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John Quiggin 
Poland is buying arms like crazy. No German or French ones, as those nations tend to make strange complaints about democracy and EU law.
https://www.nzz.ch/international/polens-armee-reform-aufruestung-und-wachsender-einfluss-ld.1753703?utm_source=pocket-newtab-de-de
Polnish hysteria about an aledged threat of a Russian invasion dates back long before the rise of PIS and the invasion of the Ukraine. If anything, that invasion has proofen beyond any doubt how little of a conventional threat Russia always was and that limited potential is getting smaller and smaller with every day.
Curiously, Polnish solidarity with the Ukraine still knows some very special limits
a)No German company shall reapair tanks in Poland without sending the complete construction plans to mandatory Polnish subcontractors. Ok so far so odd.
b) It gets odder: No Ukrainian wheat shall enter Poland and demanding anything else is a grave insult to the Polnish nations.
Also just listened to some German “security expert” recently. Among other demands to just deliver anything, he wants more support for the builtup of an Ukrainian amunition production. Seriously? Do people ever think. Amunition dependency is the best possible way to keep the Ukraine in line later on after a not so improbable victory against Russia which might well leave the Ukraine with the otherwise by far largest, best equipped and best trained military in Europe.
One cannot just asume based on limited teritorial gains that Russia is on par or has an advantage right now. That army might just evaporate with no amunition and no will to fight at any point, maybe in combination with some internal fighting in Russia.
There is no reason whatsoever to asume a builtup of amuniton production would be easier than one distributed arround the west.
Or maybe the NZZ got it right and the biggest military will soon be the Polnish one. Not a fun scenario either.
EV update
Wuling’s subcompact electric Bingo car is selling well in China, at prices from $8,682 to $12,093. I doubt if there is any ICE competitor at this price. https://cleantechnica.com/2023/09/25/wuling-bingo-sales-have-hit-100000-units-in-china-since-launch/
The same company has launched an entertaining one-seat EV delivery vehicle, super- narrow for threading its way through Asian street markets, but with four wheels and a proper cab. https://cleantechnica.com/2023/09/16/the-saic-gm-wuling-jv-is-back-with-another-potentially-game-changing-product-the-wuling-e10-mini-delivery-vehicle/
EV update
Wuling’s subcompact electric Bingo car is selling well in China, at prices from $8,682 to $12,093. I doubt if there is any ICE competitor at this price. https://cleantechnica.com/2023/09/25/wuling-bingo-sales-have-hit-100000-units-in-china-since-launch/
The same company has launched an entertaining one-seat EV delivery vehicle, super- narrow for threading its way through Asian street markets, but with four wheels and a proper cab and body. https://cleantechnica.com/2023/09/16/the-saic-gm-wuling-jv-is-back-with-another-potentially-game-changing-product-the-wuling-e10-mini-delivery-vehicle/
Another ‘game changing’ announcement about batteries? Apparently NASA has cracked the code for replacing lithium batteries, using sulphur-selenium on graphene cathodes solid-state architecture technology that’s “close to commercializing”, with “triple the energy density” of around 500 W-h/kg.
https://technology.nasa.gov/patent/LEW-TOPS-167
Perhaps we may see EVs with 2000 km range battery that won’t combust or explode soon?
Or perhaps there are suitable applications for longer-range aviation?
See the YouTube video titled NASA has cracked the code for replacing lithium batteries: ‘triple the energy’, duration 0:09:28.
Geoff: as you imply, battery “breakthroughs” in the lab are ten a penny. I suggest paying more attention to less dramatic announcements from people who make batteries for a living, such as CATL.
Ooooh, that is a cute little car!! Golly.
Here is the list of things I need to do before I can buy one (even in my imagination since we don’t have them here):
switch to elec water heater switch to elec clothesdryer wait for stupid new PUC policy to go away (this one is optional … ) tent home for pesties, then figure out how to swing solar panels *and* battery system (!!??) find decent job that doesn’t make me want to drop ded, to pay for it all … figure out the charger panel thing
So, it’s a bit of a to-do. But it’s fun to think about!
Mind you, meanwhile, I suppose I could look into at least telling the power company that we’d like to be on renewables. (I’m not sure if we did already or not, or, if it’s an option here. Details, there are always details.)
But again, it’s a very cute little car.
I hope your arm is coming along, James.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released today (Sep 27) Causes of Death, Australia, including statistics on the number of deaths, by sex, selected age groups, and cause of death classified to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD).
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/causes-death-australia/2022
Covid Live stats for deaths in Australia:
30 Dec 2022: 17,033 cumulative deaths
22 Sep 2023: 22,754 cumulative deaths
5,721 deaths in 266 days, average 21.5 deaths per day
Current trajectory towards 7,850 deaths for full year-2023
I do expect the lots of money now being spent on battery R&D will result in better batteries and that the tools of science have never been better equipped to support doing so. And manufacturers won’t have problems committing to vehicles using them. That can be developing new chemistries as well as reducing the manufacturing costs of existing sorts. Actually trying, really hard, does, not surprisingly, tend to deliver results, especially if the results sought and the means are realistic – and in this I think they are. It still needs commitment to aggressive decarbonising, that we aren’t seeing.
I think halving the costs of EV and solar batteries is quite achievable, as is doubling of (or better) the energy density – the combination would make it game over for most fossil fuels. Of course if fossil fuels didn’t enjoy a state supported enduring amnesty on paying externalised costs (climate and health) it would be game over already; renewables and EV’s have come that far that they are competitive now, even with FF incumbency and regulatory capture ie cheating.
I note that Albanese is embarking on a new round of spruiking support for renewables – which is a good thing but seems to be defensive politics in the face of criticism rather than evidence of deep conviction. The ongoing political decoupling by Labor under him of it’s apparently boundless support for export fossil fuel miners from it’s support for renewables as domestic climate policies deserves serious criticism; it is not like anyone in government doesn’t know the problem is every bit as serious as claimed within the IPCC reports.
Of course sometimes trying really hard won’t be enough. For example I don’t expect we will colonize Mars because the gap to bridge is way too large. (I may do a post in Sandpit about grand space optimism and unrealistic hype). I don’t expect the climate problem will ever go away but making the consequences much less severe seems well within our capabilities. More severe the less hard we try.
I was surprised when Russian tennis star Medvedev said that he stayed at school until 18 whereas most athletes finish at age 12.
Russia is a very strange place, a step back into medieval times.
After all this time Russia has nothing to contribute to this world except terror.
Ken Fabian; – “For example I don’t expect we will colonize Mars because the gap to bridge is way too large.”
You may wish to view the YouTube video titled Why a Mars Colony is a Dangerous and Stupid Idea, published 27 May 2022, duration 0:16:39.
Electric carts – from James Wimberley
GM’s subsidiary Brightdrop, one of many competitors in the important but humdrum electric van market, has come up with an offbeat product that looks to me like an important innovation. The starting point is the humble wheeled delivery cart used to move light goods around in shops and warehouses. Brightdrop propose to turn this into a very slow EV. They add small electric motors and a battery– think scooters – , for a maximum speed of 3 mph, ie human walking. Also enough intelligence for the cart to know and report where it is, what it is carrying, optional refrigeration, and interfaces with the supply chain software of the vendor and the purchaser.
The cart is useful within its home location, but can venture into a city street, up a ramp into a van, and within the destination, say a main street retailer. This flexibility could avoid a lot of transshipping to get the product onto the selling shelf. With luck, these carts could become ubiquitous, a last-yard version of the standard shipping container and shipping pallet. I hope broad IP claims won’t get in the way.
Geoff, I mostly doubt space colony viability for the intractable economics. Being interested and enthusiastic enough to get informed about it ultimately undermined my original optimism. SpaceX aiming impossibly high, where falling short still leaves them dominating the space launch market – which is almost entirely about taxpayer funded contracts – seems a workable business plan, but the unrealistic hype is distasteful. Maybe better for The Sandpit…
Hi people! The intergoggly says that TCM may be available internationally if you have a certain VPN.
So I am using that as an excuse to say that at noon PST, they are putting on “Safety Last,” which I’ve wanted to see for ages. If you’ve never seen Harold Lloyd, he’s a treat! They are doing a run of 100 year old films during the day. “Captains Courageous” is also good and that’s on later.
I had to tell someone!
What you have been waiting for…
… The Seaweed Manifesto!
Click to access The-Seaweed-Manifesto.pdf
Actually pretty sensible, with reputable authors (plus an eccentric French rock musician and chef from Burgundy as front man) and a page of references.
I’ve surely said this before, but while the highest honour an economist like our host can aspire to is a pseudo-Nobel prize from the Bank of Sweden and a handshake from the King, a phycologist who plays their cards right can become a minor coastal goddess like Kathleen Drew-Baker. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kathleen_Mary_Drew-Baker
Wow, Musk aproofingly retweet a call to vote for AFD, with some crude Melonie story about the evilness of supportung sea rescure of refugees in the mediteranian sea. He sure never even was an US democrat, but i got to say, he did manage to go below my rather very low expectations there. He seems to be in full conspiracy and xenophobia Republican support mode, joining with de Santis. (source in German) https://www.br.de/nachrichten/bayern/vor-landtagswahl-in-bayern-musk-teilt-aufruf-zu-afd-wahl,TrGZvV1?utm_source=pocket-newtab-de-de
Arjun Murti posted on 30 Sep 2023 at Substack an op-ed headlined Five Big Calls To Get Right Over The Next Ten Years. It included:
https://arjunmurti.substack.com/p/five-big-calls-to-get-right-over
The graph (Exhibit 1) was included in a tweet by US petroleum geologist Art Berman on Oct 1:
It seems Iran has now plateaued…
Russia has probably peaked…
UAE is close to peaking…
Saudi Arabia has been on a plateau for years, and is probably at the beginning of a decline…
That leaves only Iraq, Canada and perhaps USA with any promise of further significant crude oil production growth in the coming years. With little evidence of oil demand peaking anytime soon, expect crude oil and petroleum fuel prices to keep rising.