The thylacine in the headline is the long sought and now extinct, budget surplus. My latest in Inside Story.
Author: John Quiggin
Monday Message Board
Back again with another Monday Message Board.
Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. If you would like to receive my (hopefully) regular email news, please sign up using the following link
http://eepurl.com/dAv6sX You can also follow me on Twitter @JohnQuiggin, at my Facebook public page and at my Economics in Two Lessons page
My comprehensive plan for US policy on the Middle East …
… is set out over the fold. I’m confident readers who take a little time to think about it will realise it’s far superior to existing policy, and to any alternative proposed so far. (Previously posted at Crooked Timber in 2011)
The budget should have been a road to Australia’s low-emissions future
. Instead, it’s a flight of fancy. That’s the tile of my latest piece in The Conversation. Read there, comment here.
Email news
Here’s my latest email news.
Two problems with Modern Monetary Theory
I spend quite a bit of time (more than I should) engaged in Twitter debates with advocates of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Some are generally sensible, while others are convinced they have learned a deep secret which enables us to have whatever we want without paying for it. Unfortunately, the sensible ones (Meaningful Monetary Theory) don’t do the hard work of correcting the others (Magical Monetary Theory)
A couple of tweets referring to the latter group (followed by the usual long and confused set of responses)
A striking feature of #MMT discussion is that it starts from a presumption of failure. Always supposed to be lots of unemployed resources that can be mobilised by fiscal policy .
When MMT advocates (or anyone else) start suggesting rationing and forced saving are preferable/sensible alternatives to taxation, I don’t think it’s unfair to call them anti-tax. These are really bad ideas, and should be repudiated.
Feel free to add your thoughts
MS Brissie to the Bay Appeal
Once again, I’m trying to combine exercise and fundraising, in this case for the MS Brissie to the Bay Appeal.
Please donate to help me raise $2500 for multiple sclerosis research and help for patients and their families .I’m running a marathon in June, so I’m going to go with virtual fundraising, instead of taking part in the physical ride. My aim will be to run 300km and cycle 500km over May and June, and to raise $2500. Feel free to suggest challenges I could undertake to encourage donations.
Getting back to blogging
I sent a (very rough) draft manuscript of The Economic Consequences of the Pandemic off to Yale University Press last week. Still a lot of work to be done, but I’ll have a bit more spare time now. So, I’m hoping to get a bit more blogging done.
Monday Message Board
Back again with another Monday Message Board.
Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. If you would like to receive my (hopefully) regular email news, please sign up using the following link
http://eepurl.com/dAv6sX You can also follow me on Twitter @JohnQuiggin, at my Facebook public page and at my Economics in Two Lessons page
Adani and the grief to income ratio (from my newsletter)
Adani (now ludicrously renamed Bravus) is pushing ahead with the Carmichael mine-rail-port project, but the financial and reputational costs keep mounting. Having been forced to finance the mine and rail project out of its own funds, Adani is now finding that its Adani Ports business (of which the Abbot Point coal terminal is only a small part) is becoming equally toxic. PIMCO, once its biggest bondholder announced that it would no longer invest in new bond issues. At the same time, S&P reversed a decision to include Adani Ports in its sustainability index because of investments in Myanmar – without the continuous focus of critics, this investment might have escaped notice.
The name changes under which Adani Mining became Bravus and Adani Abbot Point became North Queensland Export Terminal is an indication of the toxicity of these projects.
The continuing struggle against Adani may not stop coal being shipped from the mine, but it will sooner or later make the project a stranded asset, ensuring that most of Adani’s investment is lost.
The bigger picture is that Adani has greatly increased the “grief to income ratio” of investments in any part of the coal production chain. Financiers and suppliers who have agreed, under pressure, to withdraw support from Adani, have realised that they are better off getting out of coal altogether, and are starting to draw the same conclusion about gas.
A recent example is the decision of US insurer Liberty to abandon a proposed mine at Baralaba in Queensland. Liberty had already agreed, under intense pressure, not to insure Adani, and this step was a logical consequence
This pattern is not unique to Australia. The struggle to stop the proposed Vung Anh 2 coal-fired power station in North Vietnam hasn’t yet succeeded. But companies like Mitsubishi involved in Vung Anh 2 have dumped projects that haven’t yet started and promised to withdraw from coal altogether. . The Hunutlu coal plant in Turkey, funded by China’s Belt and Road initiative, looks like being the last such venture.
More grief, less income. That’s the future for anyone involved in coal.
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John
John Quiggin 