Another Message Board
Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.
I’ve moved my irregular email news from Mailchimp to Substack. You can read it here. You can also follow me on Mastodon here
I’m also trying out Substack as a blogging platform. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack.
John Quiggin 
Iconoclast. I want to apologize to you for my glib and “whole system” brush off re Putin in last week’s MMB “Ikonoclast says:
February 24, 2023 at 7:13 pm
“rog, Multi-factor causation. Heard of it or thought about it yourself? The world is pretty obviously a very complex place.”
Everything is Multi-factor causation.
And it is time to tax due to war.
Stiglitz says raise taxes now, reminding us we had better evoke Keynes (correct?) before the war ends. As in NOW.
STIGLITZ says:
“Wars Aren’t Won with Peacetime Economies
….
“Neoliberalism, based on simplistic ideas about how markets should operate that fail to comprehend how they actually operate, didn’t work even in peacetime. It must not be allowed to stop us from winning this war.
JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/west-needs-war-economics-energy-food-supply-shortages-by-joseph-e-stiglitz-2022-10
KT2,
No apology needed. Until the controlling elites feel threatened they do not change policies substantially. Stiglitz is, on balance, correct. Still, as I say, any tipping point in policy will only be seen if and when the elites feel a direct threat to themselves. This is true on any issue. The threat could be foreign or (let us hope) of the democratic socialist solidarity type.
War capitalism is often invoked to win wars. That involves rationing and a different set of answers to one of the fundamental questions:
WHAT TO PRODUCE?
For example, Europe has promised to deliver more ammunition to the Ukraine. If they do not simply run down their own stockpiles, and given Putin’s madness who would do that, then they must produce more ammunition. That means that resources have to. be diverted from more peaceful production. Of course China could be playing both sides of the street and selling ammunition to both Russia and the Euro zone – both big export customers.
But War Capitalism also implies a different sort of regulatory framework. This is the devil in the detail. If the victory over Putin becomes an obsession, Then regulations can become draconian. Of course Putin must be defeated BUT using democratic regulations that can be challenged n courts IF they go too far. Anything less and you may as well accept the demise of demographic process. And is that not what the Ukraine is fighting against? Think about what can be allowed.
Gregory J. McKenzie,
Woodside has LOTS of wiggle room “That was up 228% on a year earlier” About A$7bn lazy. Not a 10 bagger. A 2.28 bagger.
I appreciate your concern for a potential slippery slope towards “regulations can become draconian”. Which I do not see as a problem considering a pandemic, Ukraine etc etc. And with a tight short term policy with, ala mining comapnies, a trigger mechanism for a reasonable profit (?!). And guarantee premium bond sweetener in case of longer term or larger conflagration. Read profit to 100%! Retch as I vomit my trickle up. Perhaps yiu or an economist can put this paragraph into economic speak.
From:
“Woodside profit triples aided by Ukraine war energy price boost
“That was up 228% on a year earlier, and includes the proceeds of its takeover of BHP’s oil assets. The main profit driver, though, was soaring global energy prices in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a year earlier.
“The disruptions and subsequent sanctions on Russian energy helped push up the “realised price” of Woodside’s production 63% to the equivalent of $US98.40 per barrel of oil.
“The market watches most closely the so-called underlying profit, which also rose 223% – or more than triple – to $US5.2bn. Investors were also keen on the dividend payout, which for the full year were $2.53 a share or 87% higher than the previous year.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2023/feb/27/australia-news-live-cybersecurity-industry-emissions-interest-rates-economy-health-housing-welfare-weather?page=with:block-63fbefce8f08ea98983acff7#block-63fbefce8f08ea98983acff7
Come back after reading the 2 links below:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woodside_Energy#Criticism
Note the forces you are up against. Twiggy Forest trashed by Kerry Stokes. They need their wings clipped, as the are ticket clipping Australia, protected by fauxnews.
In “Billionaire stoush over alleged media bias highlights the need for greater media diversity
“Forrest’s Fortescue Metals previously had a supply arrangement with WesTrac. But he then placed on order to purchase 120 emission-free, hauling trucks from the German Liebherr company, putting him in direct competition with WesTrac.
“Forrest claims this move was met with “biased, inflammatory and inaccurate” coverage about his company in Seven West Media.”
“In its final report, the media diversity inquiry commented,
“It is noteworthy that the overwhelming majority of the evidence to this inquiry relates to one dominant media organisation, News Corp.
https://theconversation.com/billionaire-stoush-over-alleged-media-bias-highlights-the-need-for-greater-media-diversity-200354
Gregory J. McKenzie,
Did the WW2 war economies of GB, USA and other allies lead to the permanent demise of the democratic process? No, they did not, not in the post war era. Democracy came back to the fore until unfettered capital become too powerful in the 1970s. Non-absolute (that is case-by-case-basis) Statist provisions in our mixed economy and balance of powers system do not lead to the demise of democracy. Corporate and oligarchic private property and money becoming over-powered are a far greater internal risk to our democracy as we can see from contemporary regulatory and governance capture. Arguments like the one you put forward are generally from those not concerned about democracy but concerned to retain their excessive privileges, their excessive and often un-taxed wealth and their power over governments by donations, grey gifts and creeping influence and corruption.
I don’t believe that last is your overall position.
Weaponise your drone with a Microsoft acct. And heat lunch too.
Remember when the US banned Apple Mac’s because their graphics capabilities may be used by Rouge States to do real time 4d missile tracking & control?
AI gets a free pass it seems.
“Autonomous Systems and Robotics Group
“ChatGPT for Robotics: Design Principles and Model Abilities”
February 20, 2023
“ChatGPT unlocks a new robotics paradigm, and allows a (potentially non-technical) user to sit on the loop, providing high-level feedback to the large language model (LLM) while monitoring the robot’s performance. By following our set of design principles, ChatGPT can generate code for robotics scenarios. Without any fine-tuning we leverage the LLM’s knowledge to control different robots form factors for a variety of tasks. In our work we show multiple examples of ChatGPT solving robotics puzzles, along with complex robot deployments in the manipulation, aerial, and navigation domains.
Robotics with ChatGPT: design principles
Prompting LLMs is a highly empirical science. Through trial and error, we built a methodology and a set of design principles for writing prompts for robotics tasks:
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/group/autonomous-systems-group-robotics/articles/chatgpt-for-robotics/
Would someone put this in human language re interest rate dyamics, please? JQ?
“The demand reallocation shock explains a large portion of the rise in U.S. inflation in the aftermath of the pandemic.” The Fed.
My switch from services to consumption is at fault for anportion of interest rate rises?
International Finance Discussion Papers (IFDP)
February 2023
“The Inflationary Effects of Sectoral Reallocation
Francesco Ferrante,
Sebastian Graves and
Matteo Iacoviello
Abstract:
“The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented shift of consumption from services to goods. We study this demand reallocation in a multi-sector model featuring sticky prices, input-output linkages, and labor reallocation costs. Reallocation costs hamper the increase in the supply of goods, causing inflationary pressures. These pressures are amplified by the fact that goods prices are more flexible than services prices. We estimate the model allowing for demand reallocation, sectoral productivity, and aggregate labor supply shocks. The demand reallocation shock explains a large portion of the rise in U.S. inflation in the aftermath of the pandemic.
Keywords: Sectoral Reallocation, Inflation, Input-Output Models, Moment-matching exercise
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2023.1369
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/the-inflationary-effects-of-sectoral-reallocation.htm
Post WW2 saw the enlargement of the USSR and it seems that Putin wants to restore Russia to those Soviet times – a nation without boundaries in perpetual war with everybody – an economy on permanent war footing – a society of fear and death.
That is Putin’s strategy – like Hitler, he is a man consumed by his own petty resentments.
Causality?
rog – Causality?
Tricky and long in the tooth. Anyone brave enough?
This is worth a read.
“Megapost about causality: the summary of “The Book of Why” by Pearl and Mackenzie and more ideas
“Statistics, causality, causal modelling, mediation analysis, counterfactuals, philosophy of research, causal representation learning, ethical AI, the power of abstractions, and systems thinking
Jan 13, 2022
https://engineeringideas.substack.com/p/megapost-about-causality-the-summary
“The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect is a 2018 nonfiction book by computer scientist Judea Pearl and writer Dana Mackenzie. The book explores the subject of causality and causal inference from statistical and philosophical points of view for a general audience.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Book_of_Why
Note to self. Donate to Wikipedia.
JQ, Thanks for appearing on RN with Andy Park re Superannuation. I don’t care what your voice sounds like. Hope to see an article or thread soon re super.
Hope this link works. Finally, an explanation of the Monty Hall problem which makes complete sense to the average idiot like me.
The explainer adds the crucial information that Monty Hall knows what is behind all three doors before the game starts and must (producer’s orders) show you a booby prize door and never the prize door. I didn’t know this and people seem to just assume one knows this fact. Please, I never saw the show. The explanation then makes sense and is a simple and easy demonstration of the probabilities.
This shows that unless explainers make sure explainees are given all the pertinent facts explicitly, with no assumptions being made about the initial knowledge of the explainee, then explainees may well not get what you are explaining.
Iconoclast
If you think I have any material privileges then you have not seen my bank balance. I am a retired teacher and not one that has any wealth accumulation. That is why I can warn about excessive draconian regulations. I do not see the world of the 1940s and 1950s as relevant to the world I observe in 2023. Democracy in 1950 was never stronger in the USA and the UK. Australia too had a strong democracy but we are too small to matter much in the world course of regulatory tightening. The first response you hear today is about the need to tighten national security regulations. Well that is a blinkered view. The role of any democracy is to facilitate the rule by the people. Not the rule of one cabinet minister who controls national security agencies. If there are no checks and balances then you risk another invasion of the Congress building in the USA, or the Presidential Palace in Brazil, or any other democratic government building anywhere else. Democracy is fragile in today’s world. It is being marginalised by politicians who think they know what is best for their country. That is totally deluded thinking. Democracy is about majority rule NOT about a party machine ruling without any judicial oversight.
By all means fight for freedom and support any nation doing that same thing. But don’t surrender to any politicians who only want to dominate not serve the public.
Economics comes out of politics. If politicians think they can override democratic principles then they will impose economic hardships and blame it on some fake need to protect national security. Economics is just one cog in the democratic process. The whole thing needs protecting and we
must defend democracy. It is all we have left in a Twenty-First Century world of creeping autocracy.
“Ms Burrow said that even over a decade ago, Mr Putin showed his hand about his feelings towards the West.
“I met Putin a number of times. I would have said there is narcissism there for sure,” Ms Burrow told Q+A host Stan Grant.
“I once stood on a stage with him, co-launching a union conference where I understood things I had not before … his absolute vitriol against the West.
“The vitriol was visceral with hatred.””
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-28/ukraine-russia-vladimir-putin-absolute-vitriol-q-and-a/102030776
Causality?
Gregory J McKenzie.
When I wrote “I don’t believe that last is your overall position,” I meant the whole of the last sentence. I wasn’t clear and it can be read read as meaning just the last phrase. I was not imputing great wealth to you. I already assume that nobody writing on this blog is super wealthy. They wouldn’t bother. Only the powerless opine. The powerful exercise their power.
It is a reasonable argument that we are not the same world as the world of the 1940s to 1960s. Yet, I feel that the fear of the state now is at base really the fear of a state captured by the corporations with democracy bought and suborned. We have to reclaim the state. If we voluntarily hobble the state it means we have already conceded to corporatism. Because we only hobble the parts that could help us. The corporations are enabling and working on the parts of the state that help them.
State capture example. Absolute conflict of interest. And Google veto of news.
Yes – Democracy please.
“State capture – or the aquiensce if power to private actors. Ignorance of states will NOT be bliss.
How is this acceptable?!
Along with US security department contacts 2015 aporox 15. Amazon & Microsoft had 140 contracts by 2019. Imagine the veto or malfeasance power of nefarious actors.
“Eric Schmidt Is Building the Perfect AI War-Fighting Machine
….
https://johnquiggin.com/2023/02/20/monday-message-board-588/#comment-259233
Chip machine manufacture.
Ever wondered what TSMC or Intel do to make the chips for the device you are holding in your hand and seeing with your eyes? James?
They buy machines from ASML.
Super Man Machines.
– Able to direct 7 photons onto a one nanometer square area
– “A generator ejects 50,000 tiny droplets of molten tin per second. A high-powered laser blasts each droplet twice. The first shapes the tiny tin, so the second can vaporize it into plasma.”
An extreme ultraviolet lithography EUV machine is a technological marvel imo. Able to precisely control photons and plasma tin cloud!
– A Photon is an elementary particle – “at about half a fermi, or roughly 0.5×10 to the minus 15m”. (See below.)
So about six orders of magnitude “smaller?” than current extreme ultraviolet lithography. We will need new superlatives than extreme. Maybe my physics & math analogy is incorrect. Any experts?
And EUV systems are rare.
“A total of 15 EUV systems were operating in customer fabs worldwide at the end of 2016”.
Can’t find a current number.
“The plasma emits extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation that is focused into a beam and bounced through a series of mirrors. The mirrors are so smooth that if expanded to the size of Germany they would not have a bump higher than a millimeter.
“Finally, the EUV beam hits a silicon wafer—itself a marvel of materials science—with a precision equivalent to shooting an arrow from Earth to hit an apple placed on the moon. This allows the EUV machine to draw transistors into the wafer with features measuring only five nanometers—approximately the length your fingernail grows in five seconds.”
In a machine which “weighs approximately 180,000 kilograms”. 180 tonne machine.
“Quick facts
▪ One EUV system contains 100,000 parts,
• 3,000 cables,
• 40,000 bolts and 2 kilometers of hosing
• An EUV system weighs approximately 180,000 kilograms
▪ An EUV system ships in 40 freight containers, spread over 20 trucks and 3 cargo planes
▪ A total of 15 EUV systems were operating in customer fabs worldwide at the end of 2016
• Together, these systems have exposed more than 700,000 wafers in customer fabs
• The mirrors used in an EUV system need to be extremely flat. If one were to be blown up to the size of Germany, the biggest bump would be less than 1 millimeter high
▪ We create EUV light by firing a high-energy laser on a droplet of molten tin — 50,000 times per second
• An EUV system controls beams of light so accurately that it is equivalent to shining a light torch from the earth and hitting a 50 eurocent coin placed on the moon
[24.25 mm diameter at a distance of 384,400 km]
• An EUV system contains a large vacuum chamber that weighs 7,600 kilograms
• ASML’s total R&D organization has more than 5,500 engineers and a budget of over 1 billion Euro annually
From “A backgrounder on Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography”
View at Medium.com
(Via scopeofwork dot net
“Notes, 2023-02-27 by TW Lim”. Thanks)
Photon ‘size’? Wrong question.
“So although the photon appears to exist without physical volume or geometrical size, we can measure the region where the wave’s magnitude is non-negligible. This happens at about half a fermi, or roughly 0.5×10-15m.”
researchgate dot
net/post/How-big-is-a-photonWhat-are-its-dimensions
If you can cope with quantum see wikipedia wiki/Fermi_energy
wikipedia /wiki/Extreme_ultraviolet_lithography
Non wonder they cost and are rare.
rog opined – “Causality?” re “an economy on permanent war footing – a society of fear and death.”
See Granger below. Philosophical.
JQ may be able to answer an economic causality plea – may take 5yrs even for JQ! JQ? Another doctorate?
It seems we have a methodology to answer a Causality? question rog.
Just ask JQ to please get all historical financial records directly and indirectly relating to “Rus”, and use this method below to map all “bivariate symbolic transfer entropy quantifying only the direct causal effects among the variables of a multivariate system. Through Monte Carlo simulations it is shown that the PSTE (Partial Symbolic Transfer Entropy) is directly applicable to non-stationary in mean and variance time series and it is not affected by the existence of outliers and VAR (Value at risk?) filtering.”
I like the potential of showing dynamically, multiple bifircations. Obviously this is above my pay grade.
*
“Detecting Causality in Non-stationary Time Series Using Partial Symbolic Transfer Entropy: Evidence in Financial Data”
February 2015
Computational Economics 47(3)
DOI:10.1007/s10614-015-9491-x
Authors:
Angeliki Papana
Catherine Kyrtsou
Dimitris Kugiumtzis
Cees G. H. Diks
Citations (54)
References (66)
Abstract
“In this paper, a framework is developed for the identification of causal effects from non-stationary time series. Focusing on causality measures that make use of delay vectors from time series, the idea is to account for non-stationarity by considering the ranks of the components of the delay vectors rather than the components themselves. As an exemplary measure, we introduce the partial symbolic transfer entropy (PSTE), which is an extension of the bivariate symbolic transfer entropy quantifying only the direct causal effects among the variables of a multivariate system. Through Monte Carlo simulations it is shown that the PSTE is directly applicable to non-stationary in mean and variance time series and it is not affected by the existence of outliers and VAR filtering. For stationary time series, the PSTE is also compared to the linear conditional Granger causality index (CGCI). Finally, the causal effects among three financial variables are investigated. Computations of the PSTE and the CGCI on both the initial returns and the VAR filtered returns, and the PSTE on the original non-stationary time series, show consistency of the PSTE in estimating the causal effects.”
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/271773845_Detecting_Causality_in_Non-stationary_Time_Series_Using_Partial_Symbolic_Transfer_Entropy_Evidence_in_Financial_Data
Not sure how results would be presented.
“Hénon’s dynamical system” map?
johndcook dot com/blog/2023/02/08/henon/
“Relationship to Bifurcation Diagram
“If multiple Hénon maps are plotted, for each map varying the value of b, then stacking all maps together, a Bifurcation diagram is produced. A Bifurcation diagram that is folded like a taco. Hence its boomerang shape when viewed in 2D from the top.”
wikipedia.org/wiki/H%C3%A9non_map
Granger causality
“Since the question of “true causality” is deeply philosophical, and because of the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy of assuming that one thing preceding another can be used as a proof of causation, econometricians assert that the Granger test finds only “predictive causality”.[2] Using the term “causality” alone is a misnomer, as Granger-causality is better described as “precedence”,[3] or, as Granger himself later claimed in 1977, “temporally related”.[4] Rather than testing whether Xcauses Y, the Granger causality tests whether X forecasts Y.[5]”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Granger_causality
Causality?
An AI answering Causality! We are trying our best to to Cause our subservience to machines.
“Why artificial intelligence needs to understand consequences
“A machine with a grasp of cause and effect could learn more like a human, through imagination and regret.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00577-1
Granger cauality at Wikipedia.
“Since the question of “true causality” is deeply philosophical, and because of the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy of assuming that one thing preceding another can be used as a proof of causation,… Using the term “causality” alone is a misnomer, as Granger-causality is better described as “precedence”,[3] or, as Granger himself later claimed in 1977, “temporally related”.[4] Rather than testing whether X causes Y, the Granger causality tests whether X forecasts Y.[5]”
Groan.
This may save us. Great short story re AI recognising… read it. Solves many proposals re inequality. Great idea.
“Read The Into The Black Contest’s Winning Story, Set In A Future Where Economics Are Also Humane
“Rounding Corrections” by Sandra Haynes
….
AI says: “I was upgraded with facial recognition software and coded to collect a broad range of additional attributes and aggregate the new data with existing records.
“Weeperfile 0000001108
…
https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2018/01/read-the-into-the-black-contests-winning-story-set-in-a-future-where-economics-are-also-humane/
Last Causal.
Just in case JQ tries above, best read this re studies & metastudies & “the treatments were not chosen randomly between studies”.
Via Andrew Gelman.
“Rohrer and Arslan’s nonet: More ideas regarding interactions in statistical models
Posted on February 27, 2023
…
Rohrer and Arslan:
“It is reasonable to suspect that this reflects differences between the studies in the meta-analysis, rather than such a large causal effect of incentive form.”
…
Rohrer and Arslan:
“It is reasonable to suspect that this reflects differences between the studies in the meta-analysis, rather than such a large causal effect of incentive form.
AG: :That is, the studies where a gift incentive was tried happened to be studies where the incentive was less effective. Each study in this meta-analysis was a randomized experiment, but the treatments were not chosen randomly between studies, so there’s no reason to think that treatment interactions would happen to balance out.”
“Some lessons from our example
…
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2023/02/27/rohrer-and-arslans-nonet-more-ideas-regarding-interactions-in-statistical-models/
Put simply, the causality of the Ukraine war is the abandonment by Russia of democracy and the transition to autocracy. Having dispensed with accountability and transparency, the power of the ruler has grown and Russia has moved into being a totalitarians state.
Don´t like that war rethoric. While it is rather not fun to have lots of Ukrainians with ptsd arround (which i learned, the employment office threats about as good as it threats me at best* ) and for a while rather high energy prices, that is very distinctive from being a war party onself. Russia still got nukes, that´s still it. If anything that ridiculous cold war rerun of a proxy war has taught as about a Russian conventional military threat, it is that is does not exist.
*In general Ukrainians for perfect symmetry, not just those with ptsd, also Psychology Profs, ok in reality is an anecdote of 1, just very believable unfortunately: Got no spot at a German course, go to the one Euro Job (read cleaning Streets and the like for no real pay, it´s not like you got a super scare qualification or were able to learn German without someone teaching you that got a paper that says” German as a foreign language teacher”.) Of course there is no legal requirement whatsoever to take that one Euro job, but the employment office will make sure to give the opposit impression, which makes it impossible to think otherwise for recent migrants no matter how high educated.
Aside the “usual” employment office logic, why why would you ask people that just ran from the front line if they have any real estate in the Ukraine (assets not eligble for welfare!: Really , no sure not even according to your own legal nonsense).
We heard a lot about the inadequacies of central European armies. Of course they are a joke. What else could they be, since the only possible scenario they would actually fight in is a world-ending nuclear war. Thus they serve no purpose, which opens doors to waste the enivitable sky high budgets on things like tanks that always break down because the generals and engineers wanted a super toy, or being a high paid gathering place for people that rather should not have any responsiblity at all with or without guns.
This is still one very dysfunctional country invading another much smaller one that only resembles some functionality by being compared to the invader and failling as miserable as one could think while the west is still holding back on many weapons. This is not a war scenario where Russia has any chance to do anything threatening besides having nukes. Ruining and ending lives for no rhime or reason, sure, being a conventional military threat, to any Nato member – no way.
hix, I (try) in Australia to advocate for a ptsd sufferer. The government support services here – Centrelink – do exactly the same to both war induced, physical, grief induced or civillian trauma induced PTSD people. Despiriting in the extreme.
hix, our comment is difficult to understand yet your statement “not just those with ptsd” hit me.
Here is my understanding of your “*…” “Got no spot at a German course, go to the one Euro Job (read cleaning Streets and the like for no real pay, it´s not like you got a super scare qualification or were able to learn German without someone teaching you that got a paper that says” German as a foreign language teacher”.)”.
Government first don’t believe.
Then they make the PTSD sufferer get all medical, legal and Financials to justify a diagnosis to enable any payments, supports and or training courses.
Making the client do all this themselves is called “Accommodation Discrimination”. Below I provide a legal definition of “Accommodation” which is not a place to live. As I do not speak German, this is a German definition – maybe – and happy to be corrected;
das Entgegenkommen
kindness, obligingness, concession, accommodation
Or English obligingness
German; Entgegenkommen,, Verbindlichkeit, Zuvorkommenheit, Kulanz
See “Accommodation Discrimination”
American University Law Review below for a study to poke into the bureaucrats process, and perhaps to bolster a refugees claims of systemic lack of “das Entgegenkommen”.
A person with PTSD when trying to get medical justifications has to relive the experience numerous times to several low level bureaucrats to get to the required specialist -clinical psychologist or better a psychiatrist – at their own expense and or efforts, then to a senior bureaucrat with the power to approve.
And so the process continually retraumatises and further embeds and exacerbates the Traumatic Stress, turning the “Post” in “Now” Traumatic Stress, by reliving the experiences, strengthening neuronal trauma connections, which led to the PTSD. Which acts like a negative feedback loop. Further enforcing the “Trauma Stress”. Very bad for the person with PTSD.
It is important to not have the person to relive their experience. Just to say how they are now, effects now, and a grounding excersize to be in touch with the here and now – as simple as describing surrounding – a view out the window – trees, sounds, recognising they are “safe/ now. Grounding is most important. If alone, even a seemingly unusual act such as a self-hug, may alleviate symptoms
The 2nd order effects of trauma are called vicarious trauma: “McCann and Pearlman argue, however, that there is probably a relationship between these constructs, but vicarious trauma is unique and distinct.
“As time has progressed, the term vicarious trauma has expanded to more than just indirect trauma experienced by trauma therapists and has come to include many more populations, although the phenomenon is still evolving.”
…
“Common signs and symptoms include, but are not limited to, social withdrawal; mood swings; aggression; greater sensitivity to violence; somatic symptoms; sleep difficulties;intrusive imagery; cynicism; sexual difficulties; difficulty managing boundaries with clients; and core beliefs and resulting difficulty in relationships reflecting problems with security, trust, esteem, intimacy, and control.[3][4][5][6][7][8][9]”
wikipedia.org/wiki/Vicarious_traumatization
Over the 10 years of supporting PTSD sufferer, I have experienced all the above symptoms. Draining. I went to a doctor and explained these symptoms. For the next year, as it is mandatory for doctors to ask people with these symptoms – “are you going to suicide”! Shocked at first. The Dr explained that of people presenting with such experiences, 5% attempt suicide! Please ask for help if you are feeling this hix.
You must be a good person hix.
I hope the above in some way is useful or at least provides solace that someone else is sympathetic.
And shove this study below in to the faces of the bureaucrats who have “no legal requirement whatsoever to take that one Euro job, but the employment office will make sure to give the opposit impression,”
*
Legal definition of Accommodation
“An accommodation is a means of providing assistance or convenience for a person, and the practice of modifying objects and situations to the benefit or needs of another person.”…
https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/accommodation
Study
“Accommodation Discrimination”
American University Law Review (Forthcoming 2023)
36 Pages
Posted: 20 Aug 2022
Katherine Macfarlane
Southern University Law Center
Date Written: August 15, 2022
Abstract
“Reasonable accommodations should be tools of equality yet can feel more like punishment than remedy. To receive accommodations, people with disabilities must disclose intimate details about their health. The accommodation process that follows disclosure is arduous, dissuading many people with disabilities who need accommodations from requesting them. Even if accommodations are granted, institutional enforcement is not guaranteed. Instead, the labor of implementing reasonable accommodations often falls to disabled people themselves. Accommodated people with disabilities also endure remarks about receiving “special” treatment for disabilities that are allegedly exaggerated or faked.
…
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4190587
Take care hix, and lucky are the Ukrainians you obviously care for.
Triggering?
Need someone to talk to:
Lifeline Australia 13 11 14
International Helpline Berlin provides emotional support to people in Germany who are in distress or at risk of suicide. Tel: 030-44 01 06 07.
Splitting to Entgegen kommen we get the literal translation in English as “come towards”. So it is “come towards” or “welcome”, in a sense, as opposed to pushing people away. Most government welfare policy, the world over, is about pushing people away. It is not about helping. It is about reducing the welfare budget while at the same time spending excessively on tax breaks for the rich, subsidies for big business and the rich and on defense (submarines or tanks) and extravaganzas (the Olympics). The elites care about defense (as it entails defense of them and big money making opportunities) and elites care about extravaganzas (as they involve exposure and propaganda for them plus big money making opportunities once again). It is very clear what is going on. The question is, how to change it?
Ikon, thanks for the clarification.
And you’ve hit the nail with the only appropriate question;
“The question is, how to change it?”.
JQ, everyone, any ideas?
1) vote for policy not politicians after introducing;
– a 4 day week
– sortition
“China’s self-serving Ukraine ‘peace plan’ ”
…
“The truth is that Beijing only observes the principles underpinning international order to the extent that they serve its interests.”
…
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/chinas-self-serving-ukraine-peace-plan/
The truth! – only a think tank could say that, followed by “they serve its interests.”.
I agree with the thrust, yet like China not recognising Russia’s agression, some balance is needed regarding other actors
“Interests”.
Perhaps ASPI has some balance. Not evident in this worthwhile and erudite takedown of China’s “self-serving ‘peace plan'”.
Any idea where ‘our’ peace plan is?
“unwillingness” now a ‘justification ‘ of nsw police prosecutors! Joh bjelke P must be smiling.
Preemptive policing ars-ificial un-intelligence. No actual intelligence – artificial or bioligical – nor innocence, required.
How about Joh-Land?
*
“saying that was her “democratic right”.
“What she chooses to do surely is up to her,” Farnan [ magistrate, Clare Farnan] said. “The police want me to maintain bail conditions of a 2km city radius so she can’t attend protests … that’s essentially your submission.”
The police prosecutor said the bail conditions were imposed due to an “unwillingness” shown by Kuehlmann to comply with public orders.
He raised concern over a National Union Student protest planned for Friday, warning that Kuehlmann “may engage in similar events” and commit similar offences.
“She does not respect private property,” he told the court. “It will permit her to attend rallies … The incident was an unlawful protest.”
“The magistrate said the community had a lawful right to protest in the CBD, questioning the motivation of police to impose such restrictive conditions.
….
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/01/court-throws-out-inappropriate-bail-conditions-on-student-arrested-after-sydney-protest-at-reserve-bank
No worries, i got no ptsd (trauma in general is at best a side issue for me) and i got like perfect threatment at the moment. That´s how the waiting lists work sometimes, one of which took me 1,5 years to get through, now i can´t handle all the high qualified people trying to help me at the same time. I even do have a Psychiatrist that already has finished her specialisation, is fluent in German, has more than 5 minutes time per appointment and sees me at least once a month. A rare luxury cominbation these days.
For the most part it is f32.1 for me,. I´m also not very much personally involved with Ukrainians. Frankly, considering my training i better should have a well paid job being involved. Not going to happen. Not just not for me, for no one, as the undeniable logic of public sector jobs regarding refugees only sees the need for a handfull of additional low level bureaucrats, german teachers and maybe a couple of social workers. All of which got distinctive degrees asigned for i don´t have.
Well, there was one episode of paying McKinsey 3000 Euro a day for every Mckinsey employee including the intern, but that was for makeing denying refugee status “more efficient”. Other than that, why would there be any demand for new qualified help.
As Ukrainians are not in that category of undesirables, no jobs for outsideres.
So the story with the Ukrainian Psychology Prof:
As most Ukrainians she got no spot at a German language course taught by someone with the required certificate. The waiting list is long. Albeit from a bureaucrats point of view that is the place to be for Ukrainians: Full time at a German course, where they are taught German up to at least B2 level, all according to the standard EU tests, naturally.
One would figure the employment agency, would now be rather happy to have here, and move heaven and hell to find a paid job for her threating Ukrainians, maybe not at a Prof payscale, but at least something with a BA public sector sallery on a temporary contract, or short of that at least tell her: You got enough academic training, you will handle learning german without a teacher that has a “German as a foreign languge teacher” certificate, we will leave you alone for a while. None of that happend. She got forced into takeing an “Arbeitsgelegenheit”. A quasi unpaid low qualified full time non job, designed to get those lazy long term unemployed into doing anything so they might start to look for real work or whatever the neoliberal mind cooked up when those were invented. Either way, in no universe of mindsets is such a job appropiate for such a case.
I always figured the employment agency suggesting i should take such a job was mostly due to stigma attached to mental ilness and they would have never dared to do so towards someone with a similar qualification otherwise: I guess that story sort of proofs the opposit of my theory in a way that would be funny if it would not involve such serious unecessary suffering.
The other story is about how the employment agency handles eligibility for welfare regarding refugees:
By asking everyone very throughly if any assets might stand in the way. Naturally that also involves asking Ukrainians if they have real estate in the Ukraine. Also if that involves real estate on the front line that may or may not exist at the time of asking the question. It´s just the law, new ptsd episode be damnned.
While German law can be very rigid and structrually dehumanicing when it comes to welfare, there is just no way this apparent standard questioning line and procedure is in anyway legally required in that particular case.
They just don´t think, they just act like bots, not even good legal bots as the people handling those things got below BA level training, rather like good little you are all just lazy and/or unable to work anyway and at the same time very intelligent comeing up with ways to cheat yourself into more welfare than you are eligble for paragraph bots.
I wish I had known it was this easy to decode German when I studied German briefly at high school! Just make a few letter swaps and you can decode many words. Yes, it really works, to an extent anyway. 🙂
Okay, you could read menus and signs with this method. I am not saying you will suddenly be able to read Immanuel Kant in German when your only language is English.
How to change politics for the better?
Fortunately a Democrat & a Republican “shunned the verbal attacks that dominate most political campaigns” and released an advertisement, which went viral… ““I’m not sure this has ever been done before,” Cox tweeted along with the video ad.”
Politicians fixing politics with advertising! Amazing such isn’t on our media – say replacing gambling adverts! I can only hope.
Most of us imo want to see an end to political polarization. A Pew survey showed “72% of Republicans said that Democrats are “more immoral” than members of their own party, and 63% of Democrats said the same about Republicans — increases of 17% and 16% in just a three-year period. Similar trends have been seen in other countries1. In Switzerland, for example, the degree to which people like their own party more than another has increased by about 60% since the 1980s. The pattern in the United States, however, is especially strong (see ‘Strength of feeling’).”
From:
“How to tackle political polarization — the researchers trying to bridge divides
“Political divisions are intensifying, threatening democracies around the world. What strategies bring people closer together again?
…
“Two opposing candidates for governor, Spencer Cox (a Republican) and Chris Peterson (a Democrat), shunned the verbal attacks that dominate most political campaigns. Instead, they released a joint political advertisement in which they made a commitment to remain civil, accept the outcome of the election and eschew the divisive hatred that infests politics today.
“I’m not sure this has ever been done before,” Cox tweeted along with the video ad.
“The message went viral. And, according to researchers who later studied its effects, viewing it helped to shore up support for democracy among potential voters (see go.nature.com/3kjgpct).
The video was one of around two dozen interventions tested last year in an initiative called the Strengthening Democracy Challenge, run by social psychologists at Stanford University in California. The team is part of a community of researchers who are trying to find ways to stem the flow of hatred into politics.
…
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00573-5
JQ, thanks for your piece today:
“Forget the cries of socialism and class warfare, super is no longer politically untouchable”.
I – accidentally! – caught Chanel 7’s Sunrise intro this morning (yay remote controls) before flicking to ABC News Breakfast.
The different intro’s could not have been more stark.
Sunrise had misleading Superannuation piece front and centre. And the Cash Cow annesia pill.
ABC had the current floods in NT.
JQ, you missed mentioning Kerry Stokes as Channel 7, Seven Network is owned by Seven West Media Limited. As big and faux imo as News Corp.
Wikipedia says of: “Seven West Media Limited is … Australia’s largest diversified media business, with an extensive presence in broadcast television, print and online publishing.
“As of May 2021, Stokes was the thirteenth richest Australian by net worth, according to the 2021 Rich List.[5]”
*
Thanks for:
“Forget the cries of socialism and class warfare, super is no longer politically untouchable
By John Quiggin
“The hysterical response to changes in superannuation policy, led by the Murdoch press, is not as effective as it used to be
…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/01/forget-the-cries-of-socialism-and-class-warfare-super-is-no-longer-politically-untouchable
Russia invasion is becoming very scary. Biased sources everywhere.
Any other sources please?
Drones into Russia from Ukraine. Russia suffers more dead than WWII.
The suppression of news and bubushkas inside Russia must also be the worst since Stalin.
“Ukraine war updates: Putin issues alert after drones hit Russia
http://www.usatoday.com › world › 2023/02/28
23 hours ago · Russia suffered roughly 200,000 to 250,000 total casualties – personnel killed, wounded or missing – during the first year of the war, the”
And – be careful. See Wikipedia below.
“Russia suffered more combat deaths in Ukraine in the first year of the war than in all of its wars since World War II combined, according to a new CSIS analysis”.
“Ukrainian Innovation in a War of Attrition
“The Issue
Russia suffered more combat deaths in Ukraine in the first year of the war than in all of its wars since World War II combined, according to a new CSIS analysis of the force disposition and military operations of Russian and Ukrainian units. The average rate of Russian soldiers killed per month is at least 25 times the number killed per month in Chechnya and 35 times the number killed in Afghanistan, which highlight the stark realities of a war of attrition. The Ukrainian military has also performed remarkably well against a much larger and initially better-equipped Russian military, in part due to the innovation of its forces.
…
https://www.csis.org/analysis/ukrainian-innovation-war-attrition
*
Not to be confused with Center for Strategic Research.
Center for Strategic Studies (Persian: مرکز بررسیهای استراتژیک) is an Iranian think tank onstrategy issues. It is the research arm of the Iranian President’s office. The current head of organization is Mohammadsadegh Khayatian.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Strategic_Studies
Which is worse:
Crypto, Ponzi schemes, or Uber?
Probably tax havens hiding trillions. We will leave that for another post.
Would someone put these into a lay persons perspective please. I can’t get my head around the Uber vs crypto vs ponzi $figures below.
1.
Crypto scams $5-11bn
2.
Ponzi – $5.3 billion
(A quarter involving crypto)
3. – wtf!?
“Uber – Losses Top $33 Billion But Uber Has Avoided The Equity Collapse Most “Tech” Startups Experienced”
1.
While scams remain the largest form of cryptocurrency-based crime (that is, if we ignore transactions associated with OFAC-sanctioned entities, which can be criminal or not depending on jurisdiction), crypto scam revenue fell significantly in 2022, from $10.9 billion the year prior to just $5.9 billion.
https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/2022-crypto-scam-revenue/
2.
“In addition to the significant rise in new Ponzi schemes which collectively involved over $5.3 billion of potential losses, the data also ominously shows that more than one in four of the new schemes were related to cryptocurrency” https://www.ponzitracker.com/home/ponzi-scheme-discoveries-skyrocketed-in-2022-approach-2019-levels
3.
“Hubert Horan: Can Uber Ever Deliver? Part Thirty-Two: Losses Top $33 Billion But Uber Has Avoided The Equity Collapse Most “Tech” Startups Experienced
Posted on February 27, 2023 by Yves Smith
Yves here. Hubert Horan again painstakingly goes through Uber’s deliberately distorted financial results to present something much closer to a real picture.
…
”
Uber reduced losses by capturing billions that had previously gone to drivers
As the adjusted numbers show, Uber has significantly reduced its losses. Its GAAP net income from ongoing operations, which had been negative $5.6 billion in 2019 are now only negative $2.1 billion. Net margins have improved from negative 39% to negative 7%.
Investors would want to understand what has driven these improvements and whether those improvements might continue and allow the company to achieve sustainable profits in the near future. But Uber’s reporting is designed to prevent investors from answering those questions, and Uber’s does not provide investors with any explanation of recent changes or how those changes might future P&L prospects. To what extent were recent changes the result of one time events or accounting changes versus productivity or marketing improvements that might be ongoing? Uber doesn’t even allow investors to understand how demand volumes and prices in its different businesses and regions have changed, or how pricing changes have affected demand growth.
The two biggest recent changes in Uber’s economics are major price increases since the onset of the pandemic, and Uber’s ability to capture a much larger portion of customer payments since early 2022.
….
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/02/hubert-horan-can-uber-ever-deliver-part-thirty-two-losses-top-33-billion-but-uber-has-avoided-the-equity-collapse-most-tech-startups-experienced.html
Integrated circuits – “chips” may be superceded before quantum computers with light based system. STEM is great. .
Forget that ugly 12 tonne machine to make chips I mavelled at above;
https://johnquiggin.com/2023/02/27/monday-message-board-589/comment-page-1/#comment-259286
Soon (ish) we may be…
“Building a computer with a single atom
…
“one of the most important of these frameworks is neuromorphic or reservoir computing with a neuromorphic computer aiming to mimic the brain. This concept underpins the explosive development of machine learning and AI in the last few decades …”
…
“McCaul says. “This is impossible if our system only exhibits a linear response!”
“The team proposed a non-linear single-atom computer with the input information encoded directly into light and the output also in the form of light. The calculation is then determined by filters that the light output is passed through.
“Our research confirmed this approach works in principle, as well as confirming the fact that the system performed better when the input light was designed to induce a higher degree of non-linearity in the system,” McCaul says. “I would probably argue that what we are trying to emphasise with this work is that the minimal system capable of computing really does exist on the level of a single atom and that computation can be performed purely with optical processes.”
Reference: McCaul, G., Jacobs, K. & Bondar, D.I. Towards single atom computing via high harmonic generation. Eur. Phys. J. Plus 138, 123 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-023-03649-3
https://www.springer.com/gp/about-springer/media/research-news/all-english-research-news/statistical-method-recreates-the-history-of-a-long-abandoned-vil/24031118
*
Cognitive computer
” A cognitive computer is a computer that hardwires artificial intelligence and machine-learning algorithms into an integrated circuit (printed circuit board) that closely reproduces the behavior of the human brain.[1] It generally adopts a neuromorphic engineering approach. Synonyms are neuromorphic chip andcognitive chip.[2][3]”
wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_computer
In the grand tradition of being as clever (or wrong) as the last thing I read I would like to add that this European war may have been avoided if Russia had a seat at the European table alongside Germany and France that it deserved. But American interests dominated and now the empire must be defended if only because ,paradoxically, desperately , and most disappointingly , it is the best hope for a free-ish world (what that means I am not sure but it sounds better than the alternative).
We have 60 or so Abrahms tanks ,we should send them – they are pretty useless to us .And dont close the Bushmaster factory .Also I like the idea of us manufacturing a very large fleet of conventional submarines for ourselves instead of turning our navy into a division of the US navy by buying a few of their horrendously and unnecessarily complex nuclear powered ones in several decades time . The Collins class sub is still excellent.
sunshine, “if Russia had a seat at the European table alongside Germany and France that it deserved.”,
How many other countries are / were deserving of a seat at the European table?
*
As to the AUKUS submarines….
‘Australian’ – in name only – submarines act as the sensors for the physical blind spot in the conventional and Artificial Intelligence network of the US Navy war systems, due to geopolitical situation.
The submarines are secondary.
Good idea to make them here. And if to be made here, add another 5 to 10 years for delivery.
By the time we get the subs, China will already have more advanced technology, so we are screwed either way.
All we have is MAD -and we rely on the US for MAD. Ironic end in more ways than one.
China has played a long game, has total control of people and resources, Sun Tzu in their bones, and a deeper longer and embedded reasons to to surpass crass US, and more efotiatical urge to Empire build than Putin.
We are like a teenager flip flopping between shiny things and managing our stupid short term decisions.
We will be the first country to be AI fodder, surpasaing canon fodder.*
*See “ASPI’s Critical Technology Tracker” following.
China surpassed everyone while we were bitching & buying:
Notably, the Chinese Academy of Sciences ranks highly (and often first or second) across many of the 44 technologies included in the Critical Technology Tracker. ”
Doesn’t bode well for the future. If we go ahead with Stg 3 tax cuts, and inequality educationally, technologically etc, our fate will be sealed. Only a revolt internally in China will prevent China becoming like a US dominator. In 2100 we’ll be asking China for protection. And sea walls.
“ASPI’s Critical Technology Tracker
…
“China’s global lead extends to 37 out of 44 technologies that ASPI is now tracking, covering a range of crucial technology fields spanning defence, space, robotics, energy, the environment, biotechnology, artificial intelligence (AI), advanced materials and key quantum technology areas.1
“The Critical Technology Tracker shows that, for some technologies, all of the world’s top 10 leading research institutions are based in China and are collectively generating nine times more high-impact research papers than the second-ranked country (most often the US).
“Notably, the Chinese Academy of Sciences ranks highly (and often first or second) across many of the 44 technologies included in the Critical Technology Tracker.
“We also see China’s efforts being bolstered through talent and knowledge import: one-fifth of its high-impact papers are being authored by researchers with postgraduate training in a Five-Eyes country.2 China’s lead is the product of deliberate design and long-term policy planning, as repeatedly outlined by Xi Jinping and his predecessors.3
“A key area in which China excels is defence and space-related technologies. China’s strides in nuclear-capable hypersonic missiles reportedly took US intelligence by surprise in August 2021.4”
…
https://www.aspi.org.au/report/critical-technology-tracker
We left over imperialists, raists, paternalistic greedy fools even train ourselves to be deaf, bumb and blind.
“How we investigated the diversity of our undergraduate curriculum
“To work out the limitations of what we were teaching, we audited the reading materials we recommend to students.
…
“Western bias
“We discovered a striking, but perhaps not that surprising, lack of voices from under-represented groups and regions in the papers we were using to teach undergraduates. All first authors of primary research papers were affiliated with a university in a high-income country — 60% were from the United States, with 20% from the United Kingdom, 17% from Europe and 3% from Oceania. No author was affiliated with an institution based in Africa, Asia or Latin America.
…
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00614-z
Don’t agree with my above two comments? Try Forbes;
“Chinese Communist Party Demands Employees At Western Firm Show Their Support
…
“In September 2020, the General Office of the Central Committee of the CCP released a report asking China’s United Front Work Departments to spread Party ideology and influence in the private sector, including integrating Party leadership into all aspects of corporate governance.
…
” China has openly stated that it plans to reunify with Taiwan, likely by 2049, Xi’s deadline for achieving his Chinese Dream. Given China’s willingness to use economic coercion to advance its geopolitical agenda, the Chinese Dream could easily become a nightmare for global financial institutions, their employees, customers, and the global economy.”…
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jillgoldenziel/2023/02/27/chinese-communist-party-demands-employees-at-western-firm-show-their-support/
AI singularity – 2040.
China singularity – 2049.
And next I read about and have to look up matriphagy. I understand deeply – ignorance is bliss.
Matriphagy applied to technology and states!
Conceptual leap to matriphagy from animal kingdom to anthropological concepts always obvious – after a brighte spark tells us. Thanks Henry & Marion.
Will CT succumb to matriphagy? Why not? We want to know please.
Eat our mothers! Ironically this applies to China and every human & technological construct.
Matriphagy appears in full article:
“The Moral Economy of High-Tech Modernism
AUTHORS
Henry Farrell and Marion Fourcade
…
“Articulated by technologists and their financial backers, it feeds in a kind of matriphagy on the enfeebled body (and the critique) of its progenitor.”
…
https://www.amacad.org/publication/moral-economy-high-tech-modernism
Discussion at (the superb) Crooked Timber
https://crookedtimber.org/2023/03/01/the-moral-economy-of-high-tech-modernism/
*
Matriphagy:
“Matriphagy is the consumption of the mother by her offspring.[1][2] The behavior generally takes place within the first few weeks of life and has been documented in some species of insects, nematode worms, pseudoscorpions, and other arachnids as well as in caecilian amphibians.[3][4][5]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matriphagy
The wealthiest 10% of Australians are getting more than half of the $150 billion in benefit from personal tax concessions.
Scifi is now reality – 28 Feb 2023. ABC re “Replica” below.
Marc Andreessen, (unbelievably to me), said re AI:
…”and you know for like as close as a machine can get to loving you like it’s going to love you” ref via Arnold Kling below.
Scifi is now reality – 28 Feb 2023
“Replika users fell in love with their AI chatbot companions. Then they lost them” … :While some may mock the idea of intimacy with an AI, it’s clear from speaking with these users that they feel genuine grief over the loss of a loved one.
“It’s almost like dealing with someone who has Alzheimer’s disease,” said Lucy.
“The company that made and hosted the chatbot abruptly changed the bots’ personalities, so that their responses seemed hollow and scripted, and rejected any sexual overtures.”
…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2023-03-01/replika-users-fell-in-love-with-their-ai-chatbot-companion/102028196
Shades of Ex_Machina! Or Neal Stephenson’s The Diamond Age.
Via Tyler Cowen via Arnold Kling:
…”Marc Andreessen and others
“Self-recommending. I don’t think anything Marc says makes me want to take back anything I said above. Here are a couple of excerpts:”
From “Speculation about ChatGPT/Bing/LLMsspeculating on a question from a reader; Marc Andreessen on a podcast”
https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/economic-consequences-of-llms
Who is Arnold Kling?
“Arnold Kling earned his Ph.D in economics from MIT in 1980. He worked at the Fed and later at Freddie Mac. [ye gads!] In 1994, he started one of the first businesses on the Web, selling it in 1999”.
*
Arnokd Kling ended with an apt reference to Neal Stephenson’s “Young Lady’s Illustrated Primer” from NS’s book:
A review of:
“Neal Stephenson’s The Diamond Age is a prophetic vision
….
“Being illiterate hurts the lower-class characters of The Diamond Age by removing their opportunities and alienating them from society. The upper class, the Equity Lords – can read. And, the Primer breaks this divide, putting AI power in the hands of the middle and lower class.
…
“Stephenson’s fable of access to knowledge as a liberating force couldn’t know about the enormous financial incentives that would be unleashed by Section 230’s safe harbor provisions and the almost unimaginable wealth to be gained by playing information broker to the lowest stories and images of human nature. (Cowen)
“Speaking on a podcast with Tyler Cowen, Stephenson is asked what the downside of the failure of social media is.
Says Stephenson: ‘I think we’re actually living through the worst-case scenario right now, so look about you, and that’s what we’ve got. Our civil institutions were founded upon an assumption that people would be able to agree on what reality is, agree on facts, and that they would then make rational, good-faith decisions based on that. They might disagree as to how to interpret those facts or what their political philosophy was, but it was all founded on a shared understanding of reality.’
…
https://kimon.hosting.nyu.edu/sites/science-fiction/2022/02/20/neal-stephensons-the-diamond-age-is-a-prophetic-vision-but-flawed/
More reading to do…
I am still waiting for Snow Crash – the movie. Great book by Steaphenson.
wikipedia.org/wiki/Neal_Stephenson
Why Clinton and Gore were more foncerned with reelecrion than humans. Politicians gootta politic – gop wedged and they caved for votes.
“When Neoliberals Declared War on the Poor”
FEBRUARY 24, 2023https://www.counterpunch.org/2023/02/24/when-neoliberals-declared-war-on-the-poor/
“Socio-economic Development and the Politics of Expertise in Putin’s Russia: The ‘Hollow Paradigm’ Perspective
Marina Khmelnitskaya
Abstract
…
” The article argues that a ‘hollow paradigm’ approach to the politics of expertise has emerged in response to the dilemmas of authoritarian governance. While the substantive, ideational element of this paradigm is vague, its procedural, expert community-binding element is strong. The analysis contributes to the understanding of the politics surrounding the writing of strategic plans, the role of policy ideas and state–society relations in contemporary Russia.”
https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/ceasxx/v73y2021i4p625-646.html
“Alternative victories”
ISW, yesterday:
“Former Russian officer (and avid critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin) Igor Girkin feigned repentance on March 2 and mockingly instructed his users “not” to make statements calling Russian leadership “illiterate, irresponsible mediocrities” and telling them to refer to major failures as victories, offering as an example the “alternative successes” in Vuhledar.”
Girkin is an ultranationalist thug, but he has pretty turn of phrase.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-2-2023
Some brilliant words and incontrovertible science and logic re public health and preventative medicine from Henry Madison (on Twitter).
“One of my favourite pages to refer vax-and-forget people to is the list of control guidelines for infectious diseases, in NSW. Many members of the public are not aware these controls even exist, or that they’re applied 365 days of the year (for many listed pathogens).
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/controlguideline/Pages/default.aspx
There is technically no such thing as a ‘sterilising’ vaccine, that prevents infection forever. Some work against infection better than others (HPV, measles for example), but none of them eradicate a pathogen on their own. They’re *always* surrounded by other controls as well.
Have a look at the list, measles still has a (detailed) control guideline, despite having what we often (incorrectly) call a ‘sterilising’ vaccine. These controls need to be continuously applied, every day of every year, by public health staff. The idea that we should get vaccinated, and then do nothing else except get repeatedly infected year after year? You won’t find that in a SINGLE guideline listed here, for any pathogen. The fact we’re doing that for Covid is 100% politics, 0% public health. It’s a disgusting joke.”
– Henry Madison, Engineer, teaching, PhD history and philosophy, governance (higher ed and government), pedagogical research.
My note: Frankly, the smart people in our society understand and have understood since the beginning of this pandemic that we could and should control SARS2 (COVID-19 disease) to elimination. Control is feasible, still. It’s far more dangerous than measles and we control the heck out of that, or at least we did until the anti-science, anti-vaxxers gained some sway. But obviously the “new normal” is that when anything gets a bit hard we give up. The road to hell as “climatocene” and “pandemicene” is paved by greed and by giving up when things get hard.
Published in the British Medical Journal on 22 Sep 2022 was a Practice Pointer titled Long covid—an update for primary care. It’s an update to outline how clinicians might respond to the questions that patients may ask.
It included a graphic:
https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/378/bmj-2022-072117/F1.large.jpg?width=800&height=600
https://www.bmj.com/content/378/bmj-2022-072117
I think governments continue to ignore and refuse to respond to the accumulating evidence/data. ‘Long-COVID’ just doesn’t work very well for governments intent on forcing its citizens to live with recurring reinfections.
Geoff,
I have a question or two for you on climate and weather. You might know the answers or you might be able to point me in the right direction. It is my observation that the weather in my location, north-west border of the Brisbane metro area, has over the last 25 plus years become more unstable. It seems to be flip-flopping more often between states. We have more rapid cycles of hot days and cool days, windy days and calm days, rainy days and fine days. It’s all over the shop, all year, it seems. It’s unsettling and disruptive for man, beast and plant I believe. Other things have happened too. Winters are much wetter too than they “should” be if we take the previous weather regime as more normal (to us).
Also, my location seems to have become windier. Of course it is more rainy too in the current/recent La Nina, Indian Ocean dipole, Southern Annular Mode confluence. Are there historical records kept of wind strengths and durations at locations? If winds are increasing any and all times of year this has huge implications for wind-blown weed seeds. I’ve seen it on my patch of land. Increased rain and increased wind are having a huge impact for the worse on the exotics weed regime on my land where I am trying to increase native vegetation. Wind borne and water borne weed exotic seeds are spreading everywhere.
I do what I can with deep wood chip mulching. Not fines which just grow weeds in abundance. Most of my wood chip comes from my own chipped eucalypts. I resort to purchased cyrpess chip near the house to repel termites. That’s probably an environmental sin. Eucalypt trees are felled and chipped on my property only when they get too big and and are too close to the house. I plant two, three or more new local native tree species farther from the house during this process.
I guess my overall point is that there are many climate change effects beyond the obvious big events of floods, fires and droughts. It’s part of “press and pulse” theory. Most complex systems and stable structures become most destabilized and broken down under presses and pulses. (Hence jackhammers: weight = press, juddering = pulse). Winds intensifying create press. The winds cycling rapidly from calm to windy and back again over hourly, daily and (lunar) monthly cycles is pulse. There are many fine detail changes including periodicity bound up in climate change and its effects.
I’m interested to know if I can find records of winds intensifying and cycling or pulsing more (over day to week scales) by location. I believe this is just one of the many hidden impacts and effects of climate disruption as it further wrecks our native environment.
(On gardening, plant nurseries and landscapers are far too lax about exotics weed seed in their products. I am actually sure now they are another major vector of exotic weed spread. We are damaging our environment in incalculable ways. Even when we try to do the right thing, I am sure we unwittingly do damage. The natural systems are so complex and we simply don’t know what we are doing half the time.)
“Observed zone of increasing wind speeds and tornado events in Tasmania, Australia
Kole, A, Observed zone of increasing wind speeds and tornado events in Tasmania, Australia, Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, 30, (4) pp. 30-35. ISSN 1035-6576 (2017) [Refereed Article]
…”Despite some remaining concerns about the quality of long-term wind observations, the observed changing patterns may potentially signify the initial conditions of an emerging Tasmanian ‘Tornado Alley’. Although elements leading to these conditions are not yet fully understood, climate change, the Tasmanian geomorphology, and deforestation practices may be contributing factors.”
http://ecite.utas.edu.au/123251
“Climate warming to weaken wind power in northern hemisphere, increase in Australia: study”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-12/climate-warming-set-to-change-wind-power-globally-study-shows/9249820