Trump had to continue what Obomber and Killary thought up and put in place.
2. “From an AP article, dated Sep 22, headlined “Biden would push for less US reliance on nukes for defense”:
“Democrat Joe Biden leaves little doubt that if elected he would try to scale back President Donald Trump’s buildup in nuclear weapons spending. And although the former vice president has not fully detailed his nuclear priorities, he says he would make the U.S. less reliant on the world’s deadliest weapons.”
See: https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-nuclear-weapons-elections-joe-biden-russia-1299ae16f3f21db12e4a41ce2392a0f7”
– That’s just bs, even without get outs like “try”, “not fully detailed” (something he has intimate knowledge of as the Obomber VP), and “says”. Trump hasn’t built up the nuke spending. He was bound to continue Obomber’s “refurbishing” program and spending on it. Biden’s “less reliant on the world’s deadliest weapons” means things like reliance on Obomber’s program of “refurbishing” some of the existing stock into lots of smaller tactical “usable” and “less deadly” field nukes, smaller icbm warheads but with their multiples increased in number and delivered at greater speed precision and accuracy, many more and fancier short and intermediate range smaller nukes, and on and insanely on. Putin has given them an answer to this several times, but no matter…
3. “You also assert: “Biden subscribes to first use of nukes.”
Where has he said that? Links/references please. Yet on Sep 21, US PBS (and others) reported the opposite:
“During the campaign, Biden also has embraced what nuclear strategists call a “no first use” policy. In simplest terms, that means not initiating a nuclear war — not being the first to pull the trigger, so that in a nuclear crisis, the U.S. president might opt to unleash a retaliatory strike but not a preemptive one. Longstanding U.S. policy has been to reserve the option of striking first, arguing that this makes war less likely.”
See: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/biden-says-he-would-push-for-less-u-s-reliance-on-nuclear-weapons-for-defense”
– Embraced? How? Just look at the guy’s full-on war mongering and pro preemptive war making record. If it’s always walked like a duck… etc, etc, and it’s in campaign mode… don’t believe it for a moment, just duck and cover.
4. “Trump’s Pentagon budget earlier this year bolsters nuclear weapons and weapons research. I’d suggest the evidence Trump is no different from other US Republican Presidents when it comes to nukes.
See: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-budget-defense-idUSKBN20428D”
– Dealt with already above. Geoff, suggest as you like, it’s all you seem able to do in addition to pick and twist..
5. “You also state: “Not what I think, thought, nor wrote, but give me two thirds of a chance any day over none!”
You still haven’t explained: What makes you think BOTH houses (US Congress & Senate) will be under Democratic control during a 2nd Trump term? I’d suggest it’s two-thirds of a very, very low probability, which means a very high probability that human civilisation collapses later this century due to catastrophic climate change.”
– Geoff it’s not what I think thought nor wrote. You apparently read what you want to see unaware of seeing what you want to see. I proposed it as an hypothetical possibility. I mooted it and the ramifications of such a possibility. I suggested IF it turned out that way, WITH a continuing Trump presidency, then that would be the better outcome for both us and the environment.
6. “You finish with: “A democrat/Biden war is a sure thing to happen aiding in that stalling process.”
I’d suggest the probability for geopolitical conflict is increasing no matter who gets into the White House. Next year, US oil and gas production will probably be down by around half of 2019 levels (see my comment above at NOVEMBER 3, 2020 AT 11:04 AM) regardless, and consequently oil and gas prices will likely rise. I’d suggest that will make many people unhappy.
Trump has demonstrated his ineptitude with COVID-19 and 238,656 people have reportedly died from it so far. Trump has stated he thinks climate change is a hoax and is enabling more fossil fuel projects, making climate change worse.” Trump’s apparent ineptitude and divisionary incumbency has killed many people and his legacy will kill many more, perhaps contributing to ultimately billions of deaths later this century.
– Not all probabilities are equal. In the range of probabilities under consideration here war making ranks higher under Biden as president than with Trump no matter the legislature compositions. The idiotic americans’ (thanks for the link Iko – good read) health system and other systemic failures have killed far more (That is not to excuse Trump over covid. It is only to say that that nation is a mind boggling utter stuff-up in so many ways, contributed to by so mind boggling many people there currently and historically.) Your fixation renders you blind to the possibility of how democrat legislatures with a Trump executive may render balance, restraint, and progress on ALL these grave issues more than Biden would with any possible composition of the legislatures.
7. “IMO, your fixation with Biden initiating a first-strike nuclear war has no evidentiary foundation.”
– Not a fixation of mine at at all. You have narrowed down to this all the war making options and beginnings available that Biden has always supported over a very long time. With Biden it is a high stakes higher probability than the alternative though.
Wasn’t expecting a landslide, nor even a safely declared victory for Biden, and then same again for a turn over of the senate to Democrat control. Maybe they get it, maybe they don’t.
During the past quarter of a century, the Republicans have intensified their targetting of people with grievance. It works, and they have succeeded in getting a couple of tame telly channels to perform the roles of cheer squad and echo chamber. Trump, if he can be said to have achieved anything, homed in on using real-time tweets and feedback from his tame telly channels, thus injecting a sense of the prez listening and speaking to the “little people.” or, the forgotten people, depending on your point of view. In any case, the Newt Gingrich experiment is in its end phase…whether it is with a tyrant at the helm, or simply an old white guy, remains to be seen.
Hi James,
thanks for the music suggestions! They look fantastic. Just now I am feeling a bit overwhelmed … and I am the politically calm one in my set (read, the best at denial). I was not expecting it to be this close ( … that’s the denial …)
Everyone, while you weren’t looking, developers are now allowed to “make a donation of $14,299 and no one will ever know”.^1.
I understand we are moths squinting and shouting at the current blinding election street light from the NOT united states.
But please, may we all now look for our keys at home, where we lost them, and your brains now be turned to;
– local politics,
– federal intergrity commision,
– bill of rights,
– duty of care,
… in Australia, ensuring we stop for example, this;
^1. “Why this is bad for integrity
If you are a property developer wanting to curry favour with the NSW Labor Party or the Queensland Liberal National Party, you are now allowed to make a donation of $14,299 and no one will ever know. All you need to do is tell the party the money is “for federal purposes”.”
https://theconversation.com/federal-parliament-just-weakened-political-donations-laws-while-you-werent-watching-149171
Svante,
You state: “I’ve no probs there other than your whataboutery, but the weak whataboutery hardly lets 90-some years of consistently warmongering democrat presidents off the warmongering hook!”
So, you are agreeing both Democratic AND Republican Presidents are warmongers?
Perhaps Democratic President Franklin D. Roosevelt (March 4, 1933 – April 12, 1945) was a reluctant warmonger? Many US merchant ships were being torpedoed and attacked by German submarines within sight of the US mainland (including the Gulf of Mexico) before the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor (on 7 Dec 1941). The US destroyer Reuben James was torpedoed and sunk by German U-552 on 31 Oct 1941, with loss of life. Weeks before, another US destroyer Greer was fired on by torpedoes without hitting from a U-boat. Only after the Pearl Harbor attack did Roosevelt ask Congress to declare war.
I’d suggest you are dismissing “whataboutery” because it is inconvenient to your argument that: “They’ve always begun wars, big ones, illegal ones, and nasty little ones, for profit, every one of ’em without fail for ninety-some years.” I’m saying the evidence shows Republican Presidents are much the same. Trump has already demonstrated he is deadly to his own people.
You also state: “I suggested IF it turned out that way, WITH a continuing Trump presidency, then that would be the better outcome for both us and the environment.”
And I suggested that’s a very low probability, with a much, much lower probability of BOTH Congress & the Senate having a two-thirds majority to override Trump so “that would be the better outcome for both us and the environment.” I think you are fantasizing about a highly improbable event.
You then state: “Not all probabilities are equal. In the range of probabilities under consideration here war making ranks higher under Biden as president than with Trump no matter the legislature compositions.”
Earlier, you were saying: “A democrat/Biden war is a sure thing to happen…” Now you are talking about “the range of probabilities”. What probability for Biden and for Trump? What evidence/data do you base that on, or is it just your ideology and emotions driving your thinking?
You state: “The idiotic americans’ (thanks for the link Iko – good read) health system and other systemic failures have killed far more…”
Trump has had four years. Trump has been trying to dismantle Obama’s health care program – IMO, trying to make the US health care system worse. As for your assertion that the “health system and other systemic failures have killed far more”, the evidence I see suggests that the Trump incompetently managed COVID-19 pandemic is giving it a red hot go, and it’s not over by a long shot – up to 204,691+ extra deaths in the US so far in this pandemic year.
See: https://theconversation.com/up-to-204-691-extra-deaths-in-the-us-so-far-in-this-pandemic-year-143139
By comparison, to put the magnitude of the COVID-19 threat in perspective, some stats of US deaths during wars and pandemics include:
Korean war: _ _ _36,574
Vietnam war: _ _ 58,220
1968 Pandemic: 100,000
WW1: _ _ _ _ _ 116,516
WW2: _ _ _ _ _ 405,399
1918 Flu: _ _ _ _675,000
See: https://fortune.com/2020/05/15/coronavirus-deaths-us-covid-19-death-rate-covid-19-more-than-korean-vietnam-gulf-afghanistan-iraq-wars-combined/
I would not be at all surprised if US deaths due to COVID-19 surpasses the WW2 deaths number next year. That’s only deaths – then there’s the ‘long COVID’ casualty numbers, which could ultimately be in the millions, that would be an ongoing burden on many families and the health care system. IMO, Trump has a lot to answer for, and it seems to me you want Trump in for a further four more years of more death, suffering and mayhem.
Trump’s administration through its incompetence has already demonstrated a contribution to hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths and likely contribute to many more (even if he loses the 2nd term). And you are more worried about what Biden ‘might’ do, based on what? An apparent irrational hatred of Democrats?
icono?
bewdy bottler!
where Did you find that!
Trump’s trying to steal the election now. So contemptible.
and
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/nov/04/australian-right-wing-conference-a-mix-of-triumphalism-and-despair-on-day-of-us-election
indoctrination of our schools?
to indoctrinate is the duty of all religious entities and is supported nationwide from the public purse.
Geoff,
“So, you are agreeing both Democratic AND Republican Presidents are warmongers?”
(Nope. It may be so. Except for Trump. So atypical. So it seems Not to be so. So no, yes? So silly. This.)
“Germans… US merchant ships”… (going where, carrying what, why?) … “Japanese”… (Who was it unilaterally goaded and blockaded the Japanese into an attack? Why?)
“Only after the Pearl Harbor attack did Roosevelt ask Congress to declare war.” (Very glib. Which war? War on who? Declared by who? When? What for? How come? Why was that?)
(More whataboutery. But still the same…) “I’d suggest you are dismissing “whataboutery”… (because it is” whataboutery actually, Geoff, and you are full of it.)
War… “I’m saying the evidence shows Republican Presidents are much the same.” (Excepting Trump.) “Trump has already demonstrated he is deadly to his own people.” (And how many of them and others have lived unafflicted by new and expanded US warring begun by Trump?)
“You also state: “I suggested IF it turned out that way, WITH a continuing Trump presidency, then that would be the better outcome for both us and the environment.”
(And I’m sticking with that. My opinion on an hypothetical.)
“And I suggested”… (You rather opined on hypotheticals, but actually on counterfactuals mostly.)
“I think you are fantasizing about a highly improbable event.” (By now I’m not surprised you’ve a rather weird idea of fantasy.)
“You then state: “Not all probabilities are equal. (they aren’t) In the range of probabilities under consideration here war making ranks higher under Biden as president than with Trump no matter the legislature compositions.” Earlier, you were saying: “A democrat/Biden war is a sure thing to happen…” (as in: you can bet on it) Now you are talking about “the range of probabilities”. (it’s all we have) What probability for Biden and for Trump? (all we have are perceived and calculated probabilities about any future event. My estimation of any future probability was less with Biden, more with Trump) What evidence/data do you base that on, or is it just your ideology and emotions driving your thinking?” (It’s often been found that the past is a guide when calculating future probabilities.. Keep on irrationally begging the question.)
“Trump has been trying to dismantle Obama’s health care program” (So named, but what has it to do with musing hypothetically specifically on the future probability of both a continuing absence of characteristic US war making, and future possible US government planetary heating preventative action?)
Sad to see, your stats of the mortality due US war making are out by many many millions. Crikey, they/you don’t even count their contracting hordes and proxies. Whodathunkit?! Add to that the unimaginable horrific extent of the morbidity resulting immediately and over generations.
“I would not be at all surprised”…(Which surprises me not at all.)
Biden pretty much won. No matter, that close election is a disaster. This time voter turnout was high and everyone must have noticed by now just what an incompetent non-stop lying erratic narcissistic authoritarian he is. This is not an accident, or manipulation by the usual sinister anti-democratic forces with their old playbook of Gerrymandering, voter suppression and money sacked propaganda alone anymore. Continuity of evil does not cut it anymore – there is a difference between the usual nationalist foreigners can be drone killed and tortured as we like national consensus and the we openly don’t give a fuck about anyone but ourselves let old people die etc disregard for anyone else within the nation.
A thought prompted by spending too many hours watching CNN’s US election coverage. The colour-coded maps of the states are all basically the same: blue islands (Democratic cities and suburbs) in a sea of red rural counties. This holds from Texas to Maine, irrespective of the overall political complexion of the state. This very strong and uniform pattern suggests to me that we need to need to dial down the explanations that the political divide is about racism or misogyny. Mainers may be racist (see Le Page), but it’s not likely to play an important part in their worldview or daily bebaviour, unlike Alabama. The pattern is equally insensitive to the gender of candidates – this damaged Clinton, mainly through lower turnout. The divide is even insensitive to actual policies. When polled, large numbers of US conservatives support something close to Biden’s positions on healthcare and climate change. So what is the divide about? We are left with rather unsatisfactory bromides about a sense of marginalization and anomie, as the heart of economic and cultural life shifts to services and networks based in big cities and university towns.
The only practical suggestion I can think of is to do something about the decline of small-town journalism, which has left rural communities prey to (big-city) propaganda networks like Fox and Sinclair. Social media and Zoom surely offer pathways to the revival of community media using now universal technology – the issue is to fund professional journalism again, probably tax-funded, not just unmoderated amateur gossip and rumours. This blog works because it (a) has a big enough amateur audience to generate lively discussion (b) is run by a paid professional, John Q. I know he is not actually paid to run the blog, and this form of outreach is barely recognized in promotion and salaries in academia, but the connection ensures professional standards in agenda-setting, seeding discussion in posts, and policing of trolls.
BTW, the blue revolution in the American suburbs looks permanent. In 2018 it was put down to healthcare, but this rarely featured in 2020, and the Karens still voted for Biden.
No landslide but somehow some are saying the total proportion of votes won nationally by biden might be within the polling margin for error. Media seems to think Biden headed for a narrow win with late ballots favoring him substantially. Its unfolding like a stress test for US society .Trump has been speaking of rigged mail in ballots and the need to protect democracy for ages ,calling for vote counting to stop on election day. Those who have known him say he does in fact know the difference between truth and lies ,a more worrying state to me than if he didnt . He is making a historic fool of himself ,hopefully he lives a long time so he suffers an extended humiliation .
Five 0 days in a row for Victoria now .
Svante,
“Except for Trump. So atypical.”
It may well be seen President Trump is responsible through his ineptitude in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic consequently killing more Americans than all other past US Presidents in their respective terms dealing with past wars and pandemics. That certainly would be “atypical”.
“The United States has set a one day record for coronavirus cases with 102,591 new infections, as hospitals in several states reported a rising tide of patients, according to a Reuters tally.”
See: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-05/us-sets-new-record-for-increase-in-covid-19-cases/12854110
The reported US daily COVID-19 death rate is now more than 1,100. JQ tweeted yesterday:
“US pandemic will be out of control by January. Even if Biden scrapes out a win, he won’t have the authority for the emergency response that’s needed. On track for a million deaths unless a highly effective vaccine arrives soon.”
You ask: “And how many of them and others have lived unafflicted by new and expanded US warring begun by Trump?”
The Trump story hasn’t finished yet. Who knows what dominoes have been set teetering by Trump? – time will tell. Trump’s inaction on climate change, relaxation of environmental laws, debasement of science and institutions, and encouragement of more fossil fuel projects for a nation that emits around 14% of global GHGs, may be the big dominos that are impossible to stop from falling that has the potential for being major contributors to unprecedented global suffering and deaths later this century. That certainly would be “atypical”.
There are people already suffering from climate change around the world, in part due to a continuum of US ineffective action, including Trump’s climate denial policies.
Excess death rates far exceed covid cases. The undercounting might also get worse. Florida has started to remove cases. In addition, current infections represent about a third of all cases. So a million is far less of dark future prognosis than one might think at first.
More people voted for Trump than in 2016 . The mask is off ,if Democrats cant win that in a landslide then America is lost .Too many Americans want an authoritarian leader . Still Australians assume that couldnt happen here but it already is. Its a process that began long ago .Conservatives played with fire to resist the democratic tide and hold onto power ,it didnt seem that harmful unless you were a member of one of the out groups. Too many people just went along with that ,they still do. Fascist politics is like a virus, it must be stamped out ,strangled at birth, or it can be away on you before you know it. That kind of politics is no answer for inequality.
@JamesW The fact that rural voters support conservative parties is a longstanding puzzle almost everywhere and has been since democratic elections began in the 19th century. The US has been, until recently, a partial exception because of a long tradition of rural populism and also because some rural districts are largely non-white (same as in NT and FNQ). It doesn’t have any real relationship to periods of rural depression or prosperity, and there is no obvious basis in self-interest – left parties already support lots of general policies that benefit low-income rural people and would happily throw in more specific measures if there was any political mileage in in it.