That’s the headline for a story based on an email interview I did with Yahoo News. Over the fold, the full Q and A.
- What are your predictions for NSW given the current numbers?
Assuming that Hazzard’s 25 000 cases a day estimate is correct, that 2 per cent are hospitalised and and average stay of 10 days, that’s 5000 people in hospital on any given day. NSW has 20700 hospital beds, so almost 25 per cent taken up with Covid
- What will this mean for hospitals?
This will clearly be too much for hospitals if close contacts are required to isolate. That would entail losing a substantial proportion of capacity, maybe as much as 25 per cent. Government has foreshadowed dropping isolation requirements, which would increase capacity, but also ensure lots more infection of vulnerable patients.
What is the risk of continuing to ‘let it rip’?
Every country that has tried “let er rip” has had disastrous outcomes, and all (except some Republican controlled states in US) have reversed course. Advocates here focused on Denmark’s decision to drop all restrictions in September. They are now back in nearly full lockdown
- Why do you think borders will close/ when would this happen?
If Perrottet continues to resist vax passports, encourage socialising etc, it will be impossible for other states to bring case numbers down. Pressure to reimpose border controls (or not lift them in case of WA) will increase
- If there was another lockdown when should NSW re-open?
Ideally, after a rapid rollout of boosters, return to effective contact tracing, reinstatement of vax passports. In practice, lockdown won’t happen until outcome is catastrophic, and end will be unpredictable.
- Why do you think ‘living with Covid’ is not a viable option?
Advocates of “living with Covid” imagine a steady and manageable number of cases. They don’t understand exponential growth. If cases rise 20 % per day (rate has been much higher recently), they will increase 100-fold in a few weeks.
- Do you think other states will follow NSW’s increase in cases?
Hard to say. Depends on avoiding superspreader events like New Years Eve celebrations, and rapid rollout of boosters
John Quiggin 
Aren’t we too going to shorten isolation time and testing?
Excuses for a scientist are hard to find so, blame / use behavioural science and human nature – persinal irresponsibility in this case. Guaranteed pandemic.
(The Jason Collins post certainly needs to be read by those here imo – nudge bias and bias bias).
^1. “In her Wednesday interview, Walensky [CDC boss] also cited “behavioral science” for the decision, saying about a third of people who catch the virus don’t isolate for the full length of suggested time anyway.”
^2. “But recently, the wind seems to have changed. We’re told that behavioural economics is itself biased.”
*
^1. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/cdc-director-explains-covid-isolation-period-5-days_n_61cc924fe4b0d637ae92b976
^2. https://www.jasoncollins.blog/arent-we-smart-fellow-behavioural-scientists/
Via…
“The hot hand and the nudgelords
Collins summarizes:
“This is a persistent characteristic of much applied behavioural science. . . . We spend too little time questioning our understanding of the decisions or observations other people make. If we believe they are in error, we should first question whether the error is ours.
“I would just add that the nudgelords triple down on their error when they ignore or evade criticisms of their work by other scientists …”
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/12/28/the-hot-hand-and-the-nudgelords/
*
Yes, I think the other states are alrady on NSW trajectory. 1:7 or 12-13% tested positive in NSW yesterday. That makes Re! big! -too damn high for any health service in mid to late Jan even with minimal loss of life.
The pandemic playbook is now in the hands of politics & profit & pentertainment “don’t spoil 12 tonnes of NYE fireworks display and bugger the future”.
(Yes 12 of fireworks in Sydney)
Pentertainment – pent up demand for entertainment.
In the UK the average hospital stay for omicron has dropped to 3 days, so 10 day stay is way too high. Also, the number of people in hospital due to covid has dropped from >50% of those testing positive, down to 20%. A lot of people in hospital ( now 80% ) testing positive for covid are incidental covid patients, they are there for something else.
Elsewhere, South Africa has basically said that unless you feel unwell, continue with your life as usual. UK, moving to that position as well, as is Israel.
If there is some chaos in Aus, it will mainly be due to overly restrictive isolation rules causing supply chain and other interruptions.
@JoeBlow Is that evidence, or did you just read it in the rightwing press “An analyst from JP Morgan has picked up on the LSHTM modelling and added in two assumptions of his own: firstly that the hospitalisation rate with Omicron turns out to be only 50 per cent of that of Delta and secondly that the average hospital stay falls from eight days to three days. “
@JoeBlow Is that evidence, or did you just read it in the rightwing press “An analyst from JP Morgan has picked up on the LSHTM modelling and added in two assumptions of his own: firstly that the hospitalisation rate with Omicron turns out to be only 50 per cent of that of Delta and secondly that the average hospital stay falls from eight days to three days. “
This thread is mildly encouraging for the UK situation, but the summary is still too early to say: https://twitter.com/ChrisCEOHopson/status/1475540046677790723 (from https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/12/28/omicron-post-10/)
John, I rarely read the right wing press. I mainly read free stuff – the Guardian, ABC, BBC and the Daily Mail ( for fun ). I also tend to read lapsed lefties like Glenn Greenwald and Freddie de Boer. My info comes from Dr John Campbells latest video. He is very reasonable and just presents the latest facts from the relevant authorities.
He also has an interesting presentation on the situation in South Africa – where the authorities are basically saying if you are asymptomatic you should get on with your life, no testing or isolation at all, unless you have symptoms. Australia also gets a mention around the 20 minute mark, as a real test of vaccine effectiveness. Here is the video
Essentially, omicron has been mild in South Africa and the population has quite a bit of natural immunity from past infection, with vaccination rates relatively low. The UK is also having fairly mild outcomes so far ( 80% of hospital patients testing positive for covid are in for other reasons and the covid is incidental ), with relatively high vaccination rates but also quite a bit of natural immunity from past infection.
Australia, on the other hand has virtually no natural immunity but very high vaccination rates, so it will be a real test ( almost unique ) to see what the outcome is. John Campbell believes things will be fine.
We appear to be following the USA in relaxing rules and definitions.
“Let this sink in—Delta Airlines first lobbied CDCgov to change #COVID19 isolation rules—got its way a few days later. Then Delta proceeds to further dilute the new lax CDC rules. And then Delta slashes sick leave for workers. Delta Airlines wants to make COVID great again.” – Eric Feigl-Ding.
This pattern of corporations and industry lobby groups running national COVID-19 policies is certainly repeated throughout the Anglosphere. I know less about Continental European countries so I will not comment on them.
“A new report titled “How The Koch Network Hijacked The War On COVID” reveals how a right-wing network linked to billionaire Charles Koch has played a key role in fighting public health measures during the pandemic, including mask and vaccine mandates, contact tracing and lockdowns. The groups include the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER), Donors Trust, the Hoover Institution and Hillsdale College. We speak about the contents of the report with co-author Walker Bragman, who says the right-wing network’s attack on public health is designed to “maintain corporate profit at the expense of human life.”” – Democracy Now!
https://www.democracynow.org/2021/12/23/koch_hijacked_war_on_covid
Clearly, corporations and business lobby groups are running our Covid-19 strategies. The capitulation of Australia to this shows a mass of circumstantial evidence at least. (Though no smoking gun that I know of yet.) Morrison returned from meeting Biden and Johnson and returned with the AUKUS deal. At about the same time Australian business called for opening up. Other lobbies from the Tourism industry to the farming lobby, immigration lobby and student industry lobby all called for the opening up of Australia. Morrison complied. Dan Andrews and Annastacia Palaszczuk caved in at about this time: just mysteriously caved in and gave up on everything they had worked hard for in relation to suppressing COVID-19.
Palaszczuk caved after she returned with the Olympics deal. My thinking is that both the AUKUS deal and the Olympic deal were contingent on iron-clad promises that Australia open up as demanded and required by global corporate business. Palaszczuk and Andrews were also no doubt threatened with both the withdrawal of Commonwealth funds and the withdrawal of corporate donations. There seems no other explanation for how easily they folded after previously fighting so hard.
It is now very, very clear that “the right-wing network’s attack on public health is designed to “maintain corporate profit at the expense of human life.” Does Australian public opinion support the current opening up with COVID-19 Omicron variant, does anyone know? If they support it now, I wonder if they will support it in 2 months time when the dimensions of the disaster become obvious. “Tens of thousands of cases” per day in Qld. alone as predicted by the Qld. Chief Health Officer.
This won’t help business or the economy or people. Everything will be hit hard. Geoff Miell asked on another thread:
“Are these business groups really that stupid, or is it deliberate sabotage?” It’s not either-or. They ARE that stupid and it IS deliberate sabotage. They think they can make more money while the economy tanks and people die. They may even succeed for a while. It is possible that key corporations and trans-nationals will make more money for a while, while the rest of the economy tanks and vulnerable people die. But in the long run, the damage will be so great that even the key Western corporations and trans-nationals will make less money both absolutely and in relation to China while China suppresses the virus.
Global deaths from Covid now are less than half of what they were at the earlier infection peak (April 2021) at around 7,000 daily. Total deaths from all causes are around 165,000 daily.
Infections from Covid are skyrocketing – they are 50% above the earlier peak (around December 2021) at 1.5 million per day and seem likely to go higher.
The virus is apparently contributing about 5% of all measured deaths although this is a vast overestimate given comorbidities. Most Omicron-based Covid infections are asymptomatic or mild although there remain fears that Omicron may have “long Covid” implications.
It’s much too early to engage in the blame game particularly since the pollies had no choices – those in NSW and Victoria would not endure more lockdowns. Sensibly, people should be encouraged to mask up, to avoid mass gatherings and to take their third booster shot. The hope is that the disease will become endemic but the path to this (via immunisation and infection) should be gradual.
People seem to think endemicity of a pathogen is the promised land. Make a disease endemic and everything will be alright, right? No! Wrong!!!
“Malaria is presently endemic in a broad band around the equator, in areas of the Americas, many parts of Asia, and much of Africa; in Sub-Saharan Africa, 85-90% of malaria fatalities occur. An estimate for 2009 reported that countries with the highest death rate per 100,000 of population were Ivory Coast (86.15), Angola (56.93) and Burkina Faso (50.66). ” – Wikipedia.
So, endemicity does not necessarily equate to benignity. It depends on the pathogen and its characteristics. Why people would think endemicity is the goal for COVID-19 is beyond me. Its characteristics are not nearly benign enough for us to regard its endemicity as relatively harmless to the population as a whole. Its characteristics are also in a great state of flux by which I mean mutations are still coming thick and fast.
To encourage or accept endemicity in these circumstances is the height of irresponsibility and foolishness. This disease is far too dangerous for that. A new variant more contagious than Omicron and with a much higher but more delayed lethality is possible. Is it likely? The answer is that we simply do not know. When there is so much still unknown why would we rush ahead to spread it endemically? The reasons are that people are using modes of thinking unsuited for dealing with this phenomenon.
People are confusing risk with uncertainty. Risk is where you know the probabilities or at least close probability ranges for the values of ALL important factors affecting your decision. Uncertainty is where you don’t know the probabilities or even all the factors or how they will change over time. The COVID-19 equation is riddled with radical uncertainty. Permitting spread to endemicity vastly multiplies the dangerous uncertainties we face.
“To understand real world ”non-routine” decisions and unforeseeable changes in behaviour, ergodic probability distributions are of no avail. In a world full of genuine uncertainty – where real historical time rules the roost – the probabilities that ruled the past are not those that will rule the future. – ” Lars P. Syll.
Saying that someone didnt die from Covid because they had another problem at the time of their death ,or that its presence is only incidental as far as the need to be in hospital goes, are far right talking points .Life expectancy has fallen by almost two years in the US due to covid .Everyone knows people who would be vulnerable . My brother ,for example, is on immune suppressing medication ,but at 50 years of age he is extremely fit and healthy . He can ride his pushbike up Mt Buffalo ,or for 100 km any day of the week .Most of my friends would have something that would complicate covid. With Delta at one point England was losing 600 disabled people per week to covid .Those who suffer and die the most are those with low market value but they are far from worthless .If a variant comes along that kills kids the let it rip crowd jump up and do something instantly.
Grrr, the lockdowns in NSW were a consequence of poor governance;
– Ruby Princess – 3 month lockdown
– one limo driver and flight crew – spread to Vic and NZ resulting in more lockdowns
– elimination of masks and QR codes – accelerated infection leading to all sorts of problems
It’s not early to apportion blame – early action – an ounce of prevention – would have avoided tonnes of cure.
On the topic of boosters, now that the horse has well and truly bolted and the disease is virtually endemic – what will be the next variant?
With such a large pool of infection to draw from the risk of another variant is increased – who wants to put a % on it?
Akarog,
Plenty will disagree here but the news is increasingly good. The omicron variant is so infectious that it won’t be outcompeted any time soon unless a new variant arises that enables immune escape. The news with that is also very good, with a new paper out from the top research organisations in South Africa ( not yet peer reviewed ).
This paper explains why people are getting sick with omicron, but way less likely to get really sick. The vaccines ( and natural immunity ) don’t provide effective antibody response after a time so people get infected, but importantly, the T and B cell response holds up pretty well, leading to a good longer term immunity to serious illness. This is important because the T and B cells seem to be very effective even with omicron, which has a lot of differences to earlier variants.
Much like the common cold actually.
Link here
Sunshine,
The fact that over 80% of people in hospital in the UK, that test Covid positive but are in for another reason, is not a ‘right wing talking point’, but just plain fact.
This is now widely understood. 4 months ago up to 100% of people in hospital with delta covid were there because of covid, not a broken leg. This is now down to 20% and falling.
Even more good news from South Africa – ground zero for omicron variant. The FUD from mainstream media and armchair experts in the face of evidence, is shameful.
Yes, take care and get a booster to increase waining antibody response, but it looks like the main problem will be supply chain problems – I include hospital operations here – caused by a lot of people getting sick and being forced to isolate for longer than necessary. This is changing rapidly.
I have banged on about the need for RAT for a year ( not here ) and got mostly blank looks or ‘oh no you can’t do that’ from various armchair experts, and now we have the ridiculous situation where tests that cost $2 ( Europe ) are going for $25. Not so long ago, in Australia, these tests HAD to be done by a registered nurse!
Stephen Duckett, director of the Health and Aged Care Program at the Grattan Institute, in The Guardian op-ed headlined ‘Complete collapse of leadership’: Australia’s recent Covid response amounts to world-class bungling, provides a scathing critique on Australia’s ‘leadership’. He says the mess we are in is the result of 3 factors:
1. Virus mutation;
2.0 World-class bungling with:
2.1 Vaccination procurement – too narrow, too slow;
2.2 Vaccination priority for vulnerable ignored from start;
2.3 Vaccination “strollout”;
2.4 Communication of vaccine advice and eligibility confusing and inconsistent;
2.5 COVID testing system overwhelmed;
3. Complete collapse of national leadership – “missing in action”.
Duckett says:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/30/to-safely-live-with-covid-australian-leaders-must-actually-work-cooperatively
The eastern States of Australia may have given up, accepting that COVID is endemic and that “we have to live with the virus”, but it seems to me Western Australia is maintaining an ‘isolate and eradicate’ approach. Time will tell who took the better path. Unfortunately, it seems many people will likely pay the ultimate price for this dangerous experiment.
And from Prof Adrian Esterman, chair of biostatistics and epidemiology at the University of South Australia, in an op-ed in The Guardian headlined Long Covid is the elephant in the room, but it seems invisible to Australian politicians, he says (bold text my emphasis):
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/30/long-covid-is-the-elephant-in-the-room-but-it-seems-invisible-to-our-politicians
Prof Adrian Esterman tweeted earlier today:
https://twitter.com/profesterman/status/1476683473159352322
A lesson in exponential growth is playing out right now!
The lessons on the longer-term impacts of long-COVID, to people’s lives and to economies, are still to come.
Grim indeed. 2022 is being celebrated with the abandonment of covid responses based on health advice. Perhaps using marketing lessons in how to claim governments take it seriously whilst assiduously working to protect commerce and industry from ambitious infection reductions policy. Lessons learned from dealing with expert advice on climate and emissions?
I suspect the one thing guaranteed to be worse than not giving commerce and industry what it wants is giving them what they want. Or what THINK they want, them assessing things on very narrow criteria that evade the bigger picture.
Actuarialeye.com estimates 150,000 cases per day in about 2 weeks time. At JoeBlow’s 20% needing hospitalisation – 30,000 more per day at that point. 60,000 per day less than a week later, then 120,000 per day… An S-curve rather than exponential I would think, but they do look similar for a time.
It does add up to a serious crisis, with worsening medical outcomes when hospitals and other services cannot cope.
So much for lockdowns costing jobs – Now I might have to drop part time job I like which is in a risky location where vulnerable people (who dont seem to care about precautions) are, many are homeless and have bigger problems to worry about . Or do i just resign myself to the fact of getting covid and possibly passing it on to my parents and vulnerable freinds ?
Its going to be an eerie surreal feeling at new years celebrations this evening ,i wasnt going anyway but I have to stay home with a panicky dog.
I sincerely hope people remember this for a long time to come: political hardball calculus of who becomes a collateral casualty in “living with covid,” who dies in order to keep the engines of business going gang busters, open and happy, being of course the political donor class to LNP, with scant regard for the safety of most of the Australian population who have other chronic (and some acute) medical conditions. The irony is that as case numbers rise—despite the reduction in testing—people are becoming so anxious about bringing Covid back into the home and infecting their parents, grandparents, etc., it is changing people’s behaviour in ways that could undo any so-called benefit of “living with covid.”
There has been complete disregard for the way that this virus has had several out of left field evolutionary advances, most of which have made the virus into a difficult beast to grapple with, but not impossible, if the scientific advice was adhered to. Lock downs should be a last restort, or on occasion a first resort—in order to allow contact tracing to do its thing, without people still spreading it far and wide; in between, there are so many public health measures that are merely an irritation, with little or no net economic impact, we could have mandated those measures, and reserved lock down for the two scenarios where lock downs are likely to succeed in the objective, and where the cost of not locking down is too severe to risk. All that kind of thinking has been chucked out the window. So, what was the point of it all, the last two years, if we were always going to surrender to the fatalists?
Remember this time, for it didn’t have to be this bad. I don’t know if it will happen, but there could be a point when a severe lock down is essential, to buy us some breathing space for our hospital system. Or, perhaps we turn out to be superbly lucky, and the current wave fizzles out, and no more nasty variants arise. At this current stage of the pandemic though, we really shouldn’t be indulging in magical thinking, the sheer lunacy of the people at the top of the totem pole. What do they do about too much strain on testing? Why, get rid of rules that make people queue for testing. Also helps with fudging the true extent of the omicron wave of infections in the community, putting our elderly parents at much greater risk than six weeks ago. Being in so-called “Virtual Hospital” at home, and no doubt we’ll soon have “Virtual Funeral” at home, a service for those who quietly popped their clogs away from all that messy scrutiny and official listing of cause of death as being covid. For that, I thank the Randians in the LNP at state and federal level. Well played. Clap clap clap.
1: If I sound cynical and bitter, there’s a reason for that.
2: Q: Who is/was the worst PM in our modern history: McMahon, or the current incumbent?
3: Q: How did Yes, Minister presage the manner by which the current incumbent landed the job?
4: Q: What the hell does a RAT kit look like? Can’t get one for love or money.
mrkenfabian, I didn’t say 20% needed hospitalisation. I said: in the UK, 80% of those in hospital – WHO TESTED POSITIVE FOR COVID – are there for incidental reasons. Four months ago, the vast majority of people who were in hospital, testing positive, were there because they were sick BECAUSE of (delta ) covid. ALL People who go to hospital are tested for covid and omicron is so prevalent that many people that end up in hospital test positive for covid. BUT, now only 20% – and falling! – are there because they are sick BECAUSE of covid. This is apparently a ‘right wing talking point’ but it is direct from the horses mouth.
What has and is happening in NSW is, IMHO, very well described in the heading: “Grim Covid prediction for January in NSW: ‘LUNACY’ ”
To provide a point of reference regarding the extent of the lunacy in NSW, effective since 15 December 2021, a comparison of the initial conditions and policy decision path of NSW with Germany might be helpful.
Germany has a new government, a coalition of SPD (Chancellor), Greens (Vice-Chancellor) and the Free Democrats (Finance). The cabinet includes an unusual feature in so far as the Health Minister, Karl Lauterbach, is a medical doctor as well as Professor (on leave) of epidemiology and public health economics. He is supported by a crisis management team of a broad range of scientists and a military man is heading the logistics for implementing policy decisions. Shortly after taking up his job, Lauterbach declared his strategy to curtail the omicron wave, which he expects will come to Germany. The aim of the strategy is to get before the wave by means of booster vaccination (initially ordered by age groups and hence length of time since the 2nd jab), trying to get more people to get vaccinated (low rate is a problem in Germany), making it difficult for the unvaccinated to get entry to public places (2G rule, vaccinated or recovered) and prioritising open schools over open clubs and life audiences at football matches. Masks etc remain in place. Some types of lockdowns in the future are not excluded but if one is considered necessary it will have to go through the Federal Parliament.
NSW was before the omicron wave in early December 2021 with manageably low case numbers (between 150 and 350, roughly) and a highly vaccinated population. The remaining restrictions in NSW (masks in public closed spaces, QR codes and minimal density restrictions) was accepted by the population as a minor inconvenience and all businesses were trading, except international tourism. (I have to admit Alan Joyce from Qantas proved to be rather nibble by focusing on domestic flights first – I believe nobody would like the national carrier go bust.) Furthermore, supply of vaccines for boosters as well as vaccines for 5 to 11 year olds we are told is on hand. Moreover in contrast to Germany, where the extreme right wing party, the AFD, mixes with conspiracy theorists and other crazies causing big problems, particularly in the former East German states, in NSW the opposition party has not caused undue problems for the coalition government and the demonstrations by proverbial ‘crazies’ was not as significant as in Victoria (as far as I can tell). To the best of my knowledge the relevant scientists in Australia say the same things as their counterparts in Germany, including citing research from the UK.
On 15 December the Premier of NSW, Dom Perrottet, removed the above mentioned minimal restrictions, waffled on about ‘personal responsibility’, opening up, NSW treating people as adults, case numbers are unimportant only hospitalisations count, basking in the comments by the PM, Scott Morrison. He retracted the 15 December 2021 decision on 24 December, even though he still maintains the 15 December decision was the right one. More recently, in an apparent attempt to achieve the worst possible case numbers per day, 25,000 by the end of January, he promoted people to come to the CBD on NYE to celebrate while maintaining social distancing. Now he is talking about beliefs, optimism, courage while business people, including domestic tourism, are complaining about cancellations. And, what seems to have escaped his attention, the LP heartland in the northern suburbs is turning pink with the risk of turning red as the number of active cases increases. I am talking about the map of Sydney.
Perrottet is an overachiever in the making. Today NSW recorded 21,151 cases (observed yesterday). I don’t believe I am crystal ball gazing when saying before lunch on 31 December the 25,000 mark will be reached.
Now the new policy is to use rapid antigen tests (RATs), which aren’t available in sufficient quantities, to relieve the pressure on PCR tests. Etc, etc.
My best guess is, Karl Lauterbach would have planned an extended X-mas holiday if he had been in Perrottet’s position on 14 December 2021.
Happy New Year to All.
The crisis will be very severe. Everyone must get COVID-19 Omicron, that is what neoliberal capitalism says. And everyone will get COVID-19 Omicron. With 25,000,000 people and a conservative death rate of just 0.1% under current vaccination rates that will mean 25,000 excess deaths due to COVID-19. But to think that will be the end of the matter is false. How will pregnant mothers and new babies fare? That is still unknown.
In addition, it is clear from the developments from the Alpha to the Omicron variants that we will face further variants and that immune escape and vaccine escape will increase in prevalence. The vaccination regime, without other controls, efficiently selects for immune escape and vaccine escape. Vaccination works best with other very firm controls. Without other controls, vaccination may turn from a help to a new kind of danger: a ticket to unstoppable new variants at least with the mRNAvaccine technology.
With the variant after Omicron we may get to dance the same waltz all over again, and so on with each new variant. Successive years of say 25,000 COVID-19 deaths per year on into the indefinite future. This is not certain but it is one danger we face. A radically new vaccine technology could prevent that. There are some hopeful new developments. We will have to wait and see.
The above simply ignores Long_Covid and the economic and social damage from letting the virus run rampant. These further damages, dilapidations and illnesses will be severe. Australia’s poliitical-economic fabric will be put under extreme strain. If we don’t repudiate market fundamentalism, there is no exit.
Don: “Q: What the hell does a RAT kit look like?”
This may answer your question:
1) https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-30/how-accurate-are-covid-rapid-antigen-tests-vs-pcr/100729792
2) COVID-19 self-tests (home use) approved by TGA: https://www.tga.gov.au/covid-19-rapid-antigen-self-tests-are-approved-australia
But it’s possible you may not see one for weeks, or alternatively pay extortionate prices for them.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/sydney-woman-pays-25-for-rapid-antigen-test-after-chemist-sells-multipack-individually/ar-AAShyTC?ocid=hplocalnews
Joe Blow “Yes, take care and get a booster” is pointless advice when lots of 65+ won’t be eligible until February, and (given likely waiting times for appointments and delay in vaccine taking effect) not effectively protected until March. Risking thousands of deaths on the basis of limited evidence from countries with radically different circumstances is lunacy.
Now, Doherty Institute director is saying ‘safe to relax restrictions’. Big change from a few weeks ago.
Link.
Happening in Germany too. Eric Feigl-Ding getting quite a bit of pushback on his twitter feed. But note the US is a bit different because of relatively low vac rate and still quite high delta covid in many areas. Omicron is 96% in UK, rising to that level in much of the World.
Joe Blow,
1. I watched the video clip on the link provided. The Director of the Doherty Institute did not talk about NSW at all.
2. What is “happening in Germany too”? I just checked der spiegel online and the sueddeutsche. All I could find was there has been a slight tightening of restrictions re density limits.
And what does “the market” say? The two stock indices in Australia are down by close to 1% at around 3:00pm.
Breaking my rule to simply ignore the daily mail:
‘If there were 200,000 cases a day, the whole of Australia would be infected in just a few months. That hasn’t happened anywhere in the world.’
That is a very weird thing to say, since no other countries did have a variant as contagious as this one going round for month while it was monitored. And who knows maybe omricon already did go round the whole country somewhere in Africa.
If you think, hey no big deal in South Africa, not many people in the hostpitals and omircon numbers already going down after a small outbreak, consider that excess death rates in South Africa are already in a territory that one would expect if everybody already had the virus among such a young population. https://www.samrc.ac.za/reports/report-weekly-deaths-south-africa When all vulnurable people are already dead and the rest is cured all variants start looking harmless.
Back in Aril of 2020 Thomas Piketty wrote in his new book TIME FOR SOCIALISM on page 291( Yale UNIVERSITY PRESS 2021) the following: “At this stage, the most urgent concern is primarily to grasp the extent of the current crisis and to do everything possible to avoid the worst, which is a full-scale hecatomb.” Like Earnestine Gross in my humble opinion to do otherwise is “LUNACY”. There must be direct action taken against government leaders who put their heads in the sand. We are not discussing a point of economic logic (yes Ikonoclast there is such a thing). We are talking about the long term health of everyone we love and know. There can be nothing greater to fight for than that and this si what we all must do. First you use democratic channels. Every local member, senator, MLC and political party executive has to be told that they are there to protect and serve NOT to pander and slander. If that does not work then direct action is vital. If the politicians were shown the public anger at their incompetence, not merely reading about it in the back seat of their government cars, then they may wake up to themselves. Action not words is what is needed if we don’t want to see our mothers, sisters, brothers, children, grandchildren, friends and peers get sick and maybe even get long COVID. Ask yourself one question: If the death rate is falling who is it acceptable to allow to die? Your partner? Your Child? Your grandparent? Your friend? Your peer? If your answers are all NO then do something about it yourself. Democracy is meant to be rule by the people NOT rule by overpaid, overfed, overinflated egotists. Without action words are meaningless. So I will stop there and get on to my local members.
Joe Blow is talking rubbish.
The study from SA is in its very early stages of review and as such, should not be relied on.
Similarly studies from Imperial College and Denmark, which can find no evidence of a decrease in hospitalisation, have yet to be reviewed.
The National Cabinet Statement, dated 30 Dec 2021 includes:
https://www.pm.gov.au/media/national-cabinet-statement-12
On what scientific basis is “more than 4 hours” derived from?
The National Cabinet seems to think COVID apparently is much less risky in work-settings, pubs & clubs, parties, weddings, funerals, etc.? 🙄
Immunologist Alan Baxter tweeted yesterday:
And a twitter thread from Prof Christina Pagel, director of the Clinical Operational Research Unit at University College London, on England & Omicron:
1. Sad & bewildered at lack of govt action and general levels of ‘hopium’;
2. UK cases twice as high as previous peak (last Jan);
3. Positivity rates increasing – testing not keeping up with cases;
4. Case numbers increasingly poor indicator of spread of virus;
5. Infections highest in 20-29 year old group, but rising fast in other groups except under 10s;
6. Hospital admissions rising, in ALL age groups;
7. 70-75% hospital admissions for COVID;
8. Fewer ICU admissions, but many staff infected;
9. No sign of cases peaking yet;
10. Warwick scenarios: Peak higher hospital admissions than last Jan, but fewer deaths;
11. Circuit breaker required – UK gov ignored science, missed boat;
12. NHS planning for ‘Nightingales’ and tents in carparks. Short-staffing causing massive problems;
13. 1.4 million cases in England in last 2 weeks. 100,000s of people likely to suffer long-COVID;
14. Young children not safe from Omicron – can’t be vaxxed and now rising admissions;
15. Past infections and mass vax have not stopped Omicron. Omicron is not last variant;
16. 75% eligible are now boosted, but current vaccines cannot protect alone;
17. Could have prevented mass infections, mass sickness, short-staffing for business, and Could have invested in better ventilation, like Japan, but didn’t. Instead of prevention, planning for hospital tents in carparks’
18. Too many people will end up with chronic illnesses & too many will die – it’s not fine.
It seems to me this is likely where NSW will be in a few weeks.
It is both funny and sad to see that the potentially largest single super-spreader event in the world wouldn’t result in any of the 200+ infectees being considered as “close contacts.” Not even Monty Python would have come up with that one. Truly Orwellian.
Haven’t visited here for a while. Is Joe Blow a voice from the past? Was it Graeme?
What is happening in the UK, is that the areas that were hit early by Omicron, and that means largely London, are seeing massive numbers of cases, and rapid increase in hospitalisations (about a factor of 3x increase in covid-related hospitalisations), that are still well below previous peaks but still rising, and still enough to put pressure on the health system (because the hospital staff are off sick/isolating as well).
coronavirus.data.gov.uk
On the positive side, there hasn’t been a rise in people on mechanical ventilation in London: there really is a significant difference clinically between Omicron and Delta.
Still a bit too early to tell on deaths, which are not yet changing much in London, but I think there is cautious optimism that the toll won’t be as bad (per case) as earlier waves, partly justified by the South African experience. This has a lot to do with quite high vaccination rates, and most of the 40+ year-olds having had boosters, or past infection, rather than just ‘omicron is mild’.
Prof. Pagel’s thread as usual is great: but as usual people will wrongly take the message that because vaccines/ past infection have not “stopped omicron” that they are not making a huge difference. This distinction is indeed carefully made in Prof Pagel’s thread, which is worth reading. The key quote here is ‘Our booster programme will turn an absolute tragedy into a “mere” terrible period’.
I can see that you are telling me that there is something I should do if my parliamentary representatives are not responsive; but I have no idea what it is that you are suggesting I should do. I can see that you are telling me I should do it directly, but I have no idea what it is that you are suggesting I should do directly. The only thing I can see that you have done is post a comment on a blog. Is that what you mean by direct action: posting comments on blogs?
J-D,
It’s generally understood that if you want to get a message through to your member of parliament that you send them a letter or email expressing your point of view or you ring the office. You can also organize a petition to deliver to your local member. Of course, the member’s staff will act as “flak catchers” [1] but it is generally understood that if enough constituents contact the office and threaten to vote the member out (that’s the usual explicit or implicit threat), then the member will eventually start to pay attention.
It’s also fairly widely understood what the phrase “direct action” means in the political context. It has an entry in Wikipedia. Here are the first three paragraphs.
“Direct action originated as a political activist term for economic and political acts in which the actors use their power (e.g. economic or physical) to directly reach certain goals of interest; in contrast to those actions that appeal to others (e.g. authorities); by, for example, revealing an existing problem, using physical violence, highlighting an alternative, or demonstrating a possible solution.
Both direct action and actions appealing to others can include nonviolent and violent activities which target persons, groups, or property deemed offensive to the action participants. Nonviolent direct action may include sit-ins, strikes, and counter-economics. Violent direct action may include political violence, assault, arson, street blockades, sabotage, and property destruction.
By contrast, electoral politics, diplomacy, negotiation, arbitration are not usually described as direct action, as they are electorally mediated. Nonviolent actions are sometimes a form of civil disobedience, and may involve a degree of intentional law-breaking where persons place themselves in arrestable situations in order to make a political statement but other actions (such as strikes) may not violate criminal law.” – Wikipedia.
Note: You can look up “flak catcher” on an internet search engine. You could have looked up “direct action”. Handy hint, if any concept or phrase baffles you, look it up on an internet search engine. If it’s not referenced, then ask the writer what they mean.
“flak catcher ( plural flak catchers ) – A person whose job is to conduct public relations by shielding a more prominent person by intercepting and deflecting complaints and criticism.”
Reference “Radical Chic & Mau-Mauing the Flak Catchers” a 1970 book by Tom Wolfe.
Prof Adrian Esterman tweeted this morning:
COVID test positivity rates (7-day average daily tests/7-day average daily cases) up to end-Dec 31 for:
NSW: 8.16% (rising trend)
VIC: 4.59% (rising trend)
QLD: 5.41% (rising trend)
SA: 5.37% (rising trend)
WA: 0.05% (stable)
TAS: 2.70% (rising trend)
NT: 0.88% (rising trend)
ACT: 5.57% (rising trend)
National: 6.29% (rising trend)
https://www.covid19data.com.au/testing
It seems the horse has definitely bolted for NSW, and probably bolted for QLD, SA, and ACT.
The horse has bolted for every state except W.A. As John Quiggin noted on his Twitter account, “The Covid crash is coming…”
For a start there will be a dire shortage of medical help. Within a week or two, help for anything less than a life threatening emergency will be almost non-existent for the next 6 months. Elective surgeries will not happen. Help for even life threatening emergencies will be patchy at best.
I think this event is what the governing elites want. They want all old and vulnerable people to die. They have been working towards this quite purposely. It’s a deliberate policy. It’s been clear for a year at least that the old and vulnerable would die regularly even with vaccines if the virus was fully unleashed. So deliberately opening up to promote spread of the pathogen is the same as deliberately killing those people. It’s intentional with malice aforethought.
Ikonoclast, there are alternative hypotheses ‘in the market’ to that described in your last paragraph. For example, one comment in the e-version of smh yesterday proposed the hypothesis: “We have an idiot for a Premier”.
From an economic perspective, the ‘let it rip’ decision of 15 December 2021, is very costly for society. As a first approximation, the costs can be measured in hours of labour output lost. It includes the sick days of those infected, the days of isolation of close contacts (no matter the change in the definition), the days of business closures due to one or several staff being sick or crucial maintenance work not being carried out in time or supply being delivered late or not at all, planes not being able to fly because pilots are sick, trains and buses not running for the same reason, The public infrastructure (hospitals, schools, police, …..) being affected for the same reason with negative flow on effects to the private sector and also in the opposite direction. These costs can be measured in hours of “output” lost and valued by either the minimum wage or something more complicated. Then there is loss of trades due to customers choosing a form of private ‘lockdown’, which in some cases can be measured in quantities (eg spoiled produce) or revenue in general. If omicron infections do turn out be be mild then not even the undertakers will experience a boom. Then there are the costs of bankruptcies.
By ‘letting it rip’ about 10 days before X-mas, some of these costs will not show up in the accounts because people are on holidays and productive work in the non-market sector doesn’t enter the monetary transactions accounts at all.
Ernestine Gross,
I do not believe Perottet or Morrison have less IQ points than I do. They are not stupid. They are devious and successful in their deviousness. Deviousness is a sign of intelligence wielded without moral strictures. There is a clear lack of moral foundation to their behavior. They are not stupid. They are bad.
Ikonoclast, just to be clear, it wasn’t I who posted the hypothesis on the smh comment site. With reference to the book “The psychology of stupidity”, IQ levels are not an adequate quantifier regarding stupidity. Psychologists talk about various types of ‘biases’ and other concepts. I do believe your specific suggestion regarding culling the ‘old’ and the vulnerable is a bit over the top.
I agree with Ernestine. Ikonoclast’s claim that State and Federal politicians are evil conspirators who seek to cull the old and the vulnerable is “a bit over the top”. Indeed perhaps more than “a bit”. It’s a delusional fantasy that seeks to project sinister intent on people Ikonoclast disagrees with politically. It’s not enough to disagree with such people he wants to go further and label them evil murderers. It dehumanises them in a way that fanatics have done to those they disagree with throughout history. Really don’t like this line.
In a sense I wish I hadn’t written my post shortly before 3:00pm today.
Harry be careful not to do to Ikonoclast what you accuse him of. I’d be more interested in your opinion on my first approximation of the economic cost, in terms of cost categories, of the NSW Premier’s 15 December 2021 decision. JQ’s thread refers to NSW.
Several here have called “lunacy” on the relevant leaders. I have called “morally bad”. Now, I could have called “morally reprehensible” and I probably would have escaped censure on that score.
I also wrote “It’s been clear for a year at least that the old and vulnerable would die regularly even with vaccines if the virus was fully unleashed. So deliberately opening up to promote spread of the pathogen is the same as deliberately killing those people.”
It was intentional policy. They knew what they were doing and they knew what would happen. They knew people would die and it was avoidable.
“Malice aforethought” was maybe too tough. How about “callous disregard”?
Okay: “Our leaders and rich elites are morally reprehensible and have acted with callous disregard for the elderly, the vulnerable and minorities. Everybody happy now?
Ernestine,
What you wrote is fine by me. I probably went too far. I am extremely angry about this pandemic to endemic outcome. It feels like a betrayal. It IS a betrayal and it was so unnecessary. Suppression to eradication is actually better economics as well as better morally. I have some very vulnerable people in my immediate family and friend circles, as do many others of course.
I stand by my reformulation.
“Our leaders and rich elites are morally reprehensible and have acted with callous disregard for the elderly, the vulnerable and minorities.”
I also think our medical workers, doctors, nurses, paramedics and ancillary staff have been thrown to the wolves (or rather to the virions) over this. Again, it was unnecessary. I happen to have some extended family members in the medical profession. None have complained to me or offered me any inside information on hospital conditions. Nor have I asked. But I am not a dunderhead. I know enough to know what they are facing and what they are about to go through. To be a front-line person in any work or profession and then to not be given the necessary support from the rear and upper echelons is a very galling betrayal. This is ALL a betrayal. That’s how I see it. Certain privileged classes are betraying the rest of us and just dropping all of us in the mess. All for a quick solution in their next quarterly report.
A number of arguments in this article go to my contentions:
View at Medium.com
Here are some salient excepts:
“People are considered expendable in service of (capital) accumulation. Of course, this conflict of interest between capital and human life has existed entirely independently and irrespective of coronavirus. It’s worthy of consideration, though, just how much this global situation threatens to exacerbate these tensions. Capitalists might view the crisis posed by coronavirus as having arisen from some unique and unforeseen misfortune, but deliberate courses of action have been pursued that have recklessly increased society’s vulnerability to any such crisis.”
“The total erosion of workers rights, the failure of Universal Credit, the lack of provision of anything even vaguely resembling UBI, measly statutory sick pay, and the proliferation of precarious workers — a situation actively desired and engineered by private profiteers — has gravely reduced possible contingency during such a moment. Without income protections, the precariat labour force are being given a choice between taking their chances with a deadly pandemic in continuing to work, or immiseration. Spread or die. Many will have this choice removed from them.”
“What should be unconscionable to consider (but was considered nevertheless by Tim Warner, an editor at The Telegraph) is that capital is incentivised to want those at particular risk of this virus — the elderly and the disabled — to succumb to it. “Not to put too fine a point on it, from an entirely disinterested economic perspective,” Warner writes. “The COVID-19 might even prove mildly beneficial in the long term by disproportionately culling elderly dependents.” ”
The Social Darwinist streak against the marginalized and vulnerable is never far from the surface among the capitalists. The undeserving poor are to be left to die. The weak are to be exploited, used up and discarded. Those of us who have current experiences or personal memories of being industrial or service workers know these things are real. I count among my life experiences working as a youthful laborer in a gravel pit with inadequate (non-existent) safety procedures. Some workers thought it funny to chase me, as the youngest person on site, with a D6 bulldozer and to regularly tip 6 cubic meter loads of gravel and rocks on a “grizzly” screen while I was still working on it clearing jammed rocks. I worked at James Hardie fibro factory at Pinkenbah and was sent in to clean fibro dust from filter stacks big enough to hold six men clearing the dust. The ill-fitting masks issued stopped little of the dust. My young nephew is currently working as an industrial cleaner. They clean concrete floors with hydrochloride acid in very large enclosed industrial sheds . He described the work to me and the effects on his eyes, ears, nose and throat. When I said “but surely they issue masks?” he said “no”. They are given no masks.
Nothing has changed. Capitalism has not changed its spots. It harms and kills people for money (capital accumulation). There’s a grey area between callous disregard and malicious aforethought. Many modern capitalist businesses still operate in this grey area and the Western governments (all of them) facilitate the accumulation of capital (to the already rich and well off) at the expense of the poor.
I’ll stick my neck out and predict that this pandemic wave will peak in 3 weeks or even sooner. Mostly over by mid March with a LOT of scaremongering by the usual suspects in between. The backlash – from both sides – will be interesting to watch.
Covid will become just another bug that we routinely get a shot for – may not even be required. The advances in vaccine tech and medical treatments over the last few years will have a profound effect on the course of future diseases. Rapid testing for many diseases will be routine and cheap once the regulations on their use are relaxed. ( ie no nurse required! – yay! ). Prices will fall dramatically as competition heats up. This will lead to even colds finally becoming relatively rare.
The world economy will boom – big time. A lot of confusion with supply chain disruptions, due to increased demand. Plenty of grist for the mill for those who blame free enterprise for the disruptions and those who blame outdated regulations for the problems. Lots to keep armchair experts of all stripes in business and the rest of us ‘entertained’.
‘Cypto’ will become the next highly charged debating point. Bitcoin will be one of the few winners.
Joe Blow: – “The world economy will boom – big time.”
IMO, that’s ‘Hopium’!!!
Per an interview with Vaclav Smil, published 22 Sep 2019:
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/sep/21/vaclav-smil-interview-growth-must-end-economists
In an article in the May-June 2009 edition of the American Scientist, by Charles A.S. Hall and John W. Day, Jr., titled Revisiting the Limits to Growth After Peak Oil, it included Figure 7, where a timescale from years 1900 to 2100 has been added to the original Limits to Growth model, with the authors indicating projections up to 2000 are “largely accurate”.
Click to access 2009-05Hall0327.pdf
Some more recent observations have been made of Hall & Day’s graph here:
I note that an observation suggests death rates may likely rise faster than birth rates due to “famines, plagues, pandemics, wars” much earlier than projected by 2050.
And here we are currently with a pandemic that I’d suggest is indicating could prove to erode human lifespan.
With the +1.5 °C global mean temperature threshold inevitably crossed, likely BEFORE 2030, regardless of any human actions in the interim, the risks of global food famines begin to increase exponentially.
Or of anything else, either.