Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.
I’m now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here.
John Quiggin 
John Quiggin has produced a bunch of articles saying the USA is finished. I don’t think this is an exaggeration of his position. I also think he is right. Until and unless Trump is removed from power, the USA will keep falling into a bottomless pit. It is difficult and perhaps impossible to think of one thing the Trump W.H. is doing right.
Climate Change? Disaster. Human Welfare? Disaster. Aid? Disaster. Medicine and Health? Disaster. Trade. Disaster. Diplomacy? Disaster. Alliances? Disaster. Ukraine? Disaster. Global Security? Disaster. Science? Disaster. Research and Universities? Disaster.
How about this? UK’s ability to launch its nukes? Disaster. They depend on the USA.
“The UK can decide when and if to use them, but Britain needs technical and logistical support from the US to be able to operate them.” – ABC.
That sentence has a real contradiction in it. It is London to a scorched brick that Trump won’t help the UK anymore.
France has about 300 nuclear warheads. These are now the only credible non-conventional deterrent against Russia. The USA and UK are out of the picture. Continental Europe faces Russia alone.
Pronouns for bigots
Via a horrifying LGM post (https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2025/03/its-just-a-tell-when-someone-is-lying-all-the-time) on a live Trump/Musk threat to the Mauna Loa observatory, home to the Keeling curve of the concentration of atmospheric CO2, the most important number in the world:
“It is unclear what would happen to operations at the observatory if the office were to close. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt declined to comment, writing in an email, “As a matter of policy, we do not respond to reporters with pronouns in their bios.” “
Hawaii is run by Democrats. It’s up to them to save the observatory, with or without foreign funding, which they surely don’t need. I can’t however resist a comment on Ms Leavitt’s deranged priority, and her ignorance of the English language.
A short list of 72 English pronouns in current use. It is very hard for anybody (PRONOUN), and few (PRONOUN) would be up to the irrational challenge, to write more than a couple of sentences without using at least one (PRONOUN) or several (PRONOUN).
(The last group are called indefinite; the starred ones can also function adjectivally and are then called determiners)
The wide and sensible adoption of a gender-neutral singular they should lead to a singular themself, but I haven’t seen it yet in the wild. My source lists whomever but I’m a bit sceptical.
I would say that Trump is almost there, by his employment of archaic laws and ICE he can circumvent, ride over or just ignore judicial direction. The FBI, CIA and DOJ have been completely corrupted to his will – there is no separation of power. All this combined with his anti vaxx nonsense has promoted a sense of non reason among his followers. Plus the collapse of the Democrats, apart from AOC and Bernie Sanders, and he’s got the whole thing wrapped up.
James,
It’s pronoun apartheid. All pronouns are *not* created equal. “WE do not respond to reporters with pronouns in THEIR bios.” WE do not respond to THEM.
We / Their = Us / Them = Us versus Them.
Yes, it’s in the pronouns. Language as in-group bonding and rehearsal for violence against out-groups. It says, “*We* are people. *They* are not people.”
It’s the road to fascism. To be more precise, it’s not the road to it, the Trumpists are already there.
Iko: Come off it. Fascism and other bigotries are of course expressed through the linguistic tools at hand, but your thesis takes linguistic determinism to absurd lengths in accusing the humble pronouns of original sin. The pronouns “they/them/their” require a plural noun or noun phrase antecedent, infinite in number and various in category. To pick a few at random, these include: the disciples: the party rank-and-file: the loyalists; the elect; the angels: my friends; the honoured war dead; the Tuskegee airmen; the victims of Treblinka; the Valar; the budgerigars in your garden; the tapeworms; the galaxies in the local group; the zeroes: the real numbers; the proofs; the self-contradictions. The Valar and the self-contradictions are Donne’s “things which are not”, but they slot into the grammatical template just fine.
James,
As usual, I did not make myself at all clear. I meant, “It’s in the pronouns *they*, the Trumpists, use.” It is in this context that I was saying that the Trumpists are saying: “*We*, the Trumpists, do not respond to “them” (all non-Trumpists and anyone else who is different from *us* Trumpists.”
So, I was not and I am not implying linguistic determinism. Rather, I was saying that in shared language people can in-group bond and can then egg each other on and exhort and “verbally rehearse” for violence against out-groups.
Again, the miscommunication is entirely my fault. I did not make myself clear in this written medium. Very likely, conversing face-to-face, you would have realised, “He’s being ironic and even very sarcastic about the Trumpists. His comments are about their language and how they are self-revealing their bigotry through their own pronoun use even as they castigate their targets.”
I hold that there is linguistic persuasion and moral (and immoral) suasion but not that there is anything like hard linguistic determinism. I hold that our lexicon sets of language, idiosyncratic and shared, colloquial and elevated, common and technical do at least partly, and maybe quite strongly determine the nature and extent we can actually think: determining to that degree what is understandable to each of us and even conceivable to each of us. Creative language use plays into this too.
For example, I could say to you, “The Orangearians are causing a lot of people a lot of grief, misery and death. You know… the *Orange* (pause) *Aryans*.” You would get the reference to Trumpist Neo-Nazi Aryanism.
Ralph Nader calls out the cowardice of the Anti-Trump American establishment.
https://www.counterpunch.org/2025/03/17/stay-silent-and-stay-powerless-against-trumps-tyranny/
Is it cowardice or are they giving Trump enough rope to hang himself? I hope it is the latter and that they have a plan. Either way, the increasing majority of people who now do not agree with Trump, will have to act.
“According to a poll conducted by AtlasIntel between March 7 and 12 among 2,550 respondents, Trump’s approval rating currently stands at 47 percent, while 52 percent disapprove of his job performance. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points.
This is down from previous polls conducted by AtlasIntel in January and February, which found that 50 percent approved Trump’s job performance, while 50 percent disapproved.
AtlasIntel was the most accurate polling company of the 2024 election, according to veteran pollster Nate Silver.” – Newsweek.
Sunshine ;-
There is a theory that ,once a person goes far enough down the fascist road, the need to improve personal economic circumstances ranks well behind the need to punish someone . People can be prepared to cop some economic punishment . Striking out at actually existing demonised people is fulfilling in a way that sticking to ,or incrementally modifying ,our neoliberal project that promises eventual returns is not.
It is fear of loss of rank that is the primary motivator .In our neoliberal culture of constant status checking this is especially notable .Sustained and worsening inequality makes the ground fertile but fear of loss of status is potent . This explains the fact that fascism is not primarily seen in ,or driven by, the working class as is sometimes thought. Trumps support amongst the working class is no stronger than any other Republican president in the neoliberal era .
Public punishment and displays of cruelty ,such as the current treatment of the trans community ,serve to shock us and cement fascist power .It says ” Look – we can do this ,the unimaginable , we even laugh as we do it -your reality is broken and we have made a new one ,you are impotent ,its too late” .
Ha. I don’t even know what you two are arguing about, really. Grammar is not one of my areas of strength. I’m glad though that others are keeping it going (grammar) (civilization).
I don’t know if there’s a plan either. Also, I don’t even know enough to have an opinion on what Schumer did, because I don’t know exactly what he meant. (This doesn’t mean I never knew – I might have known, but forgotten. Just to absolve my teachers! But I really should know this stuff better.).
I don’t know why Congress couldn’t pass a different budget, or what-all, bill later. I assume he didn’t just mean that the president may or may not sign the thing – that’s always true. And, no one in the media is explaining it to me (yet). Their procedures are unclear. Did he just mean we’d get blamed? I am not sure.
N,
Re Schumer:
Schumer: “As bad as that CR (Continuing Resolution) Bill was, and it was bad, a (Government) shutdown would be ten times worse.”
Commentator: “And it (the shutdown) would be blamed on the Democrats.”
Schumer: [Nods in agreement.]
Schumer also notes that they (the Trumpists) do not negotiate, implying that any and all attempts to negotiate a better bill would be fruitless. I am no expert on US national politics tactics and strategies but I can’t think of what else Schumer could have done.
Re: Linguistic determinism.
I am not arguing with James W. I agreed with him essentially. I don’t hold with linguistic determinism in its strong form either. My poor expression of my ideas was what led him to think I supported linguistic determinism. I then noted that I did support a less strict form of the idea which is called linguistic relativism.
“Linguistic relativity asserts that language influences worldview or cognition. …research has produced positive empirical evidence supporting a weaker version of linguistic relativity: that a language’s structures influence a speaker’s perceptions, without strictly limiting or obstructing them.” – Wikipedia.
I am not at all upset that James trenchantly criticised me, thinking I supported linguistic determinism. I am afraid though, he used sarcasm….
Note: This is posted in fun. 🙂
The best news of the year: China’s emissions have peaked
I posted before that the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics does not for weird cultural reasons publish most of its monthly series for January, and instead lumps them with February. These are just out. If you add the December data, you get an ad hoc total for 3 months. Irregular, but nothing dodgy about it. Here are some year-on-year changes from the year before.
China, 3 months Dec to Feb 2025 over Dec to Feb 2024, physical units, % change:
Thermal generation – 4.27 %
Electricity production +0.96 %
Coal production +7.56 %
Natural gas production +4.13 %
Gasoline production – 5.65%
Pig iron production +2.90%
Cement production – 4.29%
There is no monthly series for GDP, but you have the regular quarterly series.
For Q4 2024 over QW4 2023: + 5.40 %.
Source data all from https://data.stats.gov.cn/english Working in a downloadable spreadsheet: https://www.jameswimberley.es/Articles/Chinawende.xlsx
I’m a clumsy old guy working from home. Use at your own risk, and check before citing professionally.
The drop in thermal coal generation – 72 Twh in absolute units – is well outside any normal noise. I think we can confidently assert that growth in Chinese electricity demand is now more than met by renewables, so the peak in thermal generation has passed. Combine this with a significant fall in gasoline demand from rapid electrification, the tiny share of gas in generation, low growth in pig iron from coke-burning blast furnaces, and a historically normal GDP growth rate. China’s CO2 emissions have peaked, as I predicted in January,and have started to fall. Quite possibly the world’s. More on this later.
There is one possible reason for doubting this conclusion: the aberrant 84 mt growth in coal production, without any matching growth in demand, Unwanted coal is presumably piling up in stocks at the idled coal power stations, which are still being built for no good purpose. This is stupid, but why should we doubt the number?
Xi the ditherer will have to decide soon whether to follow Trump in a doomed defence of fossil fuels, or seize the golden opportunity Trump has handed to him to take on the mantle of leader of the global energy transition.
PS: PV installations in China in the January-February bimonth were 39.47 GW, returning to a more traditional y-o-y growth rate in total solar capacity of 14.6% after the heady 40% of 2024. It’s still growth much faster than total consumption, not a turndown, and is quite consistent with my peak emissions call above.
I can’t find a comparable number for wind, but it’s still growing more slowly. The government agency publishing installation data is a different one, the National Energy Administration. Its statistics are only in Chinese, so I have to rely on secondary press reports. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2025/03/21/chinese-pv-industry-brief-january-february-solar-additions-hit-39-5-gw/
It’s certainly a relief to have some good news. I will follow up
I have been banging on for some time that our housing and infrastructure needs hardening: an across the board upgrade to face increasing challenges from climate change. So far, I’ve heard nothing but crickets, as the saying goes. Of course, who would pay attention to the real basic needs and requirements of our current predicament? Certainly not the government powers that be and not the big business “old wise heads” of our society. I mean, they don’t even pay attention to the best scientists or the best economists in the world.
Finally, there is a news story with a belated recognition of what we face.
“Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred sparks call to cyclone-proof homes as far south as northern NSW” – ABC.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-23/ex-tropical-cyclone-alfred-weather-preparation-storm-resilience/105074460
Here, I predict what will happen next. Nothing. The story will sink without a trace. The powers that be will do nothing. We will keep wasting our government spending on sporting stadiums, extravaganzas and subsidising big business to sell fossil fuels and tourism destinations which require a lot a fossil fuel to get there. This is the level of self-destroying denial and idiocy that our society has reached. Climate Armageddon is bearing down on us rapidly and still nothing substantial is being done.
South-East Queensland’s infrastructural preparedness (as opposed to response preparedness) for a relatively weak tropical cyclone, in wind speed terms, was an F for fail. That’s the polite way of interpreting the F. It is true that the resulting tropical low was not weak in rain dumping power but lack of proper infrastructural preparedness still greatly exacerbated the ensuing problems.
Unless we get serious about re-directing our national spending, in a fundamental and far-reaching way, to the critical existential tasks at hand, we will suffer a comprehensive collapse as a society and nation and people will suffer en masse. All our current discretionary spending on the Olympics, on subsidising big business, sport, tourism, fossil fuels, negative gearing (a Federal only issue) and the absurd level of cultural extravaganzas (the circuses of panem et circenses), must be re-directed. It must be re-directed to climate change prevention, amelioration and infrastructural preparedness, to the social and human health requirements of all and to general economic and ecological sustainability. Without this change, we descend into decline, chaos and runaway collapse.
Well may China make and sell enough solar panels. That alone will not save us. It’s a necessary but not sufficient condition. Focusing on the sub-issues is not enough. What is needed is a whole of system appraisal and action. How can we make it happen?
Wonderful news!! Maybe the current US president will get jealous. If only.
Ikonoclast – “What is needed is a whole of system appraisal and action. How can we make it happen?“
It seems the Australian Government is in denial, and refuses to articulate ‘frankly terrifying’ security risks. And the media also downplay the existential risks.
Meanwhile, Professor Stefan Rahmstorf, Co-Head of Research Department on Earth System Analysis of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Professor of Physics of the Oceans at the University of Potsdam, posted on 24 Mar 2025:
What does +2 °C warming level mean?
The University of Exeter’s Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) published their report on 16 Jan 2025 titled Planetary Solvency–finding our balance with nature: Global risk management for human prosperity. The summary risk outlook and policy recommendations in their one-page summary of the full report, titled Planetary Solvency: Risks and Recommendations, included:
What does Catastrophic and Extreme mean?
Per Figure 12 in the IFoA full report:
Rating _ _ _ _ _ GDP loss _ Human mortality _ Climate
Extreme: _ _ _ _ ≥50% _ _ _ _ _ ≥50% _ _ _ _ _ +3 °C warming or more by 2050
Catastrophic: _ ≥25% _ _ _ _ _ ≥25% _ _ _ _ _ +2 °C warming or more by 2050
Decimation: _ _ ≥10% _ _ _ _ _ ≥10% _ _ _ _ _ Global warming limited to +2 °C by 2050
Severe: _ _ _ _ _ ≥5% _ _ _ _ _ _ ≥5% _ _ _ _ _ Global warming limited to +1.5 °C by 2050 following overshoot
Limited: _ _ _ _ ≥1% _ _ _ _ _ _ ≥1% _ _ _ _ _ _Global warming below +1.5°C by 2050, with limited overshoot
The IFoA report is suggesting without immediate policy action to change course, Catastrophic (i.e. ≥25% GDP loss and ≥25% human mortality) or Extreme (i.e. ≥50% GDP loss and ≥50% human mortality) impacts by year-2050 are eminently plausible.
Humanity is on a collision course towards a +3 °C GMST anomaly, or more; aworld beyond any past human experience. Large-scale depopulation would belikely. We’re on the road to “climate ruin.” James Hansen says we need a “miracle”.
What’s REQUIRED to avoid civilisation collapse?
The insurance companies keep raising insurance premiums towards unaffordable rates, or refuse to insure. And insurance companies generally will not insure for ‘actions of the sea.’