I’m looking forward to the release of the government’s Employment White Paper with a mixture of hope and trepidation. The fact that the title was changed from the original “Full Employment” is not encouraging, nor is the general track record of this government. On the other hand, in setting the scene for the release, Treasurer Jim Chalmers has indicated that the government will commit itself to five main objectives

sustained and inclusive full employment; job security and strong, sustainable wage growth; reigniting productivity growth; filling skills needs and building the future workforce; and overcoming barriers to employment and broadening opportunity.

It’s hard to see how the first objective can be reconciled with the fact that the Reserve Bank remains committed to a NAIRU model in which the full employment goal is subordinated to an inflation target, and that its current policies are aimed at pushing unemployment even higher than the NAIRU level.

I’ve written a piece for The Conversation explaining why the NAIRU model isn’t supported by economic experience, except for a single inflationary episode in the 1970s.

Still only September, the country is burning and Australia’s disgrace is on world display. Unlike Morrison and Turnbull, who had to placate the denialists on their own side, #Albanese and Plibersek are choosing #climate destruction against the wishes of their supporters and voters https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-20/australia-called-to-ramp-up-climate-ambitions-nyt-ad/102876940

That was my suggested headline for my latest opinion piece, which ran in Australian online magazine Crikey under the sub-editors (blander IMO) choice of “We don’t need a nuclear renaissance. We need a solid plan on renewables”

The idea of the piece was to respond to Exhibit A in the case for nuclear power, the successful French construction program of the 1970s and 1980s, under the Messmer Plan. I’ve previously written about the way this program depended on the power of the French state at the time, which can’t easily be replicated today. A little while ago, I was suddenly struck by the thought that the Messmer Plan would have been much more effective if it were applied to solar and wind energy rather than nuclear.

The #HAFF was Albanese #Labor’s biggest single program, spending $500 million a year. The Greens extracted $3 billion more over (I think) 3 years, tripling the size of the program #auspol

One of the iconic moments in Australian sport occurred in at the 2002 Winter Olympics. Australians are strong in most summer sports, but we don’t have much in the way of a winter, so it was considered quite an achievement for Steven Bradbury to make the finals of the speed skating event. He was given little chance of winning, and was trailing the pack until the final seconds, when all four skaters ahead of him crashed spectacularly. Bradbury cruised past them to claim the gold medal, one of only six in Australia’s winter olympics history.

It strikes me that this is a metaphor for the current position of the EU. It’s long been regarded as an also-ran in the global economy, and geopolitics, trailing behind the US, China and Russia. And (at least 52 per cent of) the UK decided it could do much better outside. The EU has plenty of problems with the climate catastrophe, sluggish economic growth, the rise of the far-right and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

But compared to the crash of the others, it looks pretty good. It’s way ahead on decarbonization, has mostly recovered from the disaster of austerity, and has high living standards and (unlike the US) rising life expectancy. The far-right has had some wins, but nothing comparable to its takeover of the US Republican party. And Brexit has served as an awful warning to anyone contemplating leaving. The problem facing the EU now is how to deal with the queue of eager applicants.

Of course, prediction is difficult, especially about the future. The ECB could screw up again, and generate another long recession. The far-right could do better. On the other side of the coin, the Democrats could win convincingly enough in 2024 to put an end to the threat of Trumpism. But right now the EU seems to be dodging the worst of the global trainwreck.

My latest in Crikey

My latest in Inside Story

The Courier-Mail (no link) is running a #Brisbane airport propaganda line that a curfew would disrupt flights for a million people a year (8 flights per night*pax/flight*365). Using the same basis of calculation, and assuming 500k people under the flight path, they are disturbing about 100 million people a year. #auspol #greens #auspol