Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.
I’m now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here.
John Quiggin 
Claire Berlinski has been looking at how Musk and his Grok AI thing have evolved
https://substack.com/home/post/p-168632084?selection=d95ae6c8-0ce6-4a4b-826c-1e3c6f78af50
Russian gasoline (not)
If you are looking for cheering biased news from Ukraine, it is easy to find enthusiastic warbloggers saying that the home front in Russia is about to collapse, from inflation, gasoline shortages, cities without water, others without police, falling recruitment to the army, and so on. I agree that Putin’s fragile Bonapartist illusion Russia will collapse sooner or later. I used to think sooner, but was wrong about the capacity of Russians for suffering pointlessly. The warbloggers may be too optimistic but they are not living a fantasy. Ordinary Russians are quite ready to record videos of queues at ever more expensive gas stations, stranded passengers at airports, and oil refineries in flames. The police do not stop them from posting the videos on Telegram. The government line is not that the fires don’t exist but they are minor affairs caused by “falling debris” from shot-down drones.
The “falling debris” has been getting spikier. Ukraine has been hitting oil refineries with drones for a while, but suspended the attacks to humour Trump while he still thought he could bluff Putin into a ceasefire. This delusion has gone, and the Ukrainians have started up again. They seem to be using heavier drones or greater numbers, and the fires seem to last longer. https://youtu.be/iXGGimWQKaE
The attacks have pointedly included the oil pipeline to Western Europe, on which Slovakia and Hungary rely heavily, the big LNG port on the Baltic at Ust-Luga, which still incredibly exports by tanker to the EU, and the two-way gas pipeline network to Central Asia, where Russia’s hold over the Stans is steadily fraying. Ukraine is clearly ready to face the political fallout, and probably welcomes it. The new all-Ukrainian ”Flamingo” cruise missile, now in series production, has a claimed range of 3,000 km and a massive 1,150 kg bunker-busting warhead – perhaps not both at the same time, but still impressive. The videos will get more spectacular and the shutdowns for repairs and gasoline queues longer.
There is one wrinkle I haven’t seen discussed. My warblogger says plausibly that Russian refineries were built with Western technology, and need steady supplies of new equipment, spares and catalysts. Since sanctions were imposed in 2022, they have been forced to rely on China for inferior substitutes. This lit up a small energy-efficient bulb in my brain. Chinese demand for gasoline is falling steadily by 5% a year – and more for diesel – on the back of a coherent industrial policy favouring a rapid transition to electric cars, trucks, and heating/cooling for buildings. Xi may dither as between coal and renewables for electricity, but EVs beating out oil for transport is settled policy. China will keep its refineries going during the phaseout, but surely will not invest in innovation in a dying industry just to bail out Putin. Renewables are rewriting geopolitics, often in a good way.
Good news from Africa
Reputable think tank Ember, via PVMagazine:
“The number of solar modules shipped from China to Africa increased by 60% in the 12 months to June 2025, according to new analysis from Ember. The think tank recorded 15 GW of Chinese PV imports for the period, up from 9.3 GW the previous year.”
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2025/08/27/african-pv-imports-from-china-up-60-in-one-year-says-ember/
This looks to me closer to the Pakistani model than the Indian: not the competent execution of rational national policies, held back by corruption and vested interests, but a chaotic mass protest against failed government. What the Pakistanis have shown is that solar has much lower demands on skilled installation labour than anybody thought. The unpermitted panels are being put up at scale by semiskilled handymen using their native wits, chatbots and whatever IKEA-type instructions the Chinese suppliers put in the box. I doubt if the Nigerian government has much control over installations in villages or Lagos slums. The grid operators should not complain: DIY microgrids expand demand for electricity and make grid extensions more economic.
If you don’t believe me, take a look at the mobile telephone market in Somalia, which by most standards does not have a working government. But you can get mobile phones without difficulty, because warlords depend on them too.
Wonderful news again, James – thank you!!!!
I could use the cheering up. (Well, because I am intellectually lazy, that is. My brain isn’t EE!) I am trying to help a friend figure out Hvac. Anyway.
Am I wrong in suspecting that these things are easier in Europe and Australia? The salespeople seem nice enough but with the amount of questions I have, which is dozens, probably each requiring a long explanation, I feel too guilty to impose it on any one of them, when no choice of servicer has been made. And, what you can get on the web is – well, you know. I am asking around to see if there are any consultants who do this.
Mind you, I realize I shouldn’t complain. (Or, should I? I can’t be the only one…) (Maybe I complain to the wrong people. Hmm.)
Still, thank you for the good news! Hope is alive!
Pakistan is a surprising success story, and it’s great to see the same happening in Africa