Another Message Board
Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.
I’ve moved my irregular email news from Mailchimp to Substack. You can read it here. You can also follow me on Mastodon here
I’m also trying out Substack as a blogging platform. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack.
John Quiggin 
Neoliberalism has shaped and distorted the society we inhabit; indeed, the past generation of youth are so unikely to have either experienced social housing, or to have been told about it. The energy shocks were the prime movers of the inflationary acsent; the blocking of the Supply Bill during Whitlam’s time, by the opposition leaders of Malcom Fraser and the treasurer, John Winston Howard was the biggest arsehole act out. When they used the Governor General Sir John Kerr to force the dissolution of the legitimate government, based on their refusal to allow the government to pay for even the most basic of expenses,, like publishing servants or the pension or the dole. Howard was either already a neoliberal conservative by then, or he was well on is way.
My grandparents did their bit, and they lived in the modest but excellent community housing of the day. If we go so low as the neoliberals, no matter their party political affiliation, we get a ramp up in crime and petty theft, of mentally unwell people, of sexual and/or violent assault being not only relegated to the streets, but simply unable to properly feed or house themselves. Sadly enough that’s the evolution in the Adelaide CBD. It is now unsafe to be out, once the late evening arrives, whereas a few years ago it was pretty safe. People are clearly hurting now, and the sequence of events that has led to this world is essentially the acts of those who drank the koolaid of the Neoliberal world view. We didn’t have to be in this current place.
Don, you are correct. We are in a lot of trouble. WAs you note correctly, this is due to neoliberalism in the form of market fundamentalism, privatization and crony capitalism. Each class below the 1% is being stripped of their assets, one class at a time, and being reduced to poverty. This was the plan all long. Neoliberalism has made its masterpiece.
There is not an area of public policy, economy or environment that is not descending into crisis. Health, housing, welfare, education, transport and energy are all in serious crisis or very soon will be. Inflation is out of control despite being hit over the head with a blunt instrument. Much inflation (not all) is coming from unconscionable profit rises, better known as profiteering or from resource and labor shortages. Most wages are flat to falling in real terms and have been for a long time. They cannot be the source of inflation.
Most people will not be able to survive this level of inflation on flat wages. Inflation in essentials is running at something like 10%. Very few can survive that on weekly wages or social security. Something has to change. A;ll neoliberal politicians have to be thrown out of parliament at the next available elections if we are to have any hope. This means all of the LNP and all of Labor. They have all betrayed the people.
Don said “we get a ramp up in crime and petty theft, of mentally unwell people”.
Unfortunately I have an example in my extended family this week of exactly your phrase Don.
The person in question is trained and capable of earning $80-100/hr.
At 50, after struggling with various drugs from the age of 14, they have, for the previous 2 years, become addicted to gambling on the pokies.
Gambling – Worse than any drug addiction. Available everywhere.
This person has come into contact with the authorities countless times, and in particular the prior 2yrs before they took up gambling.
Not once did any of those authorities recognise addictive personality & history and did nothing either to find out why or propose education or treatment. The RSL’s & pubs recently have just let a gambler run their life into the ground, and socialise the losses.
This person rang me on the weekend – they’ve contacted me 5 times in 20yrs – as they were completely at wits end, (I talk without judgement), after getting $500 pay on the Friday. Sunday they found themselves wondering a suburb 30kms from “home” (industrial unit with bed & shower) after losing all money on the pokies, and then desperately trying to weedle $100 from a person who owed them some time ago. Actualising as Don says “and/or violent assault being not only relegated to the streets, but simply unable to properly feed or house themselves”.
They had no food since Saturday om. And Sunday arvo $5 in pocket.
I asked how they will get food…
“No problem, I’ll just go to Aldi or Coles, fill a trolley and walk out”.
These are the people pokies owners use and spit out. And commit petty theft. Addicts & mentally unwell.
As a drug taker, they managed work, rocky relationships, productive work and a tax payer. As a gambling addict I’d say this person will be in gaol or dead in two years. The gambling has and cinstant pleas fir cash, made even the mother cut all ties and they haven’t spoken in 2yrs. Adding grief into the mix.
I have managed to get them a doctor’s appt, and potentially a late – very late – ADHD diagnosis.
Don, you and Ikon use neoliberalism as a prime factor.
Yet the Calvanistic and Presbeterian work ethic and god vs self support dogma’s in my opinion, are an underlying strata of concepts underpinning
– libertarianism,
– neoliberalism and
– acceptance of lack of feedback from policy so those who gain are shielded from the harms.
We need to out fundamentalism everywhere.
I grant Calvanism “In the 19th century, churches based on or influenced by Calvin’s theology became deeply involved in social reforms, e.g. theabolition of slavery (William Wilberforce,Harriet Beecher Stowe, Abraham Lincoln, and others), women suffrage, and prison reforms.[190][191] Members of these churches formed co-operatives to help the impoverished masses.[192] The founders of the Red Cross Movement, including Henry Dunant, were Reformed Christians. Their movement also initiated the Geneva Conventions.[193][194][195]” Wikipedia.
Yet the use and debasement of religion appears everywhere. Witness Scomo and 10yrs of conservative government between 2010-2020. Neoliberal first, or a religious debased dogma first?
Neoliberalism, fundamentalism and materialism are all forms of addictive ideology. As KT2’s family member’s life experience demonstrates, addictions are destroying lives. The points made by Don illustrate the personal suffering caused by such ideologies. Then Ikonoclast hit the nail on the head when he fingered the very rich for being the sole beneficiaries of such ideologies. Neoliberalism pushes the myth of the “trickle-down effect”. Other fundamentalist ideologies feed off the needs of those who are looking for a purpose in life. Then addictive behaviours are encouraged to funnel money to vested interests. Materialism is touted as the sole purpose of a lifetime of toil and struggle. The Cathedrals of Shopping, set up in cities and large suburbs, seek to draw every single dollar from those who struggle to make ends meet. These targets of materialism are cloistered in a cocoon of delusional needs and wants. To get more of these illusionary goods, people are given opportunities to gamble away their future wealth and seek quick returns for risky investments.
Now the attempts to protect people from the manipulations of the super-rich are half-hearted at best. Governments simply make too much revenue from addictive behaviours. When they increase taxes on tobacco and alcohol, they make themselves look good while impoverishing those most in need of help. Few politicians want to see an end to gambling, alcoholism, smoking, pollution and other social evils. That is because they know that such behaviours can easily be taxed. Only the very rich can avoid these taxes and therefore they do not try to stop politicians from taxing addictive behaviours.
A spiralling crime wave, out of control domestic violence, plus the rising levels of drug addiction and alcoholism are all ignored or, at best, given only token attempts at social intervention. Governments are simply not interested in terminating such a lucrative revenue base.
KT2: pokies are the worst, for they are by design instrumental in drawing people into the addiction and maintaining it. Sometimes they are claimed to be no worse than the old arcade games, but that never stacked up, for with those games you put in 20 cents and played the game to its conclusion. It didn’t promise you a few grand, you knew that once you reached the limit of your skill, the game was over and you were down 20 cents. Even the pinball machines could only go as far as giving you a “free” game or extra ball; they didn’t promise you actual spendable money if you prevailed; just an extra game on the machine. Nah, pokies were conceptualised around an entirely different deal: suck people in and keep their winnings lean and statistically below their losses. Not only does it kill the atmosphere in the hotels that have them, it funnels money away from the rest of the economy, and it can lead to catastrophic consequences for the addict, their friends, their family, etc. When an addict commits large scale fraud to fund their pokies habit, the system puts all of the responsibility upon the addict, all of the blame, and locks them up for the crime. The ignored “shadow” collaborators are those who build and sell machines designed to be addiction driving devices; perhaps some of the people responsible for this should also be in the dock, but of course they are not. Seldom are.
Russia’s tepid war
The highly regarded Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has published a country table of military expenditure: https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2023-04/2304_fs_milex_2022.pdf, It estimates the share of military expenditure in Russian 2022 GDP as 4.1%. Coming from anybody else, you would think this an amateur guess or a joke. The comparable share in the USA is 3.5%. The USA is not fighting a war anywhere just now, Russia is. In WW2, the share in the USA reached 40% in 1943-44 (Source: St Louis Fed https://www.stlouisfed.org/en/on-the-economy/2020/february/war-highest-defense-spending-measured#:~:text=WWII%20stands%20out%20as%20an,a%20quarter%20of%202018%20GDP ). It was probably higher in the Soviet Union and the UK.
The leading Russian ultra-nationalists Prigozhin and Girkin detest each other but agree that Russia’s only chance to defeat Ukraine is full mobilisation. It certainly looks to outsiders as if they are quite right. Putin continues to ignore such calls. The only possible explanation is that he thinks that his flimsy Bonapartist legitimacy would not survive the step. He is probably also right to think so. But he must also know that without it, Russia will be defeated in the field, and quite soon. Putexit looms.
Rank existential risk.
Which is worse;
a – Global heating,
b – Unrestrained AI
c – Ukraine + nukes + Putexit or,
d – Limited education of “134 million 11–18-year-olds in India’s schools”.
I’m going with d today. Lack of knowledge & nationalism is what gives us a, b & c.
From:
“In India, children under 16 returning to school this month at the start of the school year will no longer be taught about evolution, the periodic table of elements or sources of energy.
“The news that evolution would be cut from the curriculum for students aged 15–16 was widely reported last month, when thousands of people signed a petition in protest. But official guidance has revealed that a chapter on the periodic table will be cut, too, along with other foundational topics such as sources of energy and environmental sustainability. Younger learners will no longer be taught certain pollution- and climate-related topics, and there are cuts to biology, chemistry, geography, mathematics and physics subjects for older school students.
“Overall, the changes affect some 134 million 11–18-year-olds in India’s schools”.
From:
India cuts periodic table and evolution from school textbooks — experts are baffled
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-01770-y
It’s interesting that a fact James Wimberley cites indicates modern nations can spend up to 40% or more of GDP to save themselves from an existential threat. Imagine what we could do if we took climate change and pandemic diseases seriously. We could certainly do a helluva lot more than we are doing now and I suspect it wouldn’t cost 40% of GDP. Even if it cost 20% of GDP it would be a bargain.
Gambling update.
Said person had $15 in pocket yesterday. Spent hours last night at local RSL playing cheapo machine. All the while, watching marketplace for sales of any material goods able to be sacrificed for cash to feed addiction. Car – gone. Current transport – pushbike.
Gambling has overtaken food and drugs. Knowing this persons’ history, I am in awe of pokies power.
Reparations are in order.
*
JQ says it better than I:
“Introduction and summary
“Gambling policy in Australia is riddled with contradictions. Governments which
established monopoly powers over gambling so as to control the social evils it causes are now doing their best to promote those evils. At the same time as the scope of competition policy is being extended more widely than ever before, the ancient abuse of the sale of monopoly privileges is being revived on a large scale. The central theme of this submission is that existing policies are both economically
irrational and socially damaging. Regressive and arbitrary gambling taxes, and the implicit taxes associated with monopoly exacerbate the social damage caused by excessive gambling. The main conclusion is that gambling monopolies should be abolished and that policies should be developed to minimise problem gambling through restrictions on advertising and the design and operation of gambling services and venues.”
…
Submission to Productivity Commission Inquiry into Gambling
PROFESSOR JOHN QUIGGIN
Australian Research Council Senior Research Fellow James Cook University
“Ban gambling advertising”
OCTOBER 11, 2019
JOHN QUIGGIN
…
“The majority of the revenue for these forms of betting comes from a small proportio of heavy gamblers (about 5 per cent of all gamblers, IIRC). These gamblers have lots of problems caused by gambling, ranging from marriage breakdowns to bankruptcy. Not all heavy gamblers appear as “problem gamblers”, but the observation I recall on this topic is “a problem gambler is a heavy gambler who’s run out of luck”.
…
https://johnquiggin.com/2019/10/11/ban-gambling-advertising/
Marriage breakdown – tick
Bancruptcy – on the tip of the tounge.
Anti-science marches on, now in India as KT2 mentions above. Some may wonder that I am anti (excess) techno-optimism while being pro-science. But science and the history and philosophy of science teach us of the complexity and inter-disconnectedness of the natural world and of the problems of unforeseen and unintended consequences of ill-applied science and technology.
Orgel’s Second Rule sums it up: “Evolution is cleverer than you are.”
Before we interfere in natural processes and natural balances we need to consider matters carefully. A level of interference is unavoidable of course. No matter how we live, especially as a “civilized” 8 billion, we are leaving and will leave a footprint. That’s already a done deal. But seeking to grow and expand further in population and material production (and thus interference in nature) needs to come off the agenda.That way lies mega-collapse and probably human extinction: also the sixth mass extinction which ominously is already well under way.
Ikonoclast: “It’s interesting that a fact James Wimberley cites indicates modern nations can spend up to 40% or more of GDP to save themselves from an existential threat. Imagine what we could do if we took climate change and pandemic diseases seriously.”
In the YouTube video titled Climate Emergency: Is 1.5º really safe?, from time interval 0:23:11, a table of military spending for years 1939-44 (military outlays as % of national income) was presented:
In 1942:
USA: 42%
UK: 55%
Germany: 70%
Japan: 43%
Why are governments willing to spend money on the military to potentially kill people, but are reluctant to spend money on the means to mitigate the climate crisis that is likely to kill many of its own citizens?
As an obsessive-compulsive and addictive personality myself, I wonder that I never became addicted to gambling. I gamble very little, if at all. A Lottery ticket once a year is about my speed. My own theories are that neurological conformation and inculcated values and prejudices all play a role. From my own experiences, I can say obsessive-compulsive and addictive personalities can find some addictions compelling while others hold no sway over them. It varies addict to addict. It’s not simply about the first potentially addictive thing they encounter.
Where drugs are involved, abnormal brain receptors / brain chemistry (or abnormal siting of the receptors, perhaps surprisingly) will play a large and often determining role in what becomes addictive and what does not and this will be particular to each person. Where obsessive-repetitive behaviors are involved, seeking dopamine reward in the brain from behaviors not drugs, then formative experiences / traumas / behavior programming may be more involved. This is based on my non-professional reading and interpretation of some scientific papers.
Most people have weaknesses and vulnerabilities of some kind or another. A society based on ruthlessly exploiting people and every weakness they might have (which describes our society to a “T”) will cause untold damage to its citizens. This is what our society does non-stop and more efficiently than it does anything else. We have to change this or we will continue down the path of corruption and collapse set by unfettered competition and exploitation. For each individual’s sake and for society’s and humanity’s sake we have to change this.
The new normal?! No, just good old vaccine apartheid.
“… But if covid were indeed responsible for the full increase, it would be tied for the world’s fourth-leading cause of death. At current rates, it would kill more people in the next eight years than in the past three.
“Chart sources: WHO; UN; The Economist. Read our methodology here, and inspect all our code, data, and models on GitHub
“This article appeared in the Graphic detail section of the print edition under the headline “The new normal”
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/05/23/our-model-suggests-that-global-deaths-remain-5-above-pre-covid-forecasts
While it may have been a spectacular own goal by Ben Roberts Smith the press were also damaged – the quantum of legal fees remain a barrier to high quality journalism.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/ben-roberts-smith-took-the-fight-to-nine-it-was-a-disastrous-miscalculation-20230601-p5dd7y.html?btis=
Are NSW COVID-19 hospitalisations mostly above 1,000 the new ‘normal’?
NSW hospitalisations have risen from 1,366 (last Friday, May 26) to 1,459 (today, Jun 02).
See Matt’s latest graph:
Dr David Berger tweeted on Jun 01:
Prof Kathy Eagar tweeted on Jun 02:
Cheap EVs
This is not an advert because you can’t buy one, rather a landmark. Chinese carmaker Wuling has launched a very decent full-spec 4-seater mini-EV called the Bingo ( British video review https://youtu.be/rv6H7QZIUtc ). It ‘s very much an urban runabout and the top speed is limited to 60 kph: for inter-city travel, the Chinese take the bullet train instead. The news is the price, which starts at RMB 60,000 (US$8,480, A$12,795, €7,885). This is 20,000 RMB lower than claimed ICE competitor the Honda Fit, though with a 1.5 l engine the latter’s speed must be higher and a fairer comparison would be with the superior trim versions of the Bingo. An endearing feature is a remarkably large boot, big enough to store your kidnapped victims. Wuling even sell a mattress for greater comfort.
Up to now, EVs have all been dearer than competing ICEVs in the upfront price, which looms larger in our ape brains than total cost of ownership over time. At sticker price parity, it’s game over for the internal combustion engine. The isoprice frontier will surely advance upmarket as batteries get cheaper.
BTW, I have no idea if and when Wuling will market this car abroad. Better-known competitor BYD is bringing out a similar model called Seagull, and they certainly have global ambitions and build standards.
Just to reinforce above: “KT2 says: June 1, 2023 at 10:07 am “The new normal?! No, just good old vaccine apartheid”
The Voice(s) are strong in The Lobby.
I just can’t understand how a novel pathogen – Covid – can cause a pandemic, and we pander to partisan and corporate lobby groups, knowingly watering down an effective response.
Vaccine apartheid, private life saving property, and fear and freedon evidenced as fake news.
Covid will continue evolving with assistance from the greedy, the ignorant and paternalistic.
“Global plan for dealing with next pandemic just got weaker, critics say
“Watered-down language in the latest draft of the ‘pandemic treaty’ worries researchers.
…
“There was “a very significant watering down of language in this draft compared to previous drafts”, says Suerie Moon, a global-health-policy researcher at the Geneva Graduate Institute in Switzerland.
…
“The earlier, more ambitious version described how countries should respond to a future pandemic by frequently using words such as “shall” and “will” — but now some of those have shifted to “urge” and “support”, says Kelley Lee, a global-health researcher at Simon Fraser University in Burnaby, Canada. She also flagged language that would allow nations to opt out of directives in the document: the phrase “as appropriate”, for example, appeared 47 times. She says that this would give the member states of the World Health Organization (WHO), who are meant to sign the agreement, the ability to prioritize national interests over collective action.
…
“I have no doubt that there has been heavy lobbying by commercial actors across a range of industries” to arrive at this watered-down draft, Lee says. “We have seen during the COVID-19 pandemic that market-driven processes alone do not lead to equitable access to pandemic-related products.”
…
“… Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, mentioned the need to counter misinformation circulating among member states about the global agreement. In the United States, for example, social-media usersamplified a claim that the treaty would give the WHO authority over US policies during a pandemic. “We cannot mince words,” Tedros said, “the idea that this accord will cede authority to WHO is simply fake news.”
…
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-01805-4
“Mars declared unsafe for humans to live on as no one can survive on the planet for longer than four years.” – as per UCLA study.
It’s the radiation, folks. Mars has no atmosphere to speak of and a minimal magnetic field and magnetosphere. The solar radiation will kill humans and there’s no feasible protection long term.
Speaking of radiation, a common streaming service is showing the Japanese limited series, “The Days”, which dramatizes the Fukushima nuclear disaster. It’s well produced and harrowing. We shouldn’t forget these disasters and their on-going costs. Never again! Nuclear power should be totally abandoned. Do we need research and nuclear materials reactors? Yes, we need a few of them, hopefully in safe places and not on coastlines or fault lines.
One reviewer wrote “Netflix’s recreation of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster is disappointingly insight free. It’s obsessed with facts to the point where it neglects both character and story.” This is the level of our media these days. What ignorance! To be obsessed with facts is to lack insights, apparently! The drama is grueling and scarifying. It’s not supposed to be fun, in my opinion. It’s a Promethean story of what happens to humans when they play with nuclear fire and build up complex, unsustainable and unmaintainable systems too far. It never ends well. Things always collapse. It’s the same as what happens to humans when they play with genetic engineering fire, creating new viruses like SAR-Cov-2 in a lab, and then accidentally leaking it. And then pretending it’s not dangerous.
It seems humans can’t really be trusted with powerful technologies, when self-interested motives are too heavily involved: at least not without the kind of comprehensive social democratic oversight which does not occur in over-privatized systems.
Further to my above post, it looks like Fukushima’s melted reactors are the gift that keeps on giving… grief and cost.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-26/treated-fukushima-water-to-flow-into-pacific-oaten/102380592
“Fukushima’s Final Costs Will Approach A Trillion Dollars Just For Nuclear Disaster” – Clean Technica. Worth a search and a read.
While we are at it:
“IMF sees cost of COVID pandemic rising beyond $12.5 trillion estimate” – Reuters, January 21, 2022.
Yep, and I bet that cost is still going up. That tends to happen when you unleash and promote disasters rather than try to halt them.
The John Snow Project published on Jun 1 a Primer headlined US National Institutes of Health Study Finds Increased Risk of Long Covid After Reinfection. It began with:
https://johnsnowproject.org/primers/nih-study-finds-increased-risk-of-long-covid-after-reinfection/
That means as more people are re-infected with SARS-CoV-2 the number of cases with ‘long COVID’ will likely continue to grow.
In the absence of urgent preventive action, ‘long-COVID’ and repeat SARS-CoV-2 infections will likely result in enormous health, social, and economic costs for Australia.
If Australia continues to carry-on BAU, I’d suggest Australia could potentially experience hundreds of thousands to millions of people becoming permanently debilitated in the coming years.
Bulk of Covid infections from <9year olds. In my case 100%..
Rapid retrofit of ventilation with UV-C in return air ducts of primary schools. Rapid follow up to high schools. Mitigate superspreader events ala 10 person dormitory accommodation during school camps.
Simple proxy test for infection – a thermometer!
"Of all households transmissions, 70.4% began with a child,
"In-person school contributed to transmission
"More than 70% of transmissions in households with adults and children were from a pediatric index case, but this percentage fluctuated weekly," the study authors wrote.
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/more-70-us-household-covid-spread-started-child-study-suggests