Guy at Full Context went to hear Larry Summers talk about the US current account deficit. As he notes, Summers analysis was very similar to the one I presented here. Guy has some useful comments, and notes the following, attributed by Summers to Rudi Dornbusch
Things always happen later than you expect, but when they do happen they happen faster than you expect.
This may not be true of all things, but it is a pretty good description of the way unsustainable economic imbalances are resolved.