One of the iconic moments in Australian sport occurred in at the 2002 Winter Olympics. Australians are strong in most summer sports, but we don’t have much in the way of a winter, so it was considered quite an achievement for Steven Bradbury to make the finals of the speed skating event. He was given little chance of winning, and was trailing the pack until the final seconds, when all four skaters ahead of him crashed spectacularly. Bradbury cruised past them to claim the gold medal, one of only six in Australia’s winter olympics history.
It strikes me that this is a metaphor for the current position of the EU. It’s long been regarded as an also-ran in the global economy, and geopolitics, trailing behind the US, China and Russia. And (at least 52 per cent of) the UK decided it could do much better outside. The EU has plenty of problems with the climate catastrophe, sluggish economic growth, the rise of the far-right and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
But compared to the crash of the others, it looks pretty good. It’s way ahead on decarbonization, has mostly recovered from the disaster of austerity, and has high living standards and (unlike the US) rising life expectancy. The far-right has had some wins, but nothing comparable to its takeover of the US Republican party. And Brexit has served as an awful warning to anyone contemplating leaving. The problem facing the EU now is how to deal with the queue of eager applicants.
Of course, prediction is difficult, especially about the future. The ECB could screw up again, and generate another long recession. The far-right could do better. On the other side of the coin, the Democrats could win convincingly enough in 2024 to put an end to the threat of Trumpism. But right now the EU seems to be dodging the worst of the global trainwreck.
John Quiggin 
Are there any statistics we can trust? About the EU or any other country or region? I am very skeptical at this stage. It seems to me that most of economics and statistics are deeply rigged, manipulated and corrupted in our current system. This paper below does not go that far but does raise some concerns. Personally, I doubt our governments are less corrupt than the examples in the paper.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09692290.2020.1769704
At this point, nothing is what it seems and nothing is sustainable in the global system. IMHO.
Good afternoon John,
There are other reasons why the EU is doing better than most.
Europe is not a victim of the Westminster System, or the delusion of Neo-Liberalism. Both are about power (the fear of losing power) and inequality is a design feature in both an winning is the priority, not achieving good outcomes.
The Scandinavians and other European countries have adopted the Socio/economic system of âInclusive growthâ. They have learnt that reducing inequality causes the economy to grow. They do not cut the economic pie differently, but make it bigger so everybody may benefit.
With Inclusive growth government/social support and the business sector are no longer in conflict. They have the same objectives even if for different reasons. The result is low inequality, high quality community services, like health and education, high levels of human cohesion, high taxes to make all this possible and: thriving economies.
In Australia the NDIS contracted PerCapita to do research into the sustainability of the system. PerCapita looked through the Inclusive Growth lens and found outcomes were totally consistent with the European experience.
Best wishes
I wonder if people can link to the indicators they are using to conclude the EU “looks pretty good” compared to “the crash of the others”.
I see claims with no links to data. The EU may be the best of a very bad lot. I hold that that kind of thing means little to nothing.
I find it particularly hard to believe that life-expectancy has risen in the EU during the endless COVID-19 pandemic. Where is this data coming from? There may be some dead cat bounce. Technically, it is survivor bias. Countries showing a turnaround, front-loaded many of the deaths of their old and vulnerable people in the early years. The apparent improvement is very much a statistical quirk. Of course, the USA has outdone itself and keeps killing people at such a rate from C-19 that a turn-around from survivor bias has still to manifest itself there, if ever.
At this point, I expect a continuous decline in global life expectancy for decades and maybe indefinitely until human extinction (without predicting a date for that).
Yanis disagrees
Yanis refutes himself when he mentions (in passing) emissions trading. For all its rigidities, the EU has managed to introduce an effective carbon price where the US has failed. There’s a pretty simple test here. As I point out in the OP, the EU is far ahead of the US in decarbonization.