Oz Politics

Tipping time

John Quiggin13 Comments

I’ve been reminded by Blair Fairman (Labor by 6) in comments to the previous post, that I haven’t put up a post calling for election predictions. Actually I did do this right at the start of the campaign but that’s not much use. In the spirit of optimism, I’ll call for predictions to be posted in terms of Labor’s lead over the Coalition in seats (leaving independents and Greens out). The person who is closest will be congratulated (with wild applause if it’s Pete who predicted Labor by 20). Multiple winners are allowed.

Update The winner is Jack Strocchi, who predicted a net gain to the Liberals

13 thoughts on “Tipping time”

  2. More of the same. People will vote with their hip-pocket in the HoR and their sleeved-heart in the Senate.
    Howard will have roughly the same, probably higher, advantage in HoR seats now as he did in 2001, mainly owing to the property boom. The Coalition will go backwards in the Senate, as a protest from the luvvies.
    But Independent candidates and strong local members will do well and cause some upsets.
    The total Major Party primary vote will go up, in accordance with the Great Convergence hypothesis, from 80% (2001) to 85% (2004).

    I shall vote ALP in the HoR, with a second preference for the David King, the outspoken Monarchist. I am still tossing up whether to vote for the Greens or Family First in the Senate. I am leaning to the Greens as they will block the sale of Telstra.

  3. As I go off to vote in my marginal electorate, I’m (sadly) tipping el rodento to hold on, with a net loss of a couple of seats, no new independents.

  4. Jack Strocchi, in his blog comment entry, writes:

    “I shall vote ALP in the HoR, with a second preference for the David King, the outspoken Monarchist.”

    Is this the same person as Peter King (whom, for what it might be worth, I’d certainly support if I lived in his electorate)? If so, could King be indeed the Ted Mack of the early 21st century?

  5. the Libs by one because I want to see 1961 again.

    I am voting Green in Bennelong because Wendell wilkiw is a very good candidate and has run a superb campaign but it is the only time I will ever vote green.

    don’t know what I will do in the Senate

  6. I’m feeling good about a Labor win. The good news in the Morgan poll (aside from suggesting Nielsen is an outrider) is in the detail. ALP ahead by 50.5% in Lib/Nat marginals, ahead by 61% in its own marginals. Very high Green primary – at 9.5% with a 90% preference flow to Labor – at least 3 points higher than in the past. 4.5% to independents and others breaking to ALP by 53.5% – that category must include FF! The high Green vote explains the low Labor primary. The excellent news is that if Labor is ahead by anything like 61% (and I accept the sample is small but hopefully a trend has been picked), then Latham has gone down a treat with voters who were lukewarm to Labor last time, and Labor should not need to worry about losing any seats.

    This all sits well with anecdotal evidence – Ramsay’s report in the SMH about what internal party polling is saying – and the word in Brissie on the ground that the Libs have shifted resources out of Labor marginals and written off Moreton and Petrie to defend seats they thought that they had in the bag like Longman, Blair and Dickson.

    Expect good things out of Queensland for Labor tonight!

    Labor by 6.

  7. Ooops, my bad. I must have had the name of a noted politcal science professor in mind. It is Peter King. And yes, I shall be giving Peter King a higher preference than his, notoriously Republican, opponent.

    Mr King would be hoping to pick up some votes from monarchists antagonistic to Mr Turnbull as a former head of the Australian Republican Movement.

    Monarchism to cultural conservatives means the same as communism to economic statists – a kind of protest vote against modernity which has a place in our hearts but should not be taken too seriously.

  9. everyone else is doing it: labor by 6.

    incidentally, i’m heartened by honnor’s prediction. it’s nice to see that it’s not just labor true believers who think there could be an upset.

  10. I have a feeling Family First may not go as well as many believe they will. Maybe only one senate seat and they become the new One Nation.

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