Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.
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John Quiggin 
Why would anyone buy a new ‘light weight’ (i.e. <4.5 tonne GVM) ICEV anymore?
Petroleum fuels are only going to get more expensive and become scarcer:
The top-3 (i.e. USA, Russia & Saudi Arabia) producing countries represent more than 40% of the global share of crude oil production.
Meanwhile, it seems CATL’s new LFP (lithium-ferro-phosphate) battery, claimed to have zero energy storage capacity degradation in the first 5 years of use, is beginning mass production this year. The Electric Viking was waxing lyrical about it in a YouTube video published Apr 13, titled CATL’s new LFP battery lasts 3 million miles with 0% degradation for 5 years, duration 0:11:10. Apparently, it’s super dense, charges rapidly and doesn’t wear out in vehicles (compared with other battery technologies). The life of this battery technology is apparently more than 15,000 charging cycles.
The economics of energy is a current focus of governments. Is it a matter of supply? Only if you apply the strict definition of supply : available; wanted; and legally provided. There is abundant energy but its supply is being hoarded for future speculative profits. But the hoarders cannot wait too long. If they drive up energy supply price too high, the substitution of other energy options and the entry of high cost suppliers will intervene. This may actually lower the supply price.
If it is not supply factors it may be market demand determinants that are driving up energy prices. The two biggest buyers of energy are the People Republic of China and the United States of America. This relates to all global energy demand. It is not just oil. Since President Biden signed the US $1 Trillion dollar alternate energy bill, demand for alternate energy supplies has soared worldwide. China is holding back on the supply of rare earths, it is trying to monopolise the production of solar panels and it mass produces electric vehicles better than any other global competitor. But China also consumes more available energy supplies than any other country with the notable exception of the USA.
Overconsumption of energy is occurring globally. It is not the fault of the Ukrainian war or the wars in the Middle East or even the hoarding of Saudia Arabian oil. No it is due to the excessive effective demand of the USA, the PRC, Canada, Japan, India and the Euro zone. These large markets are outbidding smaller buyers from Africa and Latin America.
The USA has always over consumed energy supplies; but they have recently been joined by China and India. The Euro zone also over consumes energy supplies. Excessive demand will always drive up prices. The slow transfer to cheaper alternate energy supplies is making this worse. Then there are problems of barriers to entry into the energy retailing markets. Large hydroelectric companies are not interested in new entrants to its pumped hydro market. But the same could be said for any energy retailer. They manipulate consumer demand by offering discounts that are only used to eliminate new entrants.
There is no one answer to the high energy prices currently operating in global markets. It will take a concerted effort from G7, G20 and even G30 nations. If one large market is not covered by any global pact, then any such agreement will not work. Then there is the added problem of illegal transfers of energy supplies. This is a hidden issue as no country is willing to call out the illegal activities of some energy supplies. This insidious dark economy trade is very profitable to the criminals that facilitate this leakage of global supply.
Before looking at the supply side, governments need to firm up their regulation of the monopsony power of retailers. Then they need to regulate against price gouging. Finally they must sit down with like minded government representatives and negotiate an enforceable agreement on illegal energy transfers worldwide. This will require commitment at the highest level of government.
There is a lot to do and not enough political will to get it done quickly. Effective demand must be unfettered by market distortions. This is the role of government regulators. But these regulators need political support at a national and international level.