Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.
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John Quiggin 
The USA is having its worst flu season since 2002-2003 when it began began tracking flu.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1890508904179597312.html
Vaccination rates are low and people’s immune systems have been damaged by the now endless waves of COVID-19. Of course most people and the authorities are still in complete denial that COVID-19 damages all organs and systems of the body including the immune systems One wonders how long the insane denialism and anti-vaxxing lunacy can persist. It’s still on the rise of course with Trump and Kennedy in the ascendancy.
“It’s not just the flu that is going around… Gaines County, TX, where the epicenter of the measles outbreak is, has one of the lowest measles vaccination rates too.” – Eric Feigl-Ding.
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Tern from the UK points out on Threadreader how he has not been sick for 5 years despite being a pastor who visits hospitals and meets people all the time for pastoral care. Bottom line? He wears an FFP3 mask. It’s actually a testament to how good the FFP3 masks are (when paired with vaccination) that he has avoided being sick from infectious airborne diseases since the start of COVID-19, given the exposure he has had due to his dedication to his caring profession. Multiple layers of protection really do work.
Tern also nicely discriminates between being sick and catching something, though the doctor, like most doctors these days, seems slow on the uptake. Tern cannot know for sure that he hasn’t caught something but he does know he has not been sick from anything. The point of this is that if he has caught something (through his layers of protection) it has been a tiny titre, a tiny dose, as just a relatively few virus particles would have passed through. In that case, especially being vaxed, his body has shut down and killed all the invaders very early and it is very, very likely that none got beyond the nose or maybe the very upper airways. Net result? Whole of body protected from about 99.9999% of all damage.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1891222247437742241.html
Flu, Covid and other airborne diseases are now coming in endless waves because of the mindless, anti-science rejection of all protections by almost everyone. Please try to be one of the last sensible persons on the planet. Protect yourself and others. Vax, mask (N95 or better), distance, test, isolate when necessary and avoid closed rooms, indoor areas and buildings as far as possible. Steer clear of coughers, sneezers and snifflers. They may only have allergies but you do not know that.
Full disclosure, I just had my 6th or 7th (I think) COVID-19 vaccination. I hardly go anywhere and when I do I wear an N95 mask, distance and practice what I call “defensive breathing” or surreptitious breath holding when dubious people get too close. I have not been sick in 5 or 6 years discounting last summer when I gave myself heat stroke by foolishly working hard in extreme heat and humidity.
At the same time, after this latest COVID-19 vaccine, I had no bad reaction early but have since felt a bit “off” for a couple of days. I have no idea why. It could be anything. It could even be that endless COVID-19 vaccines will slowly take their toll on people too. But for the great majority of people, the great majority of the time, getting vaxed is far safer than the alternative. If COVID-19 had been eradicated (not sent extinct which would be impossible) then the need for multiple recurring vaccines would have been much reduced. The (relatively small overall) hazard of having to be endlessly vaxed is the result of not controlling and eradicating infectious diseases in the first place. When will they ever learn? Humanity, I mean.
Just found this.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-24/trump-presidency-changing-democracy-message-for-australia/104970992
Alan Kohler gets it. He’s saying all the things I just said in “Dispensing with the US centric…”. He is saying it in less melodramatic and catastrophising language than I employ (for rhetorical effect) but the net meaning is the same.
Basically, Australia is on its own in every sense. The question is, “What can we feasibly do to make ourselves safer?” This question is very hard and maybe impossible to answer now. We can try certain things that would seem wise on balance but there is no guarantee at all that the even wisest course possible will still not go entirely pear-shaped. “Pear-shaped” is me avoiding more melodramatic, catastrophising language.
China has quickly absorbed and operationalised the lessons of Trump’s betrayal of Ukraine. The lessons are that Trump betrays democracies, betrays allies and treats with dictators for short term gains, even petty personal gains.
Live fire exercises, unannounced until the last minute and conducted in the Tasman Sea by three Chinese ship, send Australia a clear message. You operate in our front yard, the South China Sea, and we will operate in your front yard, the Tasman Sea. You conduct freedom of navigation exercises with your undependable ally. We will conduct freedom of navigation and unannounced, until the very last minute, live fire exercises between puny you and an even more puny ally, New Zealand while your supposed real ally, USA, is nowhere to be seen.
The Chinese ships, according to the NZ defence minster are, “extremely capable. One has 112 vertical launch cells and has reported (an) anti-ship ballistic missile range of 540 nautical miles (1,000 kilometers).” Other reports note missile air defences, land attack ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, the last with a potential range of 1,000 miles (1,600 km).
“The Type 055 is set to become something of a nautical bogeyman for Western and Asian navies. China calls them destroyers, but the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency’s 2019 report on Chinese military strength describes them as guided missile cruisers. At 10,000 to 12,000 tons, and 590 feet long, they are actually slightly bigger than American Ticonderoga-class cruisers.
They are also armed to the teeth, with primary firepower coming from 112 vertical launch system (VLS) tubes that can launch a variety of weapons, including HHQ-9 surface-to air-missiles, YJ-18 anti-ship missiles, and YU-8 rocket-propelled anti-submarine torpedoes. Chinese media did not identify the land-attack missile, but a likely candidate is a navalized variant of the CJ-10 land-based cruise missile.” – The National Interest.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/chinas-newest-destroyer-capable-launching-land-attack-cruise-missiles-192111
John Quiggin points out, frequently, that surface ships are relatively easy to sink with air power and missiles. This might well be true in peer-to-peer conflicts with peer-matched technologies and/or when the surface flotilla is over-extended, distant from bases and support, especially air support. However, sinking a capital ship of a superpower, if it were ever done by a minor power, would open the door to massive retaliation.
Of course, nobody is recommending sinking the Chinese Type 055 “destroyer” for conducting an unnanonced live fire exercise in the Tasman Sea. This situation requires discretion and diplomacy. It also requires a fundamental recognition that the USA is no longer a dependable ally. IMHO, Australia should withdraw its token reconnaissance and other forces from the freedom of navigation exercises in the South China Sea.