Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.
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John Quiggin 
Synchronised Mass Infection.
The powers that be told us it was “necessary and inevitable” to get infected with the new disease COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 pathogen) multiple times. They were wrong of course. How wrong? Well it turns out massively and disastrously wrong. Look at this new and highly disturbing data from the UK. This first post shows some graphs of admission data.
UK – Increase in the number of patients who had to wait 12 hours to be admitted after the decision to admit them to hospital had been made.
Pre-pandemic.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GpoNu5pWYAA7pSL?format=png&name=large
Emergency Phase.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GpoORBQXkAAWVTZ?format=png&name=large
Rampant Spread.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GpoPvY2XUAEyItd?format=jpg&name=4096×4096
Note 1: You may have to scroll the image down to get an idea of the scale of what is happening.
Note 2: This post is a bit of an experiment. I hope these images display for people
Note 3: If this post displays correctly, another and more disturbing post will follow.
In the post election washup, I thought it a loss to the body politic that Bridget Archer lost her seat – she crossed then floor many times and was a lone voice against Lib nuttiness. She lost her seat by a big swing to the ALP, which means what exactly? What lessons can be distilled from this result? How exactly does the electoral mind work?
More unanswerable questions next week.
The data in the previous post and in this post are from tern on Threadreader and X.
Synchronised Mass Infection – Part 2.
“A lot of people have noticed it. In the past few years, a bunch of different infections in England have started moving together. Spikes, dips, rising and falling in sync.” – tern.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GqCjCiyWcAAmoFK?format=jpg&name=4096×4096
“This is how much correlation there was among these listed diseases *before* Covid arrived. This shows the correlation (or lack thereof) during the period 1/1/2016 to 1/3/2020.” – tern.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GqCoCkEWAAAqPRV?format=jpg&name=4096×4096
Note: the above is a “Heat Map” graph with a correlation scale.
“Run your finger down the left side to pick an infection… like Measles… and then go right to pick something to see whether its spread correlates with that condition… like Hepatitis E. Before Covid arrived, their correlation was +0.07. This means there’s no significant matching pattern. It’s coloured kind of light brown. Blue means two diseases are perfectly out of sync and red means it’s perfectly in sync. The darker blue, the more precisely A is up when B is down and vice versa. The darker red, the more precisely A is up when B is up, and A is down when B is down.
Things were a bit all over the place before Covid. Some disease waves were completely out of sync. Some were completely in sync. And some things were not synced or “anti-synced”. Remember, these are *annual* rolling totals, so this isn’t about time of year, it’s about yearly trends.” – tern.
“How do things change when Covid arrives…
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GqCv97JWcAArImt?format=jpg&name=4096×4096
“How concerning is this overall?
Hep C and the two Clostridia stand out as outliers. Hep C has hardly any correlation with the rest of them. The same goes for Clostridium Perfringens. And Clostridium Tetani goes negative across the board.
But the rest!!! The Pearson correlation after Covid arrived is 0.79. This is a huge change.
Let’s just work through the mechanisms:
Covid can damage the immune system’s command centre, especially T cells, making it harder to recognise and clear new infections. That gets exploited by respiratory viruses (RSV, flu, rhinovirus), Hepatitis B (reactivation or flare-ups), Polyomaviruses (which are normally controlled by strong T-cell responses). And possibly tuberculosis in some individuals.
Covid damages the thin linings that protect your intestines and lungs. These are frontline defences against pathogens. This damage can be exploited by gut infections like E. coli O157, Shigella, Campylobacter and lung infections like Legionella, Pseudomonas, Streptococcus pneumoniae.
Long-term immune activation after Covid can throw the whole system off balance, sometimes overreacting, sometimes underperforming.
Listeria and other intracellular bacteria can hide better during immune confusion, and auto-inflammatory flares may also obscure or worsen response to real pathogens.
Covid infection can wake up viruses that were hiding in the body, often kept in check by a healthy immune system. This can be exploited by:
– Polyomaviruses
– Possibly hepatitis B
– EBV (glandular fever/mono/Epstein Barr, Cytomegalovirus, HHV-6/7, VZV (shingles) and maybe even rare cases of measles SSPE.
Covid reduces ‘secretory IgA’, your local antibody defence on mucosal surfaces like the nose, throat, lungs, and gut. Covid makes you more vulnerable to *many* bacterial infections. Covid makes you more vulnerable to some fungal infections. Covid makes you more vulnerable to many viral infections. Covid infections damage your immune system and since this is your main defence against infection, then you’re more vulnerable to almost everything that “wants” to infect you.” – tern
The heat map graphs look conclusive. They paint an extensive and comprehensive picture of what is happening. A new phenomenon of synchronised mass infections of the population by a whole mass of different infections all conducted and co-ordinated by Covid-19.
This is what the “live with Covid” mass infectionists have bequeathed to the human race. Synchronised mass infections from a large mass of different diseases. No wonder hospitals and health systems are not coping. No wonder life expectancy is falling. My prediction? This is going to get a lot worse yet. This is unless there is a complete change in infection control procedures around the world and we start trying to properly control and eradicate Covid-19 and all the diseases now riding piggy-back with it. But there is no sign of this happening yet. Governments, businesses and most of the population are still in complete denial about what is happening.
China transition update
We now have the official Q1 2025 numbers. Some key y.o.y. changes from Q1 2024, physical units apart from GDP:
Thermal generation -4.31%
Electricity total +1.58%
Coal +9.17% WTF?
Natural gas +4.30% (not a big deal in China)
Gasoline -6.54%
Pig Iron +1.24%
Cement -2.47%
GDP at constant prices +5.42%
This confirms what JQ and I have been telling you. Coal consumption in China is falling, not spectacularly but significantly. The drop comes from a tidal wave of renewables. and it is structural not noise. The increase in mined coal is bizarre: a large market or planning failure. The increase isn’t being burnt. The mining companies may be cashing in on high prices they expect to see coming down. Notice how the switch away from gasoline to electric traction does not lead to an big increase in demand for electricity. That’s because electric motors are five times as efficient as internal combustion ones.
If you want to cast doubt on the miraculously on-target GDP numbers, be my guest. If Goodhart’s Law applies and the statisticians are being ordered to falsify the indicator, the simplest and reputationally least damaging way to do this is to tinker with the GDP price deflator, not rework hundreds of physical data series. The stagnant numbers for electricity, cement, and pig iron suggest an economy still struggling with the metamorphosis from the industrial to the post-industrial model. The CCP and MAGA share an obsolete fixation on making stuff with machines that go whump. At least the Chinese are also betting on the future, with high-speed rail, renewables, AI and so on. They are even toying with child care subsidies: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/china-encourages-babymaking-with-free-milk-childcare-subsidies-2025-03-18/. They might even rediscover Bismarck’s state old-age pension (1889).
Rational Argentine policy initiative
The Argentines had help on this one from less surprising Australians, Swedes, and Uruguayans. Still, it’s nice to report something positive from the country that isn’t about football or penguins. The news is a really big electric ferry, nearly completed in Hobart by INCAT. https://cleantechnica.com/2025/05/05/china-zorrilla-how-the-worlds-largest-electric-ferry-changes-maritime-electrification/
The vessel, named after the film star China Zorrilla (sic), will ply,a nearly 200 km route across the River Plate estuary from Buenos Aires to Montevideo. There are a number of electric ferries in operation in Nordic waters, but China Zorrilla is much bigger: 130 meters in length, twin hulls, 2,100 passengers and approximately 225 cars per crossing, 40 MWh of battery recharging at around 2 MW. The largest conventional ferries on the Dover-Calais route are bigger, at 230m, but the gap is narrowing.
INCAT claim the investment is commercially viable without subsidy, the lower fuel costs offsetting the higher initial price. If that’s so, we can expect quite rapid worldwide adoption. Apart from the USA where the protectionist Jones Act has efficiently killed off civilian shipbuilding. They won’t even be able to electrify barges on the Mississippi, while China already has electric container ships on the Yangtze.
Here she is, all glammed up like an oligarch’s superyacht and ready to tango: https://www.visionmaritima.com.uy/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/chinazo.jpg
The increase in China coal could be linked to steel making, not thermal power (-4.3%) and a build up of inventories. Gasoline (-6.54%) has to be the increase in EVs. Sales in EVs in China is expected to be 2.51% pa from 2025 to 2029 and their export production is also ramping up. In parts of China EVs have a green number plate, ICE is blue.
Twiggy Forest’s Fortescue mine plans to be entirely electric, Pilbara net zero. Not only their mining machinery, they also intend to use their own green hydrogen to process ore into pellets – a win-win for Fortescue as there is a big market for “green ore” and shipping costs would be reduced.
The China Zorillo is not quite ready to tango yet.
https://maritime-executive.com/article/world-s-largest-battery-electric-ship-launched-by-incat
“Work will now continue completing the vessel’s interior, which includes a 2,300 square meter duty-free retail deck – the largest shopping space on any ferry in the world. Final fit-out, battery installation, and energy system integration will take place ahead of sea trials later this year on the River Derwent.”
More broadly, there are many dangers with Lithium-ion batteries and standards and procedures have not been properly developed to deal with these dangers. Having said that, industrial standards might be high enough but it is clear that some amanufacture and most domestic handling of lithium-ion batteries and other batteries leaves a lot to be desired.
https://www.tuvsud.com/en-us/resource-centre/stories/lithium-ion-battery-fires-myth-vs-reality
Lithium-ion battery fires are becoming a significant concern.
https://blog.storemasta.com.au/firefighters-battle-growing-lithium-battery-crisis
https://acor.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/240603-ACOR-battery-fire-survey-summary.pdf
“It is estimated there are between 10,000 and 12,000 battery-related fires a year across waste and recycling streams in Australia.”
The pell-mell introduction of Lithium-ion batteries and other technologies under neoliberalism has been seriously flawed. Fault does not necessarily lie with the fundamental technology per se, though I suspect there may yet prove to be some insuperable barriers even there as the scale-up continues. Fault definitely lies with the implementation of Lithium-ion batteries under standard neoliberal capitalism. They were rushed in without adequate care for safety and life-cycle issues.
Basically, neoliberal capitalism is still in complete control of our economies and it cannot and will not do anything right from a sustainability perspective. Every new technology is mis-used and mis-applied in a pell-mell rush for profits without any real concern for safety and sustainability. The concern is pretence.
This does not mean I am pro-ICE. I am simply stating that I don’t trust the current economic system to do anything right without much stronger regulation, safety standards and re-cycling standards. There also has to be a re-education of the gormless public to properly understand a circular economy and the very real hazards of new technologies. However, my prediction is none of that will happen.
Roger_f: “The increase in China coal could be linked to steel making ..”
No. I picked the pig iron indicator because it’s the one stage in steelmaking that needs coal. Electric arc furnaces and rolling mills just run on electricity. Pig iron only grew by a trivial 1.24% so it’s not the explanation for the growth in mined coal.
Iko: Ok, the China Zorilla is not quite ready to tango. I did say she was named after a Uruguayan film star, director and national treasure. Dates can expect to be kept waiting a bit for their dance.
,
Good news yet again!! Thank you!
I’m not sure I knew this, and can’t wait to lease one of those little evs some day: “That’s because electric motors are five times as efficient as internal combustion ones.”
And, wow that is a big boat. Bon voyage!
I mentioned EV and electrical economy efficiency quite some time ago on this blog and more than once. But then I was not the first person to note this. I simply was following the science and engineering at that time, as well. With EVs I thought the effective efficiency ratio at point of use was more four times than five times but I could be wrong. Add in transmission efficiency vs truck haulage of refined product to point of sale and that may become 5 times more efficient overall for electric vehicles: if we call energy use in manufacturing a dead heat. I don’t know the details.
I think concerns about lithium ion battery safety and life cycle are non-trivial. But then concerns about fossil fuel safety, life cycle and emissions are even more non-trivial. Nonetheless, this is no excuse for the shoddy neoliberal implementation of lithium ion batteries and the lack of government planning for safety and regulation for life-cycle. These oversights could seriously undermine the advantages of the transition or even throw them away. I believe the situation is that serious.
Iko: the number of lithium battery fires reported by the waste disposal industryis indeed alarming – but it won’t include many car batteries.Their working voltage at pack level is over 400 volts at high amps. You cannot, if you are sane, replace these at home and chuck the old ones in the general waste. You can very easily kill yourself and/or invalidate the guarantee. There are too few old EVs being scrapped to be noticeable yet and they are probably all returned to dealers as trade-ins. Lead-acid car batteries are something like 90% recycled for the valuable lead, with a small payment to the customer; why should things work out any different for lithium ones using much more of the metal?
In Spain, recycling points for small user-replaceable batteries are ubiquitous. Is this not the case in Australia?
James,
Recycling of small user-replaceable batteries in Australia has been very poor. In 2021, only 10% of Australia’s lithium battery waste was recycled. I doubt it is any better now. The lack of new data, on a basic search on the Internet, seems to suggest that little has changed. Recycling points for small user batteries are not ubiquitous. It’s far from it. As usual, as in many things environmental, Australia is very backward. Perhaps I fall into the trap of judging the world by Australia.
As to EVs, I personally doubt the industry anywhere in the world is ready to recycle the batteries (packs) that will come online in future. This article below suggests everything will be under control, more or less just in time.
https://chargelab.co/blog/ev-battery-recycling
You know what? I don’t believe it. It will become a burgeoning mess that will end up out of control. I have zero faith in this world system (late stage neoliberal capitalism) to address anything serious, anything at all. It’s all upfront propaganda, techno-optimism and the shovelling off of negative externality problems into the never-never. I cannot think of one major issue we (the world) have addressed properly since 2000 (to pick a date). It’s all about making money now and kicking the can down the road. None of what we are doing now is remotely sustainable. I personally don’t expect the EV life-cycle issue to be any different from everything else. Past behaviour is the best guide to future behaviour. This is as true of systems as it is of individuals.
Well … but I thought we were doing better on methane? No? Maybe it was the ozone layer I was thinking of. I don’t think alllll the news is bad.
Of course, given the news lately, I can see how one might become … discouraged.
However, I do think one benefit of all this new media is that we can see ourselves in a way we didn’t before. We are very far from perfect, but in fact, I do think “we,” or at least a few of us, somewhere tucked away, perhaps at a uni, are thinking about battery recycling.
Especially if there’s going to be any money in it. All I see in the paper is how there are these rare precious minerals. And, certainly, people’s catalytic converters are getting stolen here all the time! (Does that cheer us up, just a little? No? Hey I tried.) Just the other day, an enterprising thief towed the car first. An innovator.
Right now, here, battery recycling is considered extremely dirty, and the last one was I think recently just hounded out of LA county. (Someone went and built housing near it. Oops.)
But there must be a way to do it cleanly. There has to be.
As for recycling facilities, I will have to pay more attention. I do think several of your main retailers do accept batteries. I do not know if they take all kinds. I myself have on my To Do list to try to figure out who, if anyone, takes in plastic wrappings. I don’t cook much, I am awash in plastic film. Where to put it? Meanwhile, for actual “hazardous” waste, I have to drive 20 minutes to a center, usually on a weekend, between like 10 and 3. I think it’s absurd that they make it so difficult. Still, better than nothing. Over here, there is an ongoing scandal to do with recycling – apparently, it doesn’t actually happen much. Yet.
“this is no excuse for the shoddy neoliberal implementation of lithium ion batteries..”
This is just so much nonsense.
Lithium iron phosphate batteries are considered to be the safest form of energy storage utilities; lithium phosphate cells are incombustible.
How is this a neoliberal thing? – renewables are proving to be the cheapest source of energy, which is why capital finds it so attractive. Money is driving the decarbonisation of our economy.
Iko: apologies, I was wrong on scrapped EV batteries. There have been fires. In fact working EV batteries are never turned off. They are always connected to their thermal management system and draw down their own power if needed to stay within the safe operating range. Disconnected from this, they are dangerous in very hot or very cold weather, and should be professionally dismantled immediately or stored in a climate-controlled environment.
It is a very common claim that lithium phosphate cells are incombustible. This claim is misleading and a play on words.
“Will lithium iron phosphate batteries catch fire?
LiFePO4 batteries are considered to be safer than other lithium batteries because they have a very stable chemistry and a very low rate of thermal runaway. The iron phosphate-oxide bond is stronger than the cobalt-oxide bond, so when the battery is overcharged or subject to physical damage, the phosphate-oxide bond remains structurally stable, whereas in other lithium chemistries, the bonds begin breaking down and releasing excessive heat, which eventually leads to thermal runaway. Lithium phosphate cells are incombustible, which is an important feature in the event of mishandling during charging or discharging.
However, it’s important to note that lithium iron phosphate lifepo4 can still catch fire if they are not installed or used properly. In general, LiFePO4 batteries do not explode or ignite, but they are not absolute and can be dangerous in some extreme cases. Signs of thermal runaway in lifepo4 lithium battery include increased temperature, smoke or fumes, swelling or deformation, leakage, and fire or explosion. It’s recommended to follow the manufacturer’s instructions and safety guidelines when installing and using LiFePO4 batteries to ensure that they are safe and reliable.” – Lithium Storage dot com.
https://www.lithiumstoragebattery.com/resources/can-lifepo4-batteries-catch-fire.html
The copy above says both:
“Lithium phosphate cells are incombustible” and
“However, it’s important to note that lithium iron phosphate lifepo4 can still catch fire if they are not installed or used properly.”
This is clearly double-speak. Why it is a dishonest lie is clear and obvious. It contradicts both itself and empirical reality. The lie is built around the ambiguous meaning of “incombustible” in common usage. In common usage “incombustible” can mean completely incombustible or it can mean not easily combustible.
“Incombustible means something that is incapable of being burned or is fireproof. It refers to materials that do not ignite or catch fire easily.” – Merriam Webster.
“Easily” is clearly a qualitative, not a scientific term. People (like neoliberals) who want to make spurious cases often use imprecise, qualitative and relative terms.
For something as serious as proper, scientifically informed fire safety, precise and scientific terms ought to be used. The NFSA’s (National Fire Sprinkler Association) definitions are better but still not strictly and fully scientific:
“The “Combustibles”
There are three terms used to describe the combustibility of materials used for building construction, furnishings, finishes, decorations, and furniture: combustible, noncombustible, and limited combustible.
Contrary to the above, steel or iron, for example, will combust under the right conditions. For example, iron filings can burn. This all comes in turn to the definition(s) of “combustion” versus “oxidation”. I won’t go into that here.
Let us go back to the above definition, “Noncombustible means that the material will not ignite, burn, or release flammable vapors when exposed to fire or heat.” Perhaps shock, impact and electric current causing heat or spark should be added to that.
LiFePO4 batteries clearly can burn and release very dangerous fumes under certain tests, accidents and conditions.
It is deplorable that this fellow below used no safety procedures or safety equipment for this test and we do not see absolute proof this *was” a LiFePO4 battery, but it does look concerning:
There are clearly conceivable accident and mishap conditions where LiFePO4 batteries can become significantly dangerous and parts can combust and give off voluminous fumes. This is not in itself an argument against their manufacture and use under properly controlled conditions. The question is this. Will the imperative for money making trump the imperatives for safe manufacture and safe use under neoliberal (market fundamentalist) conditions? I think the answer will be yes, unfortunately, without a continuance and improvement of strong government implemented environmental and consumer safety regulations (which situation then is not strictly or purely neoliberal).
When construction regulation was privatised the rules were up for grabs.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-09/building-commissioner-oversee-home-remediation/105271850
Roger_f,
You are correct. Excessive privatisation, which was part and parcel of neoliberalism, has done extreme damage to our economy and society. It is the main reason we cannot deal with our crises re climate change, housing, health, welfare and education, to name the main issues. If privatisation is not reversed, back to public ownership and proper democratic governmental control and regulation, we will collapse. This is unlikely to happen now so most likely we face collapse, nationally and globally.